Sports Advisors
North Carolina (2-1, 1-1 ATS) at Miami, Fla. (2-1, 1-1 ATS)
North Carolina enters this key ACC matchup at the Orange Bowl with questions at the quarterback spot as they will be without starting QB T.J. Yates when they take on Miami.
North Carolina was on top of Virginia Tech 10-3 last Saturday and about to go up 17-3 when Yates (623 yards passing with six TDs and one INT this season) went down with a broken ankle in the second half. The offense managed nothing after redshirt freshman Mike Paulus took over, and the Heels’ defense didn’t help either as the Hokies came back to get a 20-17 win as 3½-point road ‘dogs. Paulus was just 3-of-8 for 23 yards and threw two INTs as Virginia Tech scored 17 unanswered points in the final 16 minutes of play.
Miami went to College Station, Texas, a week ago and throttled Texas A&M 41-23 as a 2½-point favorite. The ‘Canes’ defense is limiting foes to 75 yards per game on the ground and just 278 total ypg. Offensively, Miami got outstanding play last week from redshirt freshman Robert Mavre who was 16 for 22 for 212 yards, two TDs and one INT, while RB Graig Cooper ran for 128 yards and two TDs.
The home team has won each of the four matchups between these two dating back to 2004, but North Carolina is 3-1 ATS, including last year’s 33-27 win as a seven-point home ‘dog.
Butch Davis’ Tar Heels are on ATS streaks of 7-3 against teams with a winning record and 4-1 following a non-cover. Conversely, Miami is on a bevy of ATS slides, including 9-19-1 overall, 4-13-1 in ACC contests, 1-10 at home against teams with a winning record, 0-4 at home overall and 6-21 following an ATS win.
The over is 16-7-1 in North Carolina’s last 24 roadies, but otherwise the team sports under runs of 8-3 following a non-cover, 6-2 against teams with a winning record and 4-1 on the road against teams with a winning home mark. For Miami, the under is on a host of streaks, including 41-19 overall, 35-17-1 in the Orange Bowl, 13-5 in ACC contests, 13-4 in September and 9-3 following an ATS win. Finally, in this brief ACC rivalry, the over is 3-1.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Mississippi (2-2, 2-1 ATS) at (4) Florida (3-0 SU and ATS)
The Gators welcome Ole Miss to the Swamp for a SEC battle with one of the best defenses in the country lying in wait.
Florida is fifth in the country in total defense (213 ypg) and second nationally in both scoring defense (6.3 points per game) and turnover differential (plus-nine). Last week the Gators forced two Tennessee turnovers inside the 20-yard-line in a 30-6 road victory, covering as seven-point favorites. The defense has taken some pressure off Heisman Trophy winner Tim Tebow, who has been average this season, throwing for 489 yards, five TDs and no INTs, after last year’s 55-touchdown season (23 rushing).
Mississippi has lost two games by a total of eight points this season and comes in off last Saturday’s tough 23-17 home loss to Vanderbilt as a seven-point chalk. The Rebels outgained Vandy 385-202, but QB Jevan Snead tossed four INTs and the offense also lost two fumbles in the SEC defeat. Snead has tossed six INTs without a TD in his last two outings.
Florida won a shootout with Mississippi last season 30-24, but failed to cover as a 24½-point road chalk. The Rebels have gotten the cash in five of the seven matchups with the Gators the last 20 years, including each of the last four. In 2003, Ole Miss went to the Swamp and scored a 20-17 upset as a 12½-point ‘dog.
Houston Nutt’s Rebels are just 7-20 ATS in their last 27 September games, but they are on positive ATS streaks of 5-1 overall, 5-1 against teams with a winning record and 5-2 following an ATS loss. Florida, which is 21-1 SU under coach Urban Meyer in the Swamp, is on ATS runs of 6-2 overall and 5-1 in SEC contests.
The under is on a plethora of runs for Ole Miss, including 8-3 in September, 6-2 on the highway,, 4-1 in SEC action, 4-0 following a non-cover and 24-8 following a straight-up loss. The under is also 4-0 in the Gators’ last four September games and 3-0 in the last three series clashes between these two.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Minnesota (4-0, 2-1 ATS) at (14) Ohio State (3-1, 0-3 ATS)
The Buckeyes get star RB Beanie Wells back as they welcome Minnesota to Ohio Stadium in Columbus for the Big Ten opener for both schools.
Wells ran for 1,609 yards and 15 TDs as a sophomore a season ago but went down in the third quarter of his team’s season-opening 43-0 win over Youngstown State after rushing for 111 yards and a TD on 13 carries. He has missed the last three games as the Buckeyes have gone 2-1 (0-3 ATS), including a 35-3 loss at Southern Cal on Sept. 13. Last week, Ohio State got a pleasant surprise when true freshman QB Terrelle Pryor threw for 139 yards and four TDs in his first collegiate start to lead the Buckeyes to a 28-10 win over Troy, though they fell short as 21-point home favorites.
After going 1-11 (4-6-1 ATS) last season, the Golden Gophers have opened 2008 with four straight wins (2-1 ATS) including last Saturday’s 37-3 victory over Florida Atlantic as six-point favorites. Minnesota is averaging 36.2 points and 403.8 yards per game this season behind QB Adam Weber, who is completing 71.8 percent of his throws for 967 yards, seven TDs and one INT. Weber’s favorite target, Eric Decker, leads the conference in receptions (32) and yards (454).
Jim Tressel’s squad has won 22 of 24 Big Ten games since 2005, and his Buckeyes have won three straight conference openers since a 33-27 overtime loss to Northwestern in 2004. Ohio State has won the last five series clashes with Minnesota (4-1 ATS), including last season’s 30-7 road victory, but the Buckeyes just missed as a 24-point chalk. The last time the Gophers traveled to Columbus in 2006, they were crushed 44-0 as 27½-point ‘dogs, and in the last two meetings at the Horseshoe, Ohio State out outscored Minnesota 78-3.
The Buckeyes are 0-4 ATS in their last four overall, 1-4 ATS in their last five in Columbus and 0-4 ATS in their last four September kickoffs, but they are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 conference games and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 after an ATS setback. Meanwhile, Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in its last five overall, 7-3-1 in its last 11 Big Ten contests, but just 2-7 ATS in its last nine on the highway against teams with a winning home record.
For the Gophers, the over is on runs of 11-5 overall, 36-15-1 against teams with a winning record, 19-9 following an ATS win and 5-2 in September. On the flip side, for the Buckeyes, the under is on runs of 13-6 in Columbus, 4-1 overall and 4-0 in September contests. Also, the under is 3-1 in the last four matchups in this rivalry (2-0 at Ohio State).
ATS ADVANTAGE: OHIO STATE
Virginia Tech (3-1, 1-2 ATS) at Nebraska (3-0, 2-1 ATS)
Two traditional college powers get together for the first time in 12 years when Virginia Tech makes the trek to Lincoln, Neb., to take on the Cornhuskers in an ACC-Big 12 showdown.
The Hokies have rebounded from their opening loss to East Carolina with three straight wins, including two straight (1-1 ATS) in ACC play, beating both Georgia Tech and North Carolina by identical 20-17 scores. Virginia Tech went to Chapel Hill a week ago and rallied to beat the Tar Heels as a 3½-point road ‘dog. QB Tyrod Taylor will be making his third straight start in this one, but is still looking for his first TD pass.
Nebraska has feasted on three cupcakes this season (2-1 ATS) and has been idle for two weeks preparing for the Hokies. The Huskers beat New Mexico State 38-7 and covered as 26-point favorites in its most recent contest back on Sept. 13, as their running game amassed 330 yards. Nebraska’s offense is averaging 40 points and better than 450 yards per contest this season with QB Joe Ganz (719 yards passing, five TDs and three INTs) leading the way.
The Hokies are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight September games and 0-7 ATS in their last seven non-conference contests, but they are on positive pointspread runs of 18-5 on the road, 5-2 following a bye week, 4-1 following an ATS win and 13-3 on the road against a team with a winning home mark.
The Huskers are 18-3-1 ATS in their last 22 at home against teams with a winning road record, but otherwise they are on pointspread slides of 4-10 overall, 8-21-2 after a spead-cover, 2-8 against teams with a winning record, 1-5 in September and 1-7 following a straight-up win.
For Virginia Tech, the under is on runs of 4-1 overall, 4-0 in September and 4-0 against teams with a winning record, while Nebraska sports under steaks of 5-2 at home and 4-1 after a straight-up win.
These team haven’t met since 1996 when Nebraska got a 41-21 as a 16-point home chalk.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
(8) Alabama (4-0, 3-1 ATS) at (3) Georgia (4-0, 2-1 ATS)
The game of the day comes from Sanford Stadium in Athens. Ga., where the Crimson Tide steps between the hedges to take on No. 3 Georgia in a key SEC matchup.
Alabama comes in off a 49-14 blowout win at Arkansas last week, covering easily as an eight-point road chalk. RB Glen Coffee averaged 16.2 yards per carry against the Razorbacks, finishing with 162 yards and two TDs. Coffee is sixth in the country at 8.6 yards per carry and makes for a formidable twosome with QB John Parker Wilson, who has thrown for 542 yards, five TDs and just one INT.
Georgia has won 11 straight games (7-2-1 ATS) dating back to last season and traveled west to Tempe, Ariz., a week ago, burying Arizona State 27-10 as a seven-point favorite. QB Matthew Stafford was magnificent against the Sun Devils, throwing for 285 yards and a TD, and RB Knowshon Moreno ran for 149 yards and two TDs. Moreno leads the SEC with 455 rushing yards and is third in the country with nine TDs.
Last season Moreno rushed for 74 yards and a score in the Bulldogs’ 26-23 overtime upset win over Alabama as three-point road ‘dogs. Georgia has won and cashed in three straight against the Tide dating back to 2002. These two last met in Athens in 2003, when Georgia rolled the Tide 37-23 win as a 12½-point favorite.
Alabama is on ATS slides of 2-6 in SEC contests, 1-5 following an ATS win and 4-10 on grass, but it is 4-1 in its last five games overall. Georgia is on ATS runs of 6-0-1 overall, 4-0 at home, 5-2-1 in SEC play and 6-0 against teams with a winning record.
The under is 5-2 in Alabama’s last seven roadies, but aside from that, the over for the Tide is on runs of 6-2 in conference matchups, 7-3 in September games and 7-3 following a spread-cover. Meanwhile, Georgia has under streaks of 23-7 in September and 9-3 following an ATS win.
The over has been the play in the last three series clashes between these rivals.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GEORGIA
Tennessee (1-2 SU and ATS) at (15) Auburn (3-1, 1-3 ATS)
Auburn looks to bounce back from last week’s tough loss to LSU when it hosts struggling Tennessee in an SEC clash at Jordan-Hare Stadium.
In a game that went back-and-forth most of the night, the Tigers gave up the decisive touchdown to LSU with just over a minute to play and fell 26-21, falling short as a two-point home underdog. Auburn, which saw its five-game winning streak end in the defeat, racked up 320 total yards, but lost the battle at the line of scrimmage in getting outgained 178-70 on the ground.
Tennessee was humiliated by rival Florida last week, losing 30-6 as a 7½-point home underdog. The Vols, who have alternated SU wins and losses in their last six games going back to November, actually won the yardage battle (258-243) and held Florida QB Tim Tebow (8-for-15 for 96 yards) in check, but Tennessee had three crucial first-half turnovers and forced none the entire game.
These schools haven’t faced each other since the 2004 SEC championship game, with Auburn winning 38-28, but Tennessee covering as a 14½-point underdog. The Tigers have won the last three meetings, but the Vols are 6-3 ATS in the last nine, including 3-1 ATS as an underdog. Finally, eight of the last 11 series clashes have been decided by 10 points or fewer, including a pair of ties.
Tennessee has cashed in five of its last six following a SU loss and is 13-7-1 ATS catching points since 2003, but the Vols are now 1-4 ATS in their last five in September. Meanwhile, Auburn is 6-2 ATS in its last eight following a defeat, but otherwise is mired in pointspread funks of 6-13 as a favorite, 4-8 at Jordan-Hare, 2-8 in September, 1-4 in the SEC and 0-4 versus losing teams.
The under is on streaks of 8-2 for Tennessee overall, 5-1 for Tennessee in conference play, 5-1 for Auburn overall, 5-1 for Auburn at home and 8-3 for Auburn in SEC action.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TENNESSEE and UNDER
(9) Wisconsin (3-0, 2-1 ATS) at Michigan (1-2, 0-3 ATS)
Two teams coming off bye weeks are set to open the Big Ten season against one another at The Big House in Ann Arbor, where Michigan will try to rebound from an ugly loss when it hosts Wisconsin.
The Badgers survived a tough battle at Fresno State on Sept. 13, prevailing 13-10 and narrowly covering as a two-point road favorite. Wisconsin is on a 7-2 SU run (5-4 ATS), and it enters this contest averaging 34 points and 423.3 yards per game in 2008, while yielding 13.7 points and 318 yards per contest. The Badgers do most of their damage on the ground, outrushing opponents by a per-game average of 151 yards per contest (239-88).
The Wolverines were idle last week after suffering a misleading 35-17 loss at Notre Dame as a two-point road chalk. Michigan dominated Notre Dame from a yardage standpoint (388-260), but committed six turnovers, one of which was returned for a touchdown by the Irish. Dating to last year’s 37-21 loss at Wisconsin, the Wolverines have dropped four of their last six contests, going 1-5 ATS (0-5 ATS in the regular season). First-year head coach Rich Rodriguez has seen his offense produce just 18.7 points and 290.7 yards per game to this point.
The Badgers took advantage of three Michigan interceptions in last year’s 37-21 upset home win in Madison, Wis., as a thee-point underdog. The host has won the last four head-to-head clashes going back to 2002, but Wisconsin is on a 5-0-1 ATS roll in this rivalry, all as an underdog.
Wisconsin is on pointspread runs of 5-1 following a bye and 11-3-1 in September, but the team’s negative ATS trends include 2-6 in Big Ten play and 1-6 on the road. As for the Wolverines, they’re 14-5-1 in their last 20 conference contests, but otherwise the ATS trends are all negative, including 9-19-1 at home and 5-12-1 in September.
The over is on runs of 5-2 for Wisconsin overall, 5-2 for Wisconsin in Big Ten play, 6-0-1 for the Wolverines after a bye week, 5-2 for the Wolverines overall and 4-1 for the Wolverines versus winning teams. On the flip side, the under is 6-1 in the last seven series meetings, 7-1 in Michigan’s last eight in September and 10-4 in Michigan’s last 14 in Ann Arbor.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Maryland (3-1, 2-1 ATS) at (20) Clemson (3-1, 0-2 ATS)
Surprising Maryland will try to kick off its ACC campaign with an upset victory at Clemson, which has won three of the last four meetings against the Terrapins.
After a stunning 35-27 win over California as a 14-point home underdog on Sept. 13, Maryland avoided the letdown last week against Eastern Michigan, cruising 51-24 as a 21-point home chalk. The Terps churned out 231 rushing yards and 255 passing yards, while the defense offset giving up 453 total yards by picking off three passes. Coach Ralph Friedgen’s troops are gunning for their first three-game SU or ATS winning streak since October 2006.
After opening ACC play with a lackluster 27-9 win over North Carolina State as a 21-point home favorite, the Tigers flattened South Carolina State 54-0 in a non-lined home game last week. Clemson has hammered a pair of Division I-AA foes by a total tally of 99-17, but the Tigers have been outscored 43-37 against two I-A squads (Alabama and N.C. State).
Clemson cruised to a 30-17 win at Maryland last year as a 3½-point road chalk, ending a 3-0 ATS run by the underdog in this rivalry. Although the Tigers are on a 3-1 SU roll against the Terps, Maryland is 6-2 ATS in the last eight, including 4-0 ATS at Clemson and 3-1 ATS as an underdog. Finally, the visitor has cashed in the last four series battles between these schools.
Clemson has failed to cover in five straight lined games overall, going 0-4 ATS at home. Tommy Bowden’s team is also 3-8 ATS in its last 11 against winning teams. Meanwhile, despite getting the cash in its last two games, Maryland is still stuck in ATS ruts of 4-8 as a visitor since 2006, 4-10 in September, 3-8 against ACC foes, 2-8 after a SU victory and 1-4 on the road.
The under is 7-1 in the last eight Maryland-Clemson tussles. Additionally, the under runs include 5-0 for Clemson overall, 4-0 for Clemson at home, 10-4 for Clemson in the ACC, 7-3 for Maryland overall, 5-0 for Maryland on the road, 5-1 for the Terps in conference action and 4-1 for the Terps in September.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MARYLAND and UNDER
(24) TCU (4-0, 3-0 ATS) at (2) Oklahoma (3-0, 2-0 ATS)
Having cracked the Top 25 for the first time this season, TCU figures to have a tough time remaining in the rankings as it travels to Norman, Okla., for a battle with the powerful Sooners.
The Horned Frogs avoided getting caught looking ahead to this showdown, as they buried SMU last week 48-7 as a 24-point road favorite. TCU rolled up 498 yards, outrushed the Mustangs 271 to minus-8 and forced three turnovers to extend its winning streak to seven in a row. Also, the Frogs are on a 7-1 ATS roll, including four consecutive spread-covers in lined action entering this game.
Oklahoma was idle last week after pummeling Washington 55-14 as a 21-point road chalk. The Sooners have scored 57, 52 and 55 points in their first three games, while the defense has allowed a total of 42 points. Bob Stoops’ squad has won five straight regular-season games (4-0 ATS in lined action).
The Horned Frogs stunned Oklahoma three seasons ago in Norman, winning 17-10 as a 25-point road underdog. In three meetings since 1996, TCU is 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS, all as an underdog.
TCU comes into this contest averaging 43 points and 415.5 total yards per game, including 241 ypg on the ground, while the defense is surrendering just 7.8 points and 180.2 total ypg (27.8 rushing ypg).
Oklahoma junior QB Sam Bradford (79 percent completion rate, 882 yards, 12 TDs, two INTs) has been nearly flawless in leading an offense that’s averaging 556.7 yards per game (339 passing, 217.7 rushing). Defensively, the Sooners are giving up just 14 points and 232.7 yards per outing (63.3 rushing ypg).
The Frogs carry a bevy of positive pointspread streaks into this contest, including 4-1 on the road, 9-3 in non-conference play, 5-1 against the Big 12, 12-4-1 versus a winning team and 7-2 as a double-digit pup. For Oklahoma, the positive ATS trends include 10-3-1 at home (all as a favorite), 6-1 in non-conference, 8-1 in September and 13-6 after a spread-cover.
The over is on runs of 3-0 for Oklahoma overall, 4-1-1 for Oklahoma at home, 10-1 for Oklahoma in non-Big 12 action, 8-2 for Oklahoma in September, 8-3 for TCU on the highway and 7-1 for TCU following a bye.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TCU and OVER
Colorado (3-0, 2-0 ATS) vs. Florida State (2-1, 0-1 ATS)
at Jacksonville, Fla.
Fresh off an upset victory over West Virginia, Colorado travels across the country for a battle with Florida State, which figures to be in a foul mood after last week’s performance against Wake Forest.
Colorado eked out a 17-14 overtime victory over West Virginia last Thursday as a three-point home underdog, converting a short field goal in the extra session moments after the Mountaineers’ kicker hit the upright on his short field-goal try. The Buffs won despite committing two turnovers and allowing West Virginia to rush for 311 yards.
After fattening up on a couple of Division I-AA cupcakes (Western Carolina and Chattanooga) by a combined score of 115-7, the Seminoles stepped up in class last Saturday and managed just a single field goal in a 12-3 ACC-opening defeat to Wake Forest. The Seminoles, who failed as a four-point home favorite, had just 220 total yards and committed seven turnovers, including five combined interceptions by QBs D’Vontrey Richardson and Christian Ponder.
These teams met last year in Boulder, Colo., and Florida State scored a 16-6 win as a 4½-point road chalk, surviving a late Buffaloes drive to preserve the spread-cover.
Although this game is taking place just up the road from the FSU campus in Tallahassee, Fla., it’s technically a neutral-site affair, and the ‘Noles are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six at neutral sites. Colorado, meanwhile, is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 against squads with a winning record and 2-10 ATS in its last 12 following a spread-cover. Also, since coach Dan Hawkins took over in Boulder in 2006, the Buffs are 5-10-1 ATS as an underdog.
Florida State has topped the total in five of its last six neutral-site contests, but the under is 4-1 in the Seminoles’ last five in September, 11-2 in Colorado’s last 13 non-conference games and 5-0 in CU’s last five in September. Finally, last year’s meeting stayed well under the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
(22) Illinois (2-1, 0-2 ATS) at (12) Penn State (4-0, 3-0 ATS)
After feasting on inferior non-conference foes during the first month of the season, Penn State gets its first true test when it hosts 22nd-ranked Illinois in the Big Ten opener for both schools.
The Nittany Lions hammered Temple 45-3 last week, easily covering as a 28½-point home chalk. Joe Paterno’s troops have shown no mercy on their first four foes – Costal Carolina, Oregon State, Syracuse and Temple – outscoring them by a whopping 211-40 and easily covering in the three lined contests. The Lions, who are on a 5-0 run (4-0 ATS) since last year, have averaged 538.5 total ypg (274.2 rushing ypg), while yielding just 222.2 total ypg (52.2 rushing ypg).
Illinois has had two weeks to prepare for this showdown after struggling to put away Louisiana-Lafayette 20-17 on Sept. 13, never threatening to cover as a 25-point home chalk. In their only tough battle so far this season, the Illini lost 52-42 to Missouri as a 9½-point favorite in a neutral-site game back on Aug. 30, giving up 549 total yards, but amassing 532 yards.
The Illini hosted Penn State last year and pulled off a 27-20 upset victory as a three-point home underdog, forcing four turnovers and ending the Nittany Lions’ three-game winning streak in this rivalry. The underdog is 4-1 ATS and the visitor is 4-1 ATS in the last five head-to-head clashes, but going back to 1994, Penn State has won eight of 10 contests outright.
This game pits two versatile, dynamic QBs against one another. Illinois junior Juice Williams has completed 59.8 percent of his passes for 722 yards with seven TDs and five INTS, while adding 212 rushing yards and two scores. Williams’ counterpart is Penn State senior Daryll Clark, who is connecting on 57.8 percent of his tosses for 569 yards with six TDs and one pick to go along with 81 rushing yards and two additional TDs.
Although it has failed to cash in each of its last three lined games and six of the last nine, Illinois still sports positive ATS trends of 10-4 against winning teams, 15-6 following a SU win, 5-2 in September, 6-2 in Big Ten play, 6-2 as a double-digit pup, 4-0 as a double-digit road dog in conference, and it went 4-1 ATS in true road games in 2007. However, Ron Zook’s squad is just 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games on grass, and it has lost 13 of its last 14 conference openers.
Penn State failed to cash in each of its last four Big Ten games in 2007 and is 1-4 ATS in its last five against teams with a winning record. But the Lions are 11-6 ATS as a home favorite since 2005.
The over is 4-2 in the last six series battles between these schools, but the last two in State College have stayed low. Also, for Illinois, the over is on runs of 5-1 overall, 4-0 on the road and 5-2 in conference play, but the under is 9-1 in its last 10 on grass. Finally, the under is 14-5 in Penn State’s last 19 Big Ten tussles.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
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