UFC Fight Night 26 betting: Browne can't stand with Overeem
By MMAODDSBREAKER
UFC Fight Night 26: Alistair Overeem (-220) vs. Travis Browne (+200)
Overeem (36-12, 1 NC) is the former Strikeforce heavyweight champion and was well on his way to fighting for the UFC belt until he ran into Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva at UFC 156 and was knocked out in embarrassing fashion. The 33 year old Overeem is a gifted muay Thai striker and he has good wrestling and submissions as well, but his chin is poor and his cardio is questionable as well. Plus he’s been linked to PEDs in the past. Against Browne, look for Overeem to show off his standup skill because, while Browne is a good striker in his own right, he doesn’t hold a candle to Reem on the feet.
Browne (14-1-1) is an up-and-coming heavyweight who has put together an impressive resume in his short time in the sport. The 31 year old Hawaiian is super athletic and his athleticism has transferred well into his MMA career as he’s been able to pull off moves that other men of his size can’t do, and training at Greg Jackson’s, expect him to display even more skills on Saturday. Against Reem, look for Browne to keep the fight standing and attack his opponent’s chin, but he better make sure he also watches his own in the process.
I believe Reem has more tools to win this fight and in a fight between two heavy-limbed strikers, I have to go with the fighter who has more paths to victory for my pick. I wouldn’t be surprised if this fight did hit the floor and Reem used his wrestling and submissions, but I think it’s more likely the fight stays standing and I think Reem is going to be the one who lands first.
UFC Fight Night 26: Chael Sonnen (-110) vs. Mauricio "Shogun" Rua (+100)
Sonnen (27-13-1) is coming off of two-straight losses, but keep in mind they came to Anderson Silva and Jon Jones in title fights, and those are two of the best fighters in the sport. Therefore, it’s hard to say that Sonnen is on a huge decline just because he’s lost two-straight fights by knockout, as you must keep the context in mind. The 36-year-old American is one of the best wrestlers in the sport as he uses takedowns to put his opponents on the mat and beat them up there. But keep in mind most of his success came at 185, and at 205 he’s undersized. Assuming Sonnen can get the takedowns, though, he does have a clear path to victory to win this fight. But if he can’t get the fight to the floor and has to stand and bang with Rua, he will be in danger.
Rua (21-7) is the former UFC light heavyweight champion and is generally regarded as one of the most devastating strikers in mixed martial arts history. The 31 year old Brazilian is a dynamic muay Thai striker with especially brilliant punches and kicks, and he has an iron chin and strong heart that allow him to absorb an incredible amount of damage and keep on ticking. Although Rua’s UFC career has been up and down, he is a guy who is always dangerous and he’s always a tough out for anyone at 205. But against Sonnen, Rua’s takedown defense is going to be put to the test and because it’s been poor in recent fights, he’s entering this fight as a slight dog despite his superior resume. However, Sonnen is a small 205er and might not have much success if Rua shows up to this fight healthy and in shape, something that is always a question with him. Assuming he does though, and if he can keep the fight standing, look for Rua to put on a show and display the newly-found boxing skills he’s picked up from working with Freddie Roach.
I do see Sonnen having initial success with the takedowns and likely winning the first few rounds, but eventually Rua is going to be able to stop them and once he’s able to start landing strikes on Sonnen, the favorite is going to be in trouble. Rua’s experience in long, drawn-out wars is going to play dividends here as he drags the fight into the deep waters, puts Sonnen under pressure late, and win the fight with a late-round TKO.
