Craig Davis
Sunday's Lineup
15 Dime ---- INDIANA
10 Dime ---- BOWLING GREEN
INDIANA HOOSIERS --- There’s no doubt the Illini’ are the more talented team here, but to ask them to go on the road and win by double digits is absolutely ridiculous, even against a struggling team like Indiana. Let’s remember, the last time the Hoosiers were at home they led Iowa by as many as 17 points en route to a 68-60 win. Since then, the Hoosiers were blown out by Michigan State (the league’s best team) and an eight-point road loss at Minnesota. Aside from the Iowa win, the Hoosiers have hosted four other games in the Big 10, and the largest margin of defeat was a 12-point loss to Ohio State… a game was just a seven-point margin with a minute to go. So, what I’m telling you is that Indiana has a HUGE home court advantage, and the further along they go in the season the better this young team is playing at home. Tom Crean is a good coach and has done his absolute best to get these guys to play together, especially when playing in front of the home fans in Bloomington.
Illinois, meanwhile, isn’t exactly a juggernaut on the road, losing all but two of their road games in Big 10 Conference play. And if you consider one of those wins was on December 30 when they were playing really good basketball and the other one was a ridiculous one-point win at Northwestern Wednesday night, how could anyone feel comfortable backing this team as a double digit favorite ON THE ROAD. Prior to Northwestern’s meltdown, Illinois’ last two road games resulted in a 13-point loss at Wisconsin and a 23-point loss at Minnesota. We’re getting tremendous line value here today for a couple of reasons. First, Illinois dominated the first meeting between these two back in January, 76-45. Secondly, the Illini rolled Purdue 66-48 just a week ago and Purdue is considered one of the elite teams in the Big 10. But also consider this… THAT game was at home where Illinois is a completely different team. I’m not falling for it. Hoosiers are 5-3 ATS at home this season and are currently on a 7-2 ATS run as a home dog, not to mention the fact they are 4-1 ATS following a SU loss. Glad to take the points with the home dog today.
BOWLING GREEN --- I don’t care what Eastern Michigan has done in its last two games (covering despite losing), this is a HORRIBLE basketball team and they have no business competing in this contest with the Falcons. I know because I’ve been watching them closely recently with a couple of “mis-read” selections on Ohio and Buffalo minus double digits. The difference tonight is that we’re backing a team that has covered four straight and five of their last six. EMU is absolutely atrocious offensively, scoring 49, 45, 41, 51, 46, 45 and 52 points in their last seven games, and the only reason they grabbed two straight ATS wins in their last two games was because Ohio and Buffalo had horrible shooting nights themselves.
I’m completely certain Bowling Green will win this game, but how can I be certain they’ll cover the 14-point line at home? Well, first off, the Falcons score over 67 PPG at home and they have yet to face a defense as bad as EMU will bring to the table. Secondly, with all the low scoring output we’ve seen from the Eagles recently, BG will likely need only 64 or 65 points to get the cover… something they’ve been able to do much of the year when playing at home. The Falcons dominate the glass, dominate the free throw shooting and just about every other major statistical category. With a big game coming up against Buffalo, you can bet the Falcons will be trying to “fine tune” some things tonight in an attempt to get ready for their big game next week. It’s a big number to lay, but I’m comfortable laying it.