Lee Kostroski 10* /ASA 3*
Lee's 10 * today at covers
Don't miss my 10* TOP TOTAL late Saturday night (Dodgers - DBacks)! I'm on an 80% run with my 10* MLB plays and hit 6 of my last 7 MLB plays overall. The last game on the board on Saturday and a WINNER for you
ASA MLB PLAY - Over the Total, LA Dodgers vs. Arizona, Saturday, July 3
ASA MLB - PLAY ON 3* Over 9 total runs, LA Dodgers (Kershaw) vs. Arizona (Lopez), Saturday at 8:40 PM CST
Lee's 10 * today at covers
Don't miss my 10* TOP TOTAL late Saturday night (Dodgers - DBacks)! I'm on an 80% run with my 10* MLB plays and hit 6 of my last 7 MLB plays overall. The last game on the board on Saturday and a WINNER for you
ASA MLB PLAY - Over the Total, LA Dodgers vs. Arizona, Saturday, July 3
ASA MLB - PLAY ON 3* Over 9 total runs, LA Dodgers (Kershaw) vs. Arizona (Lopez), Saturday at 8:40 PM CST
GamblersWorld
Tip of the Day - July 3, 2010
Date: 7.3.10 at 7:05PM
Game: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Current Line: Philadelphia (-125)
Over/Under: 8.5
Play On: OVER 8.5
Inside the Board Room:
Kyle Kendrick will be the starting pitcher for the Phillies on this day. Righthander Kendrick is 4-3 this season with a 5.00 ERA. Kendrick's opponent in this one will be Paul Maholm. The Pirates lefthander has a 3.98 ERA to go along with a 5-6 record this season. Ross Ohlendorf tossed seven scoreless innings with eight strikeouts on Friday, as the Pirates blanked the Phillies 2-0. The Pirates won the game as +120 underdogs, while the teams played UNDER that game's posted over/under (8.5) set by sportsbooks. Andy LaRoche drove in one run for the Pirates, while Octavio Dotel closed out the ninth for his 18th save. Jamie Moyer gave up five hits and one earned run over six innings in the Phillies loss.
Take the OVER tonight
Tip of the Day - July 3, 2010
Date: 7.3.10 at 7:05PM
Game: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Current Line: Philadelphia (-125)
Over/Under: 8.5
Play On: OVER 8.5
Inside the Board Room:
Kyle Kendrick will be the starting pitcher for the Phillies on this day. Righthander Kendrick is 4-3 this season with a 5.00 ERA. Kendrick's opponent in this one will be Paul Maholm. The Pirates lefthander has a 3.98 ERA to go along with a 5-6 record this season. Ross Ohlendorf tossed seven scoreless innings with eight strikeouts on Friday, as the Pirates blanked the Phillies 2-0. The Pirates won the game as +120 underdogs, while the teams played UNDER that game's posted over/under (8.5) set by sportsbooks. Andy LaRoche drove in one run for the Pirates, while Octavio Dotel closed out the ninth for his 18th save. Jamie Moyer gave up five hits and one earned run over six innings in the Phillies loss.
Take the OVER tonight
Scott Rickenbach’s MLB 10* (TOP PLAY) OVER in LA Angels vs Kansas City @ 9:05 ET: Santana vs Chen – RATING SYSTEM: Plays range from 6* on up to 10* so this includes 7* and 8* picks as well. 6*, 7*, 8*: most common play ratings with a 9* being a Top Play! 10* plays are a step above a 9* Top Play. The *10* is Scott's highest rated selection!
Play OVER the total in the Los Angeles Angels game as a *10* Top Play selection
Play OVER the total in the Los Angeles Angels game as a *10* Top Play selection
The Duke's Sports
Philadelphia Under (8') for 2 Units
The Phillies are decimated with injuries and should have more problems generating run production today; after all, Maholm controls a stellar 0.78 ERA in his last 3 starts vs them. On the other hand, the Pirates have produced a measly 12 combined runs over their last 7 games; fortunately, the Pirates starting pitching has been solid over the last few weeks (2.81 ERA). And Kyle Kendrick, who can't be trusted on the road, does sport a 2.45 ERA in 3 career starts vs Pittsburgh.
Philadelphia Under (8') for 2 Units
The Phillies are decimated with injuries and should have more problems generating run production today; after all, Maholm controls a stellar 0.78 ERA in his last 3 starts vs them. On the other hand, the Pirates have produced a measly 12 combined runs over their last 7 games; fortunately, the Pirates starting pitching has been solid over the last few weeks (2.81 ERA). And Kyle Kendrick, who can't be trusted on the road, does sport a 2.45 ERA in 3 career starts vs Pittsburgh.
PittViper 07/03
Saturday July 3rd, 2010:
Lines at 5 Dimes as of 3:55 am EST (Listed Pitchers)
Cincinnati Reds (J Cueto) at Chicago Cubs (R Wells) (1:05pm)
ROT# 951 - Cincinnati Reds -120
Philadelphia Phillies (K Kendrick) at Pittsburgh Pirates (P Maholm) (7:05pm)
ROT # 959 - Philadelphia/Pittsburgh over 8.5 -110
Philadelphia Phillies (K Kendrick) at Pittsburgh Pirates (P Maholm) (7:05pm)
ROT # 959 - Philadelphia Phillies -118
Houston Astros (B Norris) at San Diego Padres (K Correia) (8:35pm)
ROT # 963 - Houston/San Diego over 7.5 +110
Saturday July 3rd, 2010:
Lines at 5 Dimes as of 3:55 am EST (Listed Pitchers)
Cincinnati Reds (J Cueto) at Chicago Cubs (R Wells) (1:05pm)
ROT# 951 - Cincinnati Reds -120
Philadelphia Phillies (K Kendrick) at Pittsburgh Pirates (P Maholm) (7:05pm)
ROT # 959 - Philadelphia/Pittsburgh over 8.5 -110
Philadelphia Phillies (K Kendrick) at Pittsburgh Pirates (P Maholm) (7:05pm)
ROT # 959 - Philadelphia Phillies -118
Houston Astros (B Norris) at San Diego Padres (K Correia) (8:35pm)
ROT # 963 - Houston/San Diego over 7.5 +110
Vegas Sports Informer's
5 Unit Play. #978 Take Texas -140 over Chicago (8:05 p.m., Saturday July. 3)
(Game of the Week) Revenge Factor tonight in Arlington! The Rangers are off a rare home loss last night against the South Siders of Chicago. Texas is 21-7 in their last 28 home games and tonight we feel the Rangers are a great bounce back spot tonight at home. Tommy Hunter is on the mound tonight for the Rangers and in his first 5 starts he is a PERFECT 4-0 with an ERA of 2.15. Tonight we see Hunter go 5-0! Texas is also a PERFECT 4-0 when a left-handed starting pitcher takes the mound.
4 Unit Play. #658 Take Phoenix -3 ½ over New York (Saturday 7/3 10:05 PM)
5 Unit Play. #978 Take Texas -140 over Chicago (8:05 p.m., Saturday July. 3)
(Game of the Week) Revenge Factor tonight in Arlington! The Rangers are off a rare home loss last night against the South Siders of Chicago. Texas is 21-7 in their last 28 home games and tonight we feel the Rangers are a great bounce back spot tonight at home. Tommy Hunter is on the mound tonight for the Rangers and in his first 5 starts he is a PERFECT 4-0 with an ERA of 2.15. Tonight we see Hunter go 5-0! Texas is also a PERFECT 4-0 when a left-handed starting pitcher takes the mound.
4 Unit Play. #658 Take Phoenix -3 ½ over New York (Saturday 7/3 10:05 PM)
SPORTS WAGERS
MLB
Houston +1.56 over SAN DIEGO Pinnacle
Because of a brutal start to the year and some ugly offensive stats as a result of that brutal start, the Astros continue to offer up great value almost daily. They were shutout last night in a 3-0 loss but they faced Matt Latos and he’s been tough as shoe leather all year. In its previous four games the Astros scored a combined 25 runs and they’ve also gone 6-4 over its last 10 games. In other words, they’re playing a lot better now and that’s because they underachieved early. This is a decent team with a winning percentage of just .395 so there’s just now way they keep that underachieving pace and its ascent has already begun. Bud Norris makes his second start since coming off the DL and that has to be a positive thing. It’s almost like a horse in his second start back after a long layoff. Norris has outstanding stuff but his 6.84 ERA is what is noticeable on paper and thus, the big take-back. Thing is, he has 60 k’s in 48 frames and he’s walked just 27 batters. Upon his return he struck out six and walked one and he’s only going to get better. In this park, against this offense he most certainly has a great chance for success. Lost in the Padres’ surprising NL West run has been Kevin Correia’s month-by-month decline - including a 7.83 ERA / 5.99 xERA in 23 IP in five June starts. In his last three starts at this pitcher-friendly venue, Correia has allowed 24 hits and 14 earned runs over 16 IP and two of those three starts were against Seattle and Toronto. Win or lose, Kevin Correia as a –1.65 favorite is just plain stupid. Play: Houston +1.56 (Risking 2 units).
COLORADO –1½ +1.06 over San Francisco Pinnacle
Barry Zito (39 BPV, 2-4-4-0-5 PQS) is still getting mileage out of that hot April (1.53 ERA, 81% strand rate), as his ERA is still a very respectable 3.43. But his ERA in May and June was 4.30 and 4.50, respectively. His fly-ball rate by month (39%, 42%, 50%) isn’t encouraging and neither is he. Zito will deliver some decent games the remainder of the year but don’t count on too many, especially in this park. What he hasn't done is discover a time machine that has allowed him to travel back to the year 2002 and retrieve the skills he had when he won the American League Cy Young. Thanks to a fastball that tops out in the high 80's, Zito is still flashing the same mediocre stuff that says he can't get out of trouble on his own ... and that hasn't changed despite what his ERA would suggest. Fact is, he’s just not that good. Furthermore, the Giants are reeling with seven straight losses and one win over its last 10 games. They’ve scored three runs or less in seven straight and things surely don’t figure to get better here. Ubaldo Jimenez (90 BPV, 5-4-4-3-4 PQS) is still rolling along, going for his 15th win and still sporting a sub-2.00 ERA. His dominance/disaster splits are an amazing 94%/0%. The 90%+ strand rate he had in April and May finally pulled back in June, and he had a 4.41 ERA in the month but he’s still pitching very well and he’s still one of the best in the business. Play: Colorado –1½ +1.06 (Risking 2 units).
Los Angeles –1½ +1.04 over ARIZONA Pinnacle
It just so happened that the Dodgers were on the wrong end of a 17-run game last night when the D-Backs broke out for 12 runs. However, the Dodgers still scored five times and have now scored 34 runs over its last four games at this park. What can be expected when these two meet are runs galore and the majority of those runs for this one should come off the bats of the Dodgers. Rodrigo Lopez (30 BPV, 4-4-1-3-3 PQS) gets the nod tonight. Ian Kennedy was originally scheduled to start, but is being pushed back in an effort to mitigate the risk of overuse. Lopez has seen his command drop and fly balls rise after a decent April, and his current 4.42 ERA looks like a best-case scenario. The Dodgers have seen him twice already this year and that has to be a strong advantage for them. Clayton Kershaw (77 BPV, 4-5-5-5-5 PQS) comes into this game on a 10-game PQS-dominant streak. You have to go back to May 4th to find his only PQS disaster of the year. In 16 starts overall, Kershaw has a BAA of just .206 and he also has 108 k’s in 98 innings. This one could get ugly. Play: Los Angeles –1½ +1.04 (Risking 2 units).
Cincinnati –1½ +1.31 over CHICAGO Pinnacle
What can one say about the Cubbies after yesterday’s totally humiliating defeat? Poor Ryan Dempster needed to throw a shutout and hit a home run himself to win yesterday. Lou didn't even show up to make any postgame remarks. Maybe he's finally had enough. Now Randy Wells will start with the winds blowing out to center at 15-20 MPH. Wells has gone eleven consecutive starts without a win, so this game is certainly a story of two starting pitchers on divergent paths. Wells has gone 11 consecutive starts without a win and that has to take its toll. He’s consistently served up a 25% line-drive rate this year and that simply spells big-time trouble with the winds blowing out. Johnny Cueto might allow a few runs too but his chances of a strong outing are about 100 times better than Wells chances. Cueto also is a strikeout pitcher and that, too, is a big asset when a favorable hitter’s wind is blowing at Wrigley. No matter how you break this one down, the Cubbies chances of winning aren’t good. This is a team in complete turmoil and aside from seeing BB’s at the plate, they’re mentally drained to the max. Play: Cincinnati –1½ +1.31 (Risking 2 units).
Milwaukee +1.85 over ST. LOUIS Pinnacle
The most overrated and overvalued team in baseball continues to be the St. Louis Cardinals and taking back a tag like this, despite Chris Carpenter going, comes highly recommended. It’s worth noting that despite going 3-0 in June, Carpenters skills are trending downward. His walks are up (eight in the last two games) and his groundball rate is coming down game by game. Let’s also not forget that he pitched just 21 innings combined in ’07 and ’08 followed by 192 frames last year so fatigue could be setting in. He also took a line drive off his arm in his last start and it stung badly. In fact, it wasn’t even clear that Carpenter was going to be able to make this start. Also note that Milwaukee’s lineup is hot, with a league-leading .491 SLG over the last seven days. Manny Parra (86 BPV, 3-5-5-3-2 PQS) has faced the Cardinals more than any other team in his career, and he probably wishes he could face them all the time. Among teams he’s faced more than three times, Parra’s 3.00 ERA against the Cardinals is his best. Over his last five starts, Parra has allowed more than three runs just one time and that includes a game in Colorado and a game against the Rangers. There is huge talent here and there is also huge value so get on Parra before he’s back on everyone’s radar. Play: Milwaukee +1.85 (Risking 2 units).
UFC 116
MGM Las Vegas, Nevada
Brock Lesnar –1.20 (-2½ Points) over Shane Carwin 5dimes
When this fight was first announced it looked like Shane Carwin would be the play. However, on the day of the fight it sure looks like Brock Lesnar sports all the value. The only doubt surrounding Brock Lesnar is his ring rust and health after being away from the game for a year with a serious case of diverticulitis. Before his absence, Brock won the UFC heavyweight title in just his 4th career MMA fight and looked to be unbeatable. The only blemish on his MMA record was a first round submission loss to Frank Mir when he was still very green in the octagon. Since then he completely destroyed the likes of Heath Herring, Randy Couture and Frank Mir. Shane Carwin is 12-0 in his MMA career and 4-0 in the UFC. Nobody has ever escaped the first round against Carwin but his opponents in those matches aren’t exactly a who's who of mixed martial arts. His first two fights in the UFC came against Neil Wain and Christian Wellisch. Wain was one and done in the UFC with that loss and Wellisch is 2-3 in the UFC. His next victory came against Gabriel Gonzaga who has lost four of his last seven fights in the UFC. Gonzaga actually caught him with some effective blows that seemed to daze Carwin before being caught with a short right that sent him to la-la-land. Carwin won the Interim heavyweight belt by completely obliterating Frank Mir. Anyone who saw that fight may have noticed that something was just not right with Mir. He looked unmotivated and absent in his walk to the octagon and in his corner before the fight. Shane Carwin is certainly impressive but he has never fought anyone with the athleticism and explosiveness of Brock Lesnar. Carwin sports some wrestling credentials but Lesnar's resume is second to none in the UFC. Brock will try to neutralize Carwin's striking ability by putting him on his back. He will smother him, try to invoke his lethal ground and pound and try to wear him out. There are questions surrounding Lesnar's cardio following his illness but who says Carwin won't gas-out past the 1st round? In winning every fight in the first round, his cardio has never been put to the test. It's very hard for an athlete to do something they have never done before and Carwin will have to do just that if he wants to be victorious here. Carwin has the biggest hands and heaviest hands in all of MMA but Lesnar should never give him the opportunity to land a lethal blow. Brock will dominate this fight with his superior wrestling and overall athleticism. He opened the fight nearly a 2-1 favorite but all the late money has been pouring in on Carwin. Late money in MMA isn't always smart money, as it came in by the boatload on Chuck Liddell at UFC 115 against Rich Franklin. A lot of that money is public money and it flies in after MMA fans watch the highlight packages that are almost always cut to glorify the underdog. The value in this "superfight" certainly appears to be with laying 2½ points with the ever- dominant Lesnar. If Brock wins "inside the distance" our wager is a winner and if it goes to decision he will have to win by 2½ combined judges points. It is very unlikely that it will go the distance but if it does Lesnar should easily cover that. Play: Brock Lesnar –2½ points –1.20 (Risking 2 units).
UFC 116
MGM Las Vegas, Nevada
Brendan Schaub by KO/TKO –1.42 over Chris Tuchscherer 5dimes
Brendan "The Hybrid" Schaub is a guy that the UFC has been pushing for a while now. He made it all the way to the finals of the 'Ultimate Fighter: Heavyweights' edition but lost to Roy "Big Country" Nelson. Schaub certainly had credentials entering the UF house, playing professional football until starting off 4-0 in his mixed martial arts career. He rebounded from his loss to Nelson with a very impressive 47 second, first round KO of Chase Gormley. Chris Tuchscherer entered the UFC with a 17-1 record but was knocked out by Gabriel Gonzaga in his UFC debut. He came back to beat Tim Hague via majority decision in his next bout but that's the same Tim Hague that's lost three consecutive matches. Schaub is a natural athlete loaded with speed and explosiveness. He will dictate the pace of the fight with his edge in both wrestling and striking. Tuchscherer's biggest asset, his large frame, will actually be a liability against the quicker and more agile Schaub. Brendan Schaub is certainly a fighter on the rise and Tuchscherer is just a stepping-stone on his way upward. He is a fighter that likes to finish his fights and you can rest assure he will be looking for the knockout blow early and often. Play: Brendan Schaub by TKO/KO (Risking 2.82 units to win 2).
MLB
Houston +1.56 over SAN DIEGO Pinnacle
Because of a brutal start to the year and some ugly offensive stats as a result of that brutal start, the Astros continue to offer up great value almost daily. They were shutout last night in a 3-0 loss but they faced Matt Latos and he’s been tough as shoe leather all year. In its previous four games the Astros scored a combined 25 runs and they’ve also gone 6-4 over its last 10 games. In other words, they’re playing a lot better now and that’s because they underachieved early. This is a decent team with a winning percentage of just .395 so there’s just now way they keep that underachieving pace and its ascent has already begun. Bud Norris makes his second start since coming off the DL and that has to be a positive thing. It’s almost like a horse in his second start back after a long layoff. Norris has outstanding stuff but his 6.84 ERA is what is noticeable on paper and thus, the big take-back. Thing is, he has 60 k’s in 48 frames and he’s walked just 27 batters. Upon his return he struck out six and walked one and he’s only going to get better. In this park, against this offense he most certainly has a great chance for success. Lost in the Padres’ surprising NL West run has been Kevin Correia’s month-by-month decline - including a 7.83 ERA / 5.99 xERA in 23 IP in five June starts. In his last three starts at this pitcher-friendly venue, Correia has allowed 24 hits and 14 earned runs over 16 IP and two of those three starts were against Seattle and Toronto. Win or lose, Kevin Correia as a –1.65 favorite is just plain stupid. Play: Houston +1.56 (Risking 2 units).
COLORADO –1½ +1.06 over San Francisco Pinnacle
Barry Zito (39 BPV, 2-4-4-0-5 PQS) is still getting mileage out of that hot April (1.53 ERA, 81% strand rate), as his ERA is still a very respectable 3.43. But his ERA in May and June was 4.30 and 4.50, respectively. His fly-ball rate by month (39%, 42%, 50%) isn’t encouraging and neither is he. Zito will deliver some decent games the remainder of the year but don’t count on too many, especially in this park. What he hasn't done is discover a time machine that has allowed him to travel back to the year 2002 and retrieve the skills he had when he won the American League Cy Young. Thanks to a fastball that tops out in the high 80's, Zito is still flashing the same mediocre stuff that says he can't get out of trouble on his own ... and that hasn't changed despite what his ERA would suggest. Fact is, he’s just not that good. Furthermore, the Giants are reeling with seven straight losses and one win over its last 10 games. They’ve scored three runs or less in seven straight and things surely don’t figure to get better here. Ubaldo Jimenez (90 BPV, 5-4-4-3-4 PQS) is still rolling along, going for his 15th win and still sporting a sub-2.00 ERA. His dominance/disaster splits are an amazing 94%/0%. The 90%+ strand rate he had in April and May finally pulled back in June, and he had a 4.41 ERA in the month but he’s still pitching very well and he’s still one of the best in the business. Play: Colorado –1½ +1.06 (Risking 2 units).
Los Angeles –1½ +1.04 over ARIZONA Pinnacle
It just so happened that the Dodgers were on the wrong end of a 17-run game last night when the D-Backs broke out for 12 runs. However, the Dodgers still scored five times and have now scored 34 runs over its last four games at this park. What can be expected when these two meet are runs galore and the majority of those runs for this one should come off the bats of the Dodgers. Rodrigo Lopez (30 BPV, 4-4-1-3-3 PQS) gets the nod tonight. Ian Kennedy was originally scheduled to start, but is being pushed back in an effort to mitigate the risk of overuse. Lopez has seen his command drop and fly balls rise after a decent April, and his current 4.42 ERA looks like a best-case scenario. The Dodgers have seen him twice already this year and that has to be a strong advantage for them. Clayton Kershaw (77 BPV, 4-5-5-5-5 PQS) comes into this game on a 10-game PQS-dominant streak. You have to go back to May 4th to find his only PQS disaster of the year. In 16 starts overall, Kershaw has a BAA of just .206 and he also has 108 k’s in 98 innings. This one could get ugly. Play: Los Angeles –1½ +1.04 (Risking 2 units).
Cincinnati –1½ +1.31 over CHICAGO Pinnacle
What can one say about the Cubbies after yesterday’s totally humiliating defeat? Poor Ryan Dempster needed to throw a shutout and hit a home run himself to win yesterday. Lou didn't even show up to make any postgame remarks. Maybe he's finally had enough. Now Randy Wells will start with the winds blowing out to center at 15-20 MPH. Wells has gone eleven consecutive starts without a win, so this game is certainly a story of two starting pitchers on divergent paths. Wells has gone 11 consecutive starts without a win and that has to take its toll. He’s consistently served up a 25% line-drive rate this year and that simply spells big-time trouble with the winds blowing out. Johnny Cueto might allow a few runs too but his chances of a strong outing are about 100 times better than Wells chances. Cueto also is a strikeout pitcher and that, too, is a big asset when a favorable hitter’s wind is blowing at Wrigley. No matter how you break this one down, the Cubbies chances of winning aren’t good. This is a team in complete turmoil and aside from seeing BB’s at the plate, they’re mentally drained to the max. Play: Cincinnati –1½ +1.31 (Risking 2 units).
Milwaukee +1.85 over ST. LOUIS Pinnacle
The most overrated and overvalued team in baseball continues to be the St. Louis Cardinals and taking back a tag like this, despite Chris Carpenter going, comes highly recommended. It’s worth noting that despite going 3-0 in June, Carpenters skills are trending downward. His walks are up (eight in the last two games) and his groundball rate is coming down game by game. Let’s also not forget that he pitched just 21 innings combined in ’07 and ’08 followed by 192 frames last year so fatigue could be setting in. He also took a line drive off his arm in his last start and it stung badly. In fact, it wasn’t even clear that Carpenter was going to be able to make this start. Also note that Milwaukee’s lineup is hot, with a league-leading .491 SLG over the last seven days. Manny Parra (86 BPV, 3-5-5-3-2 PQS) has faced the Cardinals more than any other team in his career, and he probably wishes he could face them all the time. Among teams he’s faced more than three times, Parra’s 3.00 ERA against the Cardinals is his best. Over his last five starts, Parra has allowed more than three runs just one time and that includes a game in Colorado and a game against the Rangers. There is huge talent here and there is also huge value so get on Parra before he’s back on everyone’s radar. Play: Milwaukee +1.85 (Risking 2 units).
UFC 116
MGM Las Vegas, Nevada
Brock Lesnar –1.20 (-2½ Points) over Shane Carwin 5dimes
When this fight was first announced it looked like Shane Carwin would be the play. However, on the day of the fight it sure looks like Brock Lesnar sports all the value. The only doubt surrounding Brock Lesnar is his ring rust and health after being away from the game for a year with a serious case of diverticulitis. Before his absence, Brock won the UFC heavyweight title in just his 4th career MMA fight and looked to be unbeatable. The only blemish on his MMA record was a first round submission loss to Frank Mir when he was still very green in the octagon. Since then he completely destroyed the likes of Heath Herring, Randy Couture and Frank Mir. Shane Carwin is 12-0 in his MMA career and 4-0 in the UFC. Nobody has ever escaped the first round against Carwin but his opponents in those matches aren’t exactly a who's who of mixed martial arts. His first two fights in the UFC came against Neil Wain and Christian Wellisch. Wain was one and done in the UFC with that loss and Wellisch is 2-3 in the UFC. His next victory came against Gabriel Gonzaga who has lost four of his last seven fights in the UFC. Gonzaga actually caught him with some effective blows that seemed to daze Carwin before being caught with a short right that sent him to la-la-land. Carwin won the Interim heavyweight belt by completely obliterating Frank Mir. Anyone who saw that fight may have noticed that something was just not right with Mir. He looked unmotivated and absent in his walk to the octagon and in his corner before the fight. Shane Carwin is certainly impressive but he has never fought anyone with the athleticism and explosiveness of Brock Lesnar. Carwin sports some wrestling credentials but Lesnar's resume is second to none in the UFC. Brock will try to neutralize Carwin's striking ability by putting him on his back. He will smother him, try to invoke his lethal ground and pound and try to wear him out. There are questions surrounding Lesnar's cardio following his illness but who says Carwin won't gas-out past the 1st round? In winning every fight in the first round, his cardio has never been put to the test. It's very hard for an athlete to do something they have never done before and Carwin will have to do just that if he wants to be victorious here. Carwin has the biggest hands and heaviest hands in all of MMA but Lesnar should never give him the opportunity to land a lethal blow. Brock will dominate this fight with his superior wrestling and overall athleticism. He opened the fight nearly a 2-1 favorite but all the late money has been pouring in on Carwin. Late money in MMA isn't always smart money, as it came in by the boatload on Chuck Liddell at UFC 115 against Rich Franklin. A lot of that money is public money and it flies in after MMA fans watch the highlight packages that are almost always cut to glorify the underdog. The value in this "superfight" certainly appears to be with laying 2½ points with the ever- dominant Lesnar. If Brock wins "inside the distance" our wager is a winner and if it goes to decision he will have to win by 2½ combined judges points. It is very unlikely that it will go the distance but if it does Lesnar should easily cover that. Play: Brock Lesnar –2½ points –1.20 (Risking 2 units).
UFC 116
MGM Las Vegas, Nevada
Brendan Schaub by KO/TKO –1.42 over Chris Tuchscherer 5dimes
Brendan "The Hybrid" Schaub is a guy that the UFC has been pushing for a while now. He made it all the way to the finals of the 'Ultimate Fighter: Heavyweights' edition but lost to Roy "Big Country" Nelson. Schaub certainly had credentials entering the UF house, playing professional football until starting off 4-0 in his mixed martial arts career. He rebounded from his loss to Nelson with a very impressive 47 second, first round KO of Chase Gormley. Chris Tuchscherer entered the UFC with a 17-1 record but was knocked out by Gabriel Gonzaga in his UFC debut. He came back to beat Tim Hague via majority decision in his next bout but that's the same Tim Hague that's lost three consecutive matches. Schaub is a natural athlete loaded with speed and explosiveness. He will dictate the pace of the fight with his edge in both wrestling and striking. Tuchscherer's biggest asset, his large frame, will actually be a liability against the quicker and more agile Schaub. Brendan Schaub is certainly a fighter on the rise and Tuchscherer is just a stepping-stone on his way upward. He is a fighter that likes to finish his fights and you can rest assure he will be looking for the knockout blow early and often. Play: Brendan Schaub by TKO/KO (Risking 2.82 units to win 2).
