SPORTS WAGERS
Pittsburgh +123 over CHICAGO
The Pirates are ahead of the Cubbies in the standings and they also have a better record on the road (14-12) than they do ay home (9-14). The Cubbies have been awful at home with an 11-15 mark and they seem to commit mistake after mistake at Wrigley. Then we have Randy Wells starting in place of the injured Matt Garza. Wells has been sidelined since the first week of the season with a strained forearm. He allowed six earned runs over four innings in his last rehab start and last season he didn’t come close to repeating the rookie buzz he created the previous year. All that said, he's really just not all that skilled and who knows if he’s even ready. Paul Maholm is not a 1-7 pitcher. He has an outstanding groundball/flyball profile of 51%/29% and an ERA of 3.65. That’s just unfair and while he isn’t going to dazzle, what he is going to do is throw strikes, keep the ball down and give the Bucs a chance to win. The Pirates thrive at Wrigley and against the Cubbies for some strange reason and in fact, Pittsburgh has won six of their last seven series against the Cubs including the first series this year and game one of this series yesterday. No doubt they can win again here. Play: Pittsburgh +123 (Risking 2 units).
Baltimore +130 over OAKLAND
Tyson Ross was removed from his Thursday afternoon outing vs. Minnesota (9 days ago) after seven pitches with what has been reported as an oblique strain, something which could put him on the DL for a significant period of time. The A’s were forced to make a move and they decided to go with Josh Outman. Outman has not quite returned to form after '09 Tommy John surgery, as suggested by a 4.78 ERA and a 30/27 K/BB in 38 IP in Sacramento. He did start last week at Anaheim and the pitching line looks good but don’t buy into it. He struck out just two batters, he walked three and his groundball/fly-ball rate was an ugly 32%/63%. Throw in a strand rate of 88% and it’s just a matter of time before those types of numbers cause him some big time grief. The A’s also struggle offensively with a combined BA of .239 and their 187 runs scored rank them third worst in the AL ahead of only the Twins and Mariners. The Orioles had won five straight before losing here last night. Brad Bergeson’s 59% strand rate in one of the lowest in the majors. As that normalizes his ERA will go down. Having said that, Bergeson is definitely a risk because his skill set is average at best. However, he’s a better option taking back a tag than Outman is laying one. The same can be said about the O’s offense compared with the A’s and thus the overlay is created. Play: Baltimore +130 (Risking 2 units).
Matt Hamill +225 over Quinton Jackson
Quinton “Rampage” Jackson is one of the biggest names in the sport and because of that he attracts a ton of public money. In actuality he should be no more than a -150 favorite but he has been hammered as high as 3-1 on some sites. Taking back over 2-1 on Matt Hamill is almost too good to be true. Not only does he sport all of the value but in truth this is a very winnable fight for him. He has the advantage on the ground with an illustrious wrestling background and he is also dangerous on his feet. His striking might not sport the power of Jackson but it is definitely underrated. His only official losses have come to Rich Franklin and Michael Bisping, with the latter of the two coming by way of a highly questionable judging decision. Another key to this bout is the question mark that seems to follow “Rampage” Jackson around. Some reports have suggested that he is disinterested in this fight and is more concerned with other ventures, namely his Hollywood career. Either way you would have to be borderline insane to lay anything close to 3-1 on him winning this fight. He might come out on top but the value on Matt “The Hammer” Hamill is too much to pass up on, as he looms large as a very live dog in the main event. Play: Matt Hamill +225 (Risking 2 units).
Roy Nelson +114 over Frank Mir
Like the aforementioned contest this is another spot where it behooves you to bet against a “name” in the sport. Frank Mir will take a ton of public support and we will be more than happy to take the value on Roy “Big Country” Nelson. He knocked out Brendan Schaub to win TUF 10 and followed it up with another devastating knockout of Stefan Struve. In his most recent effort he showed unbelievable heart and determination, enduring a ton of punishment while inflicting some of his own, in a unanimous decision loss to Junior dos Santos. Frank Mir on the other hand has lost two of his last four but only looked good against a perennially overrated Cheick Kongo. He was brutalized by both Brock Lesnar and Shane Carwin but was able to knockout Mirko “Cro-Cop” Filipovic with a knee in the 3rd round. The issue with that victory is that it came in one of the worst main events you will ever see in the UFC and it came against a guy who is well past his prime. Roy Nelson is hungry and we’re not talking about cheeseburgers, he is hungry for a title shot and beating a former UFC heavy-weight champ would be a step in the right direction. Mir looked uninspired against both Carwin and Filopovic and it is pretty clear that this fight means a lot more to Nelson. It should be noted that they met once before in a Grappling Tournament back in 2003 where Nelson was victorious. A lot of time has passed since then but it appears that Mir might be on a downward swing in this career, while Nelson is ready for the next level. Nelson has the striking ability to knockout Mir and despite his physical appearance he could also go the distance to score a win by decision. This is one of those instances where the wrong guy might be favored. Play: Roy Nelson +114 (Risking 2 units).
Stefan Struve +122 over Travis Browne
Stefan Struve enters this bout the underdog despite some very impressive UFC credentials. He is 5-2 in the octagon and sports an overall MMA record of 21-4 at just 23 years of age. He appeared to be a submission specialist with 14 of his first 18 victories coming that way but he scored victories by TKO/KO in his latest two outings. His fight two back was unbelievable and is widely considered to be one of the greatest comebacks in the history of the sport. He has tremendous heart and seems to be able to endure an equal amount of abuse. His only two losses in the UFC came against our previous play Roy Nelson and top contender Junior dos Santos. Travis Browne has never been beaten with a professional record of 10-0-1 but the list of fighters he has beaten does not instill utmost confidence. With the exception of Abe Wagner, none of the nine guys he beat prior to entering the UFC even sniffed the octagon. His only victory in the UFC came against James McSweeney at TUF 11 but should that be considered an accomplishment? McSweeney has lost six of his last seven fights and even lost two consecutive fights in lesser promotions since being released by the UFC. Even after being on the right side of a point deduction Browne was unable to beat the always-overrated Cheick Kongo, as their fight ending in a draw at UFC 120. On credentials it is hard to imagine Struve being the underdog in this fight. His chances skyrocket if he takes this fight to the ground but he might want to prove he can stand and bang with Browne, which might not be the best idea. Either way, the value on a proven winner in the UFC on Struve is just too much to pass up. Play: Stefan Struve +122 (Risking 2 units).
Pittsburgh +123 over CHICAGO
The Pirates are ahead of the Cubbies in the standings and they also have a better record on the road (14-12) than they do ay home (9-14). The Cubbies have been awful at home with an 11-15 mark and they seem to commit mistake after mistake at Wrigley. Then we have Randy Wells starting in place of the injured Matt Garza. Wells has been sidelined since the first week of the season with a strained forearm. He allowed six earned runs over four innings in his last rehab start and last season he didn’t come close to repeating the rookie buzz he created the previous year. All that said, he's really just not all that skilled and who knows if he’s even ready. Paul Maholm is not a 1-7 pitcher. He has an outstanding groundball/flyball profile of 51%/29% and an ERA of 3.65. That’s just unfair and while he isn’t going to dazzle, what he is going to do is throw strikes, keep the ball down and give the Bucs a chance to win. The Pirates thrive at Wrigley and against the Cubbies for some strange reason and in fact, Pittsburgh has won six of their last seven series against the Cubs including the first series this year and game one of this series yesterday. No doubt they can win again here. Play: Pittsburgh +123 (Risking 2 units).
Baltimore +130 over OAKLAND
Tyson Ross was removed from his Thursday afternoon outing vs. Minnesota (9 days ago) after seven pitches with what has been reported as an oblique strain, something which could put him on the DL for a significant period of time. The A’s were forced to make a move and they decided to go with Josh Outman. Outman has not quite returned to form after '09 Tommy John surgery, as suggested by a 4.78 ERA and a 30/27 K/BB in 38 IP in Sacramento. He did start last week at Anaheim and the pitching line looks good but don’t buy into it. He struck out just two batters, he walked three and his groundball/fly-ball rate was an ugly 32%/63%. Throw in a strand rate of 88% and it’s just a matter of time before those types of numbers cause him some big time grief. The A’s also struggle offensively with a combined BA of .239 and their 187 runs scored rank them third worst in the AL ahead of only the Twins and Mariners. The Orioles had won five straight before losing here last night. Brad Bergeson’s 59% strand rate in one of the lowest in the majors. As that normalizes his ERA will go down. Having said that, Bergeson is definitely a risk because his skill set is average at best. However, he’s a better option taking back a tag than Outman is laying one. The same can be said about the O’s offense compared with the A’s and thus the overlay is created. Play: Baltimore +130 (Risking 2 units).
Matt Hamill +225 over Quinton Jackson
Quinton “Rampage” Jackson is one of the biggest names in the sport and because of that he attracts a ton of public money. In actuality he should be no more than a -150 favorite but he has been hammered as high as 3-1 on some sites. Taking back over 2-1 on Matt Hamill is almost too good to be true. Not only does he sport all of the value but in truth this is a very winnable fight for him. He has the advantage on the ground with an illustrious wrestling background and he is also dangerous on his feet. His striking might not sport the power of Jackson but it is definitely underrated. His only official losses have come to Rich Franklin and Michael Bisping, with the latter of the two coming by way of a highly questionable judging decision. Another key to this bout is the question mark that seems to follow “Rampage” Jackson around. Some reports have suggested that he is disinterested in this fight and is more concerned with other ventures, namely his Hollywood career. Either way you would have to be borderline insane to lay anything close to 3-1 on him winning this fight. He might come out on top but the value on Matt “The Hammer” Hamill is too much to pass up on, as he looms large as a very live dog in the main event. Play: Matt Hamill +225 (Risking 2 units).
Roy Nelson +114 over Frank Mir
Like the aforementioned contest this is another spot where it behooves you to bet against a “name” in the sport. Frank Mir will take a ton of public support and we will be more than happy to take the value on Roy “Big Country” Nelson. He knocked out Brendan Schaub to win TUF 10 and followed it up with another devastating knockout of Stefan Struve. In his most recent effort he showed unbelievable heart and determination, enduring a ton of punishment while inflicting some of his own, in a unanimous decision loss to Junior dos Santos. Frank Mir on the other hand has lost two of his last four but only looked good against a perennially overrated Cheick Kongo. He was brutalized by both Brock Lesnar and Shane Carwin but was able to knockout Mirko “Cro-Cop” Filipovic with a knee in the 3rd round. The issue with that victory is that it came in one of the worst main events you will ever see in the UFC and it came against a guy who is well past his prime. Roy Nelson is hungry and we’re not talking about cheeseburgers, he is hungry for a title shot and beating a former UFC heavy-weight champ would be a step in the right direction. Mir looked uninspired against both Carwin and Filopovic and it is pretty clear that this fight means a lot more to Nelson. It should be noted that they met once before in a Grappling Tournament back in 2003 where Nelson was victorious. A lot of time has passed since then but it appears that Mir might be on a downward swing in this career, while Nelson is ready for the next level. Nelson has the striking ability to knockout Mir and despite his physical appearance he could also go the distance to score a win by decision. This is one of those instances where the wrong guy might be favored. Play: Roy Nelson +114 (Risking 2 units).
Stefan Struve +122 over Travis Browne
Stefan Struve enters this bout the underdog despite some very impressive UFC credentials. He is 5-2 in the octagon and sports an overall MMA record of 21-4 at just 23 years of age. He appeared to be a submission specialist with 14 of his first 18 victories coming that way but he scored victories by TKO/KO in his latest two outings. His fight two back was unbelievable and is widely considered to be one of the greatest comebacks in the history of the sport. He has tremendous heart and seems to be able to endure an equal amount of abuse. His only two losses in the UFC came against our previous play Roy Nelson and top contender Junior dos Santos. Travis Browne has never been beaten with a professional record of 10-0-1 but the list of fighters he has beaten does not instill utmost confidence. With the exception of Abe Wagner, none of the nine guys he beat prior to entering the UFC even sniffed the octagon. His only victory in the UFC came against James McSweeney at TUF 11 but should that be considered an accomplishment? McSweeney has lost six of his last seven fights and even lost two consecutive fights in lesser promotions since being released by the UFC. Even after being on the right side of a point deduction Browne was unable to beat the always-overrated Cheick Kongo, as their fight ending in a draw at UFC 120. On credentials it is hard to imagine Struve being the underdog in this fight. His chances skyrocket if he takes this fight to the ground but he might want to prove he can stand and bang with Browne, which might not be the best idea. Either way, the value on a proven winner in the UFC on Struve is just too much to pass up. Play: Stefan Struve +122 (Risking 2 units).
