Diamond Trends - Saturday
By Vince Akins
SU TREND OF THE DAY:
The Rockies are 0-11 since May 26, 2014 as a dog after a loss in which they drew 1 or fewer walks and it is not the last game of a series for a net profit of $1100 when playing against.
PITCHER TREND OF THE DAY:
When Max Scherzer starts his teams are in his career as a favorite after winning as an away favorite in his last start where he threw 103-116 pitches for a net profit of $1070.
MLB BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:
The Cardinals are 17-1 since September 16, 2010 at home after a loss in which they had at least five more team-lefton- base than their opponent. 4-1 this season.
CHOICE TREND:
The Angels are 13-0 since May 20, 2014 at home with a total of at least seven vs a divisional foe that is behind them in the divisional standings for a net profit of $1310.
ACTIVE TRENDS:
When Chris Tillman starts the Orioles are 11-2 since June 04, 2013 after winning as a home favorite in his last start for a net profit of $1015.
By Vince Akins
SU TREND OF THE DAY:
The Rockies are 0-11 since May 26, 2014 as a dog after a loss in which they drew 1 or fewer walks and it is not the last game of a series for a net profit of $1100 when playing against.
PITCHER TREND OF THE DAY:
When Max Scherzer starts his teams are in his career as a favorite after winning as an away favorite in his last start where he threw 103-116 pitches for a net profit of $1070.
MLB BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:
The Cardinals are 17-1 since September 16, 2010 at home after a loss in which they had at least five more team-lefton- base than their opponent. 4-1 this season.
CHOICE TREND:
The Angels are 13-0 since May 20, 2014 at home with a total of at least seven vs a divisional foe that is behind them in the divisional standings for a net profit of $1310.
ACTIVE TRENDS:
When Chris Tillman starts the Orioles are 11-2 since June 04, 2013 after winning as a home favorite in his last start for a net profit of $1015.
NCAAF
Week 1
Saturday's action
Top 13 games
Central Florida (+4.5) won 34-31 at Penn State LY, running ball for 219 yards; total yardage was 507-455, but UCF has new QB, 3 new starters on OL. Lions have new HC in former Vandy mentor Franklin. Penn State lost 4 starters on OL; they're 2-4 in last six neutral field games; its soph QB had 12 starts LY. UCF covered four of last six on neutral field. This game is being played in Ireland, for some reason.
Ohio State lost senior QB Miller for season, a damaging blow; they beat Navy 31-27 (-22) in last meeting five years ago. Buckeyes are 5-8-1 vs spread in last 14 games as road favorite; they lost 4 starters on OL from LY. Middies have 15 starters back and junior QB with 21 starts- they're 20-9 as an underdog under coach Niumatololo. Buckeyes are in trouble at QB, experience-wise- they had 12 days to prep new QB to start.
UCLA has 17 starters back, a QB with 27 starts, an NFL HC and is 5-2 in last seven tries as road favorites; they covered seven of last eight out of conference games. Virginia is 4-8-1 in last 13 games as home dog; they have 3 starters back on OL, soph QB with 7 starts, are just 3-9-1 in last 13 non-ACC games. Long road trip for Bruins, who don't play Texas for two weeks, shouldn't be looking past Cavaliers.
Troy won four of last five games with UAB, with three of last four won by 3 or less points; Trojans are 2-3 in last five visits here, with underdog 3-2 vs spread in those games. Blazers have new coach, new QB, but also has 15 oiher starters back- they're 4-12 vs spread in last 16 games when favored. Troy has new QB, 6 starters back on both sides of ball- they are 5-2-1 in last 8 games as dogs. Average total last four series games, 61.8.
Northwestern (-5.5) won 44-30 at Berkeley in LY's opener, running ball for 209 yards. Wildcats were 5-0 as home favorites LY, after being 5-18 as HFs under Fitzgerald before that. NW has all five starters back on OL, but has senior QB with only 3 career starts. Cal has 4 starters back on OL; they're 2-7 in last nine games as road dogs. Bears have a soph QB with 12 starts- they had 460 passing yards in LY's game.
Notre Dame gets mobile QB Golson back after he was suspended LY; he led Irish to national title game in 2012. Irish have 3 starters back on OL, are 8-11-3 as home favorites under Kelly, 27-48 overall when favored in last decade. Rice covered six of last seven games as road underdog- they have 3 starters back on OL, junior QB is making only 2nd start. Notre Dame plays Michigan next week, figure to hold back a little here.
Alabama didn't name #1 QB this week; they've got three starters back on OL. Tide is 17-11 as road favorites under Saban, covering eight of last 10 on neutral fields, but are just 6-8 vs spread out of SEC last three seasons. West Virginia is 7-7 as underdogs under Holgorsen; they've got senior QB (9 starts) but only two starters back on OL. WVa is 8-16 vs spread in last 24 non-conference games.
Arkansas won four of last six games with Auburn; underdogs are 9-5 vs spread in last 14 series games, 5-2 in last seven here, with Hogs winning three of last four visits here. Marshalll will play but won't start at QB for Tigers after weed bust this spring. Auburn has 4 starters back on OL, is 22-12 vs spread in SEC last four years. Arkansas is 5-12 vs spread in last 17 games as underdog, 3-8 in last 11 games as a road dog.
Clemson (+2.5) beat Georgia 38-35 LY, first renewal since '03 of an old intense rivalry; Dawgs had 545-467 yardage edge LY, 222-197 running ball. Both sides have new QB; Georgia's QB is senior who made couple starts LY, including bowl loss to Nebraska. Dawgs are 5-8 as favorite at home since '12, 10-15 in non-league tilts since '09. Tigers are 6-3 as road underdogs under Swinney, 14-10 vs spread overall on foreign soil.
Kent State won four of last five games with Ohio U; underdogs covered three of last four. Bobcats lost last two visits here, both by an identical 28-6 score. Ohio is 1-6 as road underdogs since 2011; they've got a new QB but have 3 starters back on OL. Kent has 7 starters back on both sides of ball; they're 10-6 as home favorites since '09, 1-1 under Haynes, in his first year at Kent.
Purdue (-1.5) beat Western Michigan 37-32 in last meeting three years ago; Boilermakers have soph QB (7 starts), three new starters on OL, no senior starters on OL but are 5-4 in last nine tries as home favorite- they have 15 starters back overall. Western was 1-11 in Fleck's first year as HC; they're 8-6 as roads underdogs since '11. Broncos could go with a freshman QB, as new coaches usually prefer their own recruits.
Florida State returns Heisman winner Winston at QB, has four starters back on OL (5 senior starters) and has covered 12 of last 15 games on a neutral field. Seminoles are 13-11 vs spread away from home with Fisher as coach. Oklahoma State has junior QB (8 starts) but lost 3 starters on OL; they're 5-3 vs spread in last eight games as underdogs. OSU lost 7 starters on both sides of ball from last year.
LSU will use two QBs, but Jennings played in Outback Bowl win over Iowa LY; Tigers have 4 starters back on OL, are 7-6 in last 13 games as road favorites, 11-17 vs spread in last 28 non-SEC games. Wisconsin will use more mobile QB rather than experienced (19 starts) returning starter Stave. Badgers covered five of last seven games as underdogs, are 8-5-1 vs spread in last 14 games on neutral fields.
Notes on other Saturday games
-- Michigan is 11-7 as home favorites under Hoke, 6-3 in its last nine as a double digit favorite.
-- NC State is 11-4 as home favorites since 2010, but 5-9 in last 14 non-league games.
-- Florida Atlantic fired Bo Pelini’s brother as HC LY. You think Nebraska will run it up, if they can.
-- Boston College is 5-11 in last 16 non-league games, 3-13 as road favorite since 2006.
-- Marshall is 1-8-1 in its last ten games as a road favorite.
-- Louisiana Tech covered only four of last 18 games. Oklahoma covered nine of last 12 out of conference.
-- Florida is just 3-8 as a home favorite the last two seasons.
-- USC is 10-6 in last 16 games as a home favorite; they beat Fresno State 45-20 in Las Vegas Bowl last December.
-- Southern Miss is 6-18 vs spread since Fedora bolted for Chapel Hill; they’re 3-10 in last 13 tries as a road dog.
-- North Texas covered 11 of last 14 games; this is their Super Bowl, playing the Longhorns. First game at Texas for Charlie Strong, who has tossed seven players already.
-- New Mexico covered four of last five games as a home favorite
Week 1
Saturday's action
Top 13 games
Central Florida (+4.5) won 34-31 at Penn State LY, running ball for 219 yards; total yardage was 507-455, but UCF has new QB, 3 new starters on OL. Lions have new HC in former Vandy mentor Franklin. Penn State lost 4 starters on OL; they're 2-4 in last six neutral field games; its soph QB had 12 starts LY. UCF covered four of last six on neutral field. This game is being played in Ireland, for some reason.
Ohio State lost senior QB Miller for season, a damaging blow; they beat Navy 31-27 (-22) in last meeting five years ago. Buckeyes are 5-8-1 vs spread in last 14 games as road favorite; they lost 4 starters on OL from LY. Middies have 15 starters back and junior QB with 21 starts- they're 20-9 as an underdog under coach Niumatololo. Buckeyes are in trouble at QB, experience-wise- they had 12 days to prep new QB to start.
UCLA has 17 starters back, a QB with 27 starts, an NFL HC and is 5-2 in last seven tries as road favorites; they covered seven of last eight out of conference games. Virginia is 4-8-1 in last 13 games as home dog; they have 3 starters back on OL, soph QB with 7 starts, are just 3-9-1 in last 13 non-ACC games. Long road trip for Bruins, who don't play Texas for two weeks, shouldn't be looking past Cavaliers.
Troy won four of last five games with UAB, with three of last four won by 3 or less points; Trojans are 2-3 in last five visits here, with underdog 3-2 vs spread in those games. Blazers have new coach, new QB, but also has 15 oiher starters back- they're 4-12 vs spread in last 16 games when favored. Troy has new QB, 6 starters back on both sides of ball- they are 5-2-1 in last 8 games as dogs. Average total last four series games, 61.8.
Northwestern (-5.5) won 44-30 at Berkeley in LY's opener, running ball for 209 yards. Wildcats were 5-0 as home favorites LY, after being 5-18 as HFs under Fitzgerald before that. NW has all five starters back on OL, but has senior QB with only 3 career starts. Cal has 4 starters back on OL; they're 2-7 in last nine games as road dogs. Bears have a soph QB with 12 starts- they had 460 passing yards in LY's game.
Notre Dame gets mobile QB Golson back after he was suspended LY; he led Irish to national title game in 2012. Irish have 3 starters back on OL, are 8-11-3 as home favorites under Kelly, 27-48 overall when favored in last decade. Rice covered six of last seven games as road underdog- they have 3 starters back on OL, junior QB is making only 2nd start. Notre Dame plays Michigan next week, figure to hold back a little here.
Alabama didn't name #1 QB this week; they've got three starters back on OL. Tide is 17-11 as road favorites under Saban, covering eight of last 10 on neutral fields, but are just 6-8 vs spread out of SEC last three seasons. West Virginia is 7-7 as underdogs under Holgorsen; they've got senior QB (9 starts) but only two starters back on OL. WVa is 8-16 vs spread in last 24 non-conference games.
Arkansas won four of last six games with Auburn; underdogs are 9-5 vs spread in last 14 series games, 5-2 in last seven here, with Hogs winning three of last four visits here. Marshalll will play but won't start at QB for Tigers after weed bust this spring. Auburn has 4 starters back on OL, is 22-12 vs spread in SEC last four years. Arkansas is 5-12 vs spread in last 17 games as underdog, 3-8 in last 11 games as a road dog.
Clemson (+2.5) beat Georgia 38-35 LY, first renewal since '03 of an old intense rivalry; Dawgs had 545-467 yardage edge LY, 222-197 running ball. Both sides have new QB; Georgia's QB is senior who made couple starts LY, including bowl loss to Nebraska. Dawgs are 5-8 as favorite at home since '12, 10-15 in non-league tilts since '09. Tigers are 6-3 as road underdogs under Swinney, 14-10 vs spread overall on foreign soil.
Kent State won four of last five games with Ohio U; underdogs covered three of last four. Bobcats lost last two visits here, both by an identical 28-6 score. Ohio is 1-6 as road underdogs since 2011; they've got a new QB but have 3 starters back on OL. Kent has 7 starters back on both sides of ball; they're 10-6 as home favorites since '09, 1-1 under Haynes, in his first year at Kent.
Purdue (-1.5) beat Western Michigan 37-32 in last meeting three years ago; Boilermakers have soph QB (7 starts), three new starters on OL, no senior starters on OL but are 5-4 in last nine tries as home favorite- they have 15 starters back overall. Western was 1-11 in Fleck's first year as HC; they're 8-6 as roads underdogs since '11. Broncos could go with a freshman QB, as new coaches usually prefer their own recruits.
Florida State returns Heisman winner Winston at QB, has four starters back on OL (5 senior starters) and has covered 12 of last 15 games on a neutral field. Seminoles are 13-11 vs spread away from home with Fisher as coach. Oklahoma State has junior QB (8 starts) but lost 3 starters on OL; they're 5-3 vs spread in last eight games as underdogs. OSU lost 7 starters on both sides of ball from last year.
LSU will use two QBs, but Jennings played in Outback Bowl win over Iowa LY; Tigers have 4 starters back on OL, are 7-6 in last 13 games as road favorites, 11-17 vs spread in last 28 non-SEC games. Wisconsin will use more mobile QB rather than experienced (19 starts) returning starter Stave. Badgers covered five of last seven games as underdogs, are 8-5-1 vs spread in last 14 games on neutral fields.
Notes on other Saturday games
-- Michigan is 11-7 as home favorites under Hoke, 6-3 in its last nine as a double digit favorite.
-- NC State is 11-4 as home favorites since 2010, but 5-9 in last 14 non-league games.
-- Florida Atlantic fired Bo Pelini’s brother as HC LY. You think Nebraska will run it up, if they can.
-- Boston College is 5-11 in last 16 non-league games, 3-13 as road favorite since 2006.
-- Marshall is 1-8-1 in its last ten games as a road favorite.
-- Louisiana Tech covered only four of last 18 games. Oklahoma covered nine of last 12 out of conference.
-- Florida is just 3-8 as a home favorite the last two seasons.
-- USC is 10-6 in last 16 games as a home favorite; they beat Fresno State 45-20 in Las Vegas Bowl last December.
-- Southern Miss is 6-18 vs spread since Fedora bolted for Chapel Hill; they’re 3-10 in last 13 tries as a road dog.
-- North Texas covered 11 of last 14 games; this is their Super Bowl, playing the Longhorns. First game at Texas for Charlie Strong, who has tossed seven players already.
-- New Mexico covered four of last five games as a home favorite
Prediction Machine Sides
Thu. Aug. 28th ATS
Rot Pick Opp Line Pick%
139 MISS BOISE -10 59
141 TEMPLE @ VANDY 14 58.6
137 TULANE @ TULSA 6.5 56.6
Fri Aug. 29th ATS
Rot Pick Opp Line Pick%
150 COLO (Lock of the Week) COLOST -2.5 61.7
148 @ WESTKY BGSU 7.5 56.9
Sat Aug. 30th ATS
Rot3 Pick Opp Line Pick%
197 FLAST OKST -17.5 61.5
156 UCF PSU -1.5 59.2
163 TROY @ UAB 2.5 58.6
169 FLAATL @ NEB 23 58.1
204 WISC LSU 5 58.1 166 @ NW CAL -10.5 57.6
195 WASH @ HAWAII -17 57.2
161 APP @ MICH 34.5 56.7
181 CLEM @ UGA 7.5 56.3
189 IDAHO @ FLA 36.5 56
179 ARK @ AUBURN 21 55.9
158 @ NAVY OHIOST 14 55.4
Thu. Aug. 28th ATS
Rot Pick Opp Line Pick%
139 MISS BOISE -10 59
141 TEMPLE @ VANDY 14 58.6
137 TULANE @ TULSA 6.5 56.6
Fri Aug. 29th ATS
Rot Pick Opp Line Pick%
150 COLO (Lock of the Week) COLOST -2.5 61.7
148 @ WESTKY BGSU 7.5 56.9
Sat Aug. 30th ATS
Rot3 Pick Opp Line Pick%
197 FLAST OKST -17.5 61.5
156 UCF PSU -1.5 59.2
163 TROY @ UAB 2.5 58.6
169 FLAATL @ NEB 23 58.1
204 WISC LSU 5 58.1 166 @ NW CAL -10.5 57.6
195 WASH @ HAWAII -17 57.2
161 APP @ MICH 34.5 56.7
181 CLEM @ UGA 7.5 56.3
189 IDAHO @ FLA 36.5 56
179 ARK @ AUBURN 21 55.9
158 @ NAVY OHIOST 14 55.4
Cajun Sports Wire 4.5*
GAME: Florida State Seminoles vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys 8:00PM EST
ANALYSIS: 4.5* Florida State -19
The Seminoles begin their defense of the National Title they won last season in dramatic fashion coming back against the Auburn Tigers in the Championship Game to grab the last BCS trophy. This game takes place in the Dallas Cowboys Stadium in Arlington Texas with kickoff set for 8:00PM Eastern Time Saturday night. The current title holder has posted a record of 15-0 straight up and 9-4 against the number in their season opener winning by an average of thirty-one points. FSU returns thirteen starters with the lone question mark seeming to be at running back where they still rank in the top fifteen in the country at that position. Needless to say the Noles are one of the nationae s most talented teams even with their losses from a season ago. The Cowboys return just eight starters from last season including the loss of every single All-Conference player on their roster. OSU won ten games last season but came apart at the end losing their bowl appearance to end the season. The Cowboys had a monstrous win over Baylor but lost two times as double-digit chalk and then proceeded to drop their Cotton Bowl appearance against the Missouri Tigers losing 41 to 31. The Noles went 11-2-1 ats last season which included a mark of 10-2-1 ats when installed as double-digit chalk. The Seminoles are a perfect 5-0 ats away before back-to-back home affairs. The TPR Index projects a point advantage of 25.8 points. The Math Model projects a point differential of 7.63 points against a current line range of -19 to -21.5. The Matrix has the Seminoles with a 72.09 percent against the spread advantage in the current line range of -19 to -21.5. With solid support across the board we will lay the chalk here as the Noles begin the defense of their title in Dallas on Saturday night. Lay the points
PROJECTED FORECAST: 4.5* Florida State 46 Oklahoma State 21
GAME: Florida State Seminoles vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys 8:00PM EST
ANALYSIS: 4.5* Florida State -19
The Seminoles begin their defense of the National Title they won last season in dramatic fashion coming back against the Auburn Tigers in the Championship Game to grab the last BCS trophy. This game takes place in the Dallas Cowboys Stadium in Arlington Texas with kickoff set for 8:00PM Eastern Time Saturday night. The current title holder has posted a record of 15-0 straight up and 9-4 against the number in their season opener winning by an average of thirty-one points. FSU returns thirteen starters with the lone question mark seeming to be at running back where they still rank in the top fifteen in the country at that position. Needless to say the Noles are one of the nationae s most talented teams even with their losses from a season ago. The Cowboys return just eight starters from last season including the loss of every single All-Conference player on their roster. OSU won ten games last season but came apart at the end losing their bowl appearance to end the season. The Cowboys had a monstrous win over Baylor but lost two times as double-digit chalk and then proceeded to drop their Cotton Bowl appearance against the Missouri Tigers losing 41 to 31. The Noles went 11-2-1 ats last season which included a mark of 10-2-1 ats when installed as double-digit chalk. The Seminoles are a perfect 5-0 ats away before back-to-back home affairs. The TPR Index projects a point advantage of 25.8 points. The Math Model projects a point differential of 7.63 points against a current line range of -19 to -21.5. The Matrix has the Seminoles with a 72.09 percent against the spread advantage in the current line range of -19 to -21.5. With solid support across the board we will lay the chalk here as the Noles begin the defense of their title in Dallas on Saturday night. Lay the points
PROJECTED FORECAST: 4.5* Florida State 46 Oklahoma State 21
