JIMMY BOYD
3* Angels -130
We missed with the Angels in extras last night as they blew a 3-2 lead in the 8th, but I'll come right back with them tonight. The Rockies are 0-4 in Cook's last 4 starts, and he is 0-4 with an ERA of 7.39 on the road this season. Saunders hasn't been much better at home, but I strongly feel that is just an aberration. Saunders have proven to be the guy the Angels want on the mound following a loss as they are 30-13 in his last 43 starts following a team loss in their previous game. They are also are 29-11 in his last 40 starts with 5 days of rest and 16-6 in his last 22 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Angels have still won 9 of the last 13 in this matchup, and I really like their chances at home tonight.
3* Angels -130
We missed with the Angels in extras last night as they blew a 3-2 lead in the 8th, but I'll come right back with them tonight. The Rockies are 0-4 in Cook's last 4 starts, and he is 0-4 with an ERA of 7.39 on the road this season. Saunders hasn't been much better at home, but I strongly feel that is just an aberration. Saunders have proven to be the guy the Angels want on the mound following a loss as they are 30-13 in his last 43 starts following a team loss in their previous game. They are also are 29-11 in his last 40 starts with 5 days of rest and 16-6 in his last 22 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Angels have still won 9 of the last 13 in this matchup, and I really like their chances at home tonight.
ROBERT FERRINGO
SIDES
2-Unit Play. Take #912 Tampa Bay (-1.5, +105) over Arizona
1-Unit Play. Take #903 Philadelphia (-135) over Toronto
1-Unit Play. Take #921 Boston (-140) over San Francisco
1-Unit Play. Take #930 L.A. Angels (-130) over* Colorado
TOTALS
1.5-Unit Play. Take Under 9.5 Cleveland at Cincinnati
1.5-Unit Play. Take Under 10.5 Houston at Texas
1.5-Unit Play. Take Over 9.5 Colorado at L.A. Angels
1-Unit Play. Take Over 8.5 Arizona at Tampa Bay
1-Unit Play. Take Over 9.0 Philadelphia at Toronto
1-Unit Play. Take Under 9.0 Chicago Cubs at Chicago W
SIDES
2-Unit Play. Take #912 Tampa Bay (-1.5, +105) over Arizona
1-Unit Play. Take #903 Philadelphia (-135) over Toronto
1-Unit Play. Take #921 Boston (-140) over San Francisco
1-Unit Play. Take #930 L.A. Angels (-130) over* Colorado
TOTALS
1.5-Unit Play. Take Under 9.5 Cleveland at Cincinnati
1.5-Unit Play. Take Under 10.5 Houston at Texas
1.5-Unit Play. Take Over 9.5 Colorado at L.A. Angels
1-Unit Play. Take Over 8.5 Arizona at Tampa Bay
1-Unit Play. Take Over 9.0 Philadelphia at Toronto
1-Unit Play. Take Under 9.0 Chicago Cubs at Chicago W
SPORTS WAGERS
PHILADELPHIA –1½ +1.26 over Toronto
The Jays are the “home team” here. Yeah, ok. This is a rare opportunity to play the true home team getting all nine at bats but chances are it won’t matter. The Jays are second last in the majors in team BA, just two lousy points ahead of the Astros. Over its last 20 games, the Jays are dead last with a team BA of .217, 14 points worse than the Mariners and 25 points worse than the Astros. The Jays have also lost four of its last five games and they’ve been shutout in two of its last three. The Jays numbers are even worse against lefties and they’ll face one here in Cole Hamels. Hamels is not pitching good, he’s pitching great. He’s gone nine straight starts without allowing more than three earned runs in any of them. That includes two games against the Red Sox, not to mention games in Minnesota, at New York against the Mets, at Atlanta and three games at home in this very difficult hitter’s park. Hamels has a BAA in June of .183 and overall he’s struck out 85 batters in 86.1 innings. Shaun Marcum is having a good year but he’s on the verge of an implosion. His last two games he threw against San Fran and San Diego and didn’t look sharp but got by. Previously, he allowed 10 hits in both back-to-back games against the Rays. In four June starts his BAA is .300 and after missing all of last year, his arm is beginning to show real signs of wear and tear. He looked exhausted in his last start against the Giants in which he threw 102 pitches in five innings. The Phillies offense has woke up big time with 27 runs in its last three games and that’s big time bad news for Marcum. Play: Philadelphia –1½ +1.26 (Risking 2 units).
Colorado +1.22 over L.A. ANGELS
Joe Saunders has one foot in the grave and it’s not going to be long before we never see him again. There's just no good news here in terms of his skills, as almost every indicator is in freefall. Following his pre-season trend to a "T," his control and ability to get batters out has gotten simultaneously worse. He's walked as many batters as he’s struck out. Saunders xERA has finally imploded to well over the 5.00 mark and hit rate is not to blame. Going into 2010, Saunders at least had a strong groundball profile. That has evaporated in the first three months, as line-drive and FB rates have risen. Saunders is 1-6 at home with an ERA of 6.75 and behind him is a bullpen that is among the worst in the business. Given a list of all the pitchers in the majors to lay juice with, Joe Saunders would be very near the bottom of that list. Aaron Cook will not dazzle anyone but he keeps the ball down and usually keeps the Rocks in the game. Cook has allowed three runs or less in four of his last five starts and is coming off a sweet, seven-inning, three hit gem against the Brew Crew. Anyway, this is more about playing against Saunders than anything else, as his skills and confidence continue to deteriorate at a high pace. Play: Colorado +1.22 (Risking 2 units).
Detroit +1.11 over ATLANTA
Sometimes, that little trip back to the minors works wonders. After a horrible first eight starts punched his ticket back to Triple-A, Max Scherzer has been lights-out upon his recall at the end of May. Though a small sample size applies, the Scherzer sign says "buy". Just before his demotion, he wasn’t striking out many. He then fanned a cool 14 in his first start back, and has barely slowed down since. The sparkling numbers since 5/30 show the results. But it's not all Ks. His control has remained consistent; hr/9 has been reined back in and a normalized stand % has led this resurgence. Scherzer’s xERA and BPV since 5/30 are numbers to get excited about again. Scherzer won't be able to maintain this pace, but with 4 PQS-dominant scores in his last five starts, his rebirth looks legit. The best news? That inflated 5.67 year-to-date ERA make Scherzer a very undervalued pitcher and thus we get a bigger take-back than we should. Young pitchers are never a sure thing, but Scherzer's trends and history showcase his stuff that points positive for the balance of 2010. Kenshin Kawakami remains winless through nine decisions. His 4.67 xERA is nearly identical to the 4.78 ERA, as his skills remain pedestrian at best. Kawakami is heading to the bullpen as soon as Jair Jurrjens returns and he can’t wait to get there. Play: Detroit +1.11 (Risking 2 units).
Minnesota +1.22 over NY METS
It's bad enough that Johan Santana had to respond this week to a report that he was accused of sexual battery in October 2009. Now, despite an ERA in the low 3.00's, Santana's 2010 performance is not nearly as good as the surface stats suggest. As the saying goes, "Where there's smoke there's fire". Lest we forget, Santana did have elbow surgery last season (bone chips), which was a big red flag entering the 2010 season. Last season's surgery isn't the only red flag surrounding Santana. That ERA (3.31) is still pretty sexy until you look at the xERA hiding behind it (4.69). Santana’s strikeout rate is decreasing while his walks are increasing. In fact, over his last three games he’s walked seven and struck out just five. Two of those three games were against the Indians and Padres. Furthermore, he allowed four runs in all three of those aforementioned games. Now he’ll pitch with less confidence and as mentioned earlier, where there’s smoke there’s fire. Meanwhile, Carl Pavano has been lights out for weeks. He’s coming off a gem against the Phillies and he’s breezing through line-ups. In fact, Pavano has gone at least seven full innings in six straight games and only twice during that stretch has he threw more than 100 pitches. Pavano has pinpoint control as evidenced by his 14 walks issued in 96.1 frames. The Mets are hot and they’re tough to beat these days but Santana’s charmed life is on the verge of a meltdown and chances are good it starts right here. Play: Minnesota +1.22 (Risking 2 units).
KANSAS CITY +1.15 over St. Louis
Blake Hawksworth (45 BPV, -0- PQS) makes his second start of the season in his twenty-third appearance. Hawksworth's earlier start ended in disaster in which he allowed six earned runs in four innings. While Hawksworth has been hurt by an inflated 38% hit rate, the skills here are marginal (poor command and a 1.4 hr/9). He gets the start here because the Cardinals have absolutely nobody else to turn to and the fact that this poor reliever is favored as a starter is ludicrous. Throw in the fact that the Cards offense is stuck in neutral and the Royals are even more appealing. Yeah, Kyle Davies is going through a rough stretch and he’s never going to be anything but a four or five starter but at least he’s a starter. Furthermore, the Royals are still leading the majors with a .280 batting average and while they’re not scoring as much, they’re still getting tons of hits but just not stringing them together. They’re on the verge of an outburst and it could very well occur here. Play: Kansas City +1.15 (Risking 2 units).
PHILADELPHIA –1½ +1.26 over Toronto
The Jays are the “home team” here. Yeah, ok. This is a rare opportunity to play the true home team getting all nine at bats but chances are it won’t matter. The Jays are second last in the majors in team BA, just two lousy points ahead of the Astros. Over its last 20 games, the Jays are dead last with a team BA of .217, 14 points worse than the Mariners and 25 points worse than the Astros. The Jays have also lost four of its last five games and they’ve been shutout in two of its last three. The Jays numbers are even worse against lefties and they’ll face one here in Cole Hamels. Hamels is not pitching good, he’s pitching great. He’s gone nine straight starts without allowing more than three earned runs in any of them. That includes two games against the Red Sox, not to mention games in Minnesota, at New York against the Mets, at Atlanta and three games at home in this very difficult hitter’s park. Hamels has a BAA in June of .183 and overall he’s struck out 85 batters in 86.1 innings. Shaun Marcum is having a good year but he’s on the verge of an implosion. His last two games he threw against San Fran and San Diego and didn’t look sharp but got by. Previously, he allowed 10 hits in both back-to-back games against the Rays. In four June starts his BAA is .300 and after missing all of last year, his arm is beginning to show real signs of wear and tear. He looked exhausted in his last start against the Giants in which he threw 102 pitches in five innings. The Phillies offense has woke up big time with 27 runs in its last three games and that’s big time bad news for Marcum. Play: Philadelphia –1½ +1.26 (Risking 2 units).
Colorado +1.22 over L.A. ANGELS
Joe Saunders has one foot in the grave and it’s not going to be long before we never see him again. There's just no good news here in terms of his skills, as almost every indicator is in freefall. Following his pre-season trend to a "T," his control and ability to get batters out has gotten simultaneously worse. He's walked as many batters as he’s struck out. Saunders xERA has finally imploded to well over the 5.00 mark and hit rate is not to blame. Going into 2010, Saunders at least had a strong groundball profile. That has evaporated in the first three months, as line-drive and FB rates have risen. Saunders is 1-6 at home with an ERA of 6.75 and behind him is a bullpen that is among the worst in the business. Given a list of all the pitchers in the majors to lay juice with, Joe Saunders would be very near the bottom of that list. Aaron Cook will not dazzle anyone but he keeps the ball down and usually keeps the Rocks in the game. Cook has allowed three runs or less in four of his last five starts and is coming off a sweet, seven-inning, three hit gem against the Brew Crew. Anyway, this is more about playing against Saunders than anything else, as his skills and confidence continue to deteriorate at a high pace. Play: Colorado +1.22 (Risking 2 units).
Detroit +1.11 over ATLANTA
Sometimes, that little trip back to the minors works wonders. After a horrible first eight starts punched his ticket back to Triple-A, Max Scherzer has been lights-out upon his recall at the end of May. Though a small sample size applies, the Scherzer sign says "buy". Just before his demotion, he wasn’t striking out many. He then fanned a cool 14 in his first start back, and has barely slowed down since. The sparkling numbers since 5/30 show the results. But it's not all Ks. His control has remained consistent; hr/9 has been reined back in and a normalized stand % has led this resurgence. Scherzer’s xERA and BPV since 5/30 are numbers to get excited about again. Scherzer won't be able to maintain this pace, but with 4 PQS-dominant scores in his last five starts, his rebirth looks legit. The best news? That inflated 5.67 year-to-date ERA make Scherzer a very undervalued pitcher and thus we get a bigger take-back than we should. Young pitchers are never a sure thing, but Scherzer's trends and history showcase his stuff that points positive for the balance of 2010. Kenshin Kawakami remains winless through nine decisions. His 4.67 xERA is nearly identical to the 4.78 ERA, as his skills remain pedestrian at best. Kawakami is heading to the bullpen as soon as Jair Jurrjens returns and he can’t wait to get there. Play: Detroit +1.11 (Risking 2 units).
Minnesota +1.22 over NY METS
It's bad enough that Johan Santana had to respond this week to a report that he was accused of sexual battery in October 2009. Now, despite an ERA in the low 3.00's, Santana's 2010 performance is not nearly as good as the surface stats suggest. As the saying goes, "Where there's smoke there's fire". Lest we forget, Santana did have elbow surgery last season (bone chips), which was a big red flag entering the 2010 season. Last season's surgery isn't the only red flag surrounding Santana. That ERA (3.31) is still pretty sexy until you look at the xERA hiding behind it (4.69). Santana’s strikeout rate is decreasing while his walks are increasing. In fact, over his last three games he’s walked seven and struck out just five. Two of those three games were against the Indians and Padres. Furthermore, he allowed four runs in all three of those aforementioned games. Now he’ll pitch with less confidence and as mentioned earlier, where there’s smoke there’s fire. Meanwhile, Carl Pavano has been lights out for weeks. He’s coming off a gem against the Phillies and he’s breezing through line-ups. In fact, Pavano has gone at least seven full innings in six straight games and only twice during that stretch has he threw more than 100 pitches. Pavano has pinpoint control as evidenced by his 14 walks issued in 96.1 frames. The Mets are hot and they’re tough to beat these days but Santana’s charmed life is on the verge of a meltdown and chances are good it starts right here. Play: Minnesota +1.22 (Risking 2 units).
KANSAS CITY +1.15 over St. Louis
Blake Hawksworth (45 BPV, -0- PQS) makes his second start of the season in his twenty-third appearance. Hawksworth's earlier start ended in disaster in which he allowed six earned runs in four innings. While Hawksworth has been hurt by an inflated 38% hit rate, the skills here are marginal (poor command and a 1.4 hr/9). He gets the start here because the Cardinals have absolutely nobody else to turn to and the fact that this poor reliever is favored as a starter is ludicrous. Throw in the fact that the Cards offense is stuck in neutral and the Royals are even more appealing. Yeah, Kyle Davies is going through a rough stretch and he’s never going to be anything but a four or five starter but at least he’s a starter. Furthermore, the Royals are still leading the majors with a .280 batting average and while they’re not scoring as much, they’re still getting tons of hits but just not stringing them together. They’re on the verge of an outburst and it could very well occur here. Play: Kansas City +1.15 (Risking 2 units).
