Safestwager
Saratoga Race Track Saturday, July 31st, 2010
Doubles, Pick 3's. Pick 4:
Race 8) 1/3/7 (Add #12, if he draws in)
Race 9) 1/3/4
Race 10) 2/5/9 (Add, #7, if a scratch)
Race 11) 2/7/9 (Add, #3, if a scratch)
****************
Race 8) 1 1/16 Miles (Inner Turf) Md Sp Wt.
#7 The Noz*
Looks like a good one in the making. He got caught off guard in
first lifetime race. He got away last, but still almost caught the leader.
The initial fractions were quick, so he'll be able to stay close early today.
The question will be stamina. Any improvement off of last green start
gets his picture taken today.
Safer Bet:
a) # 7 to Win, Place or Show
Exotics:
b) Trifecta Box: 1/3/5/7 (Use #12 if a scratch.)
Race 9) 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) Diana - G1
#3 Phola*
Connections always liked this one, but she took awhile to
fill out. In last, she was flying at end, after a poor start, and
ran out of track. She went her last quarter in 22 seconds flat.
That's what quarter horses do!
Anyway... although her last race was also a Grade 1, this field is tougher.
Her trainer, Pletcher, has given her adequate time between starts.
She could be very impressive today.
Safer Bet:
a) #3 to Win, Place or Show
Lots of Exotics:
b) Exacta: 3 with 1/4
c) Trifecta Box: 1/3/4
d) Trifecta: 3 with 1/4
e) Super: 1/3/4 with 1/3/4 with 1/3/4 with 2/5/6/7
f) Cheap Super: 3 with 1/4 with 1/4 with 2/5/6/7
Race 10) 1 1/8 Miles Jim Dandy G-2
#5 A Little Warm*
Top Jockey, J. Velazquez, had options, and made this his choice.
I would discount last win, which was against lesser in a 4 horse field.
But... in prior, you could see that this colt was capable of winning
a Grade 1 race. He set the pace, got challenged repeatedly, and
got nudged for win at the very end. He still beat eventual Belmont
winner Drosselmeyer. After that race connections gave him 3 months
off to recharge.
This will be his 2nd start back.
Could be scary if he actually improves from his last Beyer rating of 105.
Safer Bet:
a) #5 to Win, Place or Show
Exotics:
a) Exacta: 5 with 2/7/9
b) Trifecta Box: 2/5/7/9 (add #8, if a scratch)
c) Trifecta: 2/5 with 2/5 with 7/8/9
d) Super Box 2/5/7/9 (add #8, if a scratch)
e) Cheap Super: 2/5 with 2/5 wtih 7/8/9 with 7/8/9
Saratoga Race Track Saturday, July 31st, 2010
Doubles, Pick 3's. Pick 4:
Race 8) 1/3/7 (Add #12, if he draws in)
Race 9) 1/3/4
Race 10) 2/5/9 (Add, #7, if a scratch)
Race 11) 2/7/9 (Add, #3, if a scratch)
****************
Race 8) 1 1/16 Miles (Inner Turf) Md Sp Wt.
#7 The Noz*
Looks like a good one in the making. He got caught off guard in
first lifetime race. He got away last, but still almost caught the leader.
The initial fractions were quick, so he'll be able to stay close early today.
The question will be stamina. Any improvement off of last green start
gets his picture taken today.
Safer Bet:
a) # 7 to Win, Place or Show
Exotics:
b) Trifecta Box: 1/3/5/7 (Use #12 if a scratch.)
Race 9) 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) Diana - G1
#3 Phola*
Connections always liked this one, but she took awhile to
fill out. In last, she was flying at end, after a poor start, and
ran out of track. She went her last quarter in 22 seconds flat.
That's what quarter horses do!
Anyway... although her last race was also a Grade 1, this field is tougher.
Her trainer, Pletcher, has given her adequate time between starts.
She could be very impressive today.
Safer Bet:
a) #3 to Win, Place or Show
Lots of Exotics:
b) Exacta: 3 with 1/4
c) Trifecta Box: 1/3/4
d) Trifecta: 3 with 1/4
e) Super: 1/3/4 with 1/3/4 with 1/3/4 with 2/5/6/7
f) Cheap Super: 3 with 1/4 with 1/4 with 2/5/6/7
Race 10) 1 1/8 Miles Jim Dandy G-2
#5 A Little Warm*
Top Jockey, J. Velazquez, had options, and made this his choice.
I would discount last win, which was against lesser in a 4 horse field.
But... in prior, you could see that this colt was capable of winning
a Grade 1 race. He set the pace, got challenged repeatedly, and
got nudged for win at the very end. He still beat eventual Belmont
winner Drosselmeyer. After that race connections gave him 3 months
off to recharge.
This will be his 2nd start back.
Could be scary if he actually improves from his last Beyer rating of 105.
Safer Bet:
a) #5 to Win, Place or Show
Exotics:
a) Exacta: 5 with 2/7/9
b) Trifecta Box: 2/5/7/9 (add #8, if a scratch)
c) Trifecta: 2/5 with 2/5 with 7/8/9
d) Super Box 2/5/7/9 (add #8, if a scratch)
e) Cheap Super: 2/5 with 2/5 wtih 7/8/9 with 7/8/9
KEITH FREDRICK
Dodgers at Giants
Pick: Giants -110
Dodgers come in losers of three in a row while the Giants are 7-2 in their last nine games, but the real reason I am taking the Giants here is that Barry Zito deserved a lot better than he got in his last start, as he made just two mistakes the whole night, and it cost him three runs, and after that the usually reliable Giant bullpen could not hold down the fort enough for the offense to come all the way back. Things even out in a baseball season, and see Barry get the better end of things here tonite.
Dodgers at Giants
Pick: Giants -110
Dodgers come in losers of three in a row while the Giants are 7-2 in their last nine games, but the real reason I am taking the Giants here is that Barry Zito deserved a lot better than he got in his last start, as he made just two mistakes the whole night, and it cost him three runs, and after that the usually reliable Giant bullpen could not hold down the fort enough for the offense to come all the way back. Things even out in a baseball season, and see Barry get the better end of things here tonite.
David Malinsky
4* SAN FRANCISCO over L.A. DODGERS
The Giants are simply much better than the Dodgers right now, and while the sting of that major * shift from last night’s 9th inning Run Line reversal will linger for us for a while, we can at least recoup a major part of that in this setting, as one of the hottest teams in the Major Leagues (the San Francisco run is at 18-5) takes on a floundering side that has gone 5-10 since the All Star break, including 1-7 on the road, and only maintaining that weak pace because the pitching staff threw a shutout in four of the wins. One of those shutouts came from Chad Billingsley against these Giants, but instead of a repeat performance today we see a major turnaround.
Because of the suspension to Clayton Kershaw, Billingsley is going on three days rest for the first time in his career, and that issue is magnified in going from a night start on Tuesday to this afternoon affair, making his rest even shorter. A San Francisco offense that leads the N.L. in runs in July was productive on Friday, and gets the third look at Billingsley in less than five weeks, which means some good swings at an arsenal that will not be at 100 percent.
Meanwhile Barry Zito suffered the loss against Billingsley in Los Angeles last week, but performed well, holding the game at 1-0 into the 8th inning. Zito has come out with a sharp 2.08 in three starts since the All Star break, with his command showing in a sharp ratio of 17 K’s vs. only six W’s, and for the full season it has been a 6-2/2.65 from this mound. The Dodgers do not bring much right-handed punch to the park without Manny Ramirez, scoring just 12 runs in six games vs. left-handed starters since the All Star break, and the momentum for each of these teams continues in the same direction this afternoon.
4* SAN FRANCISCO over L.A. DODGERS
The Giants are simply much better than the Dodgers right now, and while the sting of that major * shift from last night’s 9th inning Run Line reversal will linger for us for a while, we can at least recoup a major part of that in this setting, as one of the hottest teams in the Major Leagues (the San Francisco run is at 18-5) takes on a floundering side that has gone 5-10 since the All Star break, including 1-7 on the road, and only maintaining that weak pace because the pitching staff threw a shutout in four of the wins. One of those shutouts came from Chad Billingsley against these Giants, but instead of a repeat performance today we see a major turnaround.
Because of the suspension to Clayton Kershaw, Billingsley is going on three days rest for the first time in his career, and that issue is magnified in going from a night start on Tuesday to this afternoon affair, making his rest even shorter. A San Francisco offense that leads the N.L. in runs in July was productive on Friday, and gets the third look at Billingsley in less than five weeks, which means some good swings at an arsenal that will not be at 100 percent.
Meanwhile Barry Zito suffered the loss against Billingsley in Los Angeles last week, but performed well, holding the game at 1-0 into the 8th inning. Zito has come out with a sharp 2.08 in three starts since the All Star break, with his command showing in a sharp ratio of 17 K’s vs. only six W’s, and for the full season it has been a 6-2/2.65 from this mound. The Dodgers do not bring much right-handed punch to the park without Manny Ramirez, scoring just 12 runs in six games vs. left-handed starters since the All Star break, and the momentum for each of these teams continues in the same direction this afternoon.
