MLB Midweek Series - Five Key Takeaways
It is time to again review the MLB Weekday series from Point Blank range, isolating key edges that can put you way ahead of the game in the days ahead.
A’s – And all those catches and throws that were not highlights…
The plan for a couple of weeks had been to save the Oakland defense as a topic heading into this weekend, when the gap between the A’s in the field and the Yankees could be used as a prime example of how under-valued that aspect of the game continues to be in the betting markets. Then Yoenis Cespedes made that brilliant throw to nail Howie Kendrick at home plate on Tuesday night, which went viral across the sports mediaverse, and the timing becomes even more pertinent. Yes, that was a remarkable play, but it is far from being the only one. Just 24 hours later Coco Crisp was reaching above the wall to take a HR away from Josh Hamilton, and Cespedes was at it again, throwing out Albert Pujols at 3B. Already this season Cespedes has thrown out three Angels at the plate. Welcome to the Oakland defense.
The A’s sport the best run differential in the Majors by a wide margin, and the defense has been a big part of that ride. They are #1 in PADE, and consider how much that .266 BABIP has helped to make their pitching staff look good – the league average is .294, and no other team is lower than .276. When the Yankees come to town this weekend, the defensive gap is considerable – they are allowing a .306 BABIP, and are #27 in PADE.
Now for some focus on how much impact the defenses have had on the bottom line. The Yankee pitchers have been striking out more batters (8.6-per-9) than the A’s (7.5-per-9), and allowing fewer BB (2.5-per-9 vs. 2.8), yet sport a 3.95 ERA, vs. the Oakland 2.83. The difference in HR rate of the home ball-parks indeed makes a difference, but it is the defense that tells the tale – when that is removed New York wins the xFIP comparison by 3.51 to 3.72. That xFIP metric tells us that the A’s defense has been worth almost one full run per game.
It is not a 66-game fluke. In 2013 the Oakland defense was #1 in PADE, #2 in BABIP allowed, and had an ERA of 3.56 vs. an xFIP of 4.05. In 2012 it was a #2 in both PADE and BABIP, with the ERA at 3.50 vs. an xFIP of 4.20. The defense had been very good those past two seasons, this time around they have elevated to great.
Some of the keys to the impact are things that are difficult to statistically measure. First is the confidence of the pitching staff to challenge hitters, knowing the quality of the gloves behind them. That is worth a lot. Second will be the lack of aggressiveness by opposing base-runners as the season progresses, having not only seen the highlight reels, but also the base scouting reports that show 20 assists for the OF already. Cespedes has nine of them, more than 13 other MLB teams, including, by the way, those Yankees.
Phillies – And when Ryan Howard sits…
If you are a subscriber to Steamwire (
https://experts.***********/Store/Steamwire/Landing), and here comes the usual refrain – yes, you should be - there was a “Padres-Phillies Marketology” send-out yesterday morning that shows the value of the service, in terms of isolating value situations that you can take advantage of. Philadelphia was sitting Ryan Howard, with John Mayberry playing 1B, and there came all of the San Diego money – to the point at which you could have backed the Phillies at as high as +104 at first pitch, 20 cents from where they were sitting before the lineups were announced.
The Steamwire send noted the market over-reaction with a simple comparison – Howard was at .238/.308/.414 for the season, and .206/.268/.413 vs. left-handers, while Mayberry’s season was .242/.338/.500, and the lefty split .273/.385/.545. And no, this is not being written to showcase Mayberry on his big Thursday. Instead, it is about how little Howard actually brings to the table these days, something many market segments still do not fully appreciate.
The decline has been a steady one, after that 2005-11 cycle in which he entered each season as an MVP candidate. But that current slash line does not lie. His current K% is 30.8, well above his career 28.1 (only Mark Reynolds, Junior Lake and Danny Espinosa have been worse), while his BB% of 9.0 is far below the career 11.6. Pitchers are not afraid to throw him strikes anymore, especially with only 16.9 percent of his fly-balls leaving the yard, compared to a career 27.1. And this is happening at a position in which a team needs production if they are going to compete – the MLB average at 1B is .254/.329/.437. If we use WAR as the guideline, of the 34 players at the position that have at least 150 PA’s, Howard rates #27. How bad is that? He slots right below Brayan Pena and Ike Davis, and right above Justin Smoak and Yonder Alonso. Yet the Phillies continue to send him out there almost every day.
As for Mayberry, not only has he considerably out-hit Howard vs. left-handers this season (now at .324/.419/.703 after Thursday’s outburst), but in 2013 it was .240/.296/.460 to Howard’s .173/.218/.321, and in 2012 it was .271/.317/.494 compared to .173/.226/.378. Mayberry may only have 41 career starts at 1B, but given that Howard is below average defensively it is not likely that anything would be lost. The bottom line is that Howard should almost never start against a left-hander at this stage, and when he does sit, the Phillies may actually become a better team.
Orioles – Chris Tillman has been worse than you think
Off of back-to-back seasons of 9-3/2.93 and 16-7/3.71, Tillman appeared to be on his way as a solid MLB starter. As such his 5-3/4.91 does not set off major alarms just yet, especially after seemingly suffering a “bad luck” loss to the Red Sox in his last outing, a 1-0 in which he contributed six decent IP. But there may be something to see here.
You do not have to go far to find the warning signs – Tillman’s K’s-per-9 are down from 7.8 to 6.8 over 2013, while his BB-per-9 are up from 3.0 to 4.1. A wrong-direction change of more than one full outcome per-9 in the each of those categories is more than a warning sign; it is a red flag. To help create the proper perspective let’s look at a more advanced metric, of the 104 pitchers with at least 60 IP, his xFIP of 4.75 checks in at #101 (and one of the three below him, Chris Young, continues to be someone that you need to disregard in that particular category).
Tillman’s W/L mark is meaningless – twice this season he left after one inning, having allowed five runs or more, and was not tagged with a defeat, and he actually got a “W” in Toronto in a game that he allowed seven ER over 5 2/3 IP, including three HR’s. The fact that he held Boston to a single run in his last outing also should carry little meaning – 10 of the 27 batters that he faced reached via a hit or a BB, and the run he allowed was the only one the Red Sox scored in that entire series, getting shutout by Bud Norris, Wei-Yin Chen and the Baltimore bullpen. Tillman dealt to a 1.43 WHIP in that game; Boston managed only a 0.52 over the other 21 innings of that set.
There may have been a turning point that we can look back to. Tillman actually opened a solid 2-1/1.71 through four starts, but that fourth game was a laborious 122 pitches over just five frames in Fenway. He lost his way that day and it has not come back – in 10 starts since then it has been an ugly 6.57 ERA, with a 1.74 WHIP. During that span no full-time starter in the Majors has been worse, but the fact that he went 3-2 through those games, and the Orioles were 6-4, has kept it well under the market radar.
Rays – Could there be a “Buy Time” for Jake Odorizzi?
It is no longer a secret that 2014 is going to be a “lost season” in Tampa Bay, and many of the issues facing the Rays have been dealt with on this page, far ahead of the market curve. But now the prices are catching down to them, which could actually lead to some play-on situations over the course of the summer, particularly when Odorizzi takes the mound.
If a pitcher is sitting at 2-7/4.85, and the team behind him has the worst record in the Majors, there are not going to be many takers. But there are a couple of items that might help to cash tickets at what should be more than fair value. First is the belief that a Joe Maddon team is going to compete to the end of the schedule, regardless of their place in the standings. Second is that Odorizzi offers much more than his bottom line indicates, and is throwing the kind of pitches you can win with at this level.
First note that Odorizzi turned in seasons of 11-3/2.93 and 9-6/3.33 with two different AAA teams, Omaha (Royals) and Durham (Rays), and 231 2/3 IP at that level is a nice development tool for someone that is only 24. As for this season, that 2-7/4.85 ERA is not a good indicator. Of the 105 pitchers with at least 60 IP, his 3.50 xFIP rates #39, between #38 Henderson Alvarez and #40 James Shields. Those two are a combined 10-6/3.39. Get the picture?
How has it gone so wrong? Odorizzi checks in at #3 in K’s-per-9, behind only Stephen Strasburg and Yu Darvish, but when the ball has been put into play he has not had much fortune – a .350 BABIP that is far above the league norm of .294, with only four pitchers having a higher clip. When runners have reached base they have also come around too often – a 68.9 LOB% that rates #89, and can also regress towards league average over time. While the Tampa offense is not going to be anything special, over the course of the season Odorizzi should get more than the 3.2 of run support he has had so far (there have been three starts in which he allowed one run or none and did not get a win).
Cubs – How bad has Edwin Jackson really been?
There have been a couple of takes here in recent weeks using DBF (Difficulty of Batters Faced) as a metric for finding value on or against starting pitchers, now that there are enough box scores for that chart to matter. Jackson provides us with a prime example of how that factor can be used.
Jackson sits at 82-95/4.48 over 1,518 2/3 MLB innings, a traveling-circus tour in which he has had starts while wearing eight different uniforms. He has shown just enough flashes for teams to continue to give him opportunities, and then enough inconsistency for those tryouts to not last very long (of his 248 starts, 63 with Tampa Bay was a high). He finally landed with the Cubs LY, sporting a dismal 8-18/4.98, and so far this season it has been more of the same, a 4-6/4.70. But this time around it comes with a catch – he has actually been even worse than that.
Of the 105 pitchers that have worked at least 60 IP, Jackson’s DBF is dead last. He has faced hitters that have generated a .232/.292/.355 slash line, but has allowed them to produce at a .273/.348/.416. Let’s use some perspective to better illustrate what that means.
Only San Diego has a lower batting average than .232. The Padres are also the only team with an OBP of less than .292. And only the Padres and Mets have a lower SLG than .356. Jackson’s competition has been that weak. If we compare to individual batters, of the 168 qualifiers he has faced the equivalent of #142 for AVG (Dustin Ackley at .234), #145 in OBP (Mark Reynolds at .292), and #137 in SLG (Will Myers at .354).
Jackson is once again likely to draw some interest from contenders looking for an arm – it has happened before. Perhaps this time it shouldn’t.
