Service Plays Saturday 7/19/14

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Four MLB teams sportsbooks don't want to win the World Series
By JASON LOGAN

The MLB season has hit the turn and is heading toward home with the All-Star break in the rearview. This is the time when the contenders separate themselves from the pretenders, and sportsbooks online and in Nevada start picking their favorites.

We asked books to reveal which teams their cheering against – according to the liability of the futures market – and why these clubs could do some damage if they win the World Series.

San Francisco Giants (52-43, second in NL West)

The Giants started strong and drew a lot of action, especially with some sportsbooks pricing San Francisco as high as 30/1 to win the World Series back in April. San Francisco went 16-11 in April and followed that with a sterling 16-9 record in May. It came crashing to earth with a 10-16 June and is on a 6-7 skid heading into the second half of the schedule.

“In March, we took a lot of action on the Giants at 20/1,” Mike Perry. “I think that many bettors remember that in recent years, San Fran has been one of the better teams after the All-Star break, and are banking on another strong second half of the season from them.”

Milwaukee Brewers (53-43, first in NL Central)

The Brewers are one of the biggest surprises so far this baseball season. Milwaukee, slotted as a 10/1 long shot to win the National League Central and projected to win around 79.5 games, exploded out of the gate with a 19-8 record in the first month of the season. Things have definitely cooled off for the Brew Crew, posting a 2-10 mark in July so far. That’s makes books happy.

“We had one player come in and bet them when we first put them up at 80/1 (to win World Series),” Jeff Stoneback, sportsbook manager at the MGM Mirage in Las Vegas. “A guy came in and wanted to bet them to win like half a million. Was like $6,200 or something. We didn’t let him bet that, we had to cut him back a bit.”

Baltimore Orioles (52-42, first in AL East)

Baltimore has capitalized on a down year in the American League East. Boston is suffering a World Series hangover, New York and Toronto can’t stay healthy, and Tampa Bay is swinging a limp noodle at the plate. The Orioles have been on the up for the past few seasons but books still opened the O’s at long odds to win the World Series, which has them sweating a bit as the summer heats goes up.

“The first week of June we had the Orioles at 50/1 to win the World Series, and that is the main reason we are exposed on them,” says Perry.

Seattle Mariners (51-44, third in AL West)

The Mariners have the pitching to get the job done in October, but it will be up to their bats if the team gets there or not. Seattle, hitting .245 BA at the break, is eight games behind Oakland in the American League West but in the hunt for a wild card spot. They were as high as 75/1 in Las Vegas, where books have trimmed that price to 20/1.

“I think they’re like second or third in run differential in the AL,” says Stoneback, a Mariners fan pulled between the futures liability on Seattle. “But they hit like .250 with runners in scoring position and only like .240 overall on the season.”

Bonus note: The Chicago Cubs are among the biggest liabilities to the futures book, both at online and Nevada markets. Chicago was 100/1 to win the World Series to start the season and is now 1,000/1, but still draws action from Cubs fans blindly betting their favorite team.

 

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What trend hit big in major league's return to action?
Andrew Caley

Major League Baseball returned to action Friday and it was a good night for teams in the visiting dugout.

Road teams went 13-2 against the runline in the first day back since the All-Star break, hitting at a mark of an incredible 87 percent.

Away teams are coming in at almost 38 percent for the season.

 

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Angels acquire Huston Street from Padres
By Chris Cotillo

The sides have agreed on a six-player deal that will send three top prospects to San Diego.

The Los Angeles Angels have acquired Huston Street from the San Diego Padres, both teams announced on Friday night. The Padres will receive prospects Taylor Lindsey, Jose Rondon, R.J. Alvarez and an Elliot Morris in exchange for Street and minor league pitcher Trevor Gott. The deal is likely to be announced after the Padres' game this evening.

The Angels have reportedly been pursuing Street and Padres starter Ian Kennedy in recent days, but the sides were said not to be matching up on a deal for Kennedy. Instead of a bigger deal involving Kennedy, the Angels will part with a good chunk of their farm system to solidify their bullpen with the addition of an All-Star closer in Street.

Street, who recently said that he expected either himself or teammate Joaquin Benoit to be dealt before the trade deadline, has posted a 1.09 ERA and 24 saves in 33 innings with the Padres this season. He has reportedly drawn interest from teams looking for bullpen help such as the Pirates, Orioles and Giants, but now will join an Angels bullpen that has received a boost from new additions Jason Grilli and Joe Thatcher in the last couple of weeks. He will immediately become the team's closer, replacing Joe Smith, who has been strong in the role since taking over for Ernesto Frieri. Street is under team control for next season due to the $7M team option on his contract for 2015.

Gott, 21, is a right-handed reliever who has a combined 2-4 record, 3.56 ERA and 16 saves in 43 innings with High-A Lake Elsinore and Double-A San Antonio on the season. The 2013 sixth-round pick was not ranked by Baseball America as one of San Diego's top 30 prospects before the season, and projects as a late-inning reliever or closer at the major league level.

Lindsey, who was ranked by Baseball America before the season as the Angels' top prospect, is a second baseman who has hit .247/.323/.400 in 75 games with Triple-A Salt Lake so far this season. The 22-year old was a first-round pick (37th overall) in the 2010 draft and was ranked by Baseball America as the 93rd best prospect in baseball before the season, with his main strength being hitting for contact.

Rondon, 20, entered the season as the Angels' 12th best prospect, according to Baseball America. The shortstop has spent his season with High-A Inland Empire, hitting .327/.362/.418 in 72 games. He has a reputation as a four-tool player who is strong in every category minus power, and is an above-average fielder and runner.

Morris, 22, was 3-3 with a 4.17 ERA in nine starts with Class-A Inland Empire with 40 strikeouts and 28 walks in 45 innings. The Halos selected Morris in the fourth round of the 2013 draft.

Alvarez, who was ranked as the Angels' fourth best prospect after last season, has pitched to a 0.33 ERA in 27 innings out of the bullpen for Double-A Arkansas so far this season. The 23-year old was the Angels' third-round pick in 2012, and has been a consistently good reliever in the minor leagues for his entire career.

 

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M's Taijuan Walker is once again at center of David Price trade talks
Jon Heyman

The Seattle Mariners are interested in bringing in Rays ace David Price.

The Rays are said to have talked to the Mariners about pitching prospect Taijuan Walker plus two or three other top young players in talks involving pitcher David Price, league sources said.

Talks are ongoing and fluid, and deals being discussed could include just Price from Tampa Bay, Price plus Ben Zobrist or Zobrist alone.

It's all thought to be in the early stages, and Tampa's requests are not necessarily unreasonable for an ace such as Price, who is on a major hot streak and leads the AL in strikeouts and innings. Tampa hasn't yet definitively signaled that it would even trade Price yet, as it isn't that far off the pace in a surprisingly unimposing AL East.

The Mariners are loaded with top prospects, including D.J. Peterson, one of the best hitters in the minors, and left-handed pitcher James Paxton, who pitched a rehab start last night. Tampa is believed interested in those players as well.

The inclusion of Walker in talks is no surprise, as he was the key name this winter when those very same teams talked about Price. Eventually, the Mariners said no, as they were hesitant to part with Walker at the time, and Price's agent Bo McKinnis told Ken Rosenthal that Price preferred not to go so far as Seattle and wouldn't sign an extension with the Mariners.

Things may have changed for Seattle, which is now ensconced in the AL wild-card race. Scouts are expected at Walker's start Friday night for Triple-A Tacoma at Reno. He's pitched pretty well since returning from a spring shoulder concern and is considered a potential top-of-the-rotation starter.

The Rays are said to have had two scouts at their Double-A game Thursday against the Mariners' Double-A Jackson team, at Montgomery, Ala., though Tampa may have been scouting its own players, as well as Seattle's.

Seattle's other coveted prospects include shortstop Chris Taylor, pitchers Edwin Diaz, Luis Gohara and Victor Sanchez, outfielder/third baseman Pat Kivleham and catcher Tyler Marlette. The Mariners might be willing to include shoirtstop Brad Miller in a deal since Jackson has emerged as a huge prospect. Tampa has had a long-term interest in catching, but Seattle has said it will not trade its catcher Mike Zunino.

 

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Bob Balfe

Milwaukee Brewers +110

here is a pitching change today as Roark takes over for Gonzalez. As of 9am there is no line, but I am figuring the Brewers will become a small favorite. This is a Milwaukee team that is excited for the second half of this season after that losing streak they were on. This might be a team you ride for a week if they can win 4 or 5 in a row. Take the Brewers.

 

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R & R Totals

Top Pick

MLB Jul 19 ,2014 1:05p
[931] G1 Cleveland Indians [932] G1 Detroit Tigers Total 8½ ov+101
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R & R Totals

MLB Jul 19 ,2014 7:05p
[917] G2 Cleveland Indians[918] G2 Detroit Tigers Total 8 ov-110
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[cracy]

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS NL PITCHING REPORT
SATURDAY, JULY 19TH 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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#901 LA DODGERS @ #902 ST LOUIS - 4:05 PM
•Dodgers RH Zack Greinke (11-5, 2.73 ERA, WHIP: 1.163) - Greinke last pitched July 9 at Detroit, allowing three runs in seven innings but did strike out two in a scoreless frame during Tuesday's All-Star Game in Minnesota. Since a rocky outing at Kansas City on June 23, he has gone 2-1 with a 2.05 ERA in three starts while recording 26 strikeouts against two walks in 22 innings. Included in that run was a gem versus St. Louis at home on June 28, when he yielded a run on four hits in seven innings with 10 strikeouts to improve to 9-3 all-time against the Cardinals.

--KEY STAT: GREINKE is 11-1 (+10.5 Units) against the money line versus poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was GREINKE 4.3, OPPONENT 1.8.

--GREINKE is 6-19 (-14.9 Units) against the money line in road games when playing on Saturday since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was GREINKE 3.4, OPPONENT 4.3.

--GREINKE is 21-8 UNDER (+12.0 Units) versus teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was GREINKE 3.7, OPPONENT 2.7.

•Cardinals RH Joe Kelly (1-1, 3.44 ERA, WHIP: 1.528) - Kelly will be making his second start since coming off the disabled list due to a hamstring strain. His first outing since the injury did not go well, as Milwaukee got to him for six runs and seven hits in three innings in a game St. Louis would rally to win 7-6. Kelly did not allow an earned run in six innings in his only home start this year and owns a 2.98 ERA in 34 games (19 starts) in his career at Busch Stadium.

--KEY STAT: KELLY is 14-5 (+8.7 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was KELLY 5.7, OPPONENT 3.4.

--KELLY is 14-5 (+8.7 Units) against the money line in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was KELLY 5.7, OPPONENT 3.4.

#903 COLORADO @ #904 PITTSBURGH - 7:05 PM
•Rockies LH Brett Anderson (0-3, 4.95 ERA, WHIP: 1.700) - Anderson yielded six runs - five in the first inning - and 10 hits while walking three in five innings of a 13-5 loss to Minnesota on Sunday. "Not many positives about the outing.... My stuff was terrible, pretty much," the 26-year-old Texas native told the Denver Post. "After the first inning, I battled and tried to give us a chance to win. I can only feel good about staying healthy, and just have to put this one behind me and go on to the next one." Anderson faces Pittsburgh for the first time.

•Pirates RH Charlie Morton (5-9, 3.32 ERA, WHIP: 1.190) - Morton received his second consecutive no-decision after allowing five runs and six hits (two home runs) while striking out six in as many innings of the Pirates' 6-5 victory at Cincinnati on Saturday. The 30-year-old New Jersey native was far more effective in his previous outing when he permitted one hit in seven shutout innings of a 1-0 loss at St. Louis on July 7. Morton is 2-0 with a 3.33 ERA in four starts against the Rockies while having little trouble with Troy Tulowitzki (1-for-10).

#905 MILWAUKEE @ #906 WASHINGTON - 7:05 PM
•Brewers RH Matt Garza (6-6, 3.69 ERA, WHIP: 1.182) - Garza held Philadelphia to two runs over 7 2/3 innings on July 10 and owns a 4-2 mark with a 2.35 ERA over his last eight starts. Opponents are batting .233 against the 30-year-old, who took a no-hitter into the seventh inning in his last outing before running into the trouble in the eighth. Garza is 0-2 with a 5.74 ERA in five career starts against Washington, including a 3-0 loss on June 23 at home when he allowed three runs over seven frames.

•Nationals RH Tanner Roark (8-6, 3.01 ERA, WHIP: 1.135) - Roark bounced back from two shaky outings with a seven strong innings against Philadelphia last Sunday in a win, allowing one run on four hits with six strikeouts. “I'm pitching with confidence, and I really didn't try to nibble,” Roark told reporters. “The changeup was the biggest thing as far as getting ahead.” The 27-year-old, who is making his first career appearance against Milwaukee, stands at 4-4 with a 2.02 ERA in nine starts at home this season.
_________________________________________

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#907 SAN FRANCISCO @ #908 MIAMI - 7:10 PM
•Giants RH Tim Hudson (7-6, 2.87 ERA, WHIP: 1.101) - Hudson looks to find his early-season form after finishing 0-4 with a 6.07 ERA in his last five outings before being named to the NL All-Star team. The 39-year-old, who is 26 strikeouts shy of 2,000 in his career, is 14-4 with a 2.95 ERA against the Miami franchise in 25 career starts. Garrett Jones is 6-for-14 with a pair of doubles against Hudson, who boasts the best ERA among Giants starters.

--KEY STAT: HUDSON is 51-20 (+22.6 Units) against the money line versus an National League team with an on base percentage .325 or worse in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was HUDSON 5.2, OPPONENT 3.1.

--HUDSON is 49-19 (+21.7 Units) against the money line in July games since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was HUDSON 5.6, OPPONENT 3.7.

•Marlins RH Henderson Alvarez (6-4, 2.63 ERA, WHIP: 1.258) - Alvarez lost for the first time in 11 starts in his last outing, giving up six runs over five innings en route to a 7-1 loss to the New York Mets on July 11. The fire-balling Venezuelan allowed five runs (four earned) in six innings of a no-decision versus the Giants on May 16 and followed that up with nine straight starts of two runs or fewer. Gregor Blanco is 3-for-4 with three RBIs versus Alvarez.

--KEY STAT: ALVAREZ is 11-3 (+8.9 Units) against the money line versus National League teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was ALVAREZ 4.4, OPPONENT 3.6.

--ALVAREZ is 11-4 (+7.9 Units) against the money line versus an National League team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was ALVAREZ 4.1, OPPONENT 3.7.

--ALVAREZ is 13-5 (+9.0 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was ALVAREZ 4.0, OPPONENT 3.3.

#909 PHILADELPHIA @ #910 ATLANTA - 7:10 PM
•Phillies LH Cole Hamels (3-5, 2.93 ERA, WHIP: 1.202) - Hamels has won just once in his past seven starts, despite posting a 2.25 ERA during that stretch while allowing three or fewer runs in each contest. The Braves would not complain about a trade that sends Hamels out of the division as he is 14-8 with a 3.41 ERA in 32 career appearances against Atlanta. Hamels pitched seven shutout innings at Atlanta on June 16, walking two and striking out six without getting a decision.

--KEY STAT: COLE HAMELS is 4-14 (-15.1 Units) against the money line when working on 5 or 6 days rest over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was HAMELS 3.2, OPPONENT 4.3.

•Braves RH Aaron Harang (9-6, 3.53 ERA, WHIP: 1.381) - Harang was charged with eight earned runs against the Phillies on June 18, but held Philadelphia to two runs over seven innings on June 29 in the middle of a four-game winning streak since then. The 36-year-old has posted a 2.57 ERA during his win streak, allowing eight earned runs in 28 innings while pitching seven or more frames three times. Harang has surrendered more than three earned runs just once in his past nine starts.

--KEY STAT: AARON HARANG is 5-14 (-15.8 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) in the second half of the season since 1997.
The average score was HARANG 3.7, OPPONENT 4.9.

#911 CHICAGO CUBS @ #912 ARIZONA - 8:10 PM
•Cubs RH Travis Wood (7-8, 4.96 ERA, WHIP: 1.491) - Wood continued to struggle in Sunday’s 10-7 setback against the Atlanta Braves, dropping his third straight decision after matching a season high by surrendering seven runs over six innings. The 2013 All-Star handed out three more free passes – the fifth time in six outings he has walked at least that many – to increase his season total to 48 (the fifth-highest mark in the NL). Wood posted his first victory of the season after holding the Diamondbacks to one run in seven frames on April 21, but is only 2-4 with a 5.29 ERA in six all-time outings against Arizona.

--KEY STAT: WOOD is 8-2 (+8.2 Units) against the money line versus poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was WOOD 7.1, OPPONENT 4.3.

--WOOD is 16-6 UNDER (+9.5 Units) versus teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was WOOD 3.1, OPPONENT 4.1.

•Diamondbacks LH Wade Miley (5-6, 4.18 ERA, WHIP: 1.236) - After going 3-6 with a 4.78 ERA in 17 starts through the end of June, Miley improved to 2-0 with a 1.25 ERA in three July outings after tossing seven scoreless frames in a 2-0 victory over the San Francisco Giants last Saturday. The 27-year-old, who hasn’t pitched at home since June 24, has struck out 22 batters over his last three outings and is unbeaten over his last seven turns. Despite permitting five runs (three earned) in a no-decision versus the Cubs on April 23, Miley is 2-1 with a 3.90 ERA in four all-time starts against Chicago.

--KEY STAT: MILEY is 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) versus National League teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was MILEY 3.0, OPPONENT 2.8.

#913 NY METS @ #914 SAN DIEGO - 8:40 PM
•Mets RH Dillon Gee (4-1, 2.56 ERA, WHIP: 1.056) - Gee made a triumphant return from a two-month absence due to a strained lat, allowing one run and six hits over seven innings in a victory over Atlanta on July 9. The 28-year-old was just as impressive prior to the injury, going 3-1 while yielding three runs or fewer in each outing during a five-start span — including three scoreless efforts of six or more frames. Gee is 2-1 with a 1.35 ERA in three career starts against San Diego, giving up a total of three runs over 20 innings.

--KEY STAT: GEE is 12-2 OVER (+10.5 Units) in road games versus poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was GEE 5.4, OPPONENT 5.3.

•Padres RH Tyson Ross (7-10, 2.85 ERA, WHIP: 1.180) - Ross once again was the victim of little-to-no run support Sunday as he suffered the loss in a 1-0 defeat at the Los Angeles Dodgers despite allowing just one run in seven innings. The 27-year-old All-Star has yielded fewer than three earned runs 14 times this season but is just 6-6 in those outings and has received two or fewer runs of support in 11 turns, going 1-9 in those contests. Ross made his only career start against New York on Aug. 15, 2013, but did not factor in the decision despite giving up one run in seven innings.

--KEY STAT: ROSS is 14-3 UNDER (+10.6 Units) versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was ROSS 2.9, OPPONENT 2.8.
________________________________________________

 

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Brad Wilton

50 Dime
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N.L. Total of the Month

Under N.Y. Mets/San Diego

 

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Sean Michaels

Winning Day # 102 of 165
50 DIMER # 8 OF 12

SF Giants

 

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Anthony Redd

40 Dime Dodgers