DAVID MALINSKY
4* TORONTO over BALTIMORE
Both Brandon Morrow and Jeremy Guthrie sport similar ERA’s (4.86 vs. 4.77) and are off of recent struggles. But we see a major gap between the two in terms of the actual stuff in their arsenal right now, and that means a chance to also back the major team gap that exists.
Morrow was on a solid run until going up against the Red Sox and Yankees in his last two outings, but those games were not major sins – he still walked away with 11 K’s vs. three W’s against those lineups, and after facing eight winning teams in this last nine starts, he will relish the chance to step down in class here. Those chances have been rare – of the 126 pitchers that have worked at least 75 innings, his difficulty of batters faced is #8. That is one of two categories that help to keep him under-valued, with the other being that .358 BABIP, that is the second highest on our charts. When we note that he has 111 K’s vs. 99 hits allowed, despite the misfortune of the BABIP rates, he could be an excellent value play in the second half of the season.
We can not say the same about Guthrie. He has not won since May 25th, with the Orioles being out-scored by 27 runs in his eight starts since then, and his stuff has fallen off the table. He could not finish the 5th inning in either of his last two starts, with a 10.38 ERA in those games, and horrific counts of 16 hits and eight W’s vs. only two K’s. For the second straight season his W’s per 9 are up while his K’s per 9 are down, which ultimately leads to a crisis of confidence, especially in the brutal A.L. East – he is on an 0-14/5.67 slide against teams from this division since the All Star break LY, showing what happens when good hitters have seen all that there is from an arsenal that is nothing special.
4* TORONTO over BALTIMORE
Both Brandon Morrow and Jeremy Guthrie sport similar ERA’s (4.86 vs. 4.77) and are off of recent struggles. But we see a major gap between the two in terms of the actual stuff in their arsenal right now, and that means a chance to also back the major team gap that exists.
Morrow was on a solid run until going up against the Red Sox and Yankees in his last two outings, but those games were not major sins – he still walked away with 11 K’s vs. three W’s against those lineups, and after facing eight winning teams in this last nine starts, he will relish the chance to step down in class here. Those chances have been rare – of the 126 pitchers that have worked at least 75 innings, his difficulty of batters faced is #8. That is one of two categories that help to keep him under-valued, with the other being that .358 BABIP, that is the second highest on our charts. When we note that he has 111 K’s vs. 99 hits allowed, despite the misfortune of the BABIP rates, he could be an excellent value play in the second half of the season.
We can not say the same about Guthrie. He has not won since May 25th, with the Orioles being out-scored by 27 runs in his eight starts since then, and his stuff has fallen off the table. He could not finish the 5th inning in either of his last two starts, with a 10.38 ERA in those games, and horrific counts of 16 hits and eight W’s vs. only two K’s. For the second straight season his W’s per 9 are up while his K’s per 9 are down, which ultimately leads to a crisis of confidence, especially in the brutal A.L. East – he is on an 0-14/5.67 slide against teams from this division since the All Star break LY, showing what happens when good hitters have seen all that there is from an arsenal that is nothing special.
