Sam Clayton
30 dime - BOS/NYY Under 9.5
While several people are calling for a offensive wake-up call tonight in the Bronx on national television, I'm definitely not discounting the fact that these two teams have combined for seven runs the past two games. The anemic Red Sox offense hasn't scored since Thursday night and they've plated only 12 runs their last five games. Boston is hitting .249 since June 30, Jason Bay is still M.I.A. and David Ortiz' power seems to have vanished in the midst of the latest doping rumors. In this highly coveted series, the under has cashed 7 of 12 times this season, but importantly, five of the last six times.
The calender now reads August and it's make-or-break time for postseason contenders. It's the time when experienced pitchers buckle down and contain the opposition. Outside of Thursday's Home Run Derby (with newly converted starter Joba Chamberlain and over-the-hill John Smoltz), the last two games have been pitching duels. Beckett, Burnett, Buchholz and Sabathia have brought their 'A' games to say the least and have risen to the occasion and met the challenge of shutting down their division rivals.
Two seasoned southpaws get the call tonight and the second half has been very kind to both Jon Lester (1-1, 3.46 ERA, 1.30 WHIP) and Andy Pettitte (1-1, 2.36 ERA, 1.01 WHIP). And throughout their repsective careers, they've each had great success against their enemy as Lester is 3-0 with a 3.43 ERA lifetime against the Yanks and Pettitte posts a career 16-9, 3.76 marker against the Sawx. Both these pitchers have been around the block and they are incredible students of the game. They rarely make mistakes and you know they've spent hours upon hours watching and studying film trying to develop game plans to get out their opposing hitters.
Low scoring affairs are nothing new to these two as the under has hit in 3 of 4 starts for Pettitte and 4 of 5 for Lester. Pettitte has thrown three one-run games his last four outings and Lester has allowed more than three runs only once his last his 12 starts. Also, six of the last eight Sunday Night Baseball broadcasts have sailed under the posted total as well. I'm extremely confident that Lester and Pettitte will be amped and ready to go tonight. Both are big game pitchers that aren't scared of the bright lights and I fully expect another low scoring contest given the added importance of tonight's game. These two starters have been here before and the ice water in their veins will come full circle on national television.
Play the UNDER.