- MARCO'S 5% GAME OF THE MONTH
Game: (927) Boston Red Sox at (928) Los Angeles Angels
Date/Time: Jul 30 2016 9:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Boston Red Sox -128
View Analysis
PLAY: (927) BOSTON -128 (William Hill)
RATING: 5%
I was waiting for this match up as I wanted to back Drew Pomeranz when he got away from the pressure of pitching in Fenway and looking at the Green Monster in left field. Since being traded to Boston his first 2 starts came in Fenway. He had a bad outing in first game which we expected and made a Play on the Over which won easily. In his second start he held the Tigers to just 2 runs over 6 innings and struck out 7 in the process. Striking out 7 in 6 innings shows he was comfortable and had all his pitches working. Now that is more like the Pomeranz that we saw all season in San Diego. Today he gets to pitch in LA as Pomeranz is back on the West Coast. Remember before pitching for the Padres this year he pitched for Oakland so pitching in California is definitely in his comfort zone. Hector Santiago goes for the Angels and although he has won his last 5 starts in a row there is major cause for concern if you dig deeper into his last 2 starts. In his last 2 starts he went 5 innings against Texas allowing just 3 runs and in his last start he went 5 1/3 against Kansas City allowing just 2 runs but in those 10 1/3 innings pitched 17 men reached base. 7 of the batters that reached base were on walks. That’s a WHIP of 1.64 meaning he was lucky to get out of those games with only 5 runs. Against this Boston line up you can’t have that many men reach base as the Red Sox have an explosive offense. In his 10 home starts this year Santiago has a ERA of 5.82 and a WHIP of 1.37. Pomeranz on the other hand has a ERA of 2.32 and a WHIP of 1.03 in 9 road starts. The Angels are averaging just 3.8 runs a game against lefties. Boston pounds lefties averaging 5.2 runs a game giving them another huge edge. Porcello threw a complete game last night so the Red Sox bullpen is rested and over the last 2 seasons when their bull pen is rested throwing less than 2 innings in back to back games they are 11-2 in their next game the last 2 seasons winning by an average of 2.7 runs a game. The Angels bullpen has been used hard the last 3 games as their starting pitching has gone 6, 51/3 and 5 innings the last 3 games. The bullpen did get some help last night as Chacin pitched all 4 innings of relief giving the rest of the bullpen the night off. Lastly the Angels are just 44-76 the last 2 seasons when they are the underdog. My numbers have Boston winning 6-3.
TAKE BOSTON as MARCO’S 5% MISMATCH GAME OF THE MONTH
