SCOTT FERRALL'S PAY PICKS:
MLB PAY PICKS FOR SUNDAY PICKS ARE IN ALL CAPS AND RANKED IN ORDER OF CONFIDENCE ( )
Pittsburgh (Ohlendorf)
SAN DIEGO (PEAVY) -190 (1)
TORONTO (HALLADAY) -150 (2)
White Sox (Contreras)
Yankees (Pettitte)
BOSTON (MASTERSON) -125 (3)
TAMPA BAY (SONNANSTINE) -108 (4)
Oakland (Eveland)
DETROIT (GALARRAGA) -145 (5)
Kansas City (Ponson)
SAN FRANCISCO (CAIN) EVEN (6)
Arizona (Garland)
Cubs (Harden)
ST. LOUIS (WELLEMEYER) +112 (7)
Atlanta (Kawakami)
CINCINNATI (OWINGS) EVEN (8)
PHILADELPHIA (MOYER) -105 (9)
Florida (Taylor)
MINNESOTA (PERKINS) +120 (10)
Cleveland (Laffey)
TEXAS (MCCARTHY) +105 (11)
Baltimore (Bergesen)
Seattle (Washburn)
ANGELS (WEAVER) -130 (12)
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MLB PAY PICKS FOR SUNDAY PICKS ARE IN ALL CAPS AND RANKED IN ORDER OF CONFIDENCE ( )
Pittsburgh (Ohlendorf)
SAN DIEGO (PEAVY) -190 (1)
TORONTO (HALLADAY) -150 (2)
White Sox (Contreras)
Yankees (Pettitte)
BOSTON (MASTERSON) -125 (3)
TAMPA BAY (SONNANSTINE) -108 (4)
Oakland (Eveland)
DETROIT (GALARRAGA) -145 (5)
Kansas City (Ponson)
SAN FRANCISCO (CAIN) EVEN (6)
Arizona (Garland)
Cubs (Harden)
ST. LOUIS (WELLEMEYER) +112 (7)
Atlanta (Kawakami)
CINCINNATI (OWINGS) EVEN (8)
PHILADELPHIA (MOYER) -105 (9)
Florida (Taylor)
MINNESOTA (PERKINS) +120 (10)
Cleveland (Laffey)
TEXAS (MCCARTHY) +105 (11)
Baltimore (Bergesen)
Seattle (Washburn)
ANGELS (WEAVER) -130 (12)
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SCOTT FERRRALL'S PAY PICKS:
NBA PLAYOFFS FIRST ROUND PICKS FOR SUNDAY PICKS ARE IN ALL CAPS AND RANKED IN ORDER OF CONFIDENCE ( )
Against the Spread
ORLANDO -4 (1)
Philadelphia
CLEVELAND -8 ½ (2)
Detroit
PORTLAND +4 ½ (3)
Houston
Boston
CHICAGO -3 (4)
OVER/UNDER
Boston / Chicago UNDER 201 (1)
Portland / Houston UNDER 182 (2)
Cleveland / Detroit OVER 177 (3)
Orlando / Philadelphia OVER 191 (4)
Money Line
CLEVELAND -425 (1)
Detroit
ORLANDO -180 (2)
Philadelphia
PORTLAND +180 (3)
Houston
Boston
CHICAGO -150 (4)
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NBA PLAYOFFS FIRST ROUND PICKS FOR SUNDAY PICKS ARE IN ALL CAPS AND RANKED IN ORDER OF CONFIDENCE ( )
Against the Spread
ORLANDO -4 (1)
Philadelphia
CLEVELAND -8 ½ (2)
Detroit
PORTLAND +4 ½ (3)
Houston
Boston
CHICAGO -3 (4)
OVER/UNDER
Boston / Chicago UNDER 201 (1)
Portland / Houston UNDER 182 (2)
Cleveland / Detroit OVER 177 (3)
Orlando / Philadelphia OVER 191 (4)
Money Line
CLEVELAND -425 (1)
Detroit
ORLANDO -180 (2)
Philadelphia
PORTLAND +180 (3)
Houston
Boston
CHICAGO -150 (4)
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Craig Davis
Sunday's Lineup
30 Dime ---- ROCKETS
15 Dime ---- DODGERS -1 1/2 RUN LINE (Listed Kershaw and Marquis. If they don't pitch, play is void)
HOUSTON ROCKETS --- I've backed the Rockets in two of the three games in this series, and though I've split the two, I believe I was on the right side both times and Houston will prove me right tonight.
How they blew a 17-point lead in the second half is beyond me, but trust me, they won't let it slip away tonight. I truly believe, position for position, the Rockets are just more talented than Portland. I don't think Portland has an answer for Yao Ming inside, though I do like the ability they have to throw a few guys at him.
And let's be serious... does anyone really believe the Blazers will be able to hit as many "hand in your face" three pointers as they did the other night? This game was a nine-point difference late in the fourth quarter but a few daggers from Steve Blake and Rudy Fernandez brought the game to within one. That simply won't happen again tonight.
Houston has owned the Blazers in recent history, winning nine of the last 11 while covering seven of the last nine. They own the advantage on the boards in those games and shoot better from the free throw line for the season.
The Rockets have covered five of their last six home games, seven of their last nine vs. teams from the Northwest division, and 37 of their last 55 following an ATS loss. Folks, this one's easy. Rockets win by double digits and cover easily.
LA DODGERS RUN LINE (-1 1/2) (Listed Kershaw and Marquis. If they don't pitch, play is void) --- This one comes down to one thing for me... pitching. I absolutely love Clayton Kershaw and I firmly believe we're going to be talking about this guy for years to come as a potential top 5 guy. That's how good I believe he is, and he'll prove it this afternoon in Colorado.
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED----------GL GUYS
So why am I so excited about a guy with an ERA over 4? Well, first off, I've seen him pitch twice, and I'm absolutely sold on how fluid his motion is. He's a lefty with great stuff and definite command of his fastball. With only three starts so far this season, Kershaw has been dominant in two of them but recently suffered a meltdown in his third start of the season in Houston. And how many pitchers don't struggle there?
Houston is a launching pad for hitters and there are, often times, high scoring games down there. But if you look at the season as a whole, Kershaw's first two starts (12 IP, 3 H, 2 ER and 19K) were more indicative of what I expect from him this afternoon. Colorado simply won't be able to figure him out and will continue their dominance over the Rockies with another easy win this afternoon.
Sunday's Lineup
30 Dime ---- ROCKETS
15 Dime ---- DODGERS -1 1/2 RUN LINE (Listed Kershaw and Marquis. If they don't pitch, play is void)
HOUSTON ROCKETS --- I've backed the Rockets in two of the three games in this series, and though I've split the two, I believe I was on the right side both times and Houston will prove me right tonight.
How they blew a 17-point lead in the second half is beyond me, but trust me, they won't let it slip away tonight. I truly believe, position for position, the Rockets are just more talented than Portland. I don't think Portland has an answer for Yao Ming inside, though I do like the ability they have to throw a few guys at him.
And let's be serious... does anyone really believe the Blazers will be able to hit as many "hand in your face" three pointers as they did the other night? This game was a nine-point difference late in the fourth quarter but a few daggers from Steve Blake and Rudy Fernandez brought the game to within one. That simply won't happen again tonight.
Houston has owned the Blazers in recent history, winning nine of the last 11 while covering seven of the last nine. They own the advantage on the boards in those games and shoot better from the free throw line for the season.
The Rockets have covered five of their last six home games, seven of their last nine vs. teams from the Northwest division, and 37 of their last 55 following an ATS loss. Folks, this one's easy. Rockets win by double digits and cover easily.
LA DODGERS RUN LINE (-1 1/2) (Listed Kershaw and Marquis. If they don't pitch, play is void) --- This one comes down to one thing for me... pitching. I absolutely love Clayton Kershaw and I firmly believe we're going to be talking about this guy for years to come as a potential top 5 guy. That's how good I believe he is, and he'll prove it this afternoon in Colorado.
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED----------GL GUYS
So why am I so excited about a guy with an ERA over 4? Well, first off, I've seen him pitch twice, and I'm absolutely sold on how fluid his motion is. He's a lefty with great stuff and definite command of his fastball. With only three starts so far this season, Kershaw has been dominant in two of them but recently suffered a meltdown in his third start of the season in Houston. And how many pitchers don't struggle there?
Houston is a launching pad for hitters and there are, often times, high scoring games down there. But if you look at the season as a whole, Kershaw's first two starts (12 IP, 3 H, 2 ER and 19K) were more indicative of what I expect from him this afternoon. Colorado simply won't be able to figure him out and will continue their dominance over the Rockies with another easy win this afternoon.
Wunderdog
Game: Milwaukee at Houston (2:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: Houston +110 (moneyline)
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Game: Milwaukee at Houston (2:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: Houston +110 (moneyline)
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Manny Parra, who is 0-3 with an 8.16 ERA goes for Milwaukee here. Yet the Brewers, on the road where they are averaging just 4.2 runs per game, are favored here. This line is out of whack and we'll take the home squad. Sure, Houston has had their issues thus far, but they are at home and have the pitcher who is performing better. The Brewers won a shutout in game two, scoring nine runs. But they are just 6-17 the past three seasons on the road coming off a 9+ run performance. Houston is 18-6 over that span when attempting to avoid the sweep. I look for the Astros and Ortiz to avoid it this afternoon.
Aussieguy Sports Picks 4-26-09
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FLORIDA MARLINS First Pick today.
Sometimes, I get an email 10 min into the game, or after the first quarter, or even half way thru' the game sayin : Ah Aussie, we're screwed, we're done here. This is done, what's the next pick? Well, Philadelphia has been a strong reminder to myself and to many others that the game ain't done until the final siren!!! They've come back from the dead in their last two outings against Fish. Heartbreaking losses for the Marlin backers but also for Florida itself. However, I'm just wondering how long can Phillies go on such a crazy luck?! They've been on the ropes a couple of times lately, and have scraped through by the skin of their teeth, in the 9th and 10th!! Absolutely crazy game.
You know me though, I don't get carried away much with stats, trends and past history. I don't care how good Moyer is, or how old he's getting, or what his past record against Florida is! No, My first port of call is always the line and the numbers. Therefore, when I looked at the opening price here in this game, straight away I thought to myself, Yup Florida is the play. I may be wrong of course, but I don't believe for one second that Florida warrants such a nice price in this final game. The Books are telling everyone, that Phillies is as good as a sure thing here. I'm basing my statement on the previous prices that Philadelphia has been getting. I think they've deserved their medium dog status and I really thought Vegas would stick with the same price in this game too. However, this is nearly at pickem with most books. At this price I wil l take the rookie together with the Marlins ALL DAY LONG!
Boston at Bulls UNDER 200.5 Second Pick today
Well, it looks and sounds like, FINALLY the bloody Celtics have switched into the actual Playoff mode. I don't think it's just the Celtics though; I think all the teams now may have shifted gears and their mind set has been slowly changing.
We got done in the early games (I'd like to say UNFAIRLY, but ALL is fair in the gambling world) by sticking to normal handicapping methods when number crunching. I don't think I will forget for a long time 3 particular First Half losses early in this Playoffs i.e Jazz Under 103, Heat Under 93 and Boston Under 98. Sorry to remind you of those games, Painful to the heap pocket I know, but I really think it was the right bet - However we got the rough end of the stick .....shoved up our backsides!!! Brutally Ugly.
But I really those BAD BEATS OVERS should be a thing of the pa st. I mean, it's still a game and still could fly well over 225, but you'd be a moron to play the Over in this game. Like I said, the teams have switched on into Playoffs mode now. The scorefest is over (or at least, I Hope so!)
But honestly, I just can't see Boston letting the Bulls do their 'run n gun' routine at home and score as they did in the first two games. Either way you look at this, UNDER is the play. If the Bulls are to turn things around, they will tighten up their defense and improve their ugly stats where they give up more than they can score! If Boston is to take a nice lead here today, they'll slow the young athletic Bulls down and just play on their terms rather than Chicago's! Unless this goes to OT, I just can't see this sailing Over the 200 mark.
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FLORIDA MARLINS First Pick today.
Sometimes, I get an email 10 min into the game, or after the first quarter, or even half way thru' the game sayin : Ah Aussie, we're screwed, we're done here. This is done, what's the next pick? Well, Philadelphia has been a strong reminder to myself and to many others that the game ain't done until the final siren!!! They've come back from the dead in their last two outings against Fish. Heartbreaking losses for the Marlin backers but also for Florida itself. However, I'm just wondering how long can Phillies go on such a crazy luck?! They've been on the ropes a couple of times lately, and have scraped through by the skin of their teeth, in the 9th and 10th!! Absolutely crazy game.
You know me though, I don't get carried away much with stats, trends and past history. I don't care how good Moyer is, or how old he's getting, or what his past record against Florida is! No, My first port of call is always the line and the numbers. Therefore, when I looked at the opening price here in this game, straight away I thought to myself, Yup Florida is the play. I may be wrong of course, but I don't believe for one second that Florida warrants such a nice price in this final game. The Books are telling everyone, that Phillies is as good as a sure thing here. I'm basing my statement on the previous prices that Philadelphia has been getting. I think they've deserved their medium dog status and I really thought Vegas would stick with the same price in this game too. However, this is nearly at pickem with most books. At this price I wil l take the rookie together with the Marlins ALL DAY LONG!
Boston at Bulls UNDER 200.5 Second Pick today
Well, it looks and sounds like, FINALLY the bloody Celtics have switched into the actual Playoff mode. I don't think it's just the Celtics though; I think all the teams now may have shifted gears and their mind set has been slowly changing.
We got done in the early games (I'd like to say UNFAIRLY, but ALL is fair in the gambling world) by sticking to normal handicapping methods when number crunching. I don't think I will forget for a long time 3 particular First Half losses early in this Playoffs i.e Jazz Under 103, Heat Under 93 and Boston Under 98. Sorry to remind you of those games, Painful to the heap pocket I know, but I really think it was the right bet - However we got the rough end of the stick .....shoved up our backsides!!! Brutally Ugly.
But I really those BAD BEATS OVERS should be a thing of the pa st. I mean, it's still a game and still could fly well over 225, but you'd be a moron to play the Over in this game. Like I said, the teams have switched on into Playoffs mode now. The scorefest is over (or at least, I Hope so!)
But honestly, I just can't see Boston letting the Bulls do their 'run n gun' routine at home and score as they did in the first two games. Either way you look at this, UNDER is the play. If the Bulls are to turn things around, they will tighten up their defense and improve their ugly stats where they give up more than they can score! If Boston is to take a nice lead here today, they'll slow the young athletic Bulls down and just play on their terms rather than Chicago's! Unless this goes to OT, I just can't see this sailing Over the 200 mark.
Bob Donahue
Orlando at Philadelphia
Pick: Philadelphia +4.5
The oddsmakers continue to confuse us in this series. It is obvious that the Orlando Magic are a banged up team right now, and more closely resemble the team that lost 8 of 11 heading into the playoffs than the team that was so tough early in the season. We will take the value here with the home team.
Orlando at Philadelphia
Pick: Philadelphia +4.5
The oddsmakers continue to confuse us in this series. It is obvious that the Orlando Magic are a banged up team right now, and more closely resemble the team that lost 8 of 11 heading into the playoffs than the team that was so tough early in the season. We will take the value here with the home team.
