Scott Rickenbach
1* (regular play) Houston Rockets (+) @ LA Lakers
At this point – Game Seven of a series – we’ve already “beaten to death” all the match-up issues, strategy issues, etc. Game Seven is truly a different “animal”. It’s one that needs addressed in a different fashion and where a play is heavily based on “situational value”. In this case, that value lies squarely with the Rockets! Yes, Houston lost by 40 in the last game here but that was truly an aberration. It was a game where everything that could wrong for the Rockets did go wrong while everything that could go right for the Lakers did go right. Now, no matter what the Lakers say, even when they apply themselves, like they purported to before Game Six on Thursday, they have proven that they can still be beaten. The Rockets have all the confidence in the world heading to Los Angeles for this game. Not only has Houston defeated the Lakers three times in this series, one of those wins did come in Los Angeles. That said, we knew we were going to get extreme value here with the Lakers getting a lot of public attention in “bounce back” mode. You see, there is a HUGE difference in terms of a Game Seven “bounce back” mode. The Lakers have not been in a bounce back situation in this series where, if they would have lost, they would be going home for the summer! That is now staring them squarely in the face! As for the Rockets, they weren’t even supposed to be here! They were not even supposed to take the Lakers to a seventh game! What does that mean for them? They come out loose and relaxed as they know nothing is expected of them in this match-up. As for the Lakers, they might still be confident but there is still a world of pressure on their shoulders in this match-up. They can say what they want but the Lakers know that – with any slippage in this game (a poor shooting effort from them, a hot shooting effort from the Rockets) they are suddenly staring elimination in the face. This is a massive amount of pressure to deal with. So, the Lakers may indeed “hang on” and win this game but for them to be asked to cover this massive point spread in a very tight, tense situation is absolutely asking too much! Grab the value here with the loose and truly “dangerous dog” Rockets! Play Houston plus the points as a regular selection
1* (regular play) Houston Rockets (+) @ LA Lakers
At this point – Game Seven of a series – we’ve already “beaten to death” all the match-up issues, strategy issues, etc. Game Seven is truly a different “animal”. It’s one that needs addressed in a different fashion and where a play is heavily based on “situational value”. In this case, that value lies squarely with the Rockets! Yes, Houston lost by 40 in the last game here but that was truly an aberration. It was a game where everything that could wrong for the Rockets did go wrong while everything that could go right for the Lakers did go right. Now, no matter what the Lakers say, even when they apply themselves, like they purported to before Game Six on Thursday, they have proven that they can still be beaten. The Rockets have all the confidence in the world heading to Los Angeles for this game. Not only has Houston defeated the Lakers three times in this series, one of those wins did come in Los Angeles. That said, we knew we were going to get extreme value here with the Lakers getting a lot of public attention in “bounce back” mode. You see, there is a HUGE difference in terms of a Game Seven “bounce back” mode. The Lakers have not been in a bounce back situation in this series where, if they would have lost, they would be going home for the summer! That is now staring them squarely in the face! As for the Rockets, they weren’t even supposed to be here! They were not even supposed to take the Lakers to a seventh game! What does that mean for them? They come out loose and relaxed as they know nothing is expected of them in this match-up. As for the Lakers, they might still be confident but there is still a world of pressure on their shoulders in this match-up. They can say what they want but the Lakers know that – with any slippage in this game (a poor shooting effort from them, a hot shooting effort from the Rockets) they are suddenly staring elimination in the face. This is a massive amount of pressure to deal with. So, the Lakers may indeed “hang on” and win this game but for them to be asked to cover this massive point spread in a very tight, tense situation is absolutely asking too much! Grab the value here with the loose and truly “dangerous dog” Rockets! Play Houston plus the points as a regular selection
Al DeMarco
Sunday's Play
5 Dime - Boston Celtics on the Money Line
Television, and the NBA's desire to maximize its viewing audience, has ultimately provided Boston with its biggest break -- literally and figuratively, perhaps -- of the postseason. Entering the Orlando series, the short-handed Celtics were mentally, emotionally and physically drained after their grueling seven-game duel to near-death with Chicago in the first round. Thus, it was no surprise they were beaten at home in Game One by the Magic and have been plagued by bouts of inconsistency throughout the series, including a collapse in the final seven minutes of Game Six on Thursday.
Go back to Game Four of the Chicago series. Since then, Boston has played 10 games on an every other day basis. That's 10 games in 20 days for an aging team missing its best player in Garnett and key reserve in Powe. Plus, factor in all the overtimes endured in the series with the Bulls, and that's even more floor time for the Celtics in that 20-day stretch. But now, thanks to television, they got the benefit of an extra day's rest and the nighttime slot since Kobe and the Lakers were deemed the more attractive afternoon match-up. That will be key for the tired legs of Paul Pierce, Rajon Rondo and Ray Allen, not to mention the banged-up shoulder of Kendrick Perkins.
Rondo, Allen and Eddie House coming off the bench hold an overwhelming edge in talent versus their Orlando counterparts. Pierce has more than held his own against Rashard Lewis in this series. And Perkins, despite a bothersome shoulder injury, has played aggressive defense against Dwight Howard and been a key factor as Boston has more than held its own on the boards in the series. In fact, the Celtics outrebounded Orlando in Games Five and Six.
Homecourt advantage and experience come into play tonight. The Celtics are 14-3 lifetime when hosting a Game Seven, and that includes three wins in the past year as they beat the Bulls in the first round earlier this month and the Hawks and Cavaliers in last season's playoffs. On the other hand, the Magic had an opportunity to wrestle control of this series in their last visit to Boston, but blew a late lead in Game Five and allowed Boston to steal a win.
Do I think the Celtics can cover as a 3-point favorite today? Yes, in fact I do. But, it makes no sense to play them versus the spread when I can instead take them on the moneyline instead at around -145 or -150. Think of it this way: -145 or -150 is about my personal maximum for making a baseball wager; this is no different. You might recall I used that philosophy for backing the Yankees on the road with C.C. Sabathia earlier this week instead of opting for New York as a Run Line release and it paid off with a win; same principle here. And with the bankroll I've accumulated thanks to the 18-5 roll, I can afford it.
Sunday's Play
5 Dime - Boston Celtics on the Money Line
Television, and the NBA's desire to maximize its viewing audience, has ultimately provided Boston with its biggest break -- literally and figuratively, perhaps -- of the postseason. Entering the Orlando series, the short-handed Celtics were mentally, emotionally and physically drained after their grueling seven-game duel to near-death with Chicago in the first round. Thus, it was no surprise they were beaten at home in Game One by the Magic and have been plagued by bouts of inconsistency throughout the series, including a collapse in the final seven minutes of Game Six on Thursday.
Go back to Game Four of the Chicago series. Since then, Boston has played 10 games on an every other day basis. That's 10 games in 20 days for an aging team missing its best player in Garnett and key reserve in Powe. Plus, factor in all the overtimes endured in the series with the Bulls, and that's even more floor time for the Celtics in that 20-day stretch. But now, thanks to television, they got the benefit of an extra day's rest and the nighttime slot since Kobe and the Lakers were deemed the more attractive afternoon match-up. That will be key for the tired legs of Paul Pierce, Rajon Rondo and Ray Allen, not to mention the banged-up shoulder of Kendrick Perkins.
Rondo, Allen and Eddie House coming off the bench hold an overwhelming edge in talent versus their Orlando counterparts. Pierce has more than held his own against Rashard Lewis in this series. And Perkins, despite a bothersome shoulder injury, has played aggressive defense against Dwight Howard and been a key factor as Boston has more than held its own on the boards in the series. In fact, the Celtics outrebounded Orlando in Games Five and Six.
Homecourt advantage and experience come into play tonight. The Celtics are 14-3 lifetime when hosting a Game Seven, and that includes three wins in the past year as they beat the Bulls in the first round earlier this month and the Hawks and Cavaliers in last season's playoffs. On the other hand, the Magic had an opportunity to wrestle control of this series in their last visit to Boston, but blew a late lead in Game Five and allowed Boston to steal a win.
Do I think the Celtics can cover as a 3-point favorite today? Yes, in fact I do. But, it makes no sense to play them versus the spread when I can instead take them on the moneyline instead at around -145 or -150. Think of it this way: -145 or -150 is about my personal maximum for making a baseball wager; this is no different. You might recall I used that philosophy for backing the Yankees on the road with C.C. Sabathia earlier this week instead of opting for New York as a Run Line release and it paid off with a win; same principle here. And with the bankroll I've accumulated thanks to the 18-5 roll, I can afford it.
Golden Contender late phone bases play-sunday
<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->On Sunday the mlb late phone play is on the K.C ROYALS.Game 976 at 2:10 eastern.KC fits ojne of the same system Arizona fit last night which pertains to there close loss last night.The Royals have L.Hochevar going today.In his home start vs the O/S last year he pitched decently allowing 4 runs on 5 hits over 7+ innings.The Royals also have a big bullpen edge as there home BP.ERA is 2.95 compared to Baltimores 5.75.For the O/S its Righty Uehara taking the hill today.In his road starts he has struggles with a 5.78 era allowing 12 runs on 19 hits in 18 innings.Look for KC to get a split of this 4 game series today. Take KC on Sunday.Bol GC-
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<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->On Sunday the mlb late phone play is on the K.C ROYALS.Game 976 at 2:10 eastern.KC fits ojne of the same system Arizona fit last night which pertains to there close loss last night.The Royals have L.Hochevar going today.In his home start vs the O/S last year he pitched decently allowing 4 runs on 5 hits over 7+ innings.The Royals also have a big bullpen edge as there home BP.ERA is 2.95 compared to Baltimores 5.75.For the O/S its Righty Uehara taking the hill today.In his road starts he has struggles with a 5.78 era allowing 12 runs on 19 hits in 18 innings.Look for KC to get a split of this 4 game series today. Take KC on Sunday.Bol GC-
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BeatYourBookie
Daily Premium Hoops & Hockey Winners for Sunday
NBA Basketball
100* Play Orlando (+2.5) over Boston (NBA)
Orlando is 14-6 ATS as an underdog this season
Orlando is 11-2 ATS in road games after allowing 80 points or less
Orlando is 29-18 ATS in all road games this season
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Other Hoops & Hockey Plays
50* Play Houston (+12.5) over Los Angeles (NBA)
50* Play Detroit (-200) over Chicago (NHL)
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Daily Premium Hoops & Hockey Winners for Sunday
NBA Basketball
100* Play Orlando (+2.5) over Boston (NBA)
Orlando is 14-6 ATS as an underdog this season
Orlando is 11-2 ATS in road games after allowing 80 points or less
Orlando is 29-18 ATS in all road games this season
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Other Hoops & Hockey Plays
50* Play Houston (+12.5) over Los Angeles (NBA)
50* Play Detroit (-200) over Chicago (NHL)
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Scott Delaney
Sunday ...
25 DIME CELTICS MONEYLINE - Homecourt advantage, experience, the extra day off ... the factors all come into play with this decision on the Celtics to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals. Think about it, this is a team that has now been in five straight Game 7s during the Eastern Conference playoffs the past two seasons. So with or without Kevin Garnett, you have a team loaded with talent, loaded with experience and loaded with momentum to win yet another decisive game.
I give Orlando all the credit in the world, but that's a young bunch with a coach who has made too many bad decisions during his career. I say career, cause I want to remind everyone that Stan Van Blunder was the coach of the Miami Heat when Pat Riley stepped in and led the Shaq-Wade combo to the NBA Title. With Van Gundy in place, the Heat wouldn't have made that run. Now you have Dwight Howard questioning his inability to coach in the clutch and you have questionable decisions that have left Orlando flapping in the wind.
Now, the upstart Magic and Van Gundy have to take on the defending champs on their own court, where they've already knocked off the Bulls in the first round in Game 7, and where they're 14-3 lifetime when hosting a Game Seven, including the two wins over the Hawks and Cavaliers in last season's playoffs. The Magic showed their vulnerability in Game 5, in which they had a chance to seize control of this series in Boston, yet blew a late lead and allowed the C's to steal the win.
So why the moneyline if everything is in the Celtics' favor? Honestly, I think they can probably cover the point spread, but there's value in this moneyline when we're not laying more than a buck and a half. If we're willing to make that wager with an ace pitcher, why wouldn't we do the same with the defending NBA champions on their own court to stay alive in the postseason?
Hey, we're up almost 200 Dimes in the postseason, so there's no reason we don't take a shot here and play the right side, in the right situation to simply win the basketball game. Common sense guys, it prevails most every time.
5 DIME REDS (WITH Arroyo) - Forget about Jake Peavy, we're backing Bronson Arroyo tonight, as he's looked good all season with a 5-2 mark. And before you mention his sky-high 7.02 ERA, take a look at the road performances: he's 4-0 with a stellar 2.86 ERA. It's a small shot here, compared to our moneyline play, but I like the Reds' chances. And if you are a Peavy fan, make note, he is 0-4 with a 4.50 ERA in his last five starts since beating the Mets back on April 16.
CONFIRMED AND PAID BY ME !!
GOOD LUCK
Sunday ...
25 DIME CELTICS MONEYLINE - Homecourt advantage, experience, the extra day off ... the factors all come into play with this decision on the Celtics to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals. Think about it, this is a team that has now been in five straight Game 7s during the Eastern Conference playoffs the past two seasons. So with or without Kevin Garnett, you have a team loaded with talent, loaded with experience and loaded with momentum to win yet another decisive game.
I give Orlando all the credit in the world, but that's a young bunch with a coach who has made too many bad decisions during his career. I say career, cause I want to remind everyone that Stan Van Blunder was the coach of the Miami Heat when Pat Riley stepped in and led the Shaq-Wade combo to the NBA Title. With Van Gundy in place, the Heat wouldn't have made that run. Now you have Dwight Howard questioning his inability to coach in the clutch and you have questionable decisions that have left Orlando flapping in the wind.
Now, the upstart Magic and Van Gundy have to take on the defending champs on their own court, where they've already knocked off the Bulls in the first round in Game 7, and where they're 14-3 lifetime when hosting a Game Seven, including the two wins over the Hawks and Cavaliers in last season's playoffs. The Magic showed their vulnerability in Game 5, in which they had a chance to seize control of this series in Boston, yet blew a late lead and allowed the C's to steal the win.
So why the moneyline if everything is in the Celtics' favor? Honestly, I think they can probably cover the point spread, but there's value in this moneyline when we're not laying more than a buck and a half. If we're willing to make that wager with an ace pitcher, why wouldn't we do the same with the defending NBA champions on their own court to stay alive in the postseason?
Hey, we're up almost 200 Dimes in the postseason, so there's no reason we don't take a shot here and play the right side, in the right situation to simply win the basketball game. Common sense guys, it prevails most every time.
5 DIME REDS (WITH Arroyo) - Forget about Jake Peavy, we're backing Bronson Arroyo tonight, as he's looked good all season with a 5-2 mark. And before you mention his sky-high 7.02 ERA, take a look at the road performances: he's 4-0 with a stellar 2.86 ERA. It's a small shot here, compared to our moneyline play, but I like the Reds' chances. And if you are a Peavy fan, make note, he is 0-4 with a 4.50 ERA in his last five starts since beating the Mets back on April 16.
CONFIRMED AND PAID BY ME !!
GOOD LUCK
