RIVER CITY SHARPS
Cardinals manager Mike Matheny has recently called his team’s toughness into question and the Cardinals responded Friday night with a 5-2 win over the Braves. Today, they try and make it two in a row over Atlanta as the Cards send Shelby Miller (5-2, 3.22 ERA) to the mound to oppose the Braves Aaron Harang (4-3, 2.98 ERA) Miller had a pretty rough start to the season but has been really good for the Cards over his last four starts, posting a 2.86 ERA in those starts. He’s also gotten some really good run production as the Cardinals have scored 19 runs in Miller’s last three starts. Annother interesting trend here today is that the Cards are 9-1 in Miller’s last 10 home starts as a favorite. Last night’s loss dropped Atlanta to 1-3 vs. the Cardinals this season and we think their struggles continue this afternoon. The Sharps say…
3 UNITS – ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (-119)
Cardinals manager Mike Matheny has recently called his team’s toughness into question and the Cardinals responded Friday night with a 5-2 win over the Braves. Today, they try and make it two in a row over Atlanta as the Cards send Shelby Miller (5-2, 3.22 ERA) to the mound to oppose the Braves Aaron Harang (4-3, 2.98 ERA) Miller had a pretty rough start to the season but has been really good for the Cards over his last four starts, posting a 2.86 ERA in those starts. He’s also gotten some really good run production as the Cardinals have scored 19 runs in Miller’s last three starts. Annother interesting trend here today is that the Cards are 9-1 in Miller’s last 10 home starts as a favorite. Last night’s loss dropped Atlanta to 1-3 vs. the Cardinals this season and we think their struggles continue this afternoon. The Sharps say…
3 UNITS – ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (-119)
RIVER CITY SHARPS
Cardinals manager Mike Matheny has recently called his team’s toughness into question and the Cardinals responded Friday night with a 5-2 win over the Braves. Today, they try and make it two in a row over Atlanta as the Cards send Shelby Miller (5-2, 3.22 ERA) to the mound to oppose the Braves Aaron Harang (4-3, 2.98 ERA) Miller had a pretty rough start to the season but has been really good for the Cards over his last four starts, posting a 2.86 ERA in those starts. He’s also gotten some really good run production as the Cardinals have scored 19 runs in Miller’s last three starts. Annother interesting trend here today is that the Cards are 9-1 in Miller’s last 10 home starts as a favorite. Last night’s loss dropped Atlanta to 1-3 vs. the Cardinals this season and we think their struggles continue this afternoon. The Sharps say…
3 UNITS – ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (-119)
Cardinals manager Mike Matheny has recently called his team’s toughness into question and the Cardinals responded Friday night with a 5-2 win over the Braves. Today, they try and make it two in a row over Atlanta as the Cards send Shelby Miller (5-2, 3.22 ERA) to the mound to oppose the Braves Aaron Harang (4-3, 2.98 ERA) Miller had a pretty rough start to the season but has been really good for the Cards over his last four starts, posting a 2.86 ERA in those starts. He’s also gotten some really good run production as the Cardinals have scored 19 runs in Miller’s last three starts. Annother interesting trend here today is that the Cards are 9-1 in Miller’s last 10 home starts as a favorite. Last night’s loss dropped Atlanta to 1-3 vs. the Cardinals this season and we think their struggles continue this afternoon. The Sharps say…
3 UNITS – ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (-119)
Rangers-Canadiens matchup trending towards under
By ANDREW CALEY
The Montreal Canadiens host the New York Rangers in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals Saturday afternoon and thanks to two superb goaltenders the under has been a strong play in the matchup.
The under is 7-0-2 in the last nine meetings between the two teams and is 6-0-2 in the last eight meetings at the Bell Centre in Montreal.
The Rangers Henrik Lundquvist has had a slightly better postseason than the Habs Carey Price, posting 1.99 goals against average and a .939 save percentage compared to Price's 2.15 gga and .926 save percentage, but both net minders have been spectacular.
By ANDREW CALEY
The Montreal Canadiens host the New York Rangers in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals Saturday afternoon and thanks to two superb goaltenders the under has been a strong play in the matchup.
The under is 7-0-2 in the last nine meetings between the two teams and is 6-0-2 in the last eight meetings at the Bell Centre in Montreal.
The Rangers Henrik Lundquvist has had a slightly better postseason than the Habs Carey Price, posting 1.99 goals against average and a .939 save percentage compared to Price's 2.15 gga and .926 save percentage, but both net minders have been spectacular.
Diamond Dog Sports
Sides 43-38-0
+918
#951: Braves: +110 (1.5*)
Listed Pitchers: Harang / Miller
#954: Cubs: +110 (.5*)
Listed Pitchers: Garza / Jackson
Totals 31-43-4
-2,589
#951/952: Under Cardinals: 7.0 (+100) (2.5*)
Listed Pitchers: Harang / Miller
#971/972: Over Royals: 7.5 (-105) (.5*)
Listed Pitchers: Norris / Duffy
Sides 43-38-0
+918
#951: Braves: +110 (1.5*)
Listed Pitchers: Harang / Miller
#954: Cubs: +110 (.5*)
Listed Pitchers: Garza / Jackson
Totals 31-43-4
-2,589
#951/952: Under Cardinals: 7.0 (+100) (2.5*)
Listed Pitchers: Harang / Miller
#971/972: Over Royals: 7.5 (-105) (.5*)
Listed Pitchers: Norris / Duffy
JEFF HOCHMAN
4* KC Royals -125 over Baltimore
Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals (MLB) - 7:10 PM EDT
Premium Pick
Play: 4* KC Royals -125 (Norris/Duffy)
Play Title: Jeff's 4* MLB Grand Slam play & Preakness Stakes
Preskness Stakes (G1) Race #11
3 units #8 Social Inclusion (W+P+S) ML: 5/1
Working in Social Inclusion’s favor is that he earned a 110 Beyer Speed Figure during that record-setting performance.
California Chrome, whose top Beyer is 108, posted a winning time of 2:03.66 in the Derby, the slowest winning mark on a
Derby track labeled fast since 1974. Social Inclusion has a lot of talent and should be ready for a big effort at a nice price.
4* KC Royals -125 over Baltimore
Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals (MLB) - 7:10 PM EDT
Premium Pick
Play: 4* KC Royals -125 (Norris/Duffy)
Play Title: Jeff's 4* MLB Grand Slam play & Preakness Stakes
Preskness Stakes (G1) Race #11
3 units #8 Social Inclusion (W+P+S) ML: 5/1
Working in Social Inclusion’s favor is that he earned a 110 Beyer Speed Figure during that record-setting performance.
California Chrome, whose top Beyer is 108, posted a winning time of 2:03.66 in the Derby, the slowest winning mark on a
Derby track labeled fast since 1974. Social Inclusion has a lot of talent and should be ready for a big effort at a nice price.
Dave Essler | MLB Money Line
double-dime bet – 959 SDP (+110) vs 960 COL
Analysis: Why is there a .30-.40 line move in this game? Makes no sense, or does it. With the ineptness of the Padres against RHP this season, you’d not expect this, especially with Lyles being more of a groundball pitcher. But, Lyles has had two straight games over 100+ pitches. He did that a fair bit early last season, and only one time late and the second time he was simply lit up at home by the Reds. Perhaps at 23 the kid just can’t do that yet. And last season, at home, he was simply horrible, with a 6.60 ERA and a .297 BAA. I get that that was then and this is now, but there is no way he has turned into Sandy Koufax in the off-season. The current Padres roster has 22 hits in 57 at-bats (.386) against him, so something’s got to give. Erlins’ got a WHIP of 1.24 over the course of the season, which is simply quite good. The only game he was really torched was at Washington, but he too has thrown a lot of pitches, which is why I also lean to the over. If the lineups are stupid, I’ll probably add that, but in the end it’s the Padres bullpen that makes the difference in this game, IMO.
*I suppose if I could still get 7 (we can) I’d have to take the over in the Cubs game. Cannot fathom, even with marginal weather, that it’s a pitchers’ duel.
*I STILL can’t bring myself to take Atlanta, but sooner or later they’re going to go off on someone and they do have the better bullpen.
*I can’t fathom the Mets beating Gio, either. BUT, the total coming down is a bit concerning. We know the Nats don’t fare as well against RHP, but it’s Bartolo, who we’ve made a living fading. Have to think the Nationals win this, somehow.
*I really want to take the over (at 7 perhaps) in the Phillies game. Neither team hitting a lick lately, but neither starter get anyone out, and both SP’s can hit a little.
*Anderson has had one good game for the D-Backs. How do you fade Kershaw, who’s also like another stick in the order. I’d have to lean under, at least F5 because the Dodgers haven’t seen Anderson, and PERHAPS the D-Backs RL.
*Lots of early love for Lincecum, but I can’t fade Koehler, either. I’d love to find a way to take the under here, if for no other reason the Giants pen at home is that much better. Perhaps Fish RL with low total and reasonably priced.
*Some early money on Houston, and I do like Cosart at home (he’s from nearby League City) but when Houston stops hitting, they stop hitting. If you made me, Houston and/or over.
*Tough to fade the A’s, too, especially w/Kazmir pitching, and the Indians simply suck against LHP. Tomlin had a couple of good outings, but sooner or later………lean under.
Hard to imagine Boston losing two straight at home, but the Tigers are finding ways to win. If Porcello finds a way to keep the ball down, this game stays under, IMO.
*Again, sooner or later the Royals will score, but staying far away for the time being. If you made me, I would indeed take them. Duffy has been decent, and that’s all there is to that.
If the Twins had seen Elias at all, I’d take them, and still might. Seattle one of the better hitting teams on the road, so lean over there.
*As always, we’d have to fade Texas against a LHP, inasmuch as Buerhle always kills me and Ross has this season as well.
*I do not think Phelps should be -135 to the Pirates w/all their LHH’s in and a DH as well.
double-dime bet – 959 SDP (+110) vs 960 COL
Analysis: Why is there a .30-.40 line move in this game? Makes no sense, or does it. With the ineptness of the Padres against RHP this season, you’d not expect this, especially with Lyles being more of a groundball pitcher. But, Lyles has had two straight games over 100+ pitches. He did that a fair bit early last season, and only one time late and the second time he was simply lit up at home by the Reds. Perhaps at 23 the kid just can’t do that yet. And last season, at home, he was simply horrible, with a 6.60 ERA and a .297 BAA. I get that that was then and this is now, but there is no way he has turned into Sandy Koufax in the off-season. The current Padres roster has 22 hits in 57 at-bats (.386) against him, so something’s got to give. Erlins’ got a WHIP of 1.24 over the course of the season, which is simply quite good. The only game he was really torched was at Washington, but he too has thrown a lot of pitches, which is why I also lean to the over. If the lineups are stupid, I’ll probably add that, but in the end it’s the Padres bullpen that makes the difference in this game, IMO.
*I suppose if I could still get 7 (we can) I’d have to take the over in the Cubs game. Cannot fathom, even with marginal weather, that it’s a pitchers’ duel.
*I STILL can’t bring myself to take Atlanta, but sooner or later they’re going to go off on someone and they do have the better bullpen.
*I can’t fathom the Mets beating Gio, either. BUT, the total coming down is a bit concerning. We know the Nats don’t fare as well against RHP, but it’s Bartolo, who we’ve made a living fading. Have to think the Nationals win this, somehow.
*I really want to take the over (at 7 perhaps) in the Phillies game. Neither team hitting a lick lately, but neither starter get anyone out, and both SP’s can hit a little.
*Anderson has had one good game for the D-Backs. How do you fade Kershaw, who’s also like another stick in the order. I’d have to lean under, at least F5 because the Dodgers haven’t seen Anderson, and PERHAPS the D-Backs RL.
*Lots of early love for Lincecum, but I can’t fade Koehler, either. I’d love to find a way to take the under here, if for no other reason the Giants pen at home is that much better. Perhaps Fish RL with low total and reasonably priced.
*Some early money on Houston, and I do like Cosart at home (he’s from nearby League City) but when Houston stops hitting, they stop hitting. If you made me, Houston and/or over.
*Tough to fade the A’s, too, especially w/Kazmir pitching, and the Indians simply suck against LHP. Tomlin had a couple of good outings, but sooner or later………lean under.
Hard to imagine Boston losing two straight at home, but the Tigers are finding ways to win. If Porcello finds a way to keep the ball down, this game stays under, IMO.
*Again, sooner or later the Royals will score, but staying far away for the time being. If you made me, I would indeed take them. Duffy has been decent, and that’s all there is to that.
If the Twins had seen Elias at all, I’d take them, and still might. Seattle one of the better hitting teams on the road, so lean over there.
*As always, we’d have to fade Texas against a LHP, inasmuch as Buerhle always kills me and Ross has this season as well.
*I do not think Phelps should be -135 to the Pirates w/all their LHH’s in and a DH as well.
HARRY BONDI Bonus Play
MLB
HOUSTON (-115) over Chicago White Sox
4:10 p.m. ET
You won’t find us on Houston much this season, particularly as a favorite, but we will back the Astros today in a play that is as much against White Sox starter Hector Noesi as it is on Houston. Noesi should not be in the major leagues. He has already been released by two teams this year and sports a 0-3 record with a 7.25 ERA for Chicago. Noesi did have a good outing in his last start but it was the first quality start he has had in the big leagues since June 24 of 2012! This afternoon’s Astros starter Jarred Cosart has pitched well this season with the exception of one disastrous outing at Oakland. Take Houston.
MLB
HOUSTON (-115) over Chicago White Sox
4:10 p.m. ET
You won’t find us on Houston much this season, particularly as a favorite, but we will back the Astros today in a play that is as much against White Sox starter Hector Noesi as it is on Houston. Noesi should not be in the major leagues. He has already been released by two teams this year and sports a 0-3 record with a 7.25 ERA for Chicago. Noesi did have a good outing in his last start but it was the first quality start he has had in the big leagues since June 24 of 2012! This afternoon’s Astros starter Jarred Cosart has pitched well this season with the exception of one disastrous outing at Oakland. Take Houston.
JOE GAVAZZI
Tampa Bay (Ramos) at LA Angels (Wilson) (-1 ½ runs, +155) 9:05 ET
10* LA Angels (-1 ½ runs, +155)
The Rays bounce back for a 3-0 victory last night against LAA. Nonetheless, TBay is just 4-7 of late while LAA is on a 6-2 surge. Ramos is a fill in starter who got ripped in his last outing. In a 12-5 loss to Seattle, Ramos allowed 9 runs on 11 hits. In 5 relief appearances against LAA, Ramos has a 10.13 ERA. Don’t expect much help from a bullpen which has a 4.44 ERA. Far prefer Wilson whose solid 3.69 ERA in 8 starts is complimented by a 54/19 KBB. Run line players take note: 17 of 22 LAA victories have come by 2 or more runs including all 4 wins by Wilson. For Tampa Bay, 11/12 road losses have come by 2 or more runs.
Tampa Bay (Ramos) at LA Angels (Wilson) (-1 ½ runs, +155) 9:05 ET
10* LA Angels (-1 ½ runs, +155)
The Rays bounce back for a 3-0 victory last night against LAA. Nonetheless, TBay is just 4-7 of late while LAA is on a 6-2 surge. Ramos is a fill in starter who got ripped in his last outing. In a 12-5 loss to Seattle, Ramos allowed 9 runs on 11 hits. In 5 relief appearances against LAA, Ramos has a 10.13 ERA. Don’t expect much help from a bullpen which has a 4.44 ERA. Far prefer Wilson whose solid 3.69 ERA in 8 starts is complimented by a 54/19 KBB. Run line players take note: 17 of 22 LAA victories have come by 2 or more runs including all 4 wins by Wilson. For Tampa Bay, 11/12 road losses have come by 2 or more runs.
