Andre Gomes | NBA Sides
Sat, 04/04/09 - 7:05 PM ?T
dime bet
808 ATL 2.0 (-110) Bodog vs 807 ORL
Analysis:
This is not a "sexy play" as the logic of this game should be: if the Magic spanked last night the best team of the league they won't have any problems to beat the fading Hawks today. I don't simply think the same as the Hawks will be fired up for today.
In terms of handicapping this is a powerful spot for the Hakws. After all the Magic come for this game "happy and fat" as they crushed the Cavs by 29 points and the Hawks once again lost against the Celtics (the Hawks were swept 0-4) and naturally I expect them to be fired up for today. This potential spot for the Magic is well documented: I made a research and when the Magic won a game by 20 points or more they are just 1-3 ATS in the following game on the road being favorites. Those 3 ATS losses were actually games that the Magic lost outright and don't you think that it was games against top caliber teams: Detroit, Indiana and Chicago aren't exactly powerhouse clubs.
The Hawks are lacking confidence and toughness on the road. However when playing at home suddenly the Hawks are a dominant team. Recently they beat New Orleans, Utah, Portland, Dallas and the Lakers at home and they are a bombastic 5-0 ATS as home underdogs. This is also a big revenge game for them as the Hawks were completely humiliated by the Magic in the last game in Orlando. The Magic won by 34 and midway the third quarter the Magic led by 50(!) points! Atlanta has been a good team when having revenge as they are 14-5 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more this season.
This sentiment of revenge game combined with the bounce back spot makes the Hawks a valuable bet for tonight's card. In my research I found a curious trend that shows how powerful is the spot for the Hawks: Playing on Underdogs revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 30 points or more, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days is 27-6 over the last 5 seasons. I expect the Hawks to perform fine against the red hot Magic and I'm taking the upset in here.
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