Sportswagers MLB
Today's Free Picks for Aug 17, 2013
St. Louis @ CHICAGO
CHICAGO +116 over St. Louis
Joe Kelley has started just seven games for the Cardinals after spending most of the season in the bullpen. As a starter last year and went 5-7 with a 3.53 ERA in 107 IP. "Pedestrian" is the best way to describe these skills. His lack of disaster starts looks encouraging but there is a big difference between disaster avoidance and dominance. Regardless, he doesn't know how to miss bats, and that severely limits his upside. In four starts over the past month covering just 23 innings, Kelly has walked 11 batters and struck out 11. Kelly has a troubling 1.39 WHIP this season and an even more troubling 5.06 xERA. He’s survived so far because of a lucky 88% strand rate but that luck is sure to run out. Additionally, the Cardinals are beating up on everyone like they were earlier in the season. St. Louis has lost 15 of its past 22 games including the opener here yesterday by a score of 7-0.
We absolutely get the superior pitcher here in Travis Wood. Wood is coming off a four-hit, eight inning gem in Cincinnati and at home he’s posted a 3.08 ERA in 14 games started. Wood has allowed just 118 hits in 153 innings for a BAA of just .213. His strikeout rate is trending the right way and so his groundball rate. At one time in his minor league career, he won the ERA title with a 1.21 ERA and he did it by mastering a nasty cutter that he’s relying on at this level too. Wood will face a Cardinals team that is struggling right now that has won only 12 of 31 games against southpaws. Wood is an under the radar, outstanding southpaw.
Our Pick
CHICAGO +116 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.32)
N.Y. Mets @ SAN DIEGO
N.Y. Mets +111 over SAN DIEGO
The best pitch in baseball is still and will always be strike one. Edinson Volquez has an 0-1 count less than any pitcher in baseball. His talent has never been in question but he simply can’t and never has been able to throw strikes consistently and it gets worse as the season progresses. Over his past 27 innings, Volquez has walked 14 and struck out 17. At Petco Park this season he’s 3-7 with a 5.27 ERA. He comes into this start with an ugly 1.62 WHIP, meaning that there has been an average of 2 runners on base every inning he’s pitched this year. Volquez is about the riskiest pitcher in the majors when spotting a tag and you can triple that in the month of August. Over the past four seasons including this year, Voquez has an August ERA of 7.25 over 14 starts and a BAA of .316. San Diego has lost three in a row and eight of its past 10 and Volquez is not the guy to get them right-sided.
Not too many pitchers have been able to contain the Dodgers over the past two months but Jenrry Menjia did just that when he held them to two earned runs in six full innings. Since joining the rotation in late July, Menjia has been nothing short of brilliant. He’s made just four starts but has a 58% groundball rate and a strikeout/BB split of 22/3. Mejia is a former top prospect that had his career derailed by injuries. Fully healthy now with plenty of gas in his tank, he’s showing us why he was so highly regarded in the minors. This dude can pitch and is perhaps the best buy-low target in the majors because not many have heard of him. Wrong side favored and the best value on today’s card.
Our Pick
N.Y. Mets +111 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.22)
N.Y. Yankees @ BOSTON
N.Y. Yankees +119 over BOSTON
Wow. The Yankees have gone berserk. New York is crushing the field in every offensive category over the past five games. During that span, the Yanks are hitting .386, they’ve gone deep eight times and have scored 41 runs with a SLG % of 562. This team is seeing beach balls right now and they figure to continue the onslaught against John Lackey. Lackey was dealing it earlier in the year with some of the best home stats in baseball (1.90 ERA and 1.04 WHIP at Fenway) up until late July but his numbers on the road were not close to that and he’s been scuffing lately no matter where he pitches. Remember, Lackey missed all of last year and was whacked in 2011 with a 6.41 ERA over 28 starts. He’s no youngster either and we’re seeing definite signs of erosion and fatigue. Lackey has been tagged for 42 hits over his past 32 frames. Even the Astros got to him two starts back. During that stretch, Lackey has a 1.47 WHIP, a 4.96 ERA and a HR/F rate of 14%. In other words, Lackey is not fooling anyone right now and facing the hottest hitting team in the majors is unlikely to change that.
There’s more good news with New York’s most reliable starter taking the hill. Hiroki Kuroda just keeps on winning games and dominating the opposition. Kuroda has an elite groundball rate of 61%. In 155 frames, he’s walked 29 batters for one of the lowest BB ratio in the majors. He’s constantly ahead of batters and he might also have the highest baseball IQ if any pitcher in the major leagues. Kuroda knows every hitters weakness. He pounds the ball down and in or down and away and he changes speeds like no other. He gets through innings quickly and efficiently and has posted a 0.50 WHIP over his past two starts and an overall WHIP of 1.04. Boston has lost three in a row and six of eight. They’ve scored three runs or less in three straight and they are the only team in the majors that were contained at the Rogers Center, where they scored eight runs in three games. Very hot versus very cold with the vastly superior pitcher going easily gets this call.
Our Pick
N.Y. Yankees +119 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.38)
Today's Free Picks for Aug 17, 2013
St. Louis @ CHICAGO
CHICAGO +116 over St. Louis
Joe Kelley has started just seven games for the Cardinals after spending most of the season in the bullpen. As a starter last year and went 5-7 with a 3.53 ERA in 107 IP. "Pedestrian" is the best way to describe these skills. His lack of disaster starts looks encouraging but there is a big difference between disaster avoidance and dominance. Regardless, he doesn't know how to miss bats, and that severely limits his upside. In four starts over the past month covering just 23 innings, Kelly has walked 11 batters and struck out 11. Kelly has a troubling 1.39 WHIP this season and an even more troubling 5.06 xERA. He’s survived so far because of a lucky 88% strand rate but that luck is sure to run out. Additionally, the Cardinals are beating up on everyone like they were earlier in the season. St. Louis has lost 15 of its past 22 games including the opener here yesterday by a score of 7-0.
We absolutely get the superior pitcher here in Travis Wood. Wood is coming off a four-hit, eight inning gem in Cincinnati and at home he’s posted a 3.08 ERA in 14 games started. Wood has allowed just 118 hits in 153 innings for a BAA of just .213. His strikeout rate is trending the right way and so his groundball rate. At one time in his minor league career, he won the ERA title with a 1.21 ERA and he did it by mastering a nasty cutter that he’s relying on at this level too. Wood will face a Cardinals team that is struggling right now that has won only 12 of 31 games against southpaws. Wood is an under the radar, outstanding southpaw.
Our Pick
CHICAGO +116 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.32)
N.Y. Mets @ SAN DIEGO
N.Y. Mets +111 over SAN DIEGO
The best pitch in baseball is still and will always be strike one. Edinson Volquez has an 0-1 count less than any pitcher in baseball. His talent has never been in question but he simply can’t and never has been able to throw strikes consistently and it gets worse as the season progresses. Over his past 27 innings, Volquez has walked 14 and struck out 17. At Petco Park this season he’s 3-7 with a 5.27 ERA. He comes into this start with an ugly 1.62 WHIP, meaning that there has been an average of 2 runners on base every inning he’s pitched this year. Volquez is about the riskiest pitcher in the majors when spotting a tag and you can triple that in the month of August. Over the past four seasons including this year, Voquez has an August ERA of 7.25 over 14 starts and a BAA of .316. San Diego has lost three in a row and eight of its past 10 and Volquez is not the guy to get them right-sided.
Not too many pitchers have been able to contain the Dodgers over the past two months but Jenrry Menjia did just that when he held them to two earned runs in six full innings. Since joining the rotation in late July, Menjia has been nothing short of brilliant. He’s made just four starts but has a 58% groundball rate and a strikeout/BB split of 22/3. Mejia is a former top prospect that had his career derailed by injuries. Fully healthy now with plenty of gas in his tank, he’s showing us why he was so highly regarded in the minors. This dude can pitch and is perhaps the best buy-low target in the majors because not many have heard of him. Wrong side favored and the best value on today’s card.
Our Pick
N.Y. Mets +111 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.22)
N.Y. Yankees @ BOSTON
N.Y. Yankees +119 over BOSTON
Wow. The Yankees have gone berserk. New York is crushing the field in every offensive category over the past five games. During that span, the Yanks are hitting .386, they’ve gone deep eight times and have scored 41 runs with a SLG % of 562. This team is seeing beach balls right now and they figure to continue the onslaught against John Lackey. Lackey was dealing it earlier in the year with some of the best home stats in baseball (1.90 ERA and 1.04 WHIP at Fenway) up until late July but his numbers on the road were not close to that and he’s been scuffing lately no matter where he pitches. Remember, Lackey missed all of last year and was whacked in 2011 with a 6.41 ERA over 28 starts. He’s no youngster either and we’re seeing definite signs of erosion and fatigue. Lackey has been tagged for 42 hits over his past 32 frames. Even the Astros got to him two starts back. During that stretch, Lackey has a 1.47 WHIP, a 4.96 ERA and a HR/F rate of 14%. In other words, Lackey is not fooling anyone right now and facing the hottest hitting team in the majors is unlikely to change that.
There’s more good news with New York’s most reliable starter taking the hill. Hiroki Kuroda just keeps on winning games and dominating the opposition. Kuroda has an elite groundball rate of 61%. In 155 frames, he’s walked 29 batters for one of the lowest BB ratio in the majors. He’s constantly ahead of batters and he might also have the highest baseball IQ if any pitcher in the major leagues. Kuroda knows every hitters weakness. He pounds the ball down and in or down and away and he changes speeds like no other. He gets through innings quickly and efficiently and has posted a 0.50 WHIP over his past two starts and an overall WHIP of 1.04. Boston has lost three in a row and six of eight. They’ve scored three runs or less in three straight and they are the only team in the majors that were contained at the Rogers Center, where they scored eight runs in three games. Very hot versus very cold with the vastly superior pitcher going easily gets this call.
Our Pick
N.Y. Yankees +119 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.38)
| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 2 | 2 | 0.00 | +0.64 |
| Last 30 Days | 46 | 33 | 0.00 | +46.93 |
| Season to Date | 184 | 180 | 0.00 | +78.05 |
Sportswagers CFL
Today's Free Picks for Aug 17, 2013
Montreal @ SASKATCHEWAN
SASKATCHEWAN -12 -110 over Montreal
The Montreal Alouettes have no life in them whatsoever. After making some changes prior to last week’s showdown with the Argonauts, the Als came out and got buried at home by an embarrassing 38-13. Once reliable and feared, age has caught up to Anthony Calvillo and like the team he plays for, he looks almost lost out there. The Als have serious injuries piling up all around them. Their defense is atrocious and they can no longer survive a shootout because their offense cannot keep pace. They Als have a daunting task here in facing the Riders on the road in perhaps the most difficult venue in the CFL for the opposition to win at.
It would be one thing if Saskatchewan went into Calgary last week and emerged victorious because that would have created a letdown situation here but that didn’t occur. Instead, the Riders fell behind early, they were completely dominated in the most hyped game of the CFL this year and they left Calgary with their tails between their legs. In other words, the Riders are in a foul mood after being embarrassed by the Stamps. Perhaps that’s a good thing because every CFL fan watched that game. It was to the CFL what New England/Indianapolis, in the days of Peyton Manning, was to the NFL and the Riders were humiliated. That loss has them undervalued here. This is still the best team in the CFL with the best offense, the best defense and the best special teams. Last week was a good lesson for these Riders to not get too high and that you have to pay a price every week. Expect the Riders to come out focused, intense and with a purpose. Unfortunately for Montreal, they couldn’t have picked a worse time to face the Riders in Saskatchewan.
Our Pick
SASKATCHEWAN -12 -110 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)
Calgary @ B.C. LIONS
B.C. LIONS -3 -108 over Calgary
This is another great showdown between two top-tier clubs. We just don’t like the spot for Calgary after that extremely emotional win last week over the then undefeated Riders. What follows a victory like that at home is usually a letdown on the road the following week. The Stamps were sky high for that showdown last week and they delivered the goods. All week since beating the powerful Riders, the media has been playing it up, saying that the Stamps are now the team to beat this year. The players eat that crap up in much the same way the Riders did before that humbling loss last week. This is a horrible situational spot for the Stamps and if they show up with the same emotion and focus as they did last week, good for them but it’s highly unlikely.
It has been difficult for us to get on board with the Lions because they have not looked sharp the entire season. Loaded with talent throughout their line-up both on offense and defense, one has to figure that at some point the Lions are going to explode. Could this be the week? The situation for B.C. to go off is a good one. They have had two weeks to prepare for this one and that’s huge considering the Stamps went all out last week. B.C. is capable of blowing out anyone but have not had that luxury yet. The Lions also remember the first week of the season in which they went into Calgary and had their defense carved up in a 44-32 loss. They’ve had this game circled on their calendar ever since. B.C. has not peaked yet but make no mistake, this host is as talented as any team in the league and Travis Lulay is right there among them. The Stampeders peaked last week and that game had to take something out of them. In a normal week with equal rest and equal situational spots, we’d be hesitant to lay the points but that’s not the case here. This one sets up as perhaps the best situational spot of the season so far and we’re on it because the B.C. Lions will be more prepared this week than they’ve been all year.
Our Pick
B.C. LIONS -3 -108 (Risking 2.16 units - To Win: 2.00)
Today's Free Picks for Aug 17, 2013
Montreal @ SASKATCHEWAN
SASKATCHEWAN -12 -110 over Montreal
The Montreal Alouettes have no life in them whatsoever. After making some changes prior to last week’s showdown with the Argonauts, the Als came out and got buried at home by an embarrassing 38-13. Once reliable and feared, age has caught up to Anthony Calvillo and like the team he plays for, he looks almost lost out there. The Als have serious injuries piling up all around them. Their defense is atrocious and they can no longer survive a shootout because their offense cannot keep pace. They Als have a daunting task here in facing the Riders on the road in perhaps the most difficult venue in the CFL for the opposition to win at.
It would be one thing if Saskatchewan went into Calgary last week and emerged victorious because that would have created a letdown situation here but that didn’t occur. Instead, the Riders fell behind early, they were completely dominated in the most hyped game of the CFL this year and they left Calgary with their tails between their legs. In other words, the Riders are in a foul mood after being embarrassed by the Stamps. Perhaps that’s a good thing because every CFL fan watched that game. It was to the CFL what New England/Indianapolis, in the days of Peyton Manning, was to the NFL and the Riders were humiliated. That loss has them undervalued here. This is still the best team in the CFL with the best offense, the best defense and the best special teams. Last week was a good lesson for these Riders to not get too high and that you have to pay a price every week. Expect the Riders to come out focused, intense and with a purpose. Unfortunately for Montreal, they couldn’t have picked a worse time to face the Riders in Saskatchewan.
Our Pick
SASKATCHEWAN -12 -110 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)
B.C. LIONS -3 -108 over Calgary
This is another great showdown between two top-tier clubs. We just don’t like the spot for Calgary after that extremely emotional win last week over the then undefeated Riders. What follows a victory like that at home is usually a letdown on the road the following week. The Stamps were sky high for that showdown last week and they delivered the goods. All week since beating the powerful Riders, the media has been playing it up, saying that the Stamps are now the team to beat this year. The players eat that crap up in much the same way the Riders did before that humbling loss last week. This is a horrible situational spot for the Stamps and if they show up with the same emotion and focus as they did last week, good for them but it’s highly unlikely.
It has been difficult for us to get on board with the Lions because they have not looked sharp the entire season. Loaded with talent throughout their line-up both on offense and defense, one has to figure that at some point the Lions are going to explode. Could this be the week? The situation for B.C. to go off is a good one. They have had two weeks to prepare for this one and that’s huge considering the Stamps went all out last week. B.C. is capable of blowing out anyone but have not had that luxury yet. The Lions also remember the first week of the season in which they went into Calgary and had their defense carved up in a 44-32 loss. They’ve had this game circled on their calendar ever since. B.C. has not peaked yet but make no mistake, this host is as talented as any team in the league and Travis Lulay is right there among them. The Stampeders peaked last week and that game had to take something out of them. In a normal week with equal rest and equal situational spots, we’d be hesitant to lay the points but that’s not the case here. This one sets up as perhaps the best situational spot of the season so far and we’re on it because the B.C. Lions will be more prepared this week than they’ve been all year.
Our Pick
B.C. LIONS -3 -108 (Risking 2.16 units - To Win: 2.00)
| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | -2.20 |
| Last 30 Days | 5 | 6 | 0.00 | -2.00 |
| Season to Date | 13 | 9 | 0.00 | +8.50 |
Sportswagers Boxing
Today's Free Picks for Aug 17, 2013
Kovalev vs. Cleverly
Sergey Kovalev by KO, TKO or DQ +138 over Nathan Cleverly
TIME AND LOCATION: 5:00 PM EST. Motorpoint Arena Cardiff, Wales, United Kingdom
This is a significant light heavyweight fight with Nathan Cleverly’s WBO strap on the line. The odds are about even money on this fight which shows many may not have a firm take on how this fight may play out. Cleverly is certainly not an easy opponent to fight. He’s tall and rangy with fast hands. He has a very high work rate and an excellent engine, he can box if he chooses to or force the fight with quick hands and great conditioning and no one has beaten him yet. Cleverly is talking about making this fight like the Calzaghe vs. Lacy fight where Calzaghe, as an underdog, out-boxed and undressed Lacy seemingly ruining him forever. Cleverly is right to want to box with Kovalev but he’s making a big mistake in equating Kovalev to Lacy. Kovalev has only fought eight rounds once and Cleverly is tremendously well conditioned so he’ll will want to survive early and hope to drown Kovalev late in the fight. It’s a reasonable plan and we really don’t know Kovalev’s conditioning in a war of attrition.
Sergey Kovalev is a straight out destroyer. He’s also tall, although he’s a bit shorter than Cleverly and perhaps not as wide in the shoulders, but he brings genuine mind numbing power into his fights. Everything can be improved as a fighter but real punchers are born that way. Kovalev is blessed with tremendous leverage on shots that seem to bother guys even if blocked on the gloves. Cleverly has enough diversity to beat a one dimensional fighter with power but Kovalev brings more than that. He has a straight, fast, long and hard jab that gets him into punching range. He doesn’t get off balance and has a way of touching opponents right from the opening bell. He was able to break down slick technician and former champ Gabriel Campillo in three rounds and has stopped 9 straight fighters
Cleverly will run into problems in this fight and here’s why: while Cleverly has speed and skills, he often fights with his opponents. It has worked out because he had the edge in speed and conditioning and wasn’t too worried about return fire. That’s a big problem here because Sergey Kovalev is a banger, he is a boxer too and sets things up by boxing smartly. Kovalev he has ability and speed in his own right to get there. Cleverly isn’t likely to walk a 12 round tightrope and steal a decision. It isn’t the way he fights and Kovalev will not allow that. Kovalev will look to walk down the moving Cleverly with patience but bad intentions. There will be times when the fighters are involved in heated exchanges and both will land but Cleverly isn’t a huge hitter while Kovalev throws bricks. At some point they will mix and Kovalev will hurt Cleverly and end maters soon thereafter. This fight is not going the distance if Kovalev wins and it’s for that reason we’ll play the him by KO, TKO or DQ.
Our Pick
Sergey Kovalev by KO, TKO or DQ +138 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.76)
Today's Free Picks for Aug 17, 2013
Sergey Kovalev by KO, TKO or DQ +138 over Nathan Cleverly
TIME AND LOCATION: 5:00 PM EST. Motorpoint Arena Cardiff, Wales, United Kingdom
This is a significant light heavyweight fight with Nathan Cleverly’s WBO strap on the line. The odds are about even money on this fight which shows many may not have a firm take on how this fight may play out. Cleverly is certainly not an easy opponent to fight. He’s tall and rangy with fast hands. He has a very high work rate and an excellent engine, he can box if he chooses to or force the fight with quick hands and great conditioning and no one has beaten him yet. Cleverly is talking about making this fight like the Calzaghe vs. Lacy fight where Calzaghe, as an underdog, out-boxed and undressed Lacy seemingly ruining him forever. Cleverly is right to want to box with Kovalev but he’s making a big mistake in equating Kovalev to Lacy. Kovalev has only fought eight rounds once and Cleverly is tremendously well conditioned so he’ll will want to survive early and hope to drown Kovalev late in the fight. It’s a reasonable plan and we really don’t know Kovalev’s conditioning in a war of attrition.
Sergey Kovalev is a straight out destroyer. He’s also tall, although he’s a bit shorter than Cleverly and perhaps not as wide in the shoulders, but he brings genuine mind numbing power into his fights. Everything can be improved as a fighter but real punchers are born that way. Kovalev is blessed with tremendous leverage on shots that seem to bother guys even if blocked on the gloves. Cleverly has enough diversity to beat a one dimensional fighter with power but Kovalev brings more than that. He has a straight, fast, long and hard jab that gets him into punching range. He doesn’t get off balance and has a way of touching opponents right from the opening bell. He was able to break down slick technician and former champ Gabriel Campillo in three rounds and has stopped 9 straight fighters
Cleverly will run into problems in this fight and here’s why: while Cleverly has speed and skills, he often fights with his opponents. It has worked out because he had the edge in speed and conditioning and wasn’t too worried about return fire. That’s a big problem here because Sergey Kovalev is a banger, he is a boxer too and sets things up by boxing smartly. Kovalev he has ability and speed in his own right to get there. Cleverly isn’t likely to walk a 12 round tightrope and steal a decision. It isn’t the way he fights and Kovalev will not allow that. Kovalev will look to walk down the moving Cleverly with patience but bad intentions. There will be times when the fighters are involved in heated exchanges and both will land but Cleverly isn’t a huge hitter while Kovalev throws bricks. At some point they will mix and Kovalev will hurt Cleverly and end maters soon thereafter. This fight is not going the distance if Kovalev wins and it’s for that reason we’ll play the him by KO, TKO or DQ.
Our Pick
Sergey Kovalev by KO, TKO or DQ +138 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.76)
| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | -2.00 |
| Last 30 Days | 1 | 3 | 0.00 | -1.50 |
| Season to Date | 9 | 20 | 0.00 | -13.10 |
