Comps
EZWINNERS
Tampa Bay Rays -124
The Florida Marlins have been one of the best interleague teams since interleague games were adopted, but I don't expect that success to continue with this struggling Florida team. The Marlins dropped to 1-16 this month with their 5-1 loss to the Rays last night that I used for a free winner and Florida is in the midst of their second eight game losing streak in a little more than two weeks. The Marlins offense has struggled as they have scored one or no runs in four out of their last five games. Florida's best offensive player has also struggled this season and those struggles continue for Hanley Ramirez who went hitless Friday and is just 1 for 13 in four games since coming off the disabled list. Florida's starting pitcher Ricky Nolasco is also struggling. Nolasco is winless in his last four starts, going 0-2 with a 8.02 ERA in those games and He allowed nine runs in three innings Monday in a 12-9 loss to Arizona. Alex Cobb gets the start for the Rays and Cobb has pitched well recently with the minimal run support, allowing two runs in 12 innings over his last two starts. Look for the rookie to have another solid outing as the Rays give him some run support against the struggling Nolasco. Play on Tampa Bay.
Nick Parsons
Milwaukee Brewers @ Boston Red Sox
PICK: Boston Red Sox
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the home side:
Coming into Friday, Milwaukee is 39-31 this year; 25-9 at home but just 14-22 on the road; Game 1 of the series goes on Friday between Marcum and Lackey.
Randy Wolf (4-4, 3.20 ERA) gets the start on Saturday; Wolf pitched well his last time out, but lost to Ryan Dempster who threw a gem; he threw seven scoreless frames, allowing six hits with seven strikeouts in the no-decision.
Wolf, like his team, has struggled on the road though, going 2-3 with a 3.72 ERA in eight starts.
In the other dugout: Coming into Friday Boston is 41-27 this year; 19-13 at home and 22-14 on the road.
Jon Lester heads to the hill for the home side; Lester allowed one run on two hits over eight innings of work in a 14-1 win over the Jays on Sunday; he finished with eight strikeouts; "I'd say fastball command was pretty good today. Was probably the best changeup I've thrown in a while," Lester said after, "It was just nice to go out there and repeat every inning, repeat on my mechanics, throw the ball downhill. I had good life today, so it was obviously a good thing to keep building off of and take into my next one."
Lester is 9-2 with a 3.73 ERA this season and 3-2 with a 4.83 ERA in five starts in front of the home town crowd.
Bottom line: Consider laying the wood on the superior pitcher!
Matt Fargo
Detroit Tigers vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: Colorado Rockies
Colorado is on a little bit of a role right now and we will ride the Rockies to keep that run going. The Rockies have won three straight games and are 5-3 on this current homestand following a 13-6 win last night in this series opener. After scoring three runs or fewer in nine straight games and 13 of 14 games, Colorado has busted out for 59 runs over its last nine games, averaging 6.6 rpg over that span. The Rockies are hitting only .249 on the season but it includes .270 at home and .314 over their last 10 games. The Tigers meanwhile have been up and down following an 8-1 run as they are 5-5 over their last 10 games including losses in both road games over that stretch. Detroit has scored four runs or fewer seven times over those 10 games and last night's loss coupled with the Indians victory dropped it back into a first place tie with Cleveland in the American League Central. The Tigers have been much better at home than on the road and they are now 6-15 over their last 21 Interleague road games. Ubaldo Jimenez is not having close to the season he had a year ago but things are getting better. He posted a 6.67 ERA through his first six starts but he has settled down and has allowed three earned runs or less in five of his last six outings. He has only one win on the season while Colorado has won only two of his 12 starts including going 1-6 at home. This line is going to be considered high for some but this is a great spot as the Rockies are 15-6 in his last 21 starts after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. The Tigers will send Phil Coke to the hill and he has been a very pleasant surprise in the rotation. He has a 3.69 ERA through 11 starts including a 3.38 ERA in seven road outings. However, like Jimenez, he is not getting wins as he is 1-6 including a 1-4 record on the road with Detroit going 2-5 in those seven road starts. The problem has been run support as he is getting only 3.5 rpg and after last night, it doesn't look good as the Tigers are 1-4 in his last five starts after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. 3* Colorado Rockies
John Ryan
Milwaukee Brewers at Boston Red Sox
Prediction: Boston Red Sox
5* graded play on the Boston Red Sox as they take on the Milwaukee Brewers set to start at 7:10 PM ET. My proprietary simulator and statistical database shows a high probability that Boston will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a 43-5 record for 90% winners since 1997. Play on all favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 starting a pitcher who walked <=1 hitters each of his last 2 outings against opponent with a hot starting pitcher posting an ERA less than 2.50 over his last 5 starts. Moreover, Boston is a solid 25-6 (+17.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season; 27-9 (+14.9 Units) against the money line facing a solid bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better this season. Milwaukee is just 7-21 (-12.0 Units) against the money line in road games facing an excellent fielding team averaging <=0.5 errors per game over the last two seasons. Milwaukee is batting just .234 and scoring 3.5 RPG in 36 road games this season and now they have to face one of the best starters in the AL. Lester is 9-2 and is coming off a strong start pitching eight innings allowing just two hits and one ER walking one batter while striking out eight batters. Take the Red Sox.
Marc Lawrence
Houston Astros at Los Angeles Dodgers
Prediction: Houston Astros
The Astros and Dodgers meet in Game Two of their weekend series at Chavez Ravine when Wandy Rodriguez takes on Rubby De La Rosa at Chavez Ravine. Rodriguez toes the rubber 3-0 with a 0.47 ERA in his last three starts in the month of June. Meanwhile, De La Rosa enters with wins in each of his two starts despite having lasted just five innings in each game. With Rodriguez sporting a 2.56 ERA in his last five road starts this season, look for the Dodgers to go down the tubes here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Houston.