Guaranteed Pick: John Ryan
Game: Orlando Magic at Boston Celtics May 17 2009 8:00PM
Prediction: Orlando Magic
Reason: Ai Simulator 15* graded play on Orlando as they face Boston in Game 7. Upset in the making based on the AiS projections. Orlando knows they are the better team and they are learning to finish high intensity playoff games. I believe too that blowing that 14 point lead with 5:49 left in the game (also caused a 10* graded play loss) will also serve to reinforce the team that they simply need to complete the full 48 minutes – as they did in Game 6. Orlando executed extremely well for the first 40 minutes and I fully expect them to be leading at half time. Orlando is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) versus good shooting teams making >=46% of their shots this season; 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) versus excellent 3 point shooting teams making >=39% of their attempts over the last 2 seasons; 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) versus good teams outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season; 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games after allowing 80 points or less over the last 3 seasons. Van Gundy is also a solid 37-18 ATS (+17.2 Units) versus good shooting teams making >=46% of their shots. Take Orlando.
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Houston as they face the Los Angeles Lakers in game 7. Just too many points here based on the AiS summary projections. AiS shows an 86% probability that Houston will lose this game by 12 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 47-25 since 1996. Play on dogs of 10 or more points after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half. Pau Gasol will have to have an enormous game in order for the Lakers to cover this big number. The Lakers did execute better in the 4th quarter of the last game, but still they have not solved the matchup issues that Houston has presented without a presence in the paint. Ther Lakers did scorch them by 40 points in Game 5, but that can only serve as a motivating force for Houston. Plus, one of the traits of professional athletes is having a short memory and being able to focus on the present situation. The pressure is all on the Lakers and Kobe and Houston can just let it fly – like they have been – and that style will make this game extremely close. Houston is also 33-18 ATS (+13.2 Units) versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Lakers are a weak 9-27 ATS (-20.7 Units) off a double digit loss as a favorite of 6 points or more since 1996. Lakers shot very poorly in the last game as well and there have been 8 games this season where they have shot under 40%. In the following game they are just 3-5 ATS. Take Houston.<!-- / message -->