SPORTS WAGERS
Philadelphia +101 over PITTSBURGH
Charlie Morton went 2-12 with a 7.57 ERA in 80 IP at Pitt last year. Murphy's Law got him in 2010: June DL trip for shoulder injury - Unlucky hit %, strand % and hr/f rates combined with poor run support (2.6 runs/gm) and that’s what you get. xERA said it was going to get better. Not good, just better but that hasn’t been the case, as it’s gone eye-opening good so far. The question is, will it last? After last season, it was easy to forget that Morton was once a promising prospect from the Braves organization, but if the **BPV’s (for explanation of BPV see bottom of these write-ups) are right, and they usually are, the chances of Morton ending up on the National League ERA leaderboard at the end of the season are slim and none. Compare Morton's xERA (4.47) to his ERA (2.51). When Morton's hit % and strand % normalize, a correction is coming. Want further proof? That WHIP of 1.37 just doesn't align with a 2.51 ERA. Morton's sinker has always been effective against RHB, but LHB continue to pound him. Don't be surprised if managers start feeding Morton a heavy diet of LHB in the very near future and Charlie Manuel has plenty of those available (Howard, Gload, Rollins, Utley, Ibanez and Victorino). Perhaps that’s why Charlie Morton is 0-2 in his career v the Phillies with an ERA of 9.75. Nobody is arguing that Charlie Morton's surface stats show great improvement this season, but at the end of the day, a pitcher with a 14 BPV is not likely to end up with a sub-3.00 ERA. Kyle Kendrick is 4-0 vs. the Bucs with a 2.61 ERA and he’s very likely in for another good game. Like Morton, Kendrick has always been hit hard by lefties but the Pirates are short on them. Only Lyle Overbay (.229), Garrett Jones (.228) and Neil Walker bat from the left side and two of those three guys are struggling. Furthermore, Kendrick’s numbers this year are greatly improved vs. lefties, as they’re hitting just .217 against him (10-46). Forgotten in all of this is the fact that the Pirates have two key guys on the rack in Ryan Doumit and Pedro Alvarez and that hurts. Lastly, and it may not mean a thing, but the Phillies are 7-1 in Saturday games. Play: Philadelphia +101 (Risking 2 units).
Houston +138 over SAN DIEGO
This line is just plain stupid. Yeah, the Padres won last night but so what. They continue to struggle at home with a BA of .201 and an even worse BA over its past 10 home games of .187. The Astros are sixth in the NL in runs scored and they just got Jeff Keppinger back a week ago. Keppinger is hitting .333 in his seven games back and is batting fifth. Current Astros have seen Aaron Harang plenty of times and they’ve torched him pretty good. They have a combined 56 hits against him in 172 career AB’s for a combined BA of .326. We’re not even going inside Harang’s numbers because every pitcher’s numbers are skewed at Petco. Harang’s ERA on the road is 4.84 and at home it’s .3.40, where he’s pitched six of his 10 starts. Fact is, when anyone not named Latos is pitching for the Pads they have at best a 45% chance of winning. Houston has won Aneury Rodriguez’s last three starts. We’re not going to make an argument that this guy is the second coming of J.R. Richard but he’s getting run support, he’s keeping his team in games and the Astros are just a better offensive club. Play: Houston +138 (Risking 2 units).
Texas +103 over CLEVELAND
Fausto Carmona looks like an upper-tier SP with the bases empty: 61% GB%, 95 BPV. Both his strikeout rate, groundball % and command erode with runners on base (48% GB%, 41 BPV) With the Rangers seeing beach balls, expect some runners on base. All the Rangers have done is score 18 times in the first two games of this series and have now scored 60 runs in their past seven games. Ouch. That alone makes them worthy of a play here. Then there’s Derek Holland. This guy is getting better with each passing start. He has an incredible 69% GB rate against lefties and the Indians are much better against righties. In fact, Cleveland is 13-4 against righties at home while they’re just 9-7 against southpaws. Holland has a 3.41 ERA on the road and remains a legit breakout candidate. Oh, BTW, the Rangers have beaten Cleveland nine of the past 10 times and 14 of the last 17 games. Play: Texas +103 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto –116 over BALTIMORE
This one is almost unfair. For one, the Jays are the Orioles daddy. Toronto has beaten Baltimore in 16 of the past 19 games including the opener last night 8-4. Secondly, the Blue Jays are scoring runs at will these days with 53 in the past six games. They’ve scored eight runs or more in five of those six games. The O’s have scored 17 runs over that same stretch and four of them came last night when they were down 7-0 and 8-2. Another four runs came in one inning against Oakland. To make matters even worse for Baltimore, they’ll face lefty Ricky Romero. The Orioles have won six of 18 games versus lefties and Romero is an ace. The Jays will see Jake Arietta. Arietta went 6-6 with a 4.66 ERA in 100 IP last year. He struggled to adjust to the majors and couldn't get lefties out. Also, he's trying to rehab a sore elbow instead of having surgery. Does that ever work? He got off to a good start but those elbow issues could be showing up again. He lasted 2.1 innings in his last start at Seattle. He’s walked 10 batters in his last 11 frames. Over his last three starts his ERA is 9.00 and aside from not being able to get folks out, his confidence is rattled. Yeah, we hate to lay anything in a baseball game but this one warrants it. Play: Toronto –116 (Risking 2.32 units to win 2).
Minnesota +137 over KANSAS CITY
If Carl Pavano could beat the Royals yesterday, surely Nick Blackburn can do the same. Of course it doesn’t work that way but Luke Hochevar should not be favored by this much over anyone. Hochevar has thrown 78 innings and has a lousy 37 k’s. With a low strand rate of 62% he still has an ERA of 4.96 and that’s not good. When more of those base-runners score, his ERA will rise a little more. In his last two games against the Angels and O’s (not exactly the cream of the crop) Hochevar has walked six and struck out three. He also allowed 12 runs over those two games and the Royals lost them both, 10-8 and 9-2. Hochevar is on a five-game winless start streak. Winning does wonders for a club and the underachieving Twins have won the first two games of this series with two bad pitchers going. Nick Blackburn lost four straight outings April 9-28 but has been solid since, going 3-0 with a 2.53 ERA over his last six outings. He’s an extreme groundball pitcher with a GB/FB rate of 52%/29% and that should bode well here. He’s also had plenty of success against K.C. with a BAA of .233 in 88 AB’s versus current Royals hitters. Overlay. Play: Minnesota +137 (Risking 2 units).
