ope:
:cripwalk: WELCOME BACK MY BROTHER AND BRINGING THE GOODS AS USUAL!!!!!!
*** EZWINNERS NCAA FOOTBALL ***
5 STAR: (109) WESTERN MICHIGAN (-4) over Temple
(Risking $550 to win $500)
1PM Central Time
5 STAR: (145) ALABAMA (+7)(-$120) over Georgia
(Risking $600 to win $500)
6:45PM Central Time
(Buy the 1/2 point)
3 STAR: (174) PENN STATE (-15.5) over Illinois
(Risking $330 to win $300)
7:10PM Central Time
2 STAR: (181) SAN JOSE STATE (+3) over Hawaii
(Risking $220 to win $200)
11:05PM Central Time
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5 STAR: (109) WESTERN MICHIGAN (-4) over Temple
(Risking $550 to win $500)
1PM Central Time
5 STAR: (145) ALABAMA (+7)(-$120) over Georgia
(Risking $600 to win $500)
6:45PM Central Time
(Buy the 1/2 point)
3 STAR: (174) PENN STATE (-15.5) over Illinois
(Risking $330 to win $300)
7:10PM Central Time
2 STAR: (181) SAN JOSE STATE (+3) over Hawaii
(Risking $220 to win $200)
11:05PM Central Time
<!-- / message -->
GATOR REPORT
NCAA “Tech” Game of the Week:
2 STAR SELECTION (2.5% of Bankroll)
WASHINGTON STATE +21½ over Oregon
The Ducks waddle back on to the road on Saturday to take on the Cougars in a Pac-10 contest. Oregon opened the season with three consecutive victories, including a draining 32-26 overtime decision at Purdue two weeks ago. Then last week, Oregon fell at home to Boise State 37-32.
Washington State opened its season in ugly fashion with three lopsided losses, but built some much-needed confidence last weekend with a 48-9 win over 1-AA Portland State.
Oregon comes into this game with major issues at the quarterback position. Nathan Costa tore an ACL back in August and is out for the season. Justin Roper took over the reins, but he suffered a less serious knee injury that has caused him to miss time. Now, Jeremiah Masoli suffered a head injury last weekend which leaves his status for Saturday's clash in question. True freshman Darron Thomas showed flashes of brilliance in the second half of the loss to Boise State, as he completed 13-of-25 passes for 210 yards and three touchdowns. Chris Harper threw three passes against Boise State, two of which were intercepted. Every Duck fan thinks Thomas should get the nod on Saturday; however, during the week he was riding in a car with a couple of teammates that crashed while street racing, which is a big red flag as the focus of Thomas and his team for this contest.
The Cougars are averaging 20 ppg and 335 total ypg, as they get accustomed to the new offensive schemes being implemented. Last week’s blowout win, even against a weak foe, shows progress has been made, and one of our strongest “new coach” handicapping keys is to play ON a team with a new head coach off a non-lined win.
With new head coaches, oddsmakers will likely take a “wait and see” attitude. A new coach can use a non-lined game against an inferior opponent to get some quality work in against a live opponent and build some confidence with a dominating win. Even with an easy win, the wagering public is likely to ignore or dismiss it, due to the level of competition. This means the line will not be adjusted against the team with the new coach, providing his team with line value. Such is the case here with the Cougars catching 3 TDs worth of points at home.
Oregon is 0-3 ATS as a road favorite with less than 13 days rest vs. Washington State, all coming since 2000, 0-3 ATS (-11.7 ppg) since at least 1980 as a road favorite of more than 18 points, and 0-5 ATS (-19.2 ppg) as a road favorite off a favorite SU loss since 1989, while Washington State is 3-0 ATS in the reverse role over the past 10 seasons.
The Cougars are also 4-0 ATS as a conference home dog vs. opponents off a SU loss since 1998.
Finally, our database research shows that Game 5 road favorites of 17+ points are 0-5-0 (-17.1 ppg) off allowing more points in each of its first 4 games. We look for an improving Cougar offense to keep this one close against a Duck team playing it conservative on the road.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: OREGON 28 WASHINGTON STATE 21
Gator Report NCAA Games of the Week:
>SEC GOW (1-1 ): Alabama +6½ over GEORGIA 7:45 EST
Alabama is 10-0-1 ATS (+11 ppg) since 1995 as an underdog of 2+ points vs. an undefeated opponent.
Georgia is:
0-5 ATS (-14.1 ppg) as an undefeated conference home team
0-3 (-22.7 ppg) SU & 0-3 ATS (-16.3 ppg) in home games from Game 4 on vs. undefeated conference foes since at least 1980
0-9 ATS (-9.9 ppg) as a home favorite of more than 4 points off 2 road/neutral site games, while Alabama is 7-0 ATS (+10.1 ppg) in the reverse role before Game 11
In a battle of unbeaten conference foes, road-weary favorites have struggled. Specifically, undefeated conference favorite of more than 6 points off 2 road favorite SU wins are 10-0 ATS since at least 1980 vs. undefeated opponents.
>Big 10 GOW (0-0-1 0.0): no play for this week
>CUSA GOW (1-0 +100): no play for this week
>PAC 10 GOW (1-0 +100): no play for this week
>ACC GOW (0-0): no play for this week
>MAC GOW (0-0): Northern Illinois -6½ over EASTERN MICHIGAN
The Huskies got a big injection of confidence with a dominating, 48-3, win over Indiana State.
The ROAD TEAM is 5-3 SU & 8-0 ATS in N ILLINOIS-E MICHIGAN series since ‘00
Eastern Michigan is:
0-8 ATS/1-11 ATS last 12/2-17 ATS last 19 games at home vs. opponent playing with revenge
0-6 (-7.7 ppg) all-time at home vs. opponent seeking revenge for a SU loss in the last matchup and won the matchup before that
>“BIG EASY” GOW (3-0 +300): RICE -17 over North Texas
North Texas is:
0-13 ATS (-13.2) as an underdog of 17½ - 41½ points
Rice is
8-0 ATS off an ATS loss of 10+ points and not an underdog of more than 30 points vs. an opponent off a SU loss
4-0 ATS as a home favorite of 8½–23 points since 2001
Sizeable home favorites have taken out their frustrations after getting whipped on the road as a big underdog. Specifically, home favorites of 11½-25 points off a road SU & ATS loss as an underdog of more than 17 points are 11-0 (+31.8 ppg) SU & 11-0 (+14.5 ppg) ATS since 1989 (2-0 already this season).
>Underdog GOW (1-1 -10): UCLA +7½ over Fresno State
Fresno State will have 4 starters from defense out for this game. They are:
0-12-1 ATS (-9.7 ppg) with a line between -14 and +8 off a non-conference game
0-3 ATS as a road favorite vs. Pac-10 since 1991
0-5 SU last 5 vs. Pac-10 and 0-4 ATS vs. Pac-10 when not getting 22+ points
0-6 ATS (-20 ppg) as a non-conference road favorite since 1990
UCLA is:
11-0 ATS (+12.1 ppg) as a home underdog of 6+ points since at least 1980, including upset win over Tennessee in this year’s opener.
NCAA “Tech” Game of the Week:
2 STAR SELECTION (2.5% of Bankroll)
WASHINGTON STATE +21½ over Oregon
The Ducks waddle back on to the road on Saturday to take on the Cougars in a Pac-10 contest. Oregon opened the season with three consecutive victories, including a draining 32-26 overtime decision at Purdue two weeks ago. Then last week, Oregon fell at home to Boise State 37-32.
Washington State opened its season in ugly fashion with three lopsided losses, but built some much-needed confidence last weekend with a 48-9 win over 1-AA Portland State.
Oregon comes into this game with major issues at the quarterback position. Nathan Costa tore an ACL back in August and is out for the season. Justin Roper took over the reins, but he suffered a less serious knee injury that has caused him to miss time. Now, Jeremiah Masoli suffered a head injury last weekend which leaves his status for Saturday's clash in question. True freshman Darron Thomas showed flashes of brilliance in the second half of the loss to Boise State, as he completed 13-of-25 passes for 210 yards and three touchdowns. Chris Harper threw three passes against Boise State, two of which were intercepted. Every Duck fan thinks Thomas should get the nod on Saturday; however, during the week he was riding in a car with a couple of teammates that crashed while street racing, which is a big red flag as the focus of Thomas and his team for this contest.
The Cougars are averaging 20 ppg and 335 total ypg, as they get accustomed to the new offensive schemes being implemented. Last week’s blowout win, even against a weak foe, shows progress has been made, and one of our strongest “new coach” handicapping keys is to play ON a team with a new head coach off a non-lined win.
With new head coaches, oddsmakers will likely take a “wait and see” attitude. A new coach can use a non-lined game against an inferior opponent to get some quality work in against a live opponent and build some confidence with a dominating win. Even with an easy win, the wagering public is likely to ignore or dismiss it, due to the level of competition. This means the line will not be adjusted against the team with the new coach, providing his team with line value. Such is the case here with the Cougars catching 3 TDs worth of points at home.
Oregon is 0-3 ATS as a road favorite with less than 13 days rest vs. Washington State, all coming since 2000, 0-3 ATS (-11.7 ppg) since at least 1980 as a road favorite of more than 18 points, and 0-5 ATS (-19.2 ppg) as a road favorite off a favorite SU loss since 1989, while Washington State is 3-0 ATS in the reverse role over the past 10 seasons.
The Cougars are also 4-0 ATS as a conference home dog vs. opponents off a SU loss since 1998.
Finally, our database research shows that Game 5 road favorites of 17+ points are 0-5-0 (-17.1 ppg) off allowing more points in each of its first 4 games. We look for an improving Cougar offense to keep this one close against a Duck team playing it conservative on the road.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: OREGON 28 WASHINGTON STATE 21
Gator Report NCAA Games of the Week:
>SEC GOW (1-1 ): Alabama +6½ over GEORGIA 7:45 EST
Alabama is 10-0-1 ATS (+11 ppg) since 1995 as an underdog of 2+ points vs. an undefeated opponent.
Georgia is:
0-5 ATS (-14.1 ppg) as an undefeated conference home team
0-3 (-22.7 ppg) SU & 0-3 ATS (-16.3 ppg) in home games from Game 4 on vs. undefeated conference foes since at least 1980
0-9 ATS (-9.9 ppg) as a home favorite of more than 4 points off 2 road/neutral site games, while Alabama is 7-0 ATS (+10.1 ppg) in the reverse role before Game 11
In a battle of unbeaten conference foes, road-weary favorites have struggled. Specifically, undefeated conference favorite of more than 6 points off 2 road favorite SU wins are 10-0 ATS since at least 1980 vs. undefeated opponents.
>Big 10 GOW (0-0-1 0.0): no play for this week
>CUSA GOW (1-0 +100): no play for this week
>PAC 10 GOW (1-0 +100): no play for this week
>ACC GOW (0-0): no play for this week
>MAC GOW (0-0): Northern Illinois -6½ over EASTERN MICHIGAN
The Huskies got a big injection of confidence with a dominating, 48-3, win over Indiana State.
The ROAD TEAM is 5-3 SU & 8-0 ATS in N ILLINOIS-E MICHIGAN series since ‘00
Eastern Michigan is:
0-8 ATS/1-11 ATS last 12/2-17 ATS last 19 games at home vs. opponent playing with revenge
0-6 (-7.7 ppg) all-time at home vs. opponent seeking revenge for a SU loss in the last matchup and won the matchup before that
>“BIG EASY” GOW (3-0 +300): RICE -17 over North Texas
North Texas is:
0-13 ATS (-13.2) as an underdog of 17½ - 41½ points
Rice is
8-0 ATS off an ATS loss of 10+ points and not an underdog of more than 30 points vs. an opponent off a SU loss
4-0 ATS as a home favorite of 8½–23 points since 2001
Sizeable home favorites have taken out their frustrations after getting whipped on the road as a big underdog. Specifically, home favorites of 11½-25 points off a road SU & ATS loss as an underdog of more than 17 points are 11-0 (+31.8 ppg) SU & 11-0 (+14.5 ppg) ATS since 1989 (2-0 already this season).
>Underdog GOW (1-1 -10): UCLA +7½ over Fresno State
Fresno State will have 4 starters from defense out for this game. They are:
0-12-1 ATS (-9.7 ppg) with a line between -14 and +8 off a non-conference game
0-3 ATS as a road favorite vs. Pac-10 since 1991
0-5 SU last 5 vs. Pac-10 and 0-4 ATS vs. Pac-10 when not getting 22+ points
0-6 ATS (-20 ppg) as a non-conference road favorite since 1990
UCLA is:
11-0 ATS (+12.1 ppg) as a home underdog of 6+ points since at least 1980, including upset win over Tennessee in this year’s opener.
Cajun-Sports Executive Report-Saturday
3:30 PM EDT
4 STAR SELECTION
Tennessee +7 over AUBURN
A couple of SEC teams fresh off disappointing losses collide this weekend, as the Tigers host the Volunteers. Tennessee opened league play last weekend at home and got embarrassed by Florida , 30-6. Auburn battled LSU in last weekend's most intriguing collegiate game. The result was a heart-breaking 26-21 setback in front of the home crowd for Auburn .
The Vols obviously struggled against a terrific Gator defense, but figures to bounce back here. Star tailback Arian Foster has rushed for 233 yards on an average of 6 ypc, while QB Crompton will have to pick up his play.
Tennessee's defense should be what keeps them in this game, as they certainly put forth a strong effort last weekend against Florida 's explosive offense. The Gators scored only two offensive touchdowns and finished with a mere 243 total yards. Florida attempted 39 running plays and averaged fewer than four yards per carry. Opponents have only managed 20 ppg and 269 total ypg against the Vols, who have limited foes to 95 rushing ypg on 3 ypc. The pass defense has been strong as well, registering seven interceptions to date.
Auburn has earned the reputation of being a power running team with such star tailbacks as Bo Jackson, Rudi Johnson, Cadillac Williams and Ronnie Brown. Many fans were not happy when it was announced that the Tigers would be installing a spread offense this season, and many of them are still not happy. Through the first four games of the campaign, Auburn is generating just 21 ppg and 355 total ypg. Against LSU last weekend, Auburn managed to rush for only 70 yards on 36 attempts. The lack of production on the ground put a great deal of pressure on QB Todd, and his two interceptions proved costly.
Defensively, few teams in the nation have been as strong as Auburn . The Tigers are yielding 10 ppg and 260 total ypg, impressive to say the least. LSU was able to gain 398 yards versus Auburn last week in what was the worst defensive performance by Tuberville's team this season. The defense allowed LSU to average 15.7 yards per pass completion and 4.7 yards per rushing attempt.
Off the tough loss to a Top 10 team and defending national champion, it will be hard for Auburn to bounce back strong; meanwhile, the Volunteers do figure to bring their best effort here, as we look to play ON a team off a nationally televised blowout loss.
As an old handicapper proverb states, “a team is never as good or as bad as its last game”. Blowouts do happen, and when they occur on a national stage, they can leave a lasting impression on viewers. The public regards the losing team as woeful and won’t want to touch them the following week. The oddsmakers know this and adjust the line accordingly, providing good value on the losing team. Such is the case with Tennessee .
The Vols have a history of rebounding after going down against the Gators, as they are 5-0 SU (+25.2 ppg) & 5-0 ATS (+11.1 ppg) off a SU loss to Florida and not favored by more than 26 points. Tennessee is also:
4-0 SU (+9.8 ppg) & 4-0 ATS (+10 ppg) off a home SU loss of 14+ points since 2002, all coming on the road vs. conference foes.
6-0-1 ATS as an underdog vs. opponents off an ATS loss
7-0-2 ATS as an underdog vs. conference opponents off an ATS loss
We also like to play AGAINST a team with a good SU record but a bad ATS record. Such teams are the most overvalued on the board. Due to their good SU mark, they will continue to get a lot of attention, and thus money, from the public, preserving the line value in playing against them. Auburn has failed to cover 3 straight now, and they are 0-5 ATS as a conference home favorite off 2 ATS losses, failing to cover by a whopping 17 ppg!
As TD dogs on the road where nobody expects them to perform, we look for the Volunteers to hang tough with the Tigers and take this one down to the gun to earn at least a spread win.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: AUBURN 28 TENNESSEE 27
__________________________________________________ _________
3:30 PM ET
4 STAR SELECTION
UCLA +7½ over Fresno State
The Bulldogs, still clinging to a Top 25 slot, hit the road again this weekend, for the in-state trip to Los Angeles where they will face the Bruins at the Rose Bowl.
Last weekend, Fresno State had to play into double-overtime against the Toledo Rockets on the road and narrowly escaped with a 55-54 decision in Ohio .
As for the Bruins, they began the 2008 campaign with a stunning 27-24 overtime victory against then-ranked Tennessee . Unfortunately, UCLA was crushed at BYU, 59-0, in their next outing, then were handed a 31-10 setback by fellow Pac-10 Conference member Arizona last weekend.
Fresno State quarterback Tom Brandstater stepped up his efforts by going 22-of-28 for 231 yards and four touchdowns and more importantly, no interceptions. Although he tends to play it safe for the most part, Brandstater has done well not to make mistakes so far, tossing just a single interception in 79 pass attempts.
For as strong as the defense has been for the Bulldogs so far this season and in recent years, the effort at Toledo wasn’t up to standards, as the Bulldogs were torched for almost 600 yards by Toledo , giving up 297 yards on the ground alone. Fresno State is now ranked 100th in the country in terms of total defense, allowing an average of 424 ypg. Part of the problem is that the squad is not getting enough of a push at the line of scrimmage.
UCLA quarterback Kevin Craft continues to have his ups and downs for the Bruins offense, and he has not got much help from the running game. The defense has also struggled, being on the field so much, but with some healthy bodies returning to the lineup, we look for improvement across the board. Here, they stand a very good chance against a team that is tired, hurting, and road weary.
Fresno State allowed two rushers to clear the century mark last week and gave up a robust 6.5 yards per carry on the night. Mounting injuries along the defensive line forced Fresno State to turn to youth at that spot. Four defensive starters for the Bulldogs will sit out this game, allowing us to play AGAINST a team, especially a favorite, suffering from a cluster of injuries.
If a defense or offense is missing several starters all at once, the team can be very vulnerable to fatigue in addition to being unable to replace the absent talent. A team with a single unit that is missing several key starters and reserves, such as an offensive line without 2+ starters or a defensive backfield missing its top 3 cornerbacks, also figures to struggle.
The Bulldogs are simply in no shape or condition for a dominating game here, as they are:
0-12-1 ATS (-9.7 ppg) with a line between -14 and +8 off a non-conference game
0-3 ATS as a road favorite vs. Pac-10 since 1991
0-5 SU last 5 vs. Pac-10 and 0-4 ATS vs. Pac-10 when not getting 22+ points
0-6 ATS (-20 ppg) as a non-conference road favorite since 1990
In a very simple but very strong situation, road teams favored by more than a FG off a favorite OT win in which they allowed 14+ points have been extremely flat. Fresno qualifies for a related NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM that states:
Play AGAINST a road favorite of 3+ points off an OT SU win allowing 14+ points (not as an underdog of 3+ points) in its last game and not a non-conference home favorite SU & ATS win before that.
Since 1999, these teams are a ghastly 0-23-1 ATS, including 0-3 ATS last season.
Meanwhile, the Bruins will exception to being a big underdog to a WAC team, as they are 11-0 ATS (+12.1 ppg) as a home underdog of 6+ points since at least 1980, including upset win over Tennessee in this year’s opener. We look for the Bruins to bounce back here with a strong effort and stand a great chance of pulling off another outright upset victory against the road-weary Bulldogs.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: UCLA 31 FRESNO STATE 27
__________________________________________________ ____
7:45 PM EDT
4 STAR SELECTION
Alabama +6½ over GEORGIA
In the game of the week, the Bulldogs welcome the Crimson Tide for an SEC showdown of Top 10 teams.
Both schools are sitting at 4-0 on the young season and coming off big road wins. Alabama continues to impress with each passing week. They opened the season with a rout of a good Clemson program and have continued the strong play with wins over Tulane, Western Kentucky and most recently blasted Arkansas , 49-14. In fact, the Tide's offensive eruption against the Razorbacks in their SEC-opener was the most points by Alabama in an SEC game since 1990.
Looking to bring a halt to Alabama 's momentum is Georgia , which moved to 4-0 on the season with a solid 27-10 victory at Arizona State . Prior to that, the Bulldogs had rather bland wins over Georgia Southern and South Carolina , sandwiched around a rout of Central Michigan .
The Tide are certainly rolling on offense this year, as they are averaging 36 ppg on 388 yards of total offense. The ground game is the most productive phase of the offense, as the team is churning out 237 yards per game rushing the football, on a healthy 5.9 yards per carry. Quarterback John Parker-Wilson is a savvy signal-caller with the ability to manage a game quite well. He has completed nearly 60 percent of his throws thus far, going for 542 yards, with five TDs and just one INT.
Few teams are getting it done as well as Alabama on the defensive side of the football. The team is yielding a mere 9.2 ppg and that is more impressive considering the team has held solid teams in Clemson and Arkansas to a combined 24 points. The rush defense has been particularly stout, ranking among the nation's best at a meager 55 yards per game on 2.2 ypc. Every level of the defense has excelled thus far.
The Bulldogs do a lot of the same things offensively that the Crimson Tide do. Georgia is averaging 36 ppg on the year and enjoys mixing up the run and the pass.
Heisman hopeful Knowshon Moreno, the standout sophomore tailback is a dangerous runner, averaging 114 yards per game on 6.6 yards per carry. QB Matthew Stafford has also been impressive in terms of managing the game this year and is currently completing just over 60 percent of his passes, with five TDs and no interceptions.
The Georgia defense has dominated the line of scrimmage thus far and has completely shut down opposing ground games, giving up just 45.8 yards rushing per game on 2 yards per carry. The pass defense has been a little more forgiving.
Last year, Alabama was 3-0 heading into the Georgia game. This year, the Tide is 4-0 getting ready to play Georgia .
The difference? Last year, Tide coach Nick Saban was warning everyone the bubble was going to burst. This year, Saban seems a little happier with the caliber of his team week to week. Even last year, ‘Bama only lost by 3 to the Bulldogs and the Tide has not lost a game by more than 7 points under Saban.
The Tide's offensive and defensive lines are clearly the strength of this team, and its here in the pits where Alabama should exert themselves.
Alabama is a tremendous 10-0-1 ATS (+11 ppg) since 1995 as an underdog of 2+ points vs. undefeated opponents, while Georgia is 0-5 ATS (-14.1 ppg) as an undefeated conference home team. The Bulldogs are also:
0-3 SU (-22.7 ppg ) & 0-3 (-16.3 ppg) in home games from Game 4 on vs. undefeated conference foes since at least 1980
0-9 ATS (-9.9 ppg) as a home favorite of more than 4 points off 2 road/neutral site games/Alabama is 7-0 ATS (+10.1 ppg) in the reverse role before Game 11
Finally, we have an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM showing that in a battle of unbeaten conference foes, road-weary favorites have struggled. It states:
Play AGAINST an undefeated conference favorite of more than 6 points off 2 road favorite SU wins vs. an undefeated opponent.
Since at least 1980 these teams are 0-10 ATS. Georgia will have its hands full all day with a very confident and well-coached Crimson Tide team that should at least cover the spread in what should be an SEC classic going down to the wire.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: GEORGIA 24 ALABAMA 23
__________________________________________________ ___________
10:00 PM EDT
3 STAR SELECTION
Stanford +3 over WASHINGTON
The Huskies hope to break into the win column for the first time this season, when the Cardinal pay them a visit for a Pac-10 bout Saturday night. Stanford notched a 23-10 win over San Jose State last weekend to even their record on the season at 2-2.
This is the third game of a three-game homestand for the Huskies, who got steam-rolled by second-ranked Oklahoma two weeks ago, 55-14. It's been a horrible start for the Huskies, who've faced three opponents that were all ranked when they met.
Stanford’s biggest threat on offense has been running back Toby Gerhart, who rushed for a career-high 148 yards and a touchdown against San Jose State . He is averaging 102 ypg on the ground, which ranks third in the Pac-10. Quarterback Tavita Pritchard struggled with his accuracy, finishing with 159 yards; however, he did add 40 yards and a TD on the ground. As a team, the Cardinal churned out 204 rushing yards while averaging 5.7 ypc. It's a good bet coach Jim Harbaugh sticks with the ground game against a Washington defense that has been exposed often.
The Cardinal defense held its ground after falling behind, 10-0. San Jose State managed just 38 total yards in the second half, including -24 yards in the fourth quarter. They put relentless pressure on the quarterback, finishing with eight sacks. The Cardinal now rank 10th nationally with three sacks per game. On top of that, the defense held the Spartans to 3-of-13 on third downs.
Their last time out, the Huskies became the latest team to find out just how tough Oklahoma is. They ran for just 87 yards on 2.6 ypc, and were basically never able to finish drives. Defensively, the Huskies rank at the very bottom of the FBS in nearly every major statistical category. They are 118th in total defense and 116th in scoring defense and simply are not in a position to be favored.
One of our handicapping strategies is to play ON an underdog or single-digit favorite that has a net 2+ offensive/defensive YPR. A college football team that can successfully run the ball and defend the run should enjoy success. A strong running game can overcome turnovers and spotty QB play. College games have more plays than the NFL contests, allowing a team with a stronger running game more opportunities to exert their physical dominance, especially as their opponent wears down and gets tired. This obviously favors The Cardinal in this game.
We also like to play AGAINST a favorite with a defense among the worst quartile in points allowed. Bad defensive teams are very unreliable as favorites.
This looms as potentially a make-or-break game for the season and for Willingham's future at Washington, so many are backing the home team here; however, the Huskies are now 11-28 under Willingham, who is in his fourth season, and if they couldn't win for him before, it's unlikely they can now with this additional pressure. This is why we like to
play AGAINST a team with a short-term head coach that is on the “hot seat”, unless he’s beloved and respected by his players.
If a coach hasn’t turned a program around in the usual 3-year “honeymoon” period and is under fire, the added pressure is not likely to help. He probably worked hard and gave it his best effort since his arrival. If that’s not been enough, it’s not likely to get better. The coach may take drastic measures like firing and hiring new assistants, bring in new offensive and/or defensive schemes, and/or throw young, untested players onto the field, but there are usually signs of desperation. Additionally, unless the coach is revered by the team, there’s no reason for them to work harder in practice and hustle more in games to save his job. In fact, it gives them an excuse to under-perform, since the coach will get the blame and not them.
The last time the 'Dawgs were 0-3 in 2004 it also played its fourth game of the season against the Cardinal. The Huskies lost a 27-13 decision in Palo Alto that dropped them to 0-4 and helped seal the fate of then-coach Keith Gilbertson.
In looking at some more numbers, we find that Stanford is 11-0-1 ATS (+9.6 ppg) as a conference road underdog of less than 9 points not off a conference home SU loss vs. an opponent off a SU loss and 5-0 ATS (+18.6 ppg) with less than 13 days rest as an underdog of more than 3 points vs. Washington.
Our database research shows that home favorites and single-digit underdogs have been disastrous with rest off a home loss of 4 TDs or more. This is documented by an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM which states:
Play AGAINST a home/neutral team (not an underdog of more than 9 points) with 8+ days rest off a home/neutral site SU loss of 28+ points vs. an opponent not off a SU & ATS loss as an underdog of 19+ points.
Since the mid-1980s, these teams are an awful 0-15 ATS, failing to cover by more than 13 ppg on average. Washington is next in line of qualifying teams.
Finally, we like to Play ON a team that has the line moving against it, despite more money being wagered on its opponent.
The biggest sportsbooks sometimes don't move a line based upon the amount of money, but rather upon what they consider sharp money. This "reverse line move" reveals where the smart money is, even if its less overall than the square money. There's a reason it's called "smart" money. Here, we have the line dipping from -4’ to -3, despite the fact that Washington is getting more action. Again, this tells us the smart money is on The Cardinal for this game, which we agree with as the Huskies appear to have given up on Ty Willingham.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: STANFORD 24 WASHINGTON 21
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3:30 PM EDT
4 STAR SELECTION
Tennessee +7 over AUBURN
A couple of SEC teams fresh off disappointing losses collide this weekend, as the Tigers host the Volunteers. Tennessee opened league play last weekend at home and got embarrassed by Florida , 30-6. Auburn battled LSU in last weekend's most intriguing collegiate game. The result was a heart-breaking 26-21 setback in front of the home crowd for Auburn .
The Vols obviously struggled against a terrific Gator defense, but figures to bounce back here. Star tailback Arian Foster has rushed for 233 yards on an average of 6 ypc, while QB Crompton will have to pick up his play.
Tennessee's defense should be what keeps them in this game, as they certainly put forth a strong effort last weekend against Florida 's explosive offense. The Gators scored only two offensive touchdowns and finished with a mere 243 total yards. Florida attempted 39 running plays and averaged fewer than four yards per carry. Opponents have only managed 20 ppg and 269 total ypg against the Vols, who have limited foes to 95 rushing ypg on 3 ypc. The pass defense has been strong as well, registering seven interceptions to date.
Auburn has earned the reputation of being a power running team with such star tailbacks as Bo Jackson, Rudi Johnson, Cadillac Williams and Ronnie Brown. Many fans were not happy when it was announced that the Tigers would be installing a spread offense this season, and many of them are still not happy. Through the first four games of the campaign, Auburn is generating just 21 ppg and 355 total ypg. Against LSU last weekend, Auburn managed to rush for only 70 yards on 36 attempts. The lack of production on the ground put a great deal of pressure on QB Todd, and his two interceptions proved costly.
Defensively, few teams in the nation have been as strong as Auburn . The Tigers are yielding 10 ppg and 260 total ypg, impressive to say the least. LSU was able to gain 398 yards versus Auburn last week in what was the worst defensive performance by Tuberville's team this season. The defense allowed LSU to average 15.7 yards per pass completion and 4.7 yards per rushing attempt.
Off the tough loss to a Top 10 team and defending national champion, it will be hard for Auburn to bounce back strong; meanwhile, the Volunteers do figure to bring their best effort here, as we look to play ON a team off a nationally televised blowout loss.
As an old handicapper proverb states, “a team is never as good or as bad as its last game”. Blowouts do happen, and when they occur on a national stage, they can leave a lasting impression on viewers. The public regards the losing team as woeful and won’t want to touch them the following week. The oddsmakers know this and adjust the line accordingly, providing good value on the losing team. Such is the case with Tennessee .
The Vols have a history of rebounding after going down against the Gators, as they are 5-0 SU (+25.2 ppg) & 5-0 ATS (+11.1 ppg) off a SU loss to Florida and not favored by more than 26 points. Tennessee is also:
4-0 SU (+9.8 ppg) & 4-0 ATS (+10 ppg) off a home SU loss of 14+ points since 2002, all coming on the road vs. conference foes.
6-0-1 ATS as an underdog vs. opponents off an ATS loss
7-0-2 ATS as an underdog vs. conference opponents off an ATS loss
We also like to play AGAINST a team with a good SU record but a bad ATS record. Such teams are the most overvalued on the board. Due to their good SU mark, they will continue to get a lot of attention, and thus money, from the public, preserving the line value in playing against them. Auburn has failed to cover 3 straight now, and they are 0-5 ATS as a conference home favorite off 2 ATS losses, failing to cover by a whopping 17 ppg!
As TD dogs on the road where nobody expects them to perform, we look for the Volunteers to hang tough with the Tigers and take this one down to the gun to earn at least a spread win.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: AUBURN 28 TENNESSEE 27
__________________________________________________ _________
3:30 PM ET
4 STAR SELECTION
UCLA +7½ over Fresno State
The Bulldogs, still clinging to a Top 25 slot, hit the road again this weekend, for the in-state trip to Los Angeles where they will face the Bruins at the Rose Bowl.
Last weekend, Fresno State had to play into double-overtime against the Toledo Rockets on the road and narrowly escaped with a 55-54 decision in Ohio .
As for the Bruins, they began the 2008 campaign with a stunning 27-24 overtime victory against then-ranked Tennessee . Unfortunately, UCLA was crushed at BYU, 59-0, in their next outing, then were handed a 31-10 setback by fellow Pac-10 Conference member Arizona last weekend.
Fresno State quarterback Tom Brandstater stepped up his efforts by going 22-of-28 for 231 yards and four touchdowns and more importantly, no interceptions. Although he tends to play it safe for the most part, Brandstater has done well not to make mistakes so far, tossing just a single interception in 79 pass attempts.
For as strong as the defense has been for the Bulldogs so far this season and in recent years, the effort at Toledo wasn’t up to standards, as the Bulldogs were torched for almost 600 yards by Toledo , giving up 297 yards on the ground alone. Fresno State is now ranked 100th in the country in terms of total defense, allowing an average of 424 ypg. Part of the problem is that the squad is not getting enough of a push at the line of scrimmage.
UCLA quarterback Kevin Craft continues to have his ups and downs for the Bruins offense, and he has not got much help from the running game. The defense has also struggled, being on the field so much, but with some healthy bodies returning to the lineup, we look for improvement across the board. Here, they stand a very good chance against a team that is tired, hurting, and road weary.
Fresno State allowed two rushers to clear the century mark last week and gave up a robust 6.5 yards per carry on the night. Mounting injuries along the defensive line forced Fresno State to turn to youth at that spot. Four defensive starters for the Bulldogs will sit out this game, allowing us to play AGAINST a team, especially a favorite, suffering from a cluster of injuries.
If a defense or offense is missing several starters all at once, the team can be very vulnerable to fatigue in addition to being unable to replace the absent talent. A team with a single unit that is missing several key starters and reserves, such as an offensive line without 2+ starters or a defensive backfield missing its top 3 cornerbacks, also figures to struggle.
The Bulldogs are simply in no shape or condition for a dominating game here, as they are:
0-12-1 ATS (-9.7 ppg) with a line between -14 and +8 off a non-conference game
0-3 ATS as a road favorite vs. Pac-10 since 1991
0-5 SU last 5 vs. Pac-10 and 0-4 ATS vs. Pac-10 when not getting 22+ points
0-6 ATS (-20 ppg) as a non-conference road favorite since 1990
In a very simple but very strong situation, road teams favored by more than a FG off a favorite OT win in which they allowed 14+ points have been extremely flat. Fresno qualifies for a related NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM that states:
Play AGAINST a road favorite of 3+ points off an OT SU win allowing 14+ points (not as an underdog of 3+ points) in its last game and not a non-conference home favorite SU & ATS win before that.
Since 1999, these teams are a ghastly 0-23-1 ATS, including 0-3 ATS last season.
Meanwhile, the Bruins will exception to being a big underdog to a WAC team, as they are 11-0 ATS (+12.1 ppg) as a home underdog of 6+ points since at least 1980, including upset win over Tennessee in this year’s opener. We look for the Bruins to bounce back here with a strong effort and stand a great chance of pulling off another outright upset victory against the road-weary Bulldogs.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: UCLA 31 FRESNO STATE 27
__________________________________________________ ____
7:45 PM EDT
4 STAR SELECTION
Alabama +6½ over GEORGIA
In the game of the week, the Bulldogs welcome the Crimson Tide for an SEC showdown of Top 10 teams.
Both schools are sitting at 4-0 on the young season and coming off big road wins. Alabama continues to impress with each passing week. They opened the season with a rout of a good Clemson program and have continued the strong play with wins over Tulane, Western Kentucky and most recently blasted Arkansas , 49-14. In fact, the Tide's offensive eruption against the Razorbacks in their SEC-opener was the most points by Alabama in an SEC game since 1990.
Looking to bring a halt to Alabama 's momentum is Georgia , which moved to 4-0 on the season with a solid 27-10 victory at Arizona State . Prior to that, the Bulldogs had rather bland wins over Georgia Southern and South Carolina , sandwiched around a rout of Central Michigan .
The Tide are certainly rolling on offense this year, as they are averaging 36 ppg on 388 yards of total offense. The ground game is the most productive phase of the offense, as the team is churning out 237 yards per game rushing the football, on a healthy 5.9 yards per carry. Quarterback John Parker-Wilson is a savvy signal-caller with the ability to manage a game quite well. He has completed nearly 60 percent of his throws thus far, going for 542 yards, with five TDs and just one INT.
Few teams are getting it done as well as Alabama on the defensive side of the football. The team is yielding a mere 9.2 ppg and that is more impressive considering the team has held solid teams in Clemson and Arkansas to a combined 24 points. The rush defense has been particularly stout, ranking among the nation's best at a meager 55 yards per game on 2.2 ypc. Every level of the defense has excelled thus far.
The Bulldogs do a lot of the same things offensively that the Crimson Tide do. Georgia is averaging 36 ppg on the year and enjoys mixing up the run and the pass.
Heisman hopeful Knowshon Moreno, the standout sophomore tailback is a dangerous runner, averaging 114 yards per game on 6.6 yards per carry. QB Matthew Stafford has also been impressive in terms of managing the game this year and is currently completing just over 60 percent of his passes, with five TDs and no interceptions.
The Georgia defense has dominated the line of scrimmage thus far and has completely shut down opposing ground games, giving up just 45.8 yards rushing per game on 2 yards per carry. The pass defense has been a little more forgiving.
Last year, Alabama was 3-0 heading into the Georgia game. This year, the Tide is 4-0 getting ready to play Georgia .
The difference? Last year, Tide coach Nick Saban was warning everyone the bubble was going to burst. This year, Saban seems a little happier with the caliber of his team week to week. Even last year, ‘Bama only lost by 3 to the Bulldogs and the Tide has not lost a game by more than 7 points under Saban.
The Tide's offensive and defensive lines are clearly the strength of this team, and its here in the pits where Alabama should exert themselves.
Alabama is a tremendous 10-0-1 ATS (+11 ppg) since 1995 as an underdog of 2+ points vs. undefeated opponents, while Georgia is 0-5 ATS (-14.1 ppg) as an undefeated conference home team. The Bulldogs are also:
0-3 SU (-22.7 ppg ) & 0-3 (-16.3 ppg) in home games from Game 4 on vs. undefeated conference foes since at least 1980
0-9 ATS (-9.9 ppg) as a home favorite of more than 4 points off 2 road/neutral site games/Alabama is 7-0 ATS (+10.1 ppg) in the reverse role before Game 11
Finally, we have an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM showing that in a battle of unbeaten conference foes, road-weary favorites have struggled. It states:
Play AGAINST an undefeated conference favorite of more than 6 points off 2 road favorite SU wins vs. an undefeated opponent.
Since at least 1980 these teams are 0-10 ATS. Georgia will have its hands full all day with a very confident and well-coached Crimson Tide team that should at least cover the spread in what should be an SEC classic going down to the wire.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: GEORGIA 24 ALABAMA 23
__________________________________________________ ___________
10:00 PM EDT
3 STAR SELECTION
Stanford +3 over WASHINGTON
The Huskies hope to break into the win column for the first time this season, when the Cardinal pay them a visit for a Pac-10 bout Saturday night. Stanford notched a 23-10 win over San Jose State last weekend to even their record on the season at 2-2.
This is the third game of a three-game homestand for the Huskies, who got steam-rolled by second-ranked Oklahoma two weeks ago, 55-14. It's been a horrible start for the Huskies, who've faced three opponents that were all ranked when they met.
Stanford’s biggest threat on offense has been running back Toby Gerhart, who rushed for a career-high 148 yards and a touchdown against San Jose State . He is averaging 102 ypg on the ground, which ranks third in the Pac-10. Quarterback Tavita Pritchard struggled with his accuracy, finishing with 159 yards; however, he did add 40 yards and a TD on the ground. As a team, the Cardinal churned out 204 rushing yards while averaging 5.7 ypc. It's a good bet coach Jim Harbaugh sticks with the ground game against a Washington defense that has been exposed often.
The Cardinal defense held its ground after falling behind, 10-0. San Jose State managed just 38 total yards in the second half, including -24 yards in the fourth quarter. They put relentless pressure on the quarterback, finishing with eight sacks. The Cardinal now rank 10th nationally with three sacks per game. On top of that, the defense held the Spartans to 3-of-13 on third downs.
Their last time out, the Huskies became the latest team to find out just how tough Oklahoma is. They ran for just 87 yards on 2.6 ypc, and were basically never able to finish drives. Defensively, the Huskies rank at the very bottom of the FBS in nearly every major statistical category. They are 118th in total defense and 116th in scoring defense and simply are not in a position to be favored.
One of our handicapping strategies is to play ON an underdog or single-digit favorite that has a net 2+ offensive/defensive YPR. A college football team that can successfully run the ball and defend the run should enjoy success. A strong running game can overcome turnovers and spotty QB play. College games have more plays than the NFL contests, allowing a team with a stronger running game more opportunities to exert their physical dominance, especially as their opponent wears down and gets tired. This obviously favors The Cardinal in this game.
We also like to play AGAINST a favorite with a defense among the worst quartile in points allowed. Bad defensive teams are very unreliable as favorites.
This looms as potentially a make-or-break game for the season and for Willingham's future at Washington, so many are backing the home team here; however, the Huskies are now 11-28 under Willingham, who is in his fourth season, and if they couldn't win for him before, it's unlikely they can now with this additional pressure. This is why we like to
play AGAINST a team with a short-term head coach that is on the “hot seat”, unless he’s beloved and respected by his players.
If a coach hasn’t turned a program around in the usual 3-year “honeymoon” period and is under fire, the added pressure is not likely to help. He probably worked hard and gave it his best effort since his arrival. If that’s not been enough, it’s not likely to get better. The coach may take drastic measures like firing and hiring new assistants, bring in new offensive and/or defensive schemes, and/or throw young, untested players onto the field, but there are usually signs of desperation. Additionally, unless the coach is revered by the team, there’s no reason for them to work harder in practice and hustle more in games to save his job. In fact, it gives them an excuse to under-perform, since the coach will get the blame and not them.
The last time the 'Dawgs were 0-3 in 2004 it also played its fourth game of the season against the Cardinal. The Huskies lost a 27-13 decision in Palo Alto that dropped them to 0-4 and helped seal the fate of then-coach Keith Gilbertson.
In looking at some more numbers, we find that Stanford is 11-0-1 ATS (+9.6 ppg) as a conference road underdog of less than 9 points not off a conference home SU loss vs. an opponent off a SU loss and 5-0 ATS (+18.6 ppg) with less than 13 days rest as an underdog of more than 3 points vs. Washington.
Our database research shows that home favorites and single-digit underdogs have been disastrous with rest off a home loss of 4 TDs or more. This is documented by an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM which states:
Play AGAINST a home/neutral team (not an underdog of more than 9 points) with 8+ days rest off a home/neutral site SU loss of 28+ points vs. an opponent not off a SU & ATS loss as an underdog of 19+ points.
Since the mid-1980s, these teams are an awful 0-15 ATS, failing to cover by more than 13 ppg on average. Washington is next in line of qualifying teams.
Finally, we like to Play ON a team that has the line moving against it, despite more money being wagered on its opponent.
The biggest sportsbooks sometimes don't move a line based upon the amount of money, but rather upon what they consider sharp money. This "reverse line move" reveals where the smart money is, even if its less overall than the square money. There's a reason it's called "smart" money. Here, we have the line dipping from -4’ to -3, despite the fact that Washington is getting more action. Again, this tells us the smart money is on The Cardinal for this game, which we agree with as the Huskies appear to have given up on Ty Willingham.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: STANFORD 24 WASHINGTON 21
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Sports Marketwatch
Sports Marketwatch - College Football Edition
NCAA Football Week 5
9/26/2008
by Mike Norris at Sports Insights
SportsInsights
Welcome to the inaugural edition of the NCAA Football Marketwatch. The team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NCAA Football point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketplace!
Every week we speak directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Let's take a look at what’s in store for this week in College Football.
Sports Marketplace – NCAA Week 5
Recapping Week 4
This is our first year providing the NCAA Football Marketwatch, and we are following an undesirable downward trend. After a hot start to the season, last week's 0-3 record dropped us to an even 6-6 for 2008. Tennessee looked like they never stood a chance against Florida, and Mississippi couldn't hang with Vanderbilt in the second half. Auburn was looking good against LSU, but faltered down the stretch and lost by five. We're hoping for a reversal of trends this week, after all the season is a roller coaster of ups and downs.
If you enjoy the insights this column provides, please be sure to visit SportsInsights.com and sign up for a Free 7-Day membership. We are the leader in sports betting information and statistics.
Overall = 6-6 = 50.0%
NCAA WEEK 5
For the second consecutive week the top match up takes place in an SEC battle between top-10 teams, as Alabama travels to play Georgia between the hedges. Both teams have a plethora of playmakers on offense and know how to stop their opponents on defense. Two other top-25 match ups take place this weekend. The first sees No. 2 Oklahoma host No.24 Texas Christian. The second features two teams hoping to win the Big Ten with No.12 Penn State hosting No. 22 Illinois.
Warning to all new readers of the NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch column: in order to follow our selections, you’ll need ice running through your veins. Be prepared to take up meditation or acupuncture to calm the nerves. The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too go to be true, there is a reason. The underlining theme every week is line value. You’ll consistently need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.
We're expecting heavy action on two of the top-25 match ups, with the TCU-Oklahoma point spread possibly scaring some bettors. Other games that should draw lots of action include Wisconsin at Michigan, Maryland at Clemson, and North Carolina at Miami (FL). Visit SportsInsights.com to view wagering statistics on NCAA games from multiple online sportsbooks. Here is a trio of line value games we are keying on.
NCAA Sports MarketWatch Week 5 – Games to Watch
Pittsburgh vs Syracuse (9/27 12P)
Pittsburgh opened the season as a top-25 team before a very disappointing home loss at the hands of Bowling Green. Since then the Panthers have won consecutive home games, but they didn't look great against either Buffalo or Iowa while giving up 709 yards combinded. Pittsburgh's best player on offense is Sophomore RB LeSean McCoy. He has 242 yards and five touchdowns on the ground with another 102 yards receiving. Panthers QB Bill Stull has only one touchdown pass on the season to go with three interceptions. This will be Pittsburgh's Big East opener as well as their first road game of the young season. In 2007, the Panthers finished with only one win away from home.
Syracuse opened the season with three consecutive losses, and they weren't able to stay close in any of them. Last week they notched their first win against Northeastern. The Orange keep pace with other teams on offense with three strong running backs. Senior Curtis Brinkley leads the team with 358 yards and three touchdowns on the ground. Quarterback Cameron Dantley has been been solid behind center, throwing for five touchdowns against two picks. Syracuse's weakness is its defense, which has allowed a total of 148 points in four contests.
Neither team has looked very good so far this season, and Pittsburgh may be the better team. The Panthers are giving up more than two touchdowns on the road, and they are receiving 68% of the public's bets. The line has moved from Pitt -16.5 to -15.5, and that indicates some Smart Money behind Syracuse. Sure enough, there was a Smart Money play triggered by Cris, which has a positive record on NCAA Football Smart Money plays. We'll follow the Sharps and take the Orange with the points.
Syracuse +15.5
North Carolina vs Miami (FL) (9/27 12P)
Last week North Carolina looked poised to take a huge step towards importance in the ACC before a heartbreaking home loss to Virginia Tech. The Tar Heels had a two-touchdown lead late in the third quarter before giving up 17 unanswered points to the Hokies. Carolina lost starting QB T.J. Yates to a broken ankle during last week's loss. Backup Mike Paulus struggled against the Hokies, but he did come out of high school as a highly-regarded prospect. The Tar Heels boast one of the best receiving corps in the NCAA, including do-it-all receiver/return specialist Brandon Tate. So far in 2008 Tate has 297 receiving yards, 359 return yards, and 141 rushing yards. North Carolina's defense has forced eight turnovers through three games.
Miami came off an embarrassing late collapse two weeks ago against Florida with a huge win 41-23 win over Texas A&M. They were led by RB Graig Cooper, who finished the day with 128 yards on 16 carries, including two TDs. Freshman QB Robert Marve looked more comfortable in his second start, completing 16 of 22 pass for 212 yards with a pair of touchdowns. The Hurricanes defense did allow 362 yards to the Aggies, but they forced a pair of turnovers including a fumble returned for a score.
The media sees Miami as a team back on the rise in the ACC, much like they were saying about UNC before last week. The teams come in with very similar numbers through three games. Each sits at 2-1 and has scored 96 points, while North Carolina has allowed 59 points to Miami's 56. The Tar Heels surprised the Canes last season in a 33-27 win in Chapel Hill, and Butch Davis knows how to win in Miami. The line at Pinnacle opened at Miami -7 before climbing to -8, but has since dropped back to Miami -7.5 even though the Canes are receiving two-thirds of public bets. This movement has triggered multiple Smart Money plays on North Carolina, and we're going to buy low on Carolina and sell high on Miami.
North Carolina +8 (Sports Interaction)
Alabama vs Georgia (9/27 7:45PM)
Alabama has steadily climbed into the top 10 after its impressive opening win against Clemson. The Crimson Tide won its previous two games over Western Kentucky and Arkansas in routs. Alabama has put up 144 points while allowing only 37 to open the season 4-0. The Tide has three running backs averaging more than 6 yards per carry, led by Glen Coffee, who has 404 yards on 47 carries (8.6 ypc). Senior QB John Parker Wilson has performed well, and freshman WR Julio Jones has showed he can contribute immediately. Alabama's defense has forced 8 turnovers, with 4 coming in last week's blowout win over Arkansas.
Georgia came is as the pre-season No. 1 team, but have fallen behind USC and Oklahoma in the standings. Other than a close road win over South Carolina, the Dawgs have shown they can absolutely dominate. They traveled to a rowdy Sun Devil Stadium last weekend, and easily handled Arizona State in a 27-10 win. Junior QB Matthew Stafford has looked great while compiling a 152.64 rating, and Heismen candidate Knowshon Moreno already has 9 rushing TDs while averaging 6.6 yards per carry. Freshman WR A.J. Green had a breakout performance against ASU with 8 catches for 159 yards and a TD. The Georgia defense hasn't forced many turnovers on the season, but they do keep opponents from putting up lots of points, allowing only 55 so far.
This should be a great game as both teams are strong on both sides of the ball. Alabama will be looking to prove it belongs this high in the standings, and it will be a tough test between the hedges. The public is taking the Tide and the points in this top-10 battle at a 65% rate, and the line has moved from an opening at Pinnacle of Georgia -7.5 to -6.5. The movement has triggered Steam Moves on Georgia from multiple books with positive results. We like going against the public and Georgia giving up less than a TD on their home turf. Go Dawgs! .
Georgia -6.5
So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NCAA Football Week 4.
Games to Watch (6-3)
Syracuse +15.5
North Carolina +8 (Sports Interaction)
Georgia -6.5
It should be another exciting week for NCAA Football. Keep Sports Marketplace Games to Watch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. Also check out our new feature Campus Reports for NCAA Football information you won't find anywhere else. We’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!
Mike Norris at Sports Insights
SportsInsights
Sports Marketwatch - College Football Edition
NCAA Football Week 5
9/26/2008
by Mike Norris at Sports Insights
SportsInsights
Welcome to the inaugural edition of the NCAA Football Marketwatch. The team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NCAA Football point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketplace!
Every week we speak directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Let's take a look at what’s in store for this week in College Football.
Sports Marketplace – NCAA Week 5
Recapping Week 4
This is our first year providing the NCAA Football Marketwatch, and we are following an undesirable downward trend. After a hot start to the season, last week's 0-3 record dropped us to an even 6-6 for 2008. Tennessee looked like they never stood a chance against Florida, and Mississippi couldn't hang with Vanderbilt in the second half. Auburn was looking good against LSU, but faltered down the stretch and lost by five. We're hoping for a reversal of trends this week, after all the season is a roller coaster of ups and downs.
If you enjoy the insights this column provides, please be sure to visit SportsInsights.com and sign up for a Free 7-Day membership. We are the leader in sports betting information and statistics.
Overall = 6-6 = 50.0%
NCAA WEEK 5
For the second consecutive week the top match up takes place in an SEC battle between top-10 teams, as Alabama travels to play Georgia between the hedges. Both teams have a plethora of playmakers on offense and know how to stop their opponents on defense. Two other top-25 match ups take place this weekend. The first sees No. 2 Oklahoma host No.24 Texas Christian. The second features two teams hoping to win the Big Ten with No.12 Penn State hosting No. 22 Illinois.
Warning to all new readers of the NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch column: in order to follow our selections, you’ll need ice running through your veins. Be prepared to take up meditation or acupuncture to calm the nerves. The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too go to be true, there is a reason. The underlining theme every week is line value. You’ll consistently need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.
We're expecting heavy action on two of the top-25 match ups, with the TCU-Oklahoma point spread possibly scaring some bettors. Other games that should draw lots of action include Wisconsin at Michigan, Maryland at Clemson, and North Carolina at Miami (FL). Visit SportsInsights.com to view wagering statistics on NCAA games from multiple online sportsbooks. Here is a trio of line value games we are keying on.
NCAA Sports MarketWatch Week 5 – Games to Watch
Pittsburgh vs Syracuse (9/27 12P)
Pittsburgh opened the season as a top-25 team before a very disappointing home loss at the hands of Bowling Green. Since then the Panthers have won consecutive home games, but they didn't look great against either Buffalo or Iowa while giving up 709 yards combinded. Pittsburgh's best player on offense is Sophomore RB LeSean McCoy. He has 242 yards and five touchdowns on the ground with another 102 yards receiving. Panthers QB Bill Stull has only one touchdown pass on the season to go with three interceptions. This will be Pittsburgh's Big East opener as well as their first road game of the young season. In 2007, the Panthers finished with only one win away from home.
Syracuse opened the season with three consecutive losses, and they weren't able to stay close in any of them. Last week they notched their first win against Northeastern. The Orange keep pace with other teams on offense with three strong running backs. Senior Curtis Brinkley leads the team with 358 yards and three touchdowns on the ground. Quarterback Cameron Dantley has been been solid behind center, throwing for five touchdowns against two picks. Syracuse's weakness is its defense, which has allowed a total of 148 points in four contests.
Neither team has looked very good so far this season, and Pittsburgh may be the better team. The Panthers are giving up more than two touchdowns on the road, and they are receiving 68% of the public's bets. The line has moved from Pitt -16.5 to -15.5, and that indicates some Smart Money behind Syracuse. Sure enough, there was a Smart Money play triggered by Cris, which has a positive record on NCAA Football Smart Money plays. We'll follow the Sharps and take the Orange with the points.
Syracuse +15.5
North Carolina vs Miami (FL) (9/27 12P)
Last week North Carolina looked poised to take a huge step towards importance in the ACC before a heartbreaking home loss to Virginia Tech. The Tar Heels had a two-touchdown lead late in the third quarter before giving up 17 unanswered points to the Hokies. Carolina lost starting QB T.J. Yates to a broken ankle during last week's loss. Backup Mike Paulus struggled against the Hokies, but he did come out of high school as a highly-regarded prospect. The Tar Heels boast one of the best receiving corps in the NCAA, including do-it-all receiver/return specialist Brandon Tate. So far in 2008 Tate has 297 receiving yards, 359 return yards, and 141 rushing yards. North Carolina's defense has forced eight turnovers through three games.
Miami came off an embarrassing late collapse two weeks ago against Florida with a huge win 41-23 win over Texas A&M. They were led by RB Graig Cooper, who finished the day with 128 yards on 16 carries, including two TDs. Freshman QB Robert Marve looked more comfortable in his second start, completing 16 of 22 pass for 212 yards with a pair of touchdowns. The Hurricanes defense did allow 362 yards to the Aggies, but they forced a pair of turnovers including a fumble returned for a score.
The media sees Miami as a team back on the rise in the ACC, much like they were saying about UNC before last week. The teams come in with very similar numbers through three games. Each sits at 2-1 and has scored 96 points, while North Carolina has allowed 59 points to Miami's 56. The Tar Heels surprised the Canes last season in a 33-27 win in Chapel Hill, and Butch Davis knows how to win in Miami. The line at Pinnacle opened at Miami -7 before climbing to -8, but has since dropped back to Miami -7.5 even though the Canes are receiving two-thirds of public bets. This movement has triggered multiple Smart Money plays on North Carolina, and we're going to buy low on Carolina and sell high on Miami.
North Carolina +8 (Sports Interaction)
Alabama vs Georgia (9/27 7:45PM)
Alabama has steadily climbed into the top 10 after its impressive opening win against Clemson. The Crimson Tide won its previous two games over Western Kentucky and Arkansas in routs. Alabama has put up 144 points while allowing only 37 to open the season 4-0. The Tide has three running backs averaging more than 6 yards per carry, led by Glen Coffee, who has 404 yards on 47 carries (8.6 ypc). Senior QB John Parker Wilson has performed well, and freshman WR Julio Jones has showed he can contribute immediately. Alabama's defense has forced 8 turnovers, with 4 coming in last week's blowout win over Arkansas.
Georgia came is as the pre-season No. 1 team, but have fallen behind USC and Oklahoma in the standings. Other than a close road win over South Carolina, the Dawgs have shown they can absolutely dominate. They traveled to a rowdy Sun Devil Stadium last weekend, and easily handled Arizona State in a 27-10 win. Junior QB Matthew Stafford has looked great while compiling a 152.64 rating, and Heismen candidate Knowshon Moreno already has 9 rushing TDs while averaging 6.6 yards per carry. Freshman WR A.J. Green had a breakout performance against ASU with 8 catches for 159 yards and a TD. The Georgia defense hasn't forced many turnovers on the season, but they do keep opponents from putting up lots of points, allowing only 55 so far.
This should be a great game as both teams are strong on both sides of the ball. Alabama will be looking to prove it belongs this high in the standings, and it will be a tough test between the hedges. The public is taking the Tide and the points in this top-10 battle at a 65% rate, and the line has moved from an opening at Pinnacle of Georgia -7.5 to -6.5. The movement has triggered Steam Moves on Georgia from multiple books with positive results. We like going against the public and Georgia giving up less than a TD on their home turf. Go Dawgs! .
Georgia -6.5
So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NCAA Football Week 4.
Games to Watch (6-3)
Syracuse +15.5
North Carolina +8 (Sports Interaction)
Georgia -6.5
It should be another exciting week for NCAA Football. Keep Sports Marketplace Games to Watch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. Also check out our new feature Campus Reports for NCAA Football information you won't find anywhere else. We’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!
Mike Norris at Sports Insights
SportsInsights
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Ny Reb
NY REB
CFB YTD: 25-18 (+66*)
10* plays: 10-2
10* Ole Miss +24
I got this game Sunday night but had no intention of posting it this early until I saw that the line is going down. Now what do you think of this line going down, does that make sense to you? Florida just beat Tennessee by 24 in Knoxville, so why shouldn't they beat Ole Miss by 48 in Gainesville?
Because Florida beat Tennessee by 24 in Knoxville and Ole Miss lost at home to Vanderbilt.
Ironically, perhaps, both those events gives us great value in this spot, plus a fat cat Florida team fresh from the kill now facing a team they feel extremely unthreatened by and clearly superior to. Look for the Gators to be a bit flat and for the Rebels to be focused and fired up. This Florida team is one of the very best teams in college football, yet Ole Miss is not as far away as even their own fans believe, and will give the Gators all they can handle.
I know this play looks irrational to some. That is another reason I love it so much.
I also know I have used Ole Miss as a 10* play every week so far, and so far we are 2-1. I told you at the beginning that the Rebels will be point-spread-darlings this year, and look for that to continue Saturday against Florida.
Gimme all those points.
NY REB
CFB YTD: 25-18 (+66*)
10* plays: 10-2
10* Ole Miss +24
I got this game Sunday night but had no intention of posting it this early until I saw that the line is going down. Now what do you think of this line going down, does that make sense to you? Florida just beat Tennessee by 24 in Knoxville, so why shouldn't they beat Ole Miss by 48 in Gainesville?
Because Florida beat Tennessee by 24 in Knoxville and Ole Miss lost at home to Vanderbilt.
Ironically, perhaps, both those events gives us great value in this spot, plus a fat cat Florida team fresh from the kill now facing a team they feel extremely unthreatened by and clearly superior to. Look for the Gators to be a bit flat and for the Rebels to be focused and fired up. This Florida team is one of the very best teams in college football, yet Ole Miss is not as far away as even their own fans believe, and will give the Gators all they can handle.
I know this play looks irrational to some. That is another reason I love it so much.
I also know I have used Ole Miss as a 10* play every week so far, and so far we are 2-1. I told you at the beginning that the Rebels will be point-spread-darlings this year, and look for that to continue Saturday against Florida.
Gimme all those points.
Guaranteed Pick: Marc Lawrence
Marc Lawrence 63-0 ATS No.1 CFB Games Of The Week: Check this out - all THREE of Marc's No.1 College Football Favorite, Underdog and Revenge Game of the Week winners are supported with amazing winning angles inside the games that together are an incredible 63-0! Get them all right now and enjoy the weekend with Marc - you'll be glad you did!
Game: Tennessee Volunteers at Auburn Sep 27 2008 3:30PM
Prediction: Tennessee Volunteers
Reason: Play On: Tennessee Note: Tennessee, our No. 1 College Football Underdog Game of the Week, is 16-2 SU and 14-4 ATS in games off a loss of more than 7 points under Phil Fulmer, including 9-0 ATS as a dog or favorite of less than 6 points. On the flip side, Auburn head coach Tommy Tuberville is 1-13 ATS at home against an opponent off a loss of 17 or more points, including 0-11 if the foe owns a win percentage of .250 or more. Grab the points with the Vols in this upset maker.
Game: Wisconsin at Michigan Sep 27 2008 3:30PM
Prediction: Michigan
Reason: Play On: Michigan Note: Michigan, our No. 1 College Football Revenge Game of the Week, plays host to Wisconsin with revenge on their minds from a 16-point loss as 3-point road favorites last year. Aside from having NEVER been favored against the Wolverines in the 'Big House' in Ann Arbor, the Badgers are 1-16 SU on this field since 1965. To top it off, Michigan is 25-1 SU in its last 26 conference openers, with the one loss by 3 points - making them 26-0 to this number. Toss is Rich Rodriguez' 7-0 SU mark at home in games with rest and suddenly this game has all the making of a Live Home Dog win.
Game: Colorado St. at California Sep 27 2008 6:00PM
Prediction: California
Reason: Play On: California Note: California, our No. 1 College Football Favorite Game of the Week, returns home their stunning loss at Maryland two weeks ago as 14-point favorites to host Colorado State who enters off a SU home underdog win last week. With that we note that home teams in Game Four playing with a week of rest against a non-conference opponent off a win are 19-2 ATS, including 17-0 ATS if the host is off a win or loss of less than 20 and the visitor did not toss a shutout in its win. Lay the lumber with the Bears in this blowout.
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Marc Lawrence 63-0 ATS No.1 CFB Games Of The Week: Check this out - all THREE of Marc's No.1 College Football Favorite, Underdog and Revenge Game of the Week winners are supported with amazing winning angles inside the games that together are an incredible 63-0! Get them all right now and enjoy the weekend with Marc - you'll be glad you did!
Game: Tennessee Volunteers at Auburn Sep 27 2008 3:30PM
Prediction: Tennessee Volunteers
Reason: Play On: Tennessee Note: Tennessee, our No. 1 College Football Underdog Game of the Week, is 16-2 SU and 14-4 ATS in games off a loss of more than 7 points under Phil Fulmer, including 9-0 ATS as a dog or favorite of less than 6 points. On the flip side, Auburn head coach Tommy Tuberville is 1-13 ATS at home against an opponent off a loss of 17 or more points, including 0-11 if the foe owns a win percentage of .250 or more. Grab the points with the Vols in this upset maker.
Game: Wisconsin at Michigan Sep 27 2008 3:30PM
Prediction: Michigan
Reason: Play On: Michigan Note: Michigan, our No. 1 College Football Revenge Game of the Week, plays host to Wisconsin with revenge on their minds from a 16-point loss as 3-point road favorites last year. Aside from having NEVER been favored against the Wolverines in the 'Big House' in Ann Arbor, the Badgers are 1-16 SU on this field since 1965. To top it off, Michigan is 25-1 SU in its last 26 conference openers, with the one loss by 3 points - making them 26-0 to this number. Toss is Rich Rodriguez' 7-0 SU mark at home in games with rest and suddenly this game has all the making of a Live Home Dog win.
Game: Colorado St. at California Sep 27 2008 6:00PM
Prediction: California
Reason: Play On: California Note: California, our No. 1 College Football Favorite Game of the Week, returns home their stunning loss at Maryland two weeks ago as 14-point favorites to host Colorado State who enters off a SU home underdog win last week. With that we note that home teams in Game Four playing with a week of rest against a non-conference opponent off a win are 19-2 ATS, including 17-0 ATS if the host is off a win or loss of less than 20 and the visitor did not toss a shutout in its win. Lay the lumber with the Bears in this blowout.
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