SPORTSWAGERS
MLB
Houston @ MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA -1 +120 over Houston
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.40)
2:10 PM EST. Scott Feldman doesn’t walk a lot of batters but that’s like saying Marcel Dionne can still skate. In 53 innings this season, Feldman has struck out a measly 25 batters. His swing and miss rate is a very low 6% and it’s only a matter of time before he finds himself on another team, the waiver wire or in the bullpen. Over his last four starts covering 20.1 innings, Feldman has surrendered 38 hits and 18 runs. He has posted a WHIP of 1.83 to go along with an ERA of 6.84 over the past month. Furthermore in two day games this year, Feldman is 0-2 with an ERA of 7.30 and an oppBA of .304. Feldman’s skills are all trending the wrong way and his margin for error keeps getting thinner.
Kyle Gibson has suddenly appeared on our radar because his under the hood stats have improved in a big way. Here’s a guy that went 2-4 with a 6.53 ERA in 51 innings last year and has a 4.35 ERA this year after 11 starts. Called up on June 24th of last season, this former top prospect has not come close to expectations but he’s a student of the game that has started to figure it out. Gibson is tall at 6’6” and uses his height and arm slot effectively to pitch downhill and keeps his fastball low in the zone. Gibson uses both a two-seam and four-seam fastball that generally works in the 89-94 mph range. He induces tons of groundballs and can effectively pitch to contact and get hitters out early. He also has the ability to wipe out hitters with an above average slider and excellent change-up that features high-quality sink. At his best, Gibson has three above average offerings that he throws for strikes. His groundball rate on the year is 53% but over his past five starts that has risen to 59%. Over his last three starts, Gibson has not issued a single walk. He only has 30 K’s in 62 innings but that’s misleading because his 11% swing and miss rate screams that his K rate is much lower than it should be. Kyle Gibson has the best raw stuff of any starter on the Twins and it’s not close. He’s a pitcher whose stock may soar and now is the time to buy low. There are seeds of something great here.
Philadelphia @ CINCINNATI
Philadelphia +126 over CINCINNATI
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.52)
The Phillies snapped a six-game losing streak with an 8-0 victory in the opener last night and that takes a big load off their shoulders. Remarkably, Philadelphia has now defeated the Reds in three straight this year while outscoring them 28-4 over that span. Roberto Hernandez doesn’t have great stats but what he does have is a decent strikeout rate (47 K’s in 58 innings) combined with a high groundball rate of 52%. In fact, Hernandez is posting his best strikeout totals since his Fausto days. He’ll now face a Reds’ team that his batting .222 over their last 10 games and that has scored three runs at home over their last three games.
Alfredo Simon has been one of the bigger surprises early on in 2014. After going almost three years without a MLB start, the 33-year-old has a 7-3 record, a 3.03 ERA and 1.11 WHIP through nine starts. However, Simon’s beneath the surface stats tell a different story. Simon has been helped by plenty of good luck with a low 24% hit rate and a unsustainable 80% strand rate. His xERA points to some serious regression. Simon’s 6% swing and miss rate and his groundball/fly-ball profile over his past five starts of 42%/37% suggest he’s walking a very fine line. Simon's age and skill profile cast doubt he can keep up the hot start for much longer. ERA should correct once the luck factors straighten out and there isn't much room for growth this late in his career. Simon's high wire act is one to fade and we’re on it.
St. Louis @ TORONTO
TORONTO -1½ +133 over St. Louis
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.66)
1:05 PM EST. Perhaps we missed an opportunity last night by not spotting the runs with the Blue Jays but we’re not going to miss it here. The Blue Jays’ 3-1 victory last night was a flattering score to the Cardinals, as Toronto had men on base every inning and they were a hit or two away from winning by five or six runs. The Jays also hit into a triple play on a line-drive with the bases jammed. The Blue Jays have now won five in a row and 20 of their past 24 games while the Cardinals have two victories over their last 10 games, one against Jason Vargas and the other against Yusmeiro Petit of the Giants. Over that 10-game stretch, St. Louis is batting .223 and has scored 30 runs and now they’ll have to deal with the crafty Mark Buehrle.
This wager is not based on Buehrle however. This one is based on the play of the scoring Blue Jays and their hot hitting lineup. Cardinals pitcher, Shelby Miller could not have picked a worse time to face the Blue Jays. Miller's poor strikeout and walk rates have caught up with him in his two most recent outings when the Cincinnati Reds and New York Yankees tagged him for 11 earned runs in 10 innings. His luck with stranding runners in scoring position also ran out. As of now, Miller has the highest walk rate (12 percent) among starting pitchers and his strikeout-walk ratio (1.44) is the third worst. He's also allowing 1.31 home runs per nine innings and the Jays lead the majors with 89 jacks. Left-handed hitters have been doing plenty of damage against Miller as well, because he doesn't have an effective off-speed pitch to keep them from sitting on his fastball. Shelby Miller isn’t fooling anyone these days and his awful profile suggests a very early exit against this patient and potent lineup.
