Diamond Trends - Saturday
By Vince Akins
SU TREND OF THE DAY:
The Pirates are 11-0 since May 29, 2014 when they are off a loss in which they never led and allowed more than two runs for a net profit of $1,165.
PITCHER TREND OF THE DAY
When Clayton Kershaw starts the Dodgers are 10-0 since July 2, 2013 as a road 140+ favorite after his team won the last time he started for a net profit of $1,000.
MLB BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:
The Marlins are 0-12 ($+1,350) since 2010 if their opponent has allowed at least 11 hits in each of the last three games.
CHOICE TREND:
The Orioles are 0-9 since August 10, 2013 after an extra inning win and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1,095 when playing against.
ACTIVE TRENDS:
When Julio Teheran starts the Braves are 13-1 since May 20, 2013 as a favorite after his team lost the last time he started for a net profit of $1,170.
By Vince Akins
SU TREND OF THE DAY:
The Pirates are 11-0 since May 29, 2014 when they are off a loss in which they never led and allowed more than two runs for a net profit of $1,165.
PITCHER TREND OF THE DAY
When Clayton Kershaw starts the Dodgers are 10-0 since July 2, 2013 as a road 140+ favorite after his team won the last time he started for a net profit of $1,000.
MLB BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:
The Marlins are 0-12 ($+1,350) since 2010 if their opponent has allowed at least 11 hits in each of the last three games.
CHOICE TREND:
The Orioles are 0-9 since August 10, 2013 after an extra inning win and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1,095 when playing against.
ACTIVE TRENDS:
When Julio Teheran starts the Braves are 13-1 since May 20, 2013 as a favorite after his team lost the last time he started for a net profit of $1,170.
SPORTSWAGERS
CFL
Ottawa @ HAMILTON
Ottawa/HAMILTON over 47 -110
(Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)
The buy-low, sell-high angle does not just apply to sides. It can apply to totals too and we find an example of that in this game. Hamilton has played three games and the totals in those games were 54, 54 and 50½ respectively. All three games went under the number and the reaction to that and to overall scoring being down is a very beatable number here. Both games so far this week have gone under the number. Over players are getting clobbered this year, which in turn makes them gun shy and many will shift gears but we’re not one of them.
Hamilton’s offense is loaded with outstanding receivers and for the first time this season they’re all healthy with a full week of practice under their belt. They also have one of the most dangerous offensive weapons out of the backfield in C.J. Gable. The Tiger-Cats come into this game 0-3 but two of their losses occurred against the great defenses of Edmonton and Calgary. The Tabbies take a huge step down in class here when facing the poor defense of the Redblacks. Incidentally, Hamilton probably should have won both those games. Dan LeFevour gets the call at QB for Hamilton and he’s the third different starter in three weeks. However, after replacing Jeremiah Masoli last week he got in plenty of snaps and he’s been taking most of the reps in practice this week. LeFevour is dangerous with his ability to run and is without question Hamilton’s best option.
The Redblacks aren’t scoring many points and in fact these two rank at the bottom of the league in all key offensive categories. But as the weeks pass and players get used to new systems and offensive schemes, scoring will increase. Ottawa’s Henry Burris is capable of going off in any game. Had his receiving corps been able to catch accurate passes right in the numbers, Ottawa would have scored a lot more points. Burris will be a little extra-jacked up here to perform well because the Tiger-Cats chose to release him in in the of-season in favor of Zach Collaros. Furthermore, the Redblacks figure to get a couple of short fields because the Tiger-Cats are turnover prone with 12 already in just three games. That said, we’re not counting on Ottawa to light it up here. A reasonable output of between 14-24 points is attainable. As for Hamilton, with all that offensive firepower, they figure to go off. This is their first “real” home game in close to two years. The fans will be crazy and the atmosphere electric. Hamilton has the horses to put up 40 points on their own in this one and they may not stop there.
NOTE: We’re passing on the Riders/Argos.
CFL
Ottawa @ HAMILTON
Ottawa/HAMILTON over 47 -110
(Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)
The buy-low, sell-high angle does not just apply to sides. It can apply to totals too and we find an example of that in this game. Hamilton has played three games and the totals in those games were 54, 54 and 50½ respectively. All three games went under the number and the reaction to that and to overall scoring being down is a very beatable number here. Both games so far this week have gone under the number. Over players are getting clobbered this year, which in turn makes them gun shy and many will shift gears but we’re not one of them.
Hamilton’s offense is loaded with outstanding receivers and for the first time this season they’re all healthy with a full week of practice under their belt. They also have one of the most dangerous offensive weapons out of the backfield in C.J. Gable. The Tiger-Cats come into this game 0-3 but two of their losses occurred against the great defenses of Edmonton and Calgary. The Tabbies take a huge step down in class here when facing the poor defense of the Redblacks. Incidentally, Hamilton probably should have won both those games. Dan LeFevour gets the call at QB for Hamilton and he’s the third different starter in three weeks. However, after replacing Jeremiah Masoli last week he got in plenty of snaps and he’s been taking most of the reps in practice this week. LeFevour is dangerous with his ability to run and is without question Hamilton’s best option.
The Redblacks aren’t scoring many points and in fact these two rank at the bottom of the league in all key offensive categories. But as the weeks pass and players get used to new systems and offensive schemes, scoring will increase. Ottawa’s Henry Burris is capable of going off in any game. Had his receiving corps been able to catch accurate passes right in the numbers, Ottawa would have scored a lot more points. Burris will be a little extra-jacked up here to perform well because the Tiger-Cats chose to release him in in the of-season in favor of Zach Collaros. Furthermore, the Redblacks figure to get a couple of short fields because the Tiger-Cats are turnover prone with 12 already in just three games. That said, we’re not counting on Ottawa to light it up here. A reasonable output of between 14-24 points is attainable. As for Hamilton, with all that offensive firepower, they figure to go off. This is their first “real” home game in close to two years. The fans will be crazy and the atmosphere electric. Hamilton has the horses to put up 40 points on their own in this one and they may not stop there.
NOTE: We’re passing on the Riders/Argos.
SPORTSWAGERS
MLB
Baltimore @ SEATTLE
Baltimore -105 over SEATTLE
(Risking 3.15 units - To Win: 3.00)
Frankly, we couldn’t give a rat’s behind who is pitching for the Orioles, as this one is all about fading Chris Young of the Mariners. The Orioles find ways to defeat strong pitchers and usually beat up on poor ones and Young fits the bill of the latter. Chris Young has started 19 games and has a 3.22 ERA after 117 innings. How can that be? Here’s a guy with the worst groundball rate in the league at 24%. Over his last five starts, his groundball rate is even worse at 21%. He has just 70 K’s in those 117 innings and it’s only a matter of time before he strings together a series of disasters. Young has been the beneficiary of a ridiculously high 88% strand rate over 50% of his starts. Overall, his strand rate is 80% and his xERA is 4.99. Young is 35-years old and totaled only 44 IP in 2010/11 due to shoulder issues, and missed most of 2013 due to thoracic outlet syndrome. Despite his 6’10” height, Young isn’t a power pitcher. His fastball is generally in the 84 mph range and he’s never piled up big strikeout numbers. Chris Young is pitching on borrowed time. His skills are horrible and if this home-run hitting team doesn’t get to him, it’ll be because of the yard he pitches in but even that can’t mask his deficiencies much longer. The Orioles at a cheap price against Young is perhaps the best value on today’s board.
Toronto @ N.Y. YANKEES
Toronto +121 over N.Y. YANKEES
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.42)
Leave it to the New York Yankees to bring in another aging veteran. Chris Capuano is 39 years old and hasn’t started a game since September of last year. He made 28 relief appearances this season as a member of the Red Sox before they released him. The Rockies picked him up and sent him to the minors where he was subsequently dealt to the Yanks for cash considerations. In Capuano’s last five outings in June, he surrendered 10 earned runs on 14 hits and four walks in just four innings. The left-handed Capuano's four 2014 minor league starts show promise (21 strikeouts and five walks in 19.1 innings), but a major league career 39% fly-ball rate and 1.2 HR/9 makes him a huge risk at this launching pad for right-handed hitters (Yankee Stadium increases HR’s by 16% compared to rest of league. Capuano’s 1.55 WHIP this season (1.41 last year in 24 starts for the Dodgers) almost assures us that men will be on base when one or more Blue Jays go deep.
Drew Hutchison has always flashed big strikeout potential and currently leads the Blue Jays staff in Ks with 102 in 113 innings. Hutchison has one of the unluckiest profiles in the game with a low 68% strand rate on the year to go along with an abnormal 32% hit rate. Once that normalizes his ERA will decrease. On the road, Hutchison is 4-4 with an ERA of 2.97. What's more, he's bumped his fastball velocity from 91 mph to 92 mph, but can reach back to the 95-mph range if necessary. Hutchison has been whacked in two straight starts and may be a little shell-shocked but he and the Blue Jays are a strong value play taking back a tag against a guy that couldn’t crack the Rockies horrible staff.
MLB
Baltimore @ SEATTLE
Baltimore -105 over SEATTLE
(Risking 3.15 units - To Win: 3.00)
Frankly, we couldn’t give a rat’s behind who is pitching for the Orioles, as this one is all about fading Chris Young of the Mariners. The Orioles find ways to defeat strong pitchers and usually beat up on poor ones and Young fits the bill of the latter. Chris Young has started 19 games and has a 3.22 ERA after 117 innings. How can that be? Here’s a guy with the worst groundball rate in the league at 24%. Over his last five starts, his groundball rate is even worse at 21%. He has just 70 K’s in those 117 innings and it’s only a matter of time before he strings together a series of disasters. Young has been the beneficiary of a ridiculously high 88% strand rate over 50% of his starts. Overall, his strand rate is 80% and his xERA is 4.99. Young is 35-years old and totaled only 44 IP in 2010/11 due to shoulder issues, and missed most of 2013 due to thoracic outlet syndrome. Despite his 6’10” height, Young isn’t a power pitcher. His fastball is generally in the 84 mph range and he’s never piled up big strikeout numbers. Chris Young is pitching on borrowed time. His skills are horrible and if this home-run hitting team doesn’t get to him, it’ll be because of the yard he pitches in but even that can’t mask his deficiencies much longer. The Orioles at a cheap price against Young is perhaps the best value on today’s board.
Toronto @ N.Y. YANKEES
Toronto +121 over N.Y. YANKEES
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.42)
Leave it to the New York Yankees to bring in another aging veteran. Chris Capuano is 39 years old and hasn’t started a game since September of last year. He made 28 relief appearances this season as a member of the Red Sox before they released him. The Rockies picked him up and sent him to the minors where he was subsequently dealt to the Yanks for cash considerations. In Capuano’s last five outings in June, he surrendered 10 earned runs on 14 hits and four walks in just four innings. The left-handed Capuano's four 2014 minor league starts show promise (21 strikeouts and five walks in 19.1 innings), but a major league career 39% fly-ball rate and 1.2 HR/9 makes him a huge risk at this launching pad for right-handed hitters (Yankee Stadium increases HR’s by 16% compared to rest of league. Capuano’s 1.55 WHIP this season (1.41 last year in 24 starts for the Dodgers) almost assures us that men will be on base when one or more Blue Jays go deep.
Drew Hutchison has always flashed big strikeout potential and currently leads the Blue Jays staff in Ks with 102 in 113 innings. Hutchison has one of the unluckiest profiles in the game with a low 68% strand rate on the year to go along with an abnormal 32% hit rate. Once that normalizes his ERA will decrease. On the road, Hutchison is 4-4 with an ERA of 2.97. What's more, he's bumped his fastball velocity from 91 mph to 92 mph, but can reach back to the 95-mph range if necessary. Hutchison has been whacked in two straight starts and may be a little shell-shocked but he and the Blue Jays are a strong value play taking back a tag against a guy that couldn’t crack the Rockies horrible staff.
Dwayne Bryant | MLB Money Line Sat, 07/26/14 - 9:05 PM غ
triple-dime bet 978 ANA (-120) BetOnline vs 977 DET Analysis:
3 Units (Max Bet)
[978] LA ANGELS -120
List Shoemaker & Verlander
We went against Felix Hernandez on the Run Line last night & cashed with the Orioles. Time to go against another well-known hurler tonight in Justin Verlander. The name alone would scare off many bettors, but the fact is Verlander isn't anywhere near the pitcher we've seen in recent yœears. The guy owns an ERA near 5! But that's not the worst part for JV. He threw 116 pitches in Arizona in his last start. There were four other times this season when JV threw more than 115 pitches in a game. How did he do in his next start? Total: 4 starts, 25.1 IP, 21 ER, 37 H, 11 K, 12 BB. That's a 7.46 ERA & 1.93 WHIP this season in his next start after throwing more than 115 pitches in his previous start. Notice he also walked more batters than he struck out in those games. That is some very bad news for JV & Detroit today, as they face a very potent offense in an Angels club that is also very tough at home.
Verlander will be opposed by Matt Shoemaker. Shoemaker's numbers aren't the greatest either, but he has the advantage of facing these Tigers hitters for the first time. He'll most likely give up a few runs, but I expect him to outpitch Verlander based on the info above. LA's bullpen is hit or miss, but I expect them to be handed a multi-run lead that they should hold here at home. The Tigers are actually 0-6 in Verlander's last six starts as a road dog of +110 to +150. I don't see that streak ending tonight. When you see Verlander listed as a dog against a virtual unknown like Shoemaker, there's probably a very good reason for it. Call it Angels 5, Tigers 3. MAX BET on the LA ANGELS.
triple-dime bet 978 ANA (-120) BetOnline vs 977 DET Analysis:
3 Units (Max Bet)
[978] LA ANGELS -120
List Shoemaker & Verlander
We went against Felix Hernandez on the Run Line last night & cashed with the Orioles. Time to go against another well-known hurler tonight in Justin Verlander. The name alone would scare off many bettors, but the fact is Verlander isn't anywhere near the pitcher we've seen in recent yœears. The guy owns an ERA near 5! But that's not the worst part for JV. He threw 116 pitches in Arizona in his last start. There were four other times this season when JV threw more than 115 pitches in a game. How did he do in his next start? Total: 4 starts, 25.1 IP, 21 ER, 37 H, 11 K, 12 BB. That's a 7.46 ERA & 1.93 WHIP this season in his next start after throwing more than 115 pitches in his previous start. Notice he also walked more batters than he struck out in those games. That is some very bad news for JV & Detroit today, as they face a very potent offense in an Angels club that is also very tough at home.
Verlander will be opposed by Matt Shoemaker. Shoemaker's numbers aren't the greatest either, but he has the advantage of facing these Tigers hitters for the first time. He'll most likely give up a few runs, but I expect him to outpitch Verlander based on the info above. LA's bullpen is hit or miss, but I expect them to be handed a multi-run lead that they should hold here at home. The Tigers are actually 0-6 in Verlander's last six starts as a road dog of +110 to +150. I don't see that streak ending tonight. When you see Verlander listed as a dog against a virtual unknown like Shoemaker, there's probably a very good reason for it. Call it Angels 5, Tigers 3. MAX BET on the LA ANGELS.
Dwayne Bryant | MLB Money Line Sat, 07/26/14 - 9:05 PM غ
triple-dime bet 978 ANA (-120) BetOnline vs 977 DET Analysis:
3 Units (Max Bet)
[978] LA ANGELS -120
List Shoemaker & Verlander
We went against Felix Hernandez on the Run Line last night & cashed with the Orioles. Time to go against another well-known hurler tonight in Justin Verlander. The name alone would scare off many bettors, but the fact is Verlander isn't anywhere near the pitcher we've seen in recent yœears. The guy owns an ERA near 5! But that's not the worst part for JV. He threw 116 pitches in Arizona in his last start. There were four other times this season when JV threw more than 115 pitches in a game. How did he do in his next start? Total: 4 starts, 25.1 IP, 21 ER, 37 H, 11 K, 12 BB. That's a 7.46 ERA & 1.93 WHIP this season in his next start after throwing more than 115 pitches in his previous start. Notice he also walked more batters than he struck out in those games. That is some very bad news for JV & Detroit today, as they face a very potent offense in an Angels club that is also very tough at home.
Verlander will be opposed by Matt Shoemaker. Shoemaker's numbers aren't the greatest either, but he has the advantage of facing these Tigers hitters for the first time. He'll most likely give up a few runs, but I expect him to outpitch Verlander based on the info above. LA's bullpen is hit or miss, but I expect them to be handed a multi-run lead that they should hold here at home. The Tigers are actually 0-6 in Verlander's last six starts as a road dog of +110 to +150. I don't see that streak ending tonight. When you see Verlander listed as a dog against a virtual unknown like Shoemaker, there's probably a very good reason for it. Call it Angels 5, Tigers 3. MAX BET on the LA ANGELS.
triple-dime bet 978 ANA (-120) BetOnline vs 977 DET Analysis:
3 Units (Max Bet)
[978] LA ANGELS -120
List Shoemaker & Verlander
We went against Felix Hernandez on the Run Line last night & cashed with the Orioles. Time to go against another well-known hurler tonight in Justin Verlander. The name alone would scare off many bettors, but the fact is Verlander isn't anywhere near the pitcher we've seen in recent yœears. The guy owns an ERA near 5! But that's not the worst part for JV. He threw 116 pitches in Arizona in his last start. There were four other times this season when JV threw more than 115 pitches in a game. How did he do in his next start? Total: 4 starts, 25.1 IP, 21 ER, 37 H, 11 K, 12 BB. That's a 7.46 ERA & 1.93 WHIP this season in his next start after throwing more than 115 pitches in his previous start. Notice he also walked more batters than he struck out in those games. That is some very bad news for JV & Detroit today, as they face a very potent offense in an Angels club that is also very tough at home.
Verlander will be opposed by Matt Shoemaker. Shoemaker's numbers aren't the greatest either, but he has the advantage of facing these Tigers hitters for the first time. He'll most likely give up a few runs, but I expect him to outpitch Verlander based on the info above. LA's bullpen is hit or miss, but I expect them to be handed a multi-run lead that they should hold here at home. The Tigers are actually 0-6 in Verlander's last six starts as a road dog of +110 to +150. I don't see that streak ending tonight. When you see Verlander listed as a dog against a virtual unknown like Shoemaker, there's probably a very good reason for it. Call it Angels 5, Tigers 3. MAX BET on the LA ANGELS.
GC: MLB Play
On Saturday the MLB Road warrior system Play is on the Chicago Whitesox. Game 973 at 7:10 eastern. The Whitesox have their ace C. Sale going and they should sail in this one as Minnesota has Logan Darnell going tonight, fresh off a Triple AAA Call up where he good not great. Sale on the other had has been Dominant on the road with a 2.27 era And his last 3 starts overall he has allowed 3 earned runs in 23 innings good for a 1.12 era. He is 5-1 vs the Twins. This game also fits a road warrior system that plays on road favorites in this range if the total is 8 or less and they are off a road win by 2 or more runs and scored 5 or more runs on 10+ hits and had no errors, vs an opponent like the Twins that are off a home loss and scored 5 or more runs. These road teams are 11-2 the past few years. Look for the Whitesox to win. On Saturday the 2 lead plays are the Triple Perfect MLB Game Of The Month from a Huge system that wins on Average by 4 runs per game, their is also a 5* Totals from an Undefeated League wide totals system in a game where their are 5 supporting power angles. Last night TOP play cashed as the A.L East totals play was a winner. Jump on Now and Flatten your book with the Most Powerful systems and data in the Industry. For the Bonus Play take the Chicago Whitesox. GC
Saturday card has MLB Triple Perfect Game of the Month and a 5* 100% Totals system leading the way. MLB Top Totals play Cashes big on Friday. Bonus Plays now 16-5. MLB Road warrior system Play below.
On Saturday the MLB Road warrior system Play is on the Chicago Whitesox. Game 973 at 7:10 eastern. The Whitesox have their ace C. Sale going and they should sail in this one as Minnesota has Logan Darnell going tonight, fresh off a Triple AAA Call up where he good not great. Sale on the other had has been Dominant on the road with a 2.27 era And his last 3 starts overall he has allowed 3 earned runs in 23 innings good for a 1.12 era. He is 5-1 vs the Twins. This game also fits a road warrior system that plays on road favorites in this range if the total is 8 or less and they are off a road win by 2 or more runs and scored 5 or more runs on 10+ hits and had no errors, vs an opponent like the Twins that are off a home loss and scored 5 or more runs. These road teams are 11-2 the past few years. Look for the Whitesox to win. On Saturday the 2 lead plays are the Triple Perfect MLB Game Of The Month from a Huge system that wins on Average by 4 runs per game, their is also a 5* Totals from an Undefeated League wide totals system in a game where their are 5 supporting power angles. Last night TOP play cashed as the A.L East totals play was a winner. Jump on Now and Flatten your book with the Most Powerful systems and data in the Industry. For the Bonus Play take the Chicago Whitesox. GC
