Sportswagers
Miami @ COLORADO
Miami -103 over COLORADO
The Marlins have won four of five and spanked the Rockies last night, 13-5 in the opener. Miami has also scored 31 times in the past four games, they’re just four games out in the Wildcard race and they’ll take that momentum into this one against Jordan Lyles. Lyles has put up some decent numbers but he rarely lasts more than 5 innings and he certainly lacks plus offerings. Over his last four starts, Lyles posted a 5.21 ERA while allowing at least one jack in every game. Jordan Lyles is an average pitcher throwing for a depleted team.
Tom Koehler is a pitcher we like. His numbers are average (3.82 ERA – 1.26 WHIP) but he’s been getting progressively better almost every month since he’s been in the bigs. Koehler’s fastball velocity has increased every month this season. In his last outing, he struck out seven batters in six frames. He has a BAA of just .239 this season but an unlucky 70% strand rate has hurt his bottom line. Over his past 11 starts, Koehler has been taken yard just three times. Koehler’s strikeout rate, control and groundball percentage are all trending the right way. The Marlins have won four of Koehler’s last six starts, they’re swinging some hot bats and they’re a cheap price to extend that run here.
Our Pick
Miami -103 (Risking 2.06 units - To Win: 2.00)
Chicago @ N.Y. YANKEEES
Chicago +197 over N.Y. YANKEEES
1:05 PM EST. Rounding out the back-end of Chicago’s rotation is 29-year-old Scott Carroll, who has pitched nearly 100 innings for the South Side so far. With a decent body of work to review, are there any sneaky skills worth speculating on here? Carroll needs pinpoint control to offset his pitiful strikeout rate but he's below-average at locating his pitches. He's managed to scrape by, in large part by inducing a high number of groundballs, but his low K rate makes him more susceptible to luck-factors, and he's been hurt by a low strand percentage. With a 31%/23% dominant start/disaster start split, every Carroll outing is sure to be a roller-coaster. That said, the Yankees cannot be in this price range. They can make average pitchers look great and bad ones look good. Carroll’s 55% groundball rate really sticks out and could be a factor. To be fair, Carroll has been a bit sharper lately, producing a few gems over the past month and a half. The possibility of Carroll getting whacked is always present when he starts but there is too much value here to pass up on. It’s also worth noting that the White Sox possess a dangerous offense, which adds to their appeal.
25 starts and 154 innings for 39-year old Hiroki Kuroda may be starting to take a toll. Throw in the 421 innings he’s thrown over the previous two seasons and you begin to get the picture of a pitcher that is running low on gas. Kuroda has surrendered three runs or more in four of his last five starts. In his last start he only struck out one batter in 6.2 innings. Over his last five starts, Kuroda has a 4.35 ERA, which is right in line with his 4.44 ERA over that same span. Perhaps it's too early to suggest a significant playing time adjustment, but Kuroda does appear to need a breather. Two starts ago start (August 10) he was pulled after 4.2 innings, four walks and 97 pitches for his second disaster start in his previous four starts. Indeed the Yanks may pull this one out but in no way do they deserve this billing, as they have proven over the past six weeks that they can lose at any time to any pitcher. Big overlay.
Our Pick
Chicago +197 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.94)
Houston @ CLEVELAND
Houston +137 over CLEVELAND
Collin McHugh has come out of nowhere to produce one of the most incredible rags to riches story in a long time. Formerly Colorado's waiver fodder and N.Y Mets farm-hand, Houston picked up McHugh -- owner of a career 8.94 ERA at the MLB level -- in December, and inserted him into the rotation in April following a Scott Feldman injury. So, color us surprised that he's pitched like an ace since then. In 114 innings, McHugh has a BB/K split of 39/124. In nine road starts, McHugh has allowed 42 hits in 54 innings for a BAA of .215. McHugh has been just as good against righties (.194 oppBA) as he has against lefties (.213 oppBA) and the scary part is that’s he’s getting better. Over his last five starts, McHugh has a 2.27 ERA (2.98 xERA), he’s struck out 31 batters and has walked just six in 32 frames. In his last start, McHugh’s groundball rate was 59%. McHugh is undoubtedly one of the most undervalued starters in the game. Furthermore, the Astros are playing great ball with 12 wins over their past 20 games and they’re currently 5-3 on this 10-game trip. This team is having fun and they’re dangerous.
Danny Salazar has blazing, malevolent stuff. He averages (that's averages) 96 mph on a fastball with sinister movement and he mixes in a nasty splitter. This dude can throw but we’re not so sure he can pitch. In 13 starts, he has just four of the pure quality variety. Salazar also pitches up in the zone so he’s prone to the long ball and has already been tagged for 10 jacks in 67 innings. Another problem is that he averages more pitches per AB than any pitcher in the game, meaning his pitch count is usually high and as a result, he rarely lasts deep into games. Salazar has lasted five innings or less in four of his past six starts and in eight of his 12 starts this season. That leaves the rest to the Indians bullpen. With an awful groundball/fly-ball split of 27%/50% and the inability to last deep into games, Salazar is too big risk at this price.
Our Pick
Houston +137 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.74)
MLB Historical - Total
Miami @ COLORADO
Miami -103 over COLORADO
The Marlins have won four of five and spanked the Rockies last night, 13-5 in the opener. Miami has also scored 31 times in the past four games, they’re just four games out in the Wildcard race and they’ll take that momentum into this one against Jordan Lyles. Lyles has put up some decent numbers but he rarely lasts more than 5 innings and he certainly lacks plus offerings. Over his last four starts, Lyles posted a 5.21 ERA while allowing at least one jack in every game. Jordan Lyles is an average pitcher throwing for a depleted team.
Tom Koehler is a pitcher we like. His numbers are average (3.82 ERA – 1.26 WHIP) but he’s been getting progressively better almost every month since he’s been in the bigs. Koehler’s fastball velocity has increased every month this season. In his last outing, he struck out seven batters in six frames. He has a BAA of just .239 this season but an unlucky 70% strand rate has hurt his bottom line. Over his past 11 starts, Koehler has been taken yard just three times. Koehler’s strikeout rate, control and groundball percentage are all trending the right way. The Marlins have won four of Koehler’s last six starts, they’re swinging some hot bats and they’re a cheap price to extend that run here.
Our Pick
Miami -103 (Risking 2.06 units - To Win: 2.00)
Chicago @ N.Y. YANKEEES
Chicago +197 over N.Y. YANKEEES
1:05 PM EST. Rounding out the back-end of Chicago’s rotation is 29-year-old Scott Carroll, who has pitched nearly 100 innings for the South Side so far. With a decent body of work to review, are there any sneaky skills worth speculating on here? Carroll needs pinpoint control to offset his pitiful strikeout rate but he's below-average at locating his pitches. He's managed to scrape by, in large part by inducing a high number of groundballs, but his low K rate makes him more susceptible to luck-factors, and he's been hurt by a low strand percentage. With a 31%/23% dominant start/disaster start split, every Carroll outing is sure to be a roller-coaster. That said, the Yankees cannot be in this price range. They can make average pitchers look great and bad ones look good. Carroll’s 55% groundball rate really sticks out and could be a factor. To be fair, Carroll has been a bit sharper lately, producing a few gems over the past month and a half. The possibility of Carroll getting whacked is always present when he starts but there is too much value here to pass up on. It’s also worth noting that the White Sox possess a dangerous offense, which adds to their appeal.
25 starts and 154 innings for 39-year old Hiroki Kuroda may be starting to take a toll. Throw in the 421 innings he’s thrown over the previous two seasons and you begin to get the picture of a pitcher that is running low on gas. Kuroda has surrendered three runs or more in four of his last five starts. In his last start he only struck out one batter in 6.2 innings. Over his last five starts, Kuroda has a 4.35 ERA, which is right in line with his 4.44 ERA over that same span. Perhaps it's too early to suggest a significant playing time adjustment, but Kuroda does appear to need a breather. Two starts ago start (August 10) he was pulled after 4.2 innings, four walks and 97 pitches for his second disaster start in his previous four starts. Indeed the Yanks may pull this one out but in no way do they deserve this billing, as they have proven over the past six weeks that they can lose at any time to any pitcher. Big overlay.
Our Pick
Chicago +197 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.94)
Houston @ CLEVELAND
Houston +137 over CLEVELAND
Collin McHugh has come out of nowhere to produce one of the most incredible rags to riches story in a long time. Formerly Colorado's waiver fodder and N.Y Mets farm-hand, Houston picked up McHugh -- owner of a career 8.94 ERA at the MLB level -- in December, and inserted him into the rotation in April following a Scott Feldman injury. So, color us surprised that he's pitched like an ace since then. In 114 innings, McHugh has a BB/K split of 39/124. In nine road starts, McHugh has allowed 42 hits in 54 innings for a BAA of .215. McHugh has been just as good against righties (.194 oppBA) as he has against lefties (.213 oppBA) and the scary part is that’s he’s getting better. Over his last five starts, McHugh has a 2.27 ERA (2.98 xERA), he’s struck out 31 batters and has walked just six in 32 frames. In his last start, McHugh’s groundball rate was 59%. McHugh is undoubtedly one of the most undervalued starters in the game. Furthermore, the Astros are playing great ball with 12 wins over their past 20 games and they’re currently 5-3 on this 10-game trip. This team is having fun and they’re dangerous.
Danny Salazar has blazing, malevolent stuff. He averages (that's averages) 96 mph on a fastball with sinister movement and he mixes in a nasty splitter. This dude can throw but we’re not so sure he can pitch. In 13 starts, he has just four of the pure quality variety. Salazar also pitches up in the zone so he’s prone to the long ball and has already been tagged for 10 jacks in 67 innings. Another problem is that he averages more pitches per AB than any pitcher in the game, meaning his pitch count is usually high and as a result, he rarely lasts deep into games. Salazar has lasted five innings or less in four of his past six starts and in eight of his 12 starts this season. That leaves the rest to the Indians bullpen. With an awful groundball/fly-ball split of 27%/50% and the inability to last deep into games, Salazar is too big risk at this price.
Our Pick
Houston +137 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.74)
MLB Historical - Total
| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | -4.00 |
| Last 30 Days | 40 | 35 | 0.00 | +27.29 |
| Season to Date | 180 | 197 | 0.00 | +22.12 |
R.A.S. (Right Angle Sports) is now an advertiser on the Rx.com so I will NOT be posting his plays
this year - even long after they are released. I will however be betting his releases and somehow
getting the lines that he recommends. Expensive service but, with all his followers, he does indeed
move the line.
this year - even long after they are released. I will however be betting his releases and somehow
getting the lines that he recommends. Expensive service but, with all his followers, he does indeed
move the line.
HARRY BONDI
NFL Preseason Free Pick
HOUSTON (+7) over Denver
9:00 p.m. ET
The Bronco’s have looked awesome in the preseason beating Seattle and crushing San Francisco last week 34-0. Peyton Manning has been outstanding completing 22 of 27 passes. But we are going to be contrarians here and back Houston because of Denver Head Coach John Fox’s week three history and a believe that Fox has already seen enough this preseason to show him that his squad is ready to repeat as AFC Champions. Fox is one of the few coaches that does not put a premium on week three of the preseason and his 0-3 ATS record as headman of the Bronco’s supports that premiss. We had Houston in it’s 32-7 shellacking of Atlanta last week and believe that Texans Head coach Bill O’Brien will play his starters three quarters and treat this as a regular season game, at least for three quarters, as he tries to put Houston’s horrific 2013 season in the rear view mirror.
NFL Preseason Free Pick
HOUSTON (+7) over Denver
9:00 p.m. ET
The Bronco’s have looked awesome in the preseason beating Seattle and crushing San Francisco last week 34-0. Peyton Manning has been outstanding completing 22 of 27 passes. But we are going to be contrarians here and back Houston because of Denver Head Coach John Fox’s week three history and a believe that Fox has already seen enough this preseason to show him that his squad is ready to repeat as AFC Champions. Fox is one of the few coaches that does not put a premium on week three of the preseason and his 0-3 ATS record as headman of the Bronco’s supports that premiss. We had Houston in it’s 32-7 shellacking of Atlanta last week and believe that Texans Head coach Bill O’Brien will play his starters three quarters and treat this as a regular season game, at least for three quarters, as he tries to put Houston’s horrific 2013 season in the rear view mirror.
WUNDERDOG SPORTS FREE PICK
MLB Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays
Time: Saturday 08/23 1:05 PM Eastern
Pick: Game Total UNDER 9 (-115)
There is no doubt that Tampa Bay has been a much better team since falling 18 games below .500 in June. The biggest impact has been the pitching as the Rays’ staff has allowed 3 runs or less in 26 of their last 33 games. They are continuing to post 0s on the scoreboard, as the staff has not allowed a run in 20 consecutive innings. Toronto has faint hopes of making a run at the second AL Wild Card spot, but the offense has put on the brakes over the last 18 games where the team has compiled a total of 56 runs at 3.1 per contest. The lack of hitting and the quality pitching has left Tampa Bay with an 18-7-2 mark to the UNDER in their last 27 games, and to a total of 7 to 8.5, they stand at 17-5-2 UNDER in their last 24. Buerhle is made for the weekend with none of his last 12 Saturday starts topping the total, and the Blue Jays are also 13-3-1 to the UNDER in his last 17 in game two of a series start, as he goes to school on the opposing team. Play the UNDER in this one.
MLB Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays
Time: Saturday 08/23 1:05 PM Eastern
Pick: Game Total UNDER 9 (-115)
There is no doubt that Tampa Bay has been a much better team since falling 18 games below .500 in June. The biggest impact has been the pitching as the Rays’ staff has allowed 3 runs or less in 26 of their last 33 games. They are continuing to post 0s on the scoreboard, as the staff has not allowed a run in 20 consecutive innings. Toronto has faint hopes of making a run at the second AL Wild Card spot, but the offense has put on the brakes over the last 18 games where the team has compiled a total of 56 runs at 3.1 per contest. The lack of hitting and the quality pitching has left Tampa Bay with an 18-7-2 mark to the UNDER in their last 27 games, and to a total of 7 to 8.5, they stand at 17-5-2 UNDER in their last 24. Buerhle is made for the weekend with none of his last 12 Saturday starts topping the total, and the Blue Jays are also 13-3-1 to the UNDER in his last 17 in game two of a series start, as he goes to school on the opposing team. Play the UNDER in this one.
BONES BEST BET
BRAVES ML -128 *4* BEST BET
The Reds are ice cold, while the Braves are on fire with wins in 8 of 10. Leake has been struggling of late with a 1.42 WHIP and a 5.21 ERA.
RAYS ML -102 *2*
Hellickson has been lights out with a 0.69 ERA on the road this season – while the Jays have gone sour including once unbeatable Mark Buehrle.
RAYS @ BLUE JAYS UNDER 8.5 -105 *3*
Coming off a complete destruction by the Rays last night 8-0, the Jays need to right the ship today if they want any chance at a post season birth. The bats just don’t seem to be there right now for them, as they are averaging just over 3 runs per game in their last 10 games. Today they face a much improved Jamie Hellickson, who enters this contest with a WHIP of 1.17 and ERA of 2.56, after managing just 2 hits yesterday it might be another long day. On the hill for the Jays is Mark Buehrle who may not need the bats to provide much support given his 2-0 record against the Rays this season spanning three starts with an ERA of 2.21 over 20.1 innings of work. We look for a low scoring affair here today.
TIGERS @ TWINS – OVER 9 -110 *2*
Both Farmer and Pino have been BAD this season – Farmer in his one start was roughed up hard and Pino has been struggling all season. The Tigers and Twins are both seeing 11+ runs over their past 5 games and saw a 26 spot yesterday.
DIAMONDBACKS -101 *3*
The Dbacks have won 7 of their last 10 meetings with the Padres. And the Padres are 25-41 on the road. No way should the Padres be favoured on the road. Cashner also struggles on the road. He has a 1.42 road WHIP this year. Nuno has yet to win while pitching for the Dbacks but he has pitched well. He has a 3.72 ERA and 1.11 WHIP since joining the team. Nuno gets his first win as a D-back today.
BRAVES ML -128 *4* BEST BET
The Reds are ice cold, while the Braves are on fire with wins in 8 of 10. Leake has been struggling of late with a 1.42 WHIP and a 5.21 ERA.
RAYS ML -102 *2*
Hellickson has been lights out with a 0.69 ERA on the road this season – while the Jays have gone sour including once unbeatable Mark Buehrle.
RAYS @ BLUE JAYS UNDER 8.5 -105 *3*
Coming off a complete destruction by the Rays last night 8-0, the Jays need to right the ship today if they want any chance at a post season birth. The bats just don’t seem to be there right now for them, as they are averaging just over 3 runs per game in their last 10 games. Today they face a much improved Jamie Hellickson, who enters this contest with a WHIP of 1.17 and ERA of 2.56, after managing just 2 hits yesterday it might be another long day. On the hill for the Jays is Mark Buehrle who may not need the bats to provide much support given his 2-0 record against the Rays this season spanning three starts with an ERA of 2.21 over 20.1 innings of work. We look for a low scoring affair here today.
TIGERS @ TWINS – OVER 9 -110 *2*
Both Farmer and Pino have been BAD this season – Farmer in his one start was roughed up hard and Pino has been struggling all season. The Tigers and Twins are both seeing 11+ runs over their past 5 games and saw a 26 spot yesterday.
DIAMONDBACKS -101 *3*
The Dbacks have won 7 of their last 10 meetings with the Padres. And the Padres are 25-41 on the road. No way should the Padres be favoured on the road. Cashner also struggles on the road. He has a 1.42 road WHIP this year. Nuno has yet to win while pitching for the Dbacks but he has pitched well. He has a 3.72 ERA and 1.11 WHIP since joining the team. Nuno gets his first win as a D-back today.
