SPORTS WAGERS ( RANDALL THE HANDLE )
Detroit +1.74 over BOSTON Pinnacle
It didn’t seem possible that the banged up Tigers could go into Boston yesterday and beat Jon Lester with Armando Galarraga going but they did and today they get a much more favorable matchup. Max Scherzer is developing into a true ace. This guy has wicked stuff and he just keeps getting better. He was sent down to the minors back in early May to work on his delivery and in his first start back he fanned a cool 14 and has barely slowed down since. In that no-hitter game against Matt Garza last week, Scherzer, too, had a no-no going into the sixth. In 32 July innings, Scherzer has allowed 20 hits for a BAA of .175 to go along with an ERA of 2.48. This guy can pitch, period. Daisuke Matsuzaka is coming off back-to-back strong games but they came in Seattle and Oakland. Fact is, Dice K is not to be trusted laying big juice. He’s a serious roll of the dice because he is capable of walking way too many people. Every time you think Dice has turned the corner he throws a complete disaster. We're three years into this experiment and his skills keep getting worse. Does this look like an ace to you? Big overlay. Play: Detroit +1.74 (Risking 2 units).
Florida +1.07 over SAN DIEGO Pinnacle
This one is all about wagering on Ricky Nolasco against Kevin Correia. Nolasco has been one of the best pitchers in the game in July and that is right in line with his incredibly terrific second half a year ago. Nolasco’s ERA in 2009 and the first half of 2010 weren’t great, but that was due to various factors and as a result we get an undervalued pitcher here. Fact is, he’s done much better in his five second-half starts. Combine that with impeccable control and it’s clear why his xERA is so low. In 33 July innings, Nolasco has fanned 40 batters while walking just eight. He has a .216 BAA over that span and current Padre hitters have had very little success against him. The Marlins are really playing good ball and took the opener last night in a matchup that was far less favorable than this one. Kevin Correia is usually good for giving up four or five a game. Pitching at least half his games at Petco, Correia has a BAA of .272 and an ERA of 4.52. Those are Great American Ballpark numbers and frankly, there’s nothing to like about Correia as a favorite over Nolasco. Play: Florida +1.07 (Risking 2 units).
HOUSTON –1½ +1.86 over Milwaukee Pinnacle
You could definitely lay the –1.11 and feel very confident but we’ll go for the gold and lay the runs. You see, everything about Wandy Rodriguez is screaming to “buy” now. He’s been trending in the right direction for weeks and has really hit his stride with five outstanding starts in his last six. Among those were a seven-inning, one-hit gem against the Reds, a six-inning, zero earned runs against San Fran and a seven-inning, seven-hit, one run gem against these same Brewers in Milwaukee. Now the scene switches to Houston, where Rodriguez has always been better. Furthermore, Milwaukee has lost 15 of Dave Bush’s last 22 starts and it’s also worth mentioning that Houston is on a three-game winning streak while the Crew have dropped three straight. Dave Bush is hit and miss. He will never dominate in the fashion that Rodriguez is capable of but will often keep his team in the game. However, that’s a roll of the dice every time and even in his win last week in against the Nats, he still gave up three jacks. It might appear that the Astros are cleaning house when in fact they’re not. This is a team with a lot of young talent, that can’t wait to get back to the park, as they’re all starting to thrive. Play: Houston –1½ +1.86 (Risking 2 units).
Pittsburgh +1.82 over ST. LOUIS Pinnacle
Jeff Suppan a –1.94 favorite is about as ridiculous as it gets. Here’s a guy that has nothing left. He’s batting practice out there. Over his last three starts covering 16 innings, Suppan has struck out two batters and they were both pitchers. In those 16 July innings, he’s also allowed four bombs, walked seven and allowed 22 hits. In 67 IP this season he’s allowed 99 hits for a BAA of .359 to go along with an alarming 1.88 WHIP. Jeff Suppan is the worst starter in the majors and now he’s a 2-1 favorite? Are you kidding? Also, Tony LaRussa is the most overrated manager in baseball history and it’s not close. He actually believes in his own screwed up brain that batting the pitcher eighth is working. It’s not only that though. He makes so many bad moves it’s incredible but they go virtually unnoticed by most because he’s been around so long and has had success. The only reason he’s had success is because he has surrounded himself with great assistants and bench coaches and they do everything form him but it’s perceived that LaRussa is doing it. Personally, I have no confidence when I wager on the Cards because LaRussa makes two stupid moves (or more) every game and costs his team more wins than any manager in the business. The Pirates do not have a strong starter on its whole staff so there is no point getting into Daniel McCutchen’s numbers. He could give up five or more without breaking a sweat. Thing is, McCutchen is not the one laying close to 2-1 and the Pirates are playing decent ball these days. They have a great chance to score a bunch and when a stiff like Suppan is favored by this much, the pooch is the play with no questions asked because Suppan’s chances of losing are far greater than his chances of winning. Play: Pittsburgh +1.84 (Risking 2 units).
Detroit +1.74 over BOSTON Pinnacle
It didn’t seem possible that the banged up Tigers could go into Boston yesterday and beat Jon Lester with Armando Galarraga going but they did and today they get a much more favorable matchup. Max Scherzer is developing into a true ace. This guy has wicked stuff and he just keeps getting better. He was sent down to the minors back in early May to work on his delivery and in his first start back he fanned a cool 14 and has barely slowed down since. In that no-hitter game against Matt Garza last week, Scherzer, too, had a no-no going into the sixth. In 32 July innings, Scherzer has allowed 20 hits for a BAA of .175 to go along with an ERA of 2.48. This guy can pitch, period. Daisuke Matsuzaka is coming off back-to-back strong games but they came in Seattle and Oakland. Fact is, Dice K is not to be trusted laying big juice. He’s a serious roll of the dice because he is capable of walking way too many people. Every time you think Dice has turned the corner he throws a complete disaster. We're three years into this experiment and his skills keep getting worse. Does this look like an ace to you? Big overlay. Play: Detroit +1.74 (Risking 2 units).
Florida +1.07 over SAN DIEGO Pinnacle
This one is all about wagering on Ricky Nolasco against Kevin Correia. Nolasco has been one of the best pitchers in the game in July and that is right in line with his incredibly terrific second half a year ago. Nolasco’s ERA in 2009 and the first half of 2010 weren’t great, but that was due to various factors and as a result we get an undervalued pitcher here. Fact is, he’s done much better in his five second-half starts. Combine that with impeccable control and it’s clear why his xERA is so low. In 33 July innings, Nolasco has fanned 40 batters while walking just eight. He has a .216 BAA over that span and current Padre hitters have had very little success against him. The Marlins are really playing good ball and took the opener last night in a matchup that was far less favorable than this one. Kevin Correia is usually good for giving up four or five a game. Pitching at least half his games at Petco, Correia has a BAA of .272 and an ERA of 4.52. Those are Great American Ballpark numbers and frankly, there’s nothing to like about Correia as a favorite over Nolasco. Play: Florida +1.07 (Risking 2 units).
HOUSTON –1½ +1.86 over Milwaukee Pinnacle
You could definitely lay the –1.11 and feel very confident but we’ll go for the gold and lay the runs. You see, everything about Wandy Rodriguez is screaming to “buy” now. He’s been trending in the right direction for weeks and has really hit his stride with five outstanding starts in his last six. Among those were a seven-inning, one-hit gem against the Reds, a six-inning, zero earned runs against San Fran and a seven-inning, seven-hit, one run gem against these same Brewers in Milwaukee. Now the scene switches to Houston, where Rodriguez has always been better. Furthermore, Milwaukee has lost 15 of Dave Bush’s last 22 starts and it’s also worth mentioning that Houston is on a three-game winning streak while the Crew have dropped three straight. Dave Bush is hit and miss. He will never dominate in the fashion that Rodriguez is capable of but will often keep his team in the game. However, that’s a roll of the dice every time and even in his win last week in against the Nats, he still gave up three jacks. It might appear that the Astros are cleaning house when in fact they’re not. This is a team with a lot of young talent, that can’t wait to get back to the park, as they’re all starting to thrive. Play: Houston –1½ +1.86 (Risking 2 units).
Pittsburgh +1.82 over ST. LOUIS Pinnacle
Jeff Suppan a –1.94 favorite is about as ridiculous as it gets. Here’s a guy that has nothing left. He’s batting practice out there. Over his last three starts covering 16 innings, Suppan has struck out two batters and they were both pitchers. In those 16 July innings, he’s also allowed four bombs, walked seven and allowed 22 hits. In 67 IP this season he’s allowed 99 hits for a BAA of .359 to go along with an alarming 1.88 WHIP. Jeff Suppan is the worst starter in the majors and now he’s a 2-1 favorite? Are you kidding? Also, Tony LaRussa is the most overrated manager in baseball history and it’s not close. He actually believes in his own screwed up brain that batting the pitcher eighth is working. It’s not only that though. He makes so many bad moves it’s incredible but they go virtually unnoticed by most because he’s been around so long and has had success. The only reason he’s had success is because he has surrounded himself with great assistants and bench coaches and they do everything form him but it’s perceived that LaRussa is doing it. Personally, I have no confidence when I wager on the Cards because LaRussa makes two stupid moves (or more) every game and costs his team more wins than any manager in the business. The Pirates do not have a strong starter on its whole staff so there is no point getting into Daniel McCutchen’s numbers. He could give up five or more without breaking a sweat. Thing is, McCutchen is not the one laying close to 2-1 and the Pirates are playing decent ball these days. They have a great chance to score a bunch and when a stiff like Suppan is favored by this much, the pooch is the play with no questions asked because Suppan’s chances of losing are far greater than his chances of winning. Play: Pittsburgh +1.84 (Risking 2 units).
