SPORTSWAGERS
MLB
San Diego @ N.Y. METS
N.Y. METS -120 over San Diego
(Risking 2.4 units - To Win: 2.00)
4:10 PM EST. We’re not in the habit of playing favorites because it’s not often that you find value in doing so but if the Giants are -160 (or thereabouts) over the Rockies than the Mets should be -180 over the Padres. We see lots of games at a higher price than this one and that's so wrong because thiis a significant pitching mismatch in the Mets favor and the Padres are dead last in the majors in several key offensive categories. The Padres have lost five in a row and nine of their past 11 games. Over that span they are hitting a pathetic .159 and it’s not just because they play in an extreme pitcher’s park. On the road, San Diego is batting a league low .212. Prior to this series they played three in Philly and scored five times and now they’ll face one of MLB’s most undervalued pitchers in Zack Wheeler. Wheeler cruised through three straight starts before a small road bump against the Giants earlier this week (4 ER in 3.2 IP on 86 pitches). Still, his 4.20 ERA and 1.40 WHIP have huge room for improvement because Wheeler has some of the best skills in the game. Wheeler posts a strong K-rate of 9.2 K’s/9 through 13 starts and a 55% ground ball percentage. He does a great job of keeping balls in the park (0.6 HR/9) and the only reason his ERA is high is because of a low strand rate of 70%. Wheeler has the third best xERA in all of baseball over his last seven starts, which sits at 2.46. Expect a run at double-digit strikeouts and a win against the Padres today.
Jesse Hahn's promotion was as short-lived as expected. Hahn was sent to AAA-El Paso after his June 3rd start against the Pirates in which he was tagged for six hits and four earned runs in 3.2 innings. Hahn gets an emergency start here because Eric Stults was put on the bereavement list. His first start was at Petco and he was hammered. His second start isn’t likely to be much better, as Hahn takes the step from Double-AA San Antonio to the majors and it’s not like he was dominating the Double-AA Texas League. He posted a .252 BAA and pitched just 35 innings over eight starts. Hahn was yanked almost every game after pitching four innings or less, as the (San Antonio) Missions tried to bring him along slowly. His chances of pitching deep into this game are slim and his chance of success are just as slim.
Kansas City @ CHICAGO
Kansas City -1 +115 over CHICAGO
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.30)
2:10 PM EST. After yesterday’s 7-2 victory, Kansas City has not only won five in a row but they’ve won nine of the past 10 games they’ve played at this venue. We mentioned yesterday that the Royals, based on their numbers, should be scoring a lot more runs than they were and they made us look good by hanging up a crooked number in the first inning and going on to an easy win. More of the same is a distinct possibility here against Hector Noesi. This is Noesi's third team in 2014. Noesi went 0-1 with a 6.59 ERA in 21 innings for the Mariners last year. He spread out those 21 innings over five of the six months of the season but the abuse he took at Tacoma (5.83 ERA) indicates that his promotions were not merit-based. This year, Noesi is 2-4 with an ERA of 5.40. He has a unacceptable WHIP of 1.50 and a shaky 36%21%/44% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile. He has poor control, he’s been extremely hittable at this level and he’s put up those awful numbers (both on the surface and under) with an unsustainable 80% strand rate over his last five starts. We've seen worse base skills but Noesi needs some extra fastball juice or a more of a groundball lean to take the next step. We're not optimistic.
Danny Duffy has shown some flashes of the upside he displayed prior to his Tommy John surgery a couple of years ago, including a near no-hitter. While his overall skills do not support his current 3.26 ERA, his raw stuff gives him much more strikeout upside than he is showing. Besides, this one is about backing Duffy. The bet here is based on the hot Royals winning again, at a place they win often, against one of MLB’s worst starters.
Colorado @ SAN FRANCISCO
Colorado +150 over SAN FRANCISCO
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.00)
4:05 PM EST. The Giants are cooling off a bit with four losses in their past five games including the opener of this series last night, 7-4. San Fran is always tough to beat at home, especially in day games but wagering against Ryan Vogelsong cannot be ignored when he’s priced this high. Vogelsong is having a decent year with a 4-3 record to go along with a respectable 3.84 ERA but his skills still say he’s a risky proposition. Vogelsong has a weak 38%/23%/39% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile. His K rate is up but so are his walks, which has led to a below average 1.32 WHIP. Vogelsong significantly outpitched his skills during 2011-12 resurgence but it caught up to him and he was exposed last year. This year’s he’s outpitching his skills again and he’ll be facing a hot-hitting Rockies team that has won three in a row and has scored 35 runs over their last four games. Wagering on Vogelsong is a dart throw.
In his first major-league start five days ago, Christian Bergman didn’t set the world on fire but what he did do was hold the Braves to six hits and three earned runs in six innings. That was at Coors Field and the kid showed he deserves another shot. Bergman is hoping to translate some of his minor league success to the major leagues. He set a Triple-A Colorado Springs franchise record with 24 consecutive scoreless innings and an improbable 0.30 ERA in the month of May. We profiled Bergman in our MLB call-ups section so you can read more about him there. At this price against Vogeslong, Bergman and the Rockies most certainly offer up some nice value.
