Joe Nelson
Portland at Houston
Play: Houston -4.5
The Rockets are up 2-1 in this series and this will be a critical game to put a damper in any hopes the young Blazers have. Portland is a pesky team that can make up points in a hurry but they have been overmatched in this series and were fortunate to win Game 2 at home. Houston completely dominated Game 3 despite the misleading final and the Portland cover. Houston led by 17 at one point and completely controlled the boards and points in the paint. Portland made ten 3-pointers to get back into the game but overall Houston’s match-up edges were overwhelming. The Blazers are an exciting team and in a different first round match-up the Blazers would be a threat in the Western Conference but the Rockets have the wing defenders to really cause problems to the offensive rhythm of the Blazers. Portland has tried to up the pace a bit but have not been very successful, losing badly in game one and having the Rockets stay right with them in game 2. Houston has dictated this series and despite a history of first round failures this should be the defining game for this Rockets group.
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Portland at Houston
Play: Houston -4.5
The Rockets are up 2-1 in this series and this will be a critical game to put a damper in any hopes the young Blazers have. Portland is a pesky team that can make up points in a hurry but they have been overmatched in this series and were fortunate to win Game 2 at home. Houston completely dominated Game 3 despite the misleading final and the Portland cover. Houston led by 17 at one point and completely controlled the boards and points in the paint. Portland made ten 3-pointers to get back into the game but overall Houston’s match-up edges were overwhelming. The Blazers are an exciting team and in a different first round match-up the Blazers would be a threat in the Western Conference but the Rockets have the wing defenders to really cause problems to the offensive rhythm of the Blazers. Portland has tried to up the pace a bit but have not been very successful, losing badly in game one and having the Rockets stay right with them in game 2. Houston has dictated this series and despite a history of first round failures this should be the defining game for this Rockets group.
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Jamie Tursini
Orlando at Philadelphia
Play: Philadelphia +4
Like I've stated many times throughout this NBA Postseason. When you get to this point a statistical analysis isn't necessarily the be all to end all. I think it's very clear that this Sixers team has talent and more importantly, heart.
Now my "Power Ratings" have Orlando as a 1.5 point favorite, and that's a huge difference here.
No reason to believe that this one doesn't come down to the last few minutes of the game. And to get + points with the home team is great value I'm not passing up on.
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Orlando at Philadelphia
Play: Philadelphia +4
Like I've stated many times throughout this NBA Postseason. When you get to this point a statistical analysis isn't necessarily the be all to end all. I think it's very clear that this Sixers team has talent and more importantly, heart.
Now my "Power Ratings" have Orlando as a 1.5 point favorite, and that's a huge difference here.
No reason to believe that this one doesn't come down to the last few minutes of the game. And to get + points with the home team is great value I'm not passing up on.
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1-Unit Play. Take #901 Philadelphia over Florida
1.5-Unit Play. Take #921 Toronto over Chicago White Sox
1.5-Unit Play. Take #906 Cincinnati over Atlanta
1-Unit Play. Take #919 Texas over Baltimore
Today's Totals
2.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 10.5 L.A. Dodgers at Colorado
1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 10.0 Philadelphia at Florida
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 9.5 Atlanta at Cincinnati
0.5-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 9.0 Toronto at Chicago White Sox
Larry Ness' Club-70 Play-MLB (24-8 or 75% situation since 2008)
My 15* Club-70 Play is on the LA Angels at 3:35 ET. The Angels won a ML-best 100 games last year, while the Mariners fell to 61-101 in 2008, after going 88-74 in 2007. However, while the Angels have struggled in the early going of 2009 at 6-11 (dealing with the tragic death of young pitcher Rick Adenhart, hasn't helped), the Mariners have experienced a re-birth under new manager Don Wakamatsu. After wins in the first two games of this three-game series in Anaheim, Seattle is 12-6, just one-half game behind Toronto for the AL's best record. The Mariners won only 26 games away from home last year but have now won six straight road games, giving them a 7-2 record away from Seattle to open the new season. The starters this afternoon will be the same ones who took the mound back on April 15, when the Mariners beat the Angels 11-3 in Seattle. Jarrod Washburn (former Angel) goes for Seattle and Jered Weaver will pitch for the Angels. Washburn, like his team, is experiencing a renaissance so far in 2009. Entering this year, his 18-6 (3.15) season of 2002 (Angels won World Series that year) had long been forgotten, as these last three years in Seattle have been a 'nightmare.' Washburn was 23-43 (4.55), with the Mariners going 37-52 in his 89 starts from 2006-08. However, he comes into this series finale 3-0 with a 1.71 ERA in three 2009 starts, searching for his first 4-0 start since his rookie season of 1998. Speaking of rookie seasons, Jered Weaver was a sensation in his rookie campaign of 2006, going 11-2 with a 2.56 ERA in 19 starts (team was 14-5). However, he's never quite been the same since. He went 13-7 in 28 starts in 2007 but his ERA climbed to 3.91 that season, while the team finished a more modest 16-12 in his 28 starts. His ERA rose again last year (to 4.33), as Weaver was 11-10 in 30 starts (LA was 15-15). He's 1-1 with a 3.38 ERA to open 2009 but pitched poorly in that April 15 game in Seattle, allowing 10 hits and four ERs in just five innings. However, I'm siding with the Angels in this one for a number of reasons. First of all, while the Mariners are off to an impressive start, they are NOT a better team than the Angels and LA should be able to regroup and avoid the home sweep. Also, let's NOT forget how poorly Washburn's pitched these last three years and let's not be too quick to conclude that he's turned into Sandy Koufax, after just three 2009 starts. I'll close with a focus on some key numbers. The Angels were superb vs left-handed starters in 2008, going 34-16 overall. In home day games against lefties, the Angels were a perfect 6-0 last year, averaging 7.0 RPG (this will be their first such situation this year). As for the Mariners, they were awful vs right-handers last year (40-70), a mark which included a poor 7-18 record in away day games, while scoring just 3.3 RPG. Yes, the Mariners look different early on in 2009 but let me note that they've faced just one right-hander this year in a day game. The Mariners won that game but only 1-0. Going back to the beginning of last year, the Angels are 6-0 vs left-handed starters in home day games, while going against the Mariners vs right-handed starters in road day games leaves one 18-8 (in that same time frame). That's a combined 24-8 situation, or 75.0%. Club-70 Play 15* LA Angels.
Good Luck...Larry
Larry Ness' Div Situational Mismatch of the Month (5-0 TY with Situational Mismatch plays)
My 15* NL West Situational Mismatch of the Month is on the Ari D'backs at 4:10 ET. The Giants and D'backs played last weekend in San Francisco, with the Giants taking two of the three games. All three games ended in 2-0 scores. That shouldn't come as too much of a surprise, as the Giants are batting .242 (ranks 26th) and the D'backs .223 (dead-last at 30th in all of MLB). The Giants were the lowest scoring team in MLB coming into this weekend's three-game set in Chase Field but with 5-1 and 5-3 wins, the Giants have edged past the D'backs in that category, averaging a modest 3.50 RPG to the D'backs' average of 3.41 per. It should also be noted that San Fran entered this series 0-6 on the road in 2009 but this afternoon, are on the verge of a road sweep. What's going on here? Matt Cain (2-0 with a 2.37 ERA in three starts / team is 2-1) looks to improve to 3-0 for the first time in his short career. Most should know Cain's history. He went 13-12 with a 4.15 ERA as a rookie in 2006, as the Giants went 16-15 in his 31 starts. He's a pitcher with good stuff but over the last two seasons, despite ERAs of 3.65 (in 2007) and 3.76 (in 2008), he's gone 7-16 and 8-14. However, that's only PART of the story. His real problem has been the Giants just rarely seem to win when he takes the mound. Cain finished dead-last among all MLB pitchers in 2007 vs the moneyline, as the Giants were an abysmal 9-23 (minus-$1,803) in his starts two seasons ago. The Giants "improved" to 14-20 (minus-$386) in his 2008 starts but that's still a two-year mark of 15-30 and minus-$2,189, which is pretty 'ugly.' Cain has pitched well in the early going of 2009 but I still need to be convinced that the Giants can win on a regular basis with him on the mound. As mentioned earlier, he's looking to start 3-0 for the first time in his career (this is his fourth start of '09) and it should be noted that it took him 14 starts last season to win his third game! Arizona began the season with a strong one-two punch at the top of its rotation with Webb and Haren but Webb quickly went on the DL. The D'backs are hoping that Garland, a free agent, will help solidify and give some depth to a starting rotation that fell apart at the end of last season. Garland was a fairly non-descript starter with the White Sox in his first five seasons but went 18-10 (3.50) when Chicago captured the World Series title in 2006 and followed in 2006 by going 18-7 (4.51). He fell out of favor in Chicago after going 10-13 in 2007 and signed with the Angels last year, going 14-8 with a 4.90 ERA. His high ERA could be a concern but let's note that these last four seasons, Garland's teams are 75-55 in his 130 starts (includes the postseason), after the Angels went 20-12 in his 32 starts last year. All of Garland's starts have come at Chase Field to begin 2009 (this is his fourth) and he's off to a 2-1 start, although his ERA is an unimpressive 5.71. However, Garland pitched well in defeatung the Rockies this past Monday, allowing just two runs (only one was earned) on six hits over 6.2 innings. He walked two and had five strikeouts. Garland is not dominating but as I've already pointed out, unlike with Cain, his teams have a habit of winning when he's on the mound. The 6-11 D'backs don't look in the early going as if they are going to challenge the Dodgers in the NL West but again, it's early. As for the 8-8 Giants, they've lost 90 and 91 games these last two seasons, going a combined 67-95 (.414) on the road. The situation hardly favors them to complete a road sweep of the D'backs, who these last two seasons, have gone 98-64 (.605) in Chase Field. Expect the "hard-luck" Cain to be on the wrong end of the scoreboard" once again. NL West Situational Mismatch of the Month 15* Ari D'backs.
Good Luck...Larry
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My 15* Club-70 Play is on the LA Angels at 3:35 ET. The Angels won a ML-best 100 games last year, while the Mariners fell to 61-101 in 2008, after going 88-74 in 2007. However, while the Angels have struggled in the early going of 2009 at 6-11 (dealing with the tragic death of young pitcher Rick Adenhart, hasn't helped), the Mariners have experienced a re-birth under new manager Don Wakamatsu. After wins in the first two games of this three-game series in Anaheim, Seattle is 12-6, just one-half game behind Toronto for the AL's best record. The Mariners won only 26 games away from home last year but have now won six straight road games, giving them a 7-2 record away from Seattle to open the new season. The starters this afternoon will be the same ones who took the mound back on April 15, when the Mariners beat the Angels 11-3 in Seattle. Jarrod Washburn (former Angel) goes for Seattle and Jered Weaver will pitch for the Angels. Washburn, like his team, is experiencing a renaissance so far in 2009. Entering this year, his 18-6 (3.15) season of 2002 (Angels won World Series that year) had long been forgotten, as these last three years in Seattle have been a 'nightmare.' Washburn was 23-43 (4.55), with the Mariners going 37-52 in his 89 starts from 2006-08. However, he comes into this series finale 3-0 with a 1.71 ERA in three 2009 starts, searching for his first 4-0 start since his rookie season of 1998. Speaking of rookie seasons, Jered Weaver was a sensation in his rookie campaign of 2006, going 11-2 with a 2.56 ERA in 19 starts (team was 14-5). However, he's never quite been the same since. He went 13-7 in 28 starts in 2007 but his ERA climbed to 3.91 that season, while the team finished a more modest 16-12 in his 28 starts. His ERA rose again last year (to 4.33), as Weaver was 11-10 in 30 starts (LA was 15-15). He's 1-1 with a 3.38 ERA to open 2009 but pitched poorly in that April 15 game in Seattle, allowing 10 hits and four ERs in just five innings. However, I'm siding with the Angels in this one for a number of reasons. First of all, while the Mariners are off to an impressive start, they are NOT a better team than the Angels and LA should be able to regroup and avoid the home sweep. Also, let's NOT forget how poorly Washburn's pitched these last three years and let's not be too quick to conclude that he's turned into Sandy Koufax, after just three 2009 starts. I'll close with a focus on some key numbers. The Angels were superb vs left-handed starters in 2008, going 34-16 overall. In home day games against lefties, the Angels were a perfect 6-0 last year, averaging 7.0 RPG (this will be their first such situation this year). As for the Mariners, they were awful vs right-handers last year (40-70), a mark which included a poor 7-18 record in away day games, while scoring just 3.3 RPG. Yes, the Mariners look different early on in 2009 but let me note that they've faced just one right-hander this year in a day game. The Mariners won that game but only 1-0. Going back to the beginning of last year, the Angels are 6-0 vs left-handed starters in home day games, while going against the Mariners vs right-handed starters in road day games leaves one 18-8 (in that same time frame). That's a combined 24-8 situation, or 75.0%. Club-70 Play 15* LA Angels.
Good Luck...Larry
Larry Ness' Div Situational Mismatch of the Month (5-0 TY with Situational Mismatch plays)
My 15* NL West Situational Mismatch of the Month is on the Ari D'backs at 4:10 ET. The Giants and D'backs played last weekend in San Francisco, with the Giants taking two of the three games. All three games ended in 2-0 scores. That shouldn't come as too much of a surprise, as the Giants are batting .242 (ranks 26th) and the D'backs .223 (dead-last at 30th in all of MLB). The Giants were the lowest scoring team in MLB coming into this weekend's three-game set in Chase Field but with 5-1 and 5-3 wins, the Giants have edged past the D'backs in that category, averaging a modest 3.50 RPG to the D'backs' average of 3.41 per. It should also be noted that San Fran entered this series 0-6 on the road in 2009 but this afternoon, are on the verge of a road sweep. What's going on here? Matt Cain (2-0 with a 2.37 ERA in three starts / team is 2-1) looks to improve to 3-0 for the first time in his short career. Most should know Cain's history. He went 13-12 with a 4.15 ERA as a rookie in 2006, as the Giants went 16-15 in his 31 starts. He's a pitcher with good stuff but over the last two seasons, despite ERAs of 3.65 (in 2007) and 3.76 (in 2008), he's gone 7-16 and 8-14. However, that's only PART of the story. His real problem has been the Giants just rarely seem to win when he takes the mound. Cain finished dead-last among all MLB pitchers in 2007 vs the moneyline, as the Giants were an abysmal 9-23 (minus-$1,803) in his starts two seasons ago. The Giants "improved" to 14-20 (minus-$386) in his 2008 starts but that's still a two-year mark of 15-30 and minus-$2,189, which is pretty 'ugly.' Cain has pitched well in the early going of 2009 but I still need to be convinced that the Giants can win on a regular basis with him on the mound. As mentioned earlier, he's looking to start 3-0 for the first time in his career (this is his fourth start of '09) and it should be noted that it took him 14 starts last season to win his third game! Arizona began the season with a strong one-two punch at the top of its rotation with Webb and Haren but Webb quickly went on the DL. The D'backs are hoping that Garland, a free agent, will help solidify and give some depth to a starting rotation that fell apart at the end of last season. Garland was a fairly non-descript starter with the White Sox in his first five seasons but went 18-10 (3.50) when Chicago captured the World Series title in 2006 and followed in 2006 by going 18-7 (4.51). He fell out of favor in Chicago after going 10-13 in 2007 and signed with the Angels last year, going 14-8 with a 4.90 ERA. His high ERA could be a concern but let's note that these last four seasons, Garland's teams are 75-55 in his 130 starts (includes the postseason), after the Angels went 20-12 in his 32 starts last year. All of Garland's starts have come at Chase Field to begin 2009 (this is his fourth) and he's off to a 2-1 start, although his ERA is an unimpressive 5.71. However, Garland pitched well in defeatung the Rockies this past Monday, allowing just two runs (only one was earned) on six hits over 6.2 innings. He walked two and had five strikeouts. Garland is not dominating but as I've already pointed out, unlike with Cain, his teams have a habit of winning when he's on the mound. The 6-11 D'backs don't look in the early going as if they are going to challenge the Dodgers in the NL West but again, it's early. As for the 8-8 Giants, they've lost 90 and 91 games these last two seasons, going a combined 67-95 (.414) on the road. The situation hardly favors them to complete a road sweep of the D'backs, who these last two seasons, have gone 98-64 (.605) in Chase Field. Expect the "hard-luck" Cain to be on the wrong end of the scoreboard" once again. NL West Situational Mismatch of the Month 15* Ari D'backs.
Good Luck...Larry
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tonyosports
Play: CAVALIERS
Comments: The Cleveland Cavaliers will look to complete their second 1st round sweep in 3 years with a win today over the Detroit Pistons. LeBron James once again led the way with 25 points, 11 rebounds & 9 assists as the Cavs won Game 3 despite scoring just nine points in the 3rd quarter. Joe Smith almost outplayed Detroit's entire bench by himself, as he provided a playoff-career high 19 points to go with 10 rebounds. Richard Hamilton continues to be the most consistent offensive force for Detroit, as he led the Pistons with 15 points. Look for Cleveland to complete the sweep today, as they will await the winner of the Atlanta/Miami series. All Cavs!
Result: Pending
Play: CUBS
Comments: The reeling Chicago Cubs will try to avoid a sweep today against the St. Louis Cardinals, as righthander Rich Harden (1-1, 4.20 ERA) will be opposed by Cardinals righthander Todd Wellemeyer (1-1, 5.29 ERA). Harden won his only start against St. Louis last season on September 11th, 2008 as he pitched 6 innings & allowed 2 runs on 5 hits during the Cubs’ 3-2 win. Wellemeyer went 2-2 in 4 starts against the Cubs last season with a 3.32 ERA. Cubs' centerfielder Reed Johnson is batting .417 in 12 career at-bats against Wellemeyer with 1 run batted in. Look for the Cubs to win a low-scoring affair today & avoid the sweep. All Cubs!
Result: Pending
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Play: CAVALIERS
Comments: The Cleveland Cavaliers will look to complete their second 1st round sweep in 3 years with a win today over the Detroit Pistons. LeBron James once again led the way with 25 points, 11 rebounds & 9 assists as the Cavs won Game 3 despite scoring just nine points in the 3rd quarter. Joe Smith almost outplayed Detroit's entire bench by himself, as he provided a playoff-career high 19 points to go with 10 rebounds. Richard Hamilton continues to be the most consistent offensive force for Detroit, as he led the Pistons with 15 points. Look for Cleveland to complete the sweep today, as they will await the winner of the Atlanta/Miami series. All Cavs!
Result: Pending
Play: CUBS
Comments: The reeling Chicago Cubs will try to avoid a sweep today against the St. Louis Cardinals, as righthander Rich Harden (1-1, 4.20 ERA) will be opposed by Cardinals righthander Todd Wellemeyer (1-1, 5.29 ERA). Harden won his only start against St. Louis last season on September 11th, 2008 as he pitched 6 innings & allowed 2 runs on 5 hits during the Cubs’ 3-2 win. Wellemeyer went 2-2 in 4 starts against the Cubs last season with a 3.32 ERA. Cubs' centerfielder Reed Johnson is batting .417 in 12 career at-bats against Wellemeyer with 1 run batted in. Look for the Cubs to win a low-scoring affair today & avoid the sweep. All Cubs!
Result: Pending
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