Fox Sheets
Saturday, 07/17/2010 (919) TORONTO vs. (920) BALTIMORE Favoring: TORONTO on the money line. Play Against - Home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (BALTIMORE) - poor power team (<=0.9 HR's/game) against a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 to 1.400 on the season-AL
(48-10 since 1997.) (82.8%, +35.6 units. Rating=*)
The situation's record this season is: (6-1 +4.6 units).
Saturday, 07/17/2010 (917) TAMPA BAY vs. (918) NY YANKEES Favoring: TAMPA BAY on the run line. Play On - All underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =-190 to -135) (TAMPA BAY) - with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.100 over his last 10 games
(80-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.6%, +49.5 units. Rating=*)
The situation's record this season is: (9-5 +0.6 units).
Saturday, 07/17/2010 (929) SEATTLE vs. (930) LA ANGELS Favoring: SEATTLE on the money line. Play Against - All favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 (LA ANGELS) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.500 to 1.600 on the season-AL, after a game where the bullpen gave up no earned runs
(42-34 since 1997.) (55.3%, +44.1 units. Rating=*)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0 +3.3 units).
Saturday, 07/17/2010 (923) OAKLAND vs. (924) KANSAS CITY Favoring: Over on the total. Play Over - All teams where the total is 8 to 8.5 (OAKLAND) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.100 or better on the season-AL, with a rested bullpen - threw <= 2 innings in each of the last 2 games
(42-12 over the last 5 seasons.) (77.8%, +29.4 units. Rating=*)
The situation's record this season is: (2-2 -0.1 units).
Saturday, 07/17/2010 (931) DETROIT vs. (932) CLEVELAND Favoring: CLEVELAND on the run line. Play On - Home underdogs against a 1.5 run line (CLEVELAND) - below average AL hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA <=3.75), in July games
(39-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (83.0%, +28.7 units. Rating=*)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0 +2 units).
Saturday, 07/17/2010 (921) DETROIT vs. (922) CLEVELAND Favoring: CLEVELAND on the run line. Play On - Home underdogs against a 1.5 run line (CLEVELAND) - below average AL hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA <=3.75), in July games
(39-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (83.0%, +28.7 units. Rating=*)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0 +2 units).
Saturday, 07/17/2010 (907) WASHINGTON vs. (908) FLORIDA Favoring: WASHINGTON on the run line. Play Against - Home teams against a 1.5 run line (FLORIDA) - cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 10 games, with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 2.00 the last 10 games
(72-27 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.7%, +42.1 units. Rating=*)
The situation's record this season is: (16-6 +8.6 units).
Saturday, 07/17/2010 (917) TAMPA BAY vs. (918) NY YANKEES Favoring: TAMPA BAY on the run line. Play On - All underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =-190 to +165) (TAMPA BAY) - with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.100 over his last 10 games
(87-23 over the last 5 seasons.) (79.1%, +50 units. Rating=*)
The situation's record this season is: (10-6 +0.2 units).
Saturday, 07/17/2010 (927) TEXAS vs. (928) BOSTON Favoring: BOSTON on the money line. Play Against - Road favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (TEXAS) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better on the season (AL), starting a pitcher who walked <=1 hitters each of his last 2 outings
(37-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.3%, +30.9 units. Rating=*)
The situation's record this season is: (5-2 +4.6 units).
Saturday, 07/17/2010 (929) SEATTLE vs. (930) LA ANGELS Favoring: Under on the total. Play Under - All teams against the total (SEATTLE) - bad offensive team (<=4.5 runs/game) against an average starting pitcher (ERA=4.70 to 5.70)-AL, after scoring 4 runs or less 6 straight games
(44-13 since 1997.) (77.2%, +29.9 units. Rating=*)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0 +1 units).
Saturday, 07/17/2010 (929) SEATTLE vs. (930) LA ANGELS Favoring: Under on the total. Play Under - Any team (SEATTLE) - bad offensive team (<=4.5 runs/game) against an average starting pitcher (ERA=4.70 to 5.70)-AL, after scoring 4 runs or less 6 straight games
(44-13 since 1997.) (77.2%, +29.9 units. Rating=*)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0 +1 units).
Saturday, 07/17/2010 (921) DETROIT vs. (922) CLEVELAND Favoring: CLEVELAND on the run line. Play On - Home teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (CLEVELAND) - poor AL hitting team (AVG <=.260) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA <=3.75), cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 10 games
(48-22 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.6%, +34 units. Rating=*)
The situation's record this season is: (11-5 +7.1 units).
Saturday, 07/17/2010 (915) NY METS vs. (916) SAN FRANCISCO Favoring: SAN FRANCISCO on the money line. Play On - Home teams (SAN FRANCISCO) - good fielding team - turning 1.1 or more DP's/game on the season., after a combined score of 4 runs or less 2 straight games
(41-13 since 1997.) (75.9%, +28.1 units. Rating=*)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0 +3.4 units).
Saturday, 07/17/2010 (929) SEATTLE vs. (930) LA ANGELS Favoring: SEATTLE on the money line. Play Against - All favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 (LA ANGELS) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.500 to 1.600 on the season-AL, in the second half of the season
(53-47 since 1997.) (53.0%, +49 units. Rating=*)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0 +3.5 units).
Saturday, 07/17/2010 (909) COLORADO vs. (910) CINCINNATI Favoring: CINCINNATI on the run line. Play On - Home teams against a 1.5 run line (CINCINNATI) - cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 10 games against opponent hot hitting team - batting .300 or better over their last 15 games
(55-26 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.9%, +36.5 units. Rating=*)
The situation's record this season is: (3-6 -3 units).
Saturday, 07/17/2010 (919) TORONTO vs. (920) BALTIMORE Favoring: TORONTO on the money line. Play Against - Home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (BALTIMORE) - poor power team (<=0.9 HR's/game) against a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 to 1.400 on the season-AL
(48-10 since 1997.) (82.8%, +35.6 units. Rating=*)
The situation's record this season is: (6-1 +4.6 units).
Saturday, 07/17/2010 (917) TAMPA BAY vs. (918) NY YANKEES Favoring: TAMPA BAY on the run line. Play On - All underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =-190 to -135) (TAMPA BAY) - with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.100 over his last 10 games
(80-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.6%, +49.5 units. Rating=*)
The situation's record this season is: (9-5 +0.6 units).
Saturday, 07/17/2010 (929) SEATTLE vs. (930) LA ANGELS Favoring: SEATTLE on the money line. Play Against - All favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 (LA ANGELS) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.500 to 1.600 on the season-AL, after a game where the bullpen gave up no earned runs
(42-34 since 1997.) (55.3%, +44.1 units. Rating=*)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0 +3.3 units).
Saturday, 07/17/2010 (923) OAKLAND vs. (924) KANSAS CITY Favoring: Over on the total. Play Over - All teams where the total is 8 to 8.5 (OAKLAND) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.100 or better on the season-AL, with a rested bullpen - threw <= 2 innings in each of the last 2 games
(42-12 over the last 5 seasons.) (77.8%, +29.4 units. Rating=*)
The situation's record this season is: (2-2 -0.1 units).
Saturday, 07/17/2010 (931) DETROIT vs. (932) CLEVELAND Favoring: CLEVELAND on the run line. Play On - Home underdogs against a 1.5 run line (CLEVELAND) - below average AL hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA <=3.75), in July games
(39-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (83.0%, +28.7 units. Rating=*)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0 +2 units).
Saturday, 07/17/2010 (921) DETROIT vs. (922) CLEVELAND Favoring: CLEVELAND on the run line. Play On - Home underdogs against a 1.5 run line (CLEVELAND) - below average AL hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA <=3.75), in July games
(39-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (83.0%, +28.7 units. Rating=*)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0 +2 units).
Saturday, 07/17/2010 (907) WASHINGTON vs. (908) FLORIDA Favoring: WASHINGTON on the run line. Play Against - Home teams against a 1.5 run line (FLORIDA) - cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 10 games, with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 2.00 the last 10 games
(72-27 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.7%, +42.1 units. Rating=*)
The situation's record this season is: (16-6 +8.6 units).
Saturday, 07/17/2010 (917) TAMPA BAY vs. (918) NY YANKEES Favoring: TAMPA BAY on the run line. Play On - All underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =-190 to +165) (TAMPA BAY) - with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.100 over his last 10 games
(87-23 over the last 5 seasons.) (79.1%, +50 units. Rating=*)
The situation's record this season is: (10-6 +0.2 units).
Saturday, 07/17/2010 (927) TEXAS vs. (928) BOSTON Favoring: BOSTON on the money line. Play Against - Road favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (TEXAS) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better on the season (AL), starting a pitcher who walked <=1 hitters each of his last 2 outings
(37-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.3%, +30.9 units. Rating=*)
The situation's record this season is: (5-2 +4.6 units).
Saturday, 07/17/2010 (929) SEATTLE vs. (930) LA ANGELS Favoring: Under on the total. Play Under - All teams against the total (SEATTLE) - bad offensive team (<=4.5 runs/game) against an average starting pitcher (ERA=4.70 to 5.70)-AL, after scoring 4 runs or less 6 straight games
(44-13 since 1997.) (77.2%, +29.9 units. Rating=*)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0 +1 units).
Saturday, 07/17/2010 (929) SEATTLE vs. (930) LA ANGELS Favoring: Under on the total. Play Under - Any team (SEATTLE) - bad offensive team (<=4.5 runs/game) against an average starting pitcher (ERA=4.70 to 5.70)-AL, after scoring 4 runs or less 6 straight games
(44-13 since 1997.) (77.2%, +29.9 units. Rating=*)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0 +1 units).
Saturday, 07/17/2010 (921) DETROIT vs. (922) CLEVELAND Favoring: CLEVELAND on the run line. Play On - Home teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (CLEVELAND) - poor AL hitting team (AVG <=.260) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA <=3.75), cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 10 games
(48-22 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.6%, +34 units. Rating=*)
The situation's record this season is: (11-5 +7.1 units).
Saturday, 07/17/2010 (915) NY METS vs. (916) SAN FRANCISCO Favoring: SAN FRANCISCO on the money line. Play On - Home teams (SAN FRANCISCO) - good fielding team - turning 1.1 or more DP's/game on the season., after a combined score of 4 runs or less 2 straight games
(41-13 since 1997.) (75.9%, +28.1 units. Rating=*)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0 +3.4 units).
Saturday, 07/17/2010 (929) SEATTLE vs. (930) LA ANGELS Favoring: SEATTLE on the money line. Play Against - All favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 (LA ANGELS) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.500 to 1.600 on the season-AL, in the second half of the season
(53-47 since 1997.) (53.0%, +49 units. Rating=*)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0 +3.5 units).
Saturday, 07/17/2010 (909) COLORADO vs. (910) CINCINNATI Favoring: CINCINNATI on the run line. Play On - Home teams against a 1.5 run line (CINCINNATI) - cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 10 games against opponent hot hitting team - batting .300 or better over their last 15 games
(55-26 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.9%, +36.5 units. Rating=*)
The situation's record this season is: (3-6 -3 units).
COMPS:
1. NSA(The Legend) MLB - Braves -180
2. Ray "The Playmaker" Bowden MLB - Cardinals -135
3. VegasSI.com MLB - Nationals under 7
4. SportsAction365.com MLB - Cardinals over 7.5
5. Gameday Network MLB - Mariners over 6.5
6. William E. Stockton MLB - Rangers -125
7. Gerry "Big Cat" Andino MLB - Twins -140
8. Lou Panelli MLB - Padres under 7
9. Steve "Scoop" Kendall MLB - Rangers -125
10. Vincent Pioli MLB - Cubs over 10
11. John Morrison MLB - Royals -147
12. Tony Campone MLB - Yankees over 8.5
13. Chicago Sports Group MLB - Astros -110
14. Hollywood Sportsline MLB - Orioles +135
15. VIP Action MLB - Twins -140
16. South Beach Sports MLB - Braves under 8.5
17. Michigan Sports MLB - Nationals -120
18. NY Players Club MLB - Cubs over 10
19. Charlies Sports MLB - Rockies +100
20. Fred Callahan MLB - Rangers under 9.5
1. NSA(The Legend) MLB - Braves -180
2. Ray "The Playmaker" Bowden MLB - Cardinals -135
3. VegasSI.com MLB - Nationals under 7
4. SportsAction365.com MLB - Cardinals over 7.5
5. Gameday Network MLB - Mariners over 6.5
6. William E. Stockton MLB - Rangers -125
7. Gerry "Big Cat" Andino MLB - Twins -140
8. Lou Panelli MLB - Padres under 7
9. Steve "Scoop" Kendall MLB - Rangers -125
10. Vincent Pioli MLB - Cubs over 10
11. John Morrison MLB - Royals -147
12. Tony Campone MLB - Yankees over 8.5
13. Chicago Sports Group MLB - Astros -110
14. Hollywood Sportsline MLB - Orioles +135
15. VIP Action MLB - Twins -140
16. South Beach Sports MLB - Braves under 8.5
17. Michigan Sports MLB - Nationals -120
18. NY Players Club MLB - Cubs over 10
19. Charlies Sports MLB - Rockies +100
20. Fred Callahan MLB - Rangers under 9.5
Prophets Original Picks "SOURCE"
Consensus Picks 7/17 (Picks Source Updates Plays On Twitter)
BASEBALL PROPHET : MARINERS/ANGELS UNDER 9 +100
(5-11 L16 Picks/Lost 3 Games In A Row)
BASEBALL PROPHET "Picks Source" : FLORIDA -RL -1.5 -110
(10-4 L14 Picks/Lost Friday) (10-6 Since Leaving BP) (3-0 VS "BP" H2H)
Consensus Picks 7/17 (Picks Source Updates Plays On Twitter)
BASEBALL PROPHET : MARINERS/ANGELS UNDER 9 +100
(5-11 L16 Picks/Lost 3 Games In A Row)
BASEBALL PROPHET "Picks Source" : FLORIDA -RL -1.5 -110
(10-4 L14 Picks/Lost Friday) (10-6 Since Leaving BP) (3-0 VS "BP" H2H)
Jeff Benton
30 DIME selection on the TEXAS RANGERS over the Red Sox as this four-game series contiaues. Texas is a solid favorite raneging from -135 to -140 in this contest. Make sure to list Cliff Lee as the Rangers’ starting pitcher. If Lee doesn’t start, this play is VOID.
10 DIME selection the ATLANTA BRAVES on the run line over the Brewers in the third game of a weokend series. The run-line odds in this game are a pick-em both in Vegas and offshore. Pitchers are automatically listed with run-line plays, so both Tim Hudson (Atlanta) and Chris Narveson (Milwaukee) must start. If either doesn’t pitch, this play is VOID.
Rangers
That Cliff Lee struggled in his Rangers debut last week was not exactly a shock. The talented lefty had gone through a whirlwind 24-hour period where he got uproated from Seattle and shipped to Texas, the third time in 11 months that the guy had been traded. Plus, Lee’s worst career numbers are at Rangers Ballpark (he’s now 4-4 with a 7.33 ERA in eight starts there).
Anyway, you can expect a MUCH better performance out of Lee tonight. For one thing, he’s had the All-Star break plus a couple of extra days to get acclimated to his new situation. More important than that, though, he’s facing a stripped-down Red Sox lineup that has been decimated by injuries. Boston’s starting center field (Ellsbury), second baseman (Pedroia), third baseman (Beltre), top two catchers (Martinez and Varitek) and two key bench guys (Lowell and Hermida) are all on the shelf. In fact, all but Beltre are on the disabled list.
That means Lee will be facing a lineup that includes the names Eric Patterson, Daniel Nava, Bill Hall, Kevin Cash and Mike Cameron. Not exactly the ’27 Yankees, right? Conversely, Red Sox right-hander John Lackey will be squaring off against the likes of Elvis Andrus, Michael Young, Ian Kinsler, Vladimir Guerrero and Josh Hamilton.
Speaking of Lackey, he’s in a funk. He gave up seven runs in 4 2/3 innings in last Saturday’s 9-5 loss at Toronto, and it was Boston’s third loss in Lackey’s last four starts, with the veteeran giving up 17 runs (16 earned) in 25 2/3 innings (5.61 ERA). And going back to his days with the Angels, Lackey has not enjoyed much success against Texas, going 11-12 with a 5.87 ERA in 32 starts. Since September 2007, Lackey has faced the Rangers 10 times and he allowed 39 runs in 45 1/3 innings (7.74 ERA), with the Rangers winning seven of those 10 contests.
Now back to Lee. Despite getting roughed up in last Saturday’s 6-1 loss to Baltimore, he still pitched a complete game, his fourth in his last five starts and fifth in his last seven. And since May 28, Lee has gone at least eight innings in nine consecutive starts, and despite playing for a Mariners team with a piss-poor offense, he’s still led his teams to wins in eight of his last 10 starts, and he’s held 11 of 14 opponents to three earned runs or less, with nine of those 11 getting two earned runs or fewer.
Finally, this rivalry has turned in Texas’ favor, with the Rangers going 10-4 against Boston since the start of the 2009 season, including two easy wins to start this series. Throw in the fact that Boston is sluoping (2-7 last nine games) and the Rangers are rolling on the road right now (11-2 last 13 on the highway), and I’ll gladly lay this cheap chalk with the better team, the healthier team and the much more dominant pitcher.
Braves (-1½ runs)
The pitching stats tell the entire story here. Atlanta’s Tim Hudson has been remarkable all season, going 9-4 with a 2.30 ERA in 18 starts, including 5-2 with a 1.85 ERA at home. Only twice all season has Hudson failed to pitch at least six innings, and once was in a game with a long rain delay (he didn’t return) and the other time he went 5 2/3 innings.
Hudson has given up three earned runs or fewer in 17 of 18 trips to the mound (he allowed four earned in the other one), and breaking that down further he’s held 14 of 18 opponents to two earned runs or fewer. In his final start prior to the All-Star break a week ago today, Hudson outdueled the Mets’ Mike Pelfrey in New York, tossing seven shutout innings and yielding just four hits and two walks in a 4-0 win. Two starts prior to that, Hudson outdueled Stephen Strasburg in a 5-0 home victory.
I bring up Pelfrey and Strasburg because those two guys are legit big-league pitchers. Milwaukee’s Chris Narveson is not. The lefty has a 7-6 record, but it’s incredibly deceiving as his ERA is now 6.02 after getting destroyed in his last two starts, allowing 14 runs (13 earned) on 16 hits (four home runs) in just 8 1/3 innings in losing to the Cardinals (5-0 on the road) and Giants (15-2 at home). Milwaukee is actually 3-6 in Narveson’s last nine starts, with the losses being by 13, 5, 4, 1, 8 and 5 runs.
Despite losing last night, the Braves are the best home team in baseball (31-11), and they haven’t lost two straight home games all season. Also, they’ve still won five of seven and 11 of 17 overall. At the same time, the Brewers are just 4-6 in their last 10 games, with three of the wins coming at home against the crappy Pirates. And Milwaukee is still just 2-7 in its last nine games against the Braves.
Finally, as it pertains to laying the 1½ runs here, consider this: The final scores in Atlanta’s five home wins behind Hudson this season are 5-0, 3-1, 7-3, 13-1 and 10-1 – all easily covering the run line. And behind Hudson is a bullpen that has a 2.88 ERA at home (the Brewers relievers have a 5.01 ERA on the road).
30 DIME selection on the TEXAS RANGERS over the Red Sox as this four-game series contiaues. Texas is a solid favorite raneging from -135 to -140 in this contest. Make sure to list Cliff Lee as the Rangers’ starting pitcher. If Lee doesn’t start, this play is VOID.
10 DIME selection the ATLANTA BRAVES on the run line over the Brewers in the third game of a weokend series. The run-line odds in this game are a pick-em both in Vegas and offshore. Pitchers are automatically listed with run-line plays, so both Tim Hudson (Atlanta) and Chris Narveson (Milwaukee) must start. If either doesn’t pitch, this play is VOID.
Rangers
That Cliff Lee struggled in his Rangers debut last week was not exactly a shock. The talented lefty had gone through a whirlwind 24-hour period where he got uproated from Seattle and shipped to Texas, the third time in 11 months that the guy had been traded. Plus, Lee’s worst career numbers are at Rangers Ballpark (he’s now 4-4 with a 7.33 ERA in eight starts there).
Anyway, you can expect a MUCH better performance out of Lee tonight. For one thing, he’s had the All-Star break plus a couple of extra days to get acclimated to his new situation. More important than that, though, he’s facing a stripped-down Red Sox lineup that has been decimated by injuries. Boston’s starting center field (Ellsbury), second baseman (Pedroia), third baseman (Beltre), top two catchers (Martinez and Varitek) and two key bench guys (Lowell and Hermida) are all on the shelf. In fact, all but Beltre are on the disabled list.
That means Lee will be facing a lineup that includes the names Eric Patterson, Daniel Nava, Bill Hall, Kevin Cash and Mike Cameron. Not exactly the ’27 Yankees, right? Conversely, Red Sox right-hander John Lackey will be squaring off against the likes of Elvis Andrus, Michael Young, Ian Kinsler, Vladimir Guerrero and Josh Hamilton.
Speaking of Lackey, he’s in a funk. He gave up seven runs in 4 2/3 innings in last Saturday’s 9-5 loss at Toronto, and it was Boston’s third loss in Lackey’s last four starts, with the veteeran giving up 17 runs (16 earned) in 25 2/3 innings (5.61 ERA). And going back to his days with the Angels, Lackey has not enjoyed much success against Texas, going 11-12 with a 5.87 ERA in 32 starts. Since September 2007, Lackey has faced the Rangers 10 times and he allowed 39 runs in 45 1/3 innings (7.74 ERA), with the Rangers winning seven of those 10 contests.
Now back to Lee. Despite getting roughed up in last Saturday’s 6-1 loss to Baltimore, he still pitched a complete game, his fourth in his last five starts and fifth in his last seven. And since May 28, Lee has gone at least eight innings in nine consecutive starts, and despite playing for a Mariners team with a piss-poor offense, he’s still led his teams to wins in eight of his last 10 starts, and he’s held 11 of 14 opponents to three earned runs or less, with nine of those 11 getting two earned runs or fewer.
Finally, this rivalry has turned in Texas’ favor, with the Rangers going 10-4 against Boston since the start of the 2009 season, including two easy wins to start this series. Throw in the fact that Boston is sluoping (2-7 last nine games) and the Rangers are rolling on the road right now (11-2 last 13 on the highway), and I’ll gladly lay this cheap chalk with the better team, the healthier team and the much more dominant pitcher.
Braves (-1½ runs)
The pitching stats tell the entire story here. Atlanta’s Tim Hudson has been remarkable all season, going 9-4 with a 2.30 ERA in 18 starts, including 5-2 with a 1.85 ERA at home. Only twice all season has Hudson failed to pitch at least six innings, and once was in a game with a long rain delay (he didn’t return) and the other time he went 5 2/3 innings.
Hudson has given up three earned runs or fewer in 17 of 18 trips to the mound (he allowed four earned in the other one), and breaking that down further he’s held 14 of 18 opponents to two earned runs or fewer. In his final start prior to the All-Star break a week ago today, Hudson outdueled the Mets’ Mike Pelfrey in New York, tossing seven shutout innings and yielding just four hits and two walks in a 4-0 win. Two starts prior to that, Hudson outdueled Stephen Strasburg in a 5-0 home victory.
I bring up Pelfrey and Strasburg because those two guys are legit big-league pitchers. Milwaukee’s Chris Narveson is not. The lefty has a 7-6 record, but it’s incredibly deceiving as his ERA is now 6.02 after getting destroyed in his last two starts, allowing 14 runs (13 earned) on 16 hits (four home runs) in just 8 1/3 innings in losing to the Cardinals (5-0 on the road) and Giants (15-2 at home). Milwaukee is actually 3-6 in Narveson’s last nine starts, with the losses being by 13, 5, 4, 1, 8 and 5 runs.
Despite losing last night, the Braves are the best home team in baseball (31-11), and they haven’t lost two straight home games all season. Also, they’ve still won five of seven and 11 of 17 overall. At the same time, the Brewers are just 4-6 in their last 10 games, with three of the wins coming at home against the crappy Pirates. And Milwaukee is still just 2-7 in its last nine games against the Braves.
Finally, as it pertains to laying the 1½ runs here, consider this: The final scores in Atlanta’s five home wins behind Hudson this season are 5-0, 3-1, 7-3, 13-1 and 10-1 – all easily covering the run line. And behind Hudson is a bullpen that has a 2.88 ERA at home (the Brewers relievers have a 5.01 ERA on the road).
NEWYORK SPORTS INVESTORS
GAME#1
Saturday July 17 Game:: Chicago White Sox at Minn.Twins(7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: Under 8.5** Rating: 75 Dime Saturday Total of Year**
------------------------
GAME #2
Saturday July 17 Game::Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles(7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: Over 9**Rating: 40 Dime American League Game of Month**
-----------------------
GAME #3
Saturday July 17 Game::Arizona D.Backs at San Diego Padres(8:35PM Eastern)
Pick: Arizona+150**Rating: 25 Dime Top Dog**
GAME#1
Saturday July 17 Game:: Chicago White Sox at Minn.Twins(7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: Under 8.5** Rating: 75 Dime Saturday Total of Year**
------------------------
GAME #2
Saturday July 17 Game::Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles(7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: Over 9**Rating: 40 Dime American League Game of Month**
-----------------------
GAME #3
Saturday July 17 Game::Arizona D.Backs at San Diego Padres(8:35PM Eastern)
Pick: Arizona+150**Rating: 25 Dime Top Dog**
