VegasButcher
Houston Astros -124
Fading an inconsistent Rangers team after a win is never a bad idea, but today we also have some strong factors on our side. Rob Ross was called up to start today’s game after a late scratch to Mikolas, who I dealing with a shoulder fatigue. Ross is a lefty and Astros rank 3rd offensively against left-handers. To make matters even more favorable for Houston, Ross is a type of a pitcher that doesn’t have an effective off-speed pitch. In his MLB career, he’s thrown his fastball almost 80% of the time (79% to be exact). If you are a stud pitcher with a deadly ‘fastball’, you can get away with it. But Ross is not it. His fastball averages 90.4 MPH this year, a drop of over 2 MPH since last season. It was an effective pitch last year but with the drop in velocity, it’s been way below average this year. Astros rank 8th overall against the pitch this year to make matters worse for him. Oh, and it gets even better for this matchup. Ross wasn’t expected to be called up, so he pitched 2.1 innings (42 pitches) of relief in a minor-league game on Thursday, or 2 days ago. Hard to expect him to be very sharp tonight. As for Feldman, he’s made 6 quality-starts out of his last 7 appearances, while pitching against tough opponents TOR, OAK (twice), and NYY who are hitting the ball much better lately. He’ll get to face a Rangers lineup tonight that can’t hit right-handed pitching at all. Texas is 18-34 (-13.9 U) after a win and 34-57 (-23.8) against right-handed pitching. Last night they blew up for 13 runs on 16 hits, but that was against a lefty in Oberholtzer. Tonight is Houston’s turn to score some runs off a lefty.
Milwaukee Brewers -107
I guess I’ll stay on the “gravy train” which is Fiers right now. I’ve talked about him in detail when I backed him in his last start, and he didn’t disappoint, holding a tough PIT lineup to 2 hits in 7 innings with a 7K to 1 BB. Now he’s making his first career appearance against the Giants and I expect similar results. Fiers’ strongest pitch this season has been his ‘cutter’, which has been absolutely devastating to hitters and makes his fastball look faster than it really is. Well, the worst offensive lineup against the ‘cutter’ in the league are the Giants, and it’s not even close. Guess who the best offensive lineup against the ‘cutter’ is? Yup, the Brewers. And of course Peavy’s best pitches this year have been his ‘cutter’ and his ‘curveball’, which the Brewers rank 2nd against actually. Milwaukee has seen Peavy twice this year and in 11.2 innings against them they’ve had 15 hits, 1 HR, and 5 BB’s (with only 7 K). I know Peavy has pitched better lately, but look who he’s faced: CHW (#18 against the cutter), CHC (#13), and COL (#11, though that’s a season long ranking as the Rockies have been bad offensively in the 2nd half). His combined ERA was 1.7 in these 3 starts. Prior to that he faced LAD (15th against the cutter but one of the best hitting teams against the curveball, Peavy’s 2nd best pitch this year), NYM (5th against the cutter), and MIL (#1). His ERA against those 3 teams was 4.8. Milwaukee got spanked yesterday but they should have a great shot at winning today’s contest. Brewers are 37-30 (+11.9U) on the road and 6-1 (5.3U) after allowing 10+ runs in a prior game. This is a good road-team and tends to bounce back after thrashings this season. Giants are only 36-33 (-5.9U) at home and have been winning most of their games recently against below average teams. Against teams with a winning-record they’re 6-17 (26%) in the last 23 games. Hopefully it’s 6-18 after tonight.
Houston Astros -124
Fading an inconsistent Rangers team after a win is never a bad idea, but today we also have some strong factors on our side. Rob Ross was called up to start today’s game after a late scratch to Mikolas, who I dealing with a shoulder fatigue. Ross is a lefty and Astros rank 3rd offensively against left-handers. To make matters even more favorable for Houston, Ross is a type of a pitcher that doesn’t have an effective off-speed pitch. In his MLB career, he’s thrown his fastball almost 80% of the time (79% to be exact). If you are a stud pitcher with a deadly ‘fastball’, you can get away with it. But Ross is not it. His fastball averages 90.4 MPH this year, a drop of over 2 MPH since last season. It was an effective pitch last year but with the drop in velocity, it’s been way below average this year. Astros rank 8th overall against the pitch this year to make matters worse for him. Oh, and it gets even better for this matchup. Ross wasn’t expected to be called up, so he pitched 2.1 innings (42 pitches) of relief in a minor-league game on Thursday, or 2 days ago. Hard to expect him to be very sharp tonight. As for Feldman, he’s made 6 quality-starts out of his last 7 appearances, while pitching against tough opponents TOR, OAK (twice), and NYY who are hitting the ball much better lately. He’ll get to face a Rangers lineup tonight that can’t hit right-handed pitching at all. Texas is 18-34 (-13.9 U) after a win and 34-57 (-23.8) against right-handed pitching. Last night they blew up for 13 runs on 16 hits, but that was against a lefty in Oberholtzer. Tonight is Houston’s turn to score some runs off a lefty.
Milwaukee Brewers -107
I guess I’ll stay on the “gravy train” which is Fiers right now. I’ve talked about him in detail when I backed him in his last start, and he didn’t disappoint, holding a tough PIT lineup to 2 hits in 7 innings with a 7K to 1 BB. Now he’s making his first career appearance against the Giants and I expect similar results. Fiers’ strongest pitch this season has been his ‘cutter’, which has been absolutely devastating to hitters and makes his fastball look faster than it really is. Well, the worst offensive lineup against the ‘cutter’ in the league are the Giants, and it’s not even close. Guess who the best offensive lineup against the ‘cutter’ is? Yup, the Brewers. And of course Peavy’s best pitches this year have been his ‘cutter’ and his ‘curveball’, which the Brewers rank 2nd against actually. Milwaukee has seen Peavy twice this year and in 11.2 innings against them they’ve had 15 hits, 1 HR, and 5 BB’s (with only 7 K). I know Peavy has pitched better lately, but look who he’s faced: CHW (#18 against the cutter), CHC (#13), and COL (#11, though that’s a season long ranking as the Rockies have been bad offensively in the 2nd half). His combined ERA was 1.7 in these 3 starts. Prior to that he faced LAD (15th against the cutter but one of the best hitting teams against the curveball, Peavy’s 2nd best pitch this year), NYM (5th against the cutter), and MIL (#1). His ERA against those 3 teams was 4.8. Milwaukee got spanked yesterday but they should have a great shot at winning today’s contest. Brewers are 37-30 (+11.9U) on the road and 6-1 (5.3U) after allowing 10+ runs in a prior game. This is a good road-team and tends to bounce back after thrashings this season. Giants are only 36-33 (-5.9U) at home and have been winning most of their games recently against below average teams. Against teams with a winning-record they’re 6-17 (26%) in the last 23 games. Hopefully it’s 6-18 after tonight.
All the #ANIMALS combined :
3.30pm (178) West Virginia +26
3.30pm (174) Miami Ohio +14 1st Half
3.30pm (174) Marshall/Miami Ohio over 62
3.30pm (165) California +10.5
4pm (179) Arkansas +4.5 1[SUP]st[/SUP] Q
4pm (906) Pirates -140
5.30pm (181) Clemson over 54
5.30pm (182) Georgia -8
6pm (184) OHIO/Kent State UNDER 49.5
7.30pm (192) USC -18
8pm (200) Texas -26
8pm (199) North Texas +14 1H
9pm (915) Brewers -104
9pm (8212) Robredo -115
9pm (932) Seattle +1.5 RL
10.30pm (195) Washington -17
3.30pm (178) West Virginia +26
3.30pm (174) Miami Ohio +14 1st Half
3.30pm (174) Marshall/Miami Ohio over 62
3.30pm (165) California +10.5
4pm (179) Arkansas +4.5 1[SUP]st[/SUP] Q
4pm (906) Pirates -140
5.30pm (181) Clemson over 54
5.30pm (182) Georgia -8
6pm (184) OHIO/Kent State UNDER 49.5
7.30pm (192) USC -18
8pm (200) Texas -26
8pm (199) North Texas +14 1H
9pm (915) Brewers -104
9pm (8212) Robredo -115
9pm (932) Seattle +1.5 RL
10.30pm (195) Washington -17
HARRY BONDI
College Football Free Pick
CALIFORNIA (+11) over Northwestern
3:30 p.m. ET
Sonny Dykes’ first season as head coach at Cal last year was a disaster as the team went 1-11. The Bears had a tough time transitioning into new systems on both sides of the ball and were devastated by injuries, but are improved at nearly every position this year, and return sophomore QB Jared Goff, who set the school record for passing yards as a true freshman.
Last year in the opener for both teams, Northwestern prevailed 44-30 as a six-point road favorite, but that was misleading as it was a tie game at the start of the fourth quarter and Cal had more first downs and more total yardage. It’s been a rocky preseason for the Wildcats, who finished last year losing seven of its final eight games. Top pass-catcher Christian Jones and defensive tackle Sean McEvilly suffered season-ending injuries, and star running back Venric Mark decided to transfer to be closer to his family.
Northwestern is also just 3-10 ATS in its last 13 tries as a double-digit chalk, so let’s grab those points with the much-improved Bears.
College Football Free Pick
CALIFORNIA (+11) over Northwestern
3:30 p.m. ET
Sonny Dykes’ first season as head coach at Cal last year was a disaster as the team went 1-11. The Bears had a tough time transitioning into new systems on both sides of the ball and were devastated by injuries, but are improved at nearly every position this year, and return sophomore QB Jared Goff, who set the school record for passing yards as a true freshman.
Last year in the opener for both teams, Northwestern prevailed 44-30 as a six-point road favorite, but that was misleading as it was a tie game at the start of the fourth quarter and Cal had more first downs and more total yardage. It’s been a rocky preseason for the Wildcats, who finished last year losing seven of its final eight games. Top pass-catcher Christian Jones and defensive tackle Sean McEvilly suffered season-ending injuries, and star running back Venric Mark decided to transfer to be closer to his family.
Northwestern is also just 3-10 ATS in its last 13 tries as a double-digit chalk, so let’s grab those points with the much-improved Bears.
