most sites offer inrunning lines on the game, if u hate ur side so much, bet out with an inrunning bet. im on uconn and might do it, but ill wait until the 5 minute mark or so, too much time left. a big ten team can go scoreless for 4+ mins at a given time, plus uconn is in the bonus or a foul away. lots of chances for free points.
John Ryan
Game: Villanova at North Carolina Apr 4 2009 8:50PM
Prediction: North Carolina
Reason: Ai Simulator 15* graded play on UNC as the face Villanova. AiS shows an 87% probability that UNC will win this game by 8 or more points. AiS shows a 90% probability that UNC will score 81 or more points. note that Villanova is just 11-27 ATS (-18.7 Units) in road games when they allow 81 or more points in a game since 1997. UNC is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in road games versus good rebounding teams outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game this season; 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road games versus good ball handling teams committing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons. Villanova has played fundamentally sound especially regarding turnovers. Yet, they are just 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in road games after 3 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers since 1997. HC Williams is a solid 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) after 2 straight games with 9 or less offensive rebounds in all games he has coached since 1997; 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) after 5 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers in all games he has coached since 1997. UNC is also on a nice run noting they are 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when seeded 4 or higher in the NCAA tournament over the last 2 seasons. Fundamentally, UNC just has too much size and the speed advantage for Villanova is quite minimal. So many times in history we have seen college teams come back to play for that one last year and for the national Championship. That sort of dedication is quite rare and nearly always pays off. Now, in the Final 4, UNC will look to play quick, fast, and physical right from the start. The higher the score goes the bigger the advantage for UNC - and that means the UNC score. UNC’s tempo will be to get to 80 points as fast as possible and that tempo alone will wear down Villanova throughout the game. Take UNC.
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on MSU as they face UCONN. media attention has focused on the home court advantage, but the line has already reflected that MSU asset. MSU just has the rugged methodical style and the HC to match that can truly frustrate a far more finesse team like UCONN. AiS shows an 84% probability that MSU will lose this game by 4 or fewer points and a 65% probability that they will win the game. Both teams, coincidentally, have an 88% probability of shooting between 40 and 46% for the game. note that MSU is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in road games when their opponents make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game this season. Turnovers are projected to be nearly even +-3 and MSU is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games when they commit around the same number of turnovers as opponent over the last 2 seasons. MSU is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) versus excellent teams shooting >=45% with a defense of <=42% this season. MSu is a strong 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games after 3 consecutive non-conference games over the last 2 seasons; 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in road games after having won 4 of their last 5 games this season. UCONN is a terrible 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) after 2 straight games out rebounding opponent by 15 or more since 1997. UCONN will have their hands full even out rebounding this MSU team. Calhoun is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) after 2 straight games outrebounding opponent by 15 or more. Take MSU.
Game: Villanova at North Carolina Apr 4 2009 8:50PM
Prediction: North Carolina
Reason: Ai Simulator 15* graded play on UNC as the face Villanova. AiS shows an 87% probability that UNC will win this game by 8 or more points. AiS shows a 90% probability that UNC will score 81 or more points. note that Villanova is just 11-27 ATS (-18.7 Units) in road games when they allow 81 or more points in a game since 1997. UNC is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in road games versus good rebounding teams outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game this season; 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road games versus good ball handling teams committing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons. Villanova has played fundamentally sound especially regarding turnovers. Yet, they are just 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in road games after 3 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers since 1997. HC Williams is a solid 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) after 2 straight games with 9 or less offensive rebounds in all games he has coached since 1997; 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) after 5 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers in all games he has coached since 1997. UNC is also on a nice run noting they are 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when seeded 4 or higher in the NCAA tournament over the last 2 seasons. Fundamentally, UNC just has too much size and the speed advantage for Villanova is quite minimal. So many times in history we have seen college teams come back to play for that one last year and for the national Championship. That sort of dedication is quite rare and nearly always pays off. Now, in the Final 4, UNC will look to play quick, fast, and physical right from the start. The higher the score goes the bigger the advantage for UNC - and that means the UNC score. UNC’s tempo will be to get to 80 points as fast as possible and that tempo alone will wear down Villanova throughout the game. Take UNC.
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on MSU as they face UCONN. media attention has focused on the home court advantage, but the line has already reflected that MSU asset. MSU just has the rugged methodical style and the HC to match that can truly frustrate a far more finesse team like UCONN. AiS shows an 84% probability that MSU will lose this game by 4 or fewer points and a 65% probability that they will win the game. Both teams, coincidentally, have an 88% probability of shooting between 40 and 46% for the game. note that MSU is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in road games when their opponents make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game this season. Turnovers are projected to be nearly even +-3 and MSU is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games when they commit around the same number of turnovers as opponent over the last 2 seasons. MSU is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) versus excellent teams shooting >=45% with a defense of <=42% this season. MSu is a strong 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games after 3 consecutive non-conference games over the last 2 seasons; 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in road games after having won 4 of their last 5 games this season. UCONN is a terrible 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) after 2 straight games out rebounding opponent by 15 or more since 1997. UCONN will have their hands full even out rebounding this MSU team. Calhoun is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) after 2 straight games outrebounding opponent by 15 or more. Take MSU.
