BeatYourBookie
SATURDAY
MLB BASEBALL
10* Play Chicago White Sox +115 over Houston (MLB TOP PLAY)
Houston is 30-74 in day games the last three seasons
Houston is 32-71 in home games the last two seasons
Houston is 20-38 when playing on a Saturday the last three seasons
10* Play Seattle +105 over Minnesota (MLB TOP PLAY)
Minnesota is 30-44 vs. AL West Division Opponents the last three seasons
Minnesota is 56-77 at home when the line posted is between +125 to -125
Minnesota is 44-57 vs. left-handed starting pitchers the last three seasons
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5* Play Toronto +100 over Texas (MLB EXTRA PLAY)
5* Play Cincinnati +120 over Philadelphia (MLB EXTRA PLAY)
SATURDAY
MLB BASEBALL
10* Play Chicago White Sox +115 over Houston (MLB TOP PLAY)
Houston is 30-74 in day games the last three seasons
Houston is 32-71 in home games the last two seasons
Houston is 20-38 when playing on a Saturday the last three seasons
10* Play Seattle +105 over Minnesota (MLB TOP PLAY)
Minnesota is 30-44 vs. AL West Division Opponents the last three seasons
Minnesota is 56-77 at home when the line posted is between +125 to -125
Minnesota is 44-57 vs. left-handed starting pitchers the last three seasons
=============================================
5* Play Toronto +100 over Texas (MLB EXTRA PLAY)
5* Play Cincinnati +120 over Philadelphia (MLB EXTRA PLAY)
Kevin's Pick(s):
A 1-0 loss for Boston, as Scherzer lowered his 7.02 career ERA vs the Red Sox. Two picks for Saturday as I look to pick up a couple winners.
2 UNIT = San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies - ROCKIES TO WIN (-132)
Listed Pitchers: Erlin vs Lyles
(Note: Im' risking 2.00 units to win 1.52 units)
Robbie Erlin will take the mound for the Padres as he makes his first career start at Coors Field. On the season he is 2-4 with a 4.22 ERA, .255 OBA and 1.24 WHIP. He faced Colorado earlier this season and lasted just 4.2 innings giving up 6 hits and 3 earned runs. He hasn't been the only lefty to struggle against the Rockies, as Colorado ranks 1st in the MLB in team batting average vs lefties at .307 and well ahead in 1st in OPS at .854. On the other hand the Padres will be facing a righty in Jordan Lyles, and the Padres rank dead last in the MLB in team batting average (.213) and OPS vs righties (.594). Lyles has had a rough MLB career up until 2014, but he looks like a different pitcher this year. So far over 8 starts he is 5-0 with a 2.66 ERA, .223 OBA and 1.09 WHIP. At home this year he is a solid 3-0 with a 1.25 ERA, .221 OBA and 0.97 WHIP over his first three starts. The Padres are just 2-5 in Erlin's last 7 road starts and 1-5 in his last 6 starts overall. The Rockies are 4-1 in Lyle's last 5 starts. I'll lay a bit of chalk taking the Rockies here at home.
2 UNIT = Oakland Athletics @ Cleveland Indians - UNDER 7.5 RUNS (+100)
Listed Pitchers: Kazmir vs Tomlin
(Note: Im' risking 2.00 units to win 2.00 units)
Scott Kazmir will take the mound for the A's to face his former team for a second time on Saturday. He has been really good so far this season. He is 5-1 with a 2.28 ERA, .216 OBA and 0.97 WHIP over his first 8 starts. In his first start vs the Indians he went 7.1 innings giving up just 3 hits and no earned runs with 5 strikeouts and no walks. Josh Tomlin will counter for Cleveland and in his first two starts of the year he is 2-0 with a 2.13 ERA, .213 OBA and 0.87 WHIP. In 5 Triple-A starts Tomlin was stellar going 2-1 with a 2.06 ERA, .185 OBA and 0.89 WHIP. Take note that the Indians are the league's worst hitting team vs lefties with a team .211 average and .609 OPS. The UNDER is 4-1 in Kazmir's last 5 starts with 5 days rest. The UNDER is also 4-0 in Tomlin's last 4 home starts, and 5-1-1 in his last 7 starts as a home underdog. These two teams have played to the UNDER is 34 of their last 51 meetings. Take the UNDER with these two pitchers on the mound, who have both been great this season.
A 1-0 loss for Boston, as Scherzer lowered his 7.02 career ERA vs the Red Sox. Two picks for Saturday as I look to pick up a couple winners.
2 UNIT = San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies - ROCKIES TO WIN (-132)
Listed Pitchers: Erlin vs Lyles
(Note: Im' risking 2.00 units to win 1.52 units)
Robbie Erlin will take the mound for the Padres as he makes his first career start at Coors Field. On the season he is 2-4 with a 4.22 ERA, .255 OBA and 1.24 WHIP. He faced Colorado earlier this season and lasted just 4.2 innings giving up 6 hits and 3 earned runs. He hasn't been the only lefty to struggle against the Rockies, as Colorado ranks 1st in the MLB in team batting average vs lefties at .307 and well ahead in 1st in OPS at .854. On the other hand the Padres will be facing a righty in Jordan Lyles, and the Padres rank dead last in the MLB in team batting average (.213) and OPS vs righties (.594). Lyles has had a rough MLB career up until 2014, but he looks like a different pitcher this year. So far over 8 starts he is 5-0 with a 2.66 ERA, .223 OBA and 1.09 WHIP. At home this year he is a solid 3-0 with a 1.25 ERA, .221 OBA and 0.97 WHIP over his first three starts. The Padres are just 2-5 in Erlin's last 7 road starts and 1-5 in his last 6 starts overall. The Rockies are 4-1 in Lyle's last 5 starts. I'll lay a bit of chalk taking the Rockies here at home.
2 UNIT = Oakland Athletics @ Cleveland Indians - UNDER 7.5 RUNS (+100)
Listed Pitchers: Kazmir vs Tomlin
(Note: Im' risking 2.00 units to win 2.00 units)
Scott Kazmir will take the mound for the A's to face his former team for a second time on Saturday. He has been really good so far this season. He is 5-1 with a 2.28 ERA, .216 OBA and 0.97 WHIP over his first 8 starts. In his first start vs the Indians he went 7.1 innings giving up just 3 hits and no earned runs with 5 strikeouts and no walks. Josh Tomlin will counter for Cleveland and in his first two starts of the year he is 2-0 with a 2.13 ERA, .213 OBA and 0.87 WHIP. In 5 Triple-A starts Tomlin was stellar going 2-1 with a 2.06 ERA, .185 OBA and 0.89 WHIP. Take note that the Indians are the league's worst hitting team vs lefties with a team .211 average and .609 OPS. The UNDER is 4-1 in Kazmir's last 5 starts with 5 days rest. The UNDER is also 4-0 in Tomlin's last 4 home starts, and 5-1-1 in his last 7 starts as a home underdog. These two teams have played to the UNDER is 34 of their last 51 meetings. Take the UNDER with these two pitchers on the mound, who have both been great this season.
WNBA Basketball Picks
Chicago at New York
The Sky head to New York tonight to face a Liberty team that is coming off a 75-54 win over Connecticut and is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games following a SU victory. Chicago is the pick (+5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Liberty favored by only 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+5 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.
Chicago at New York
The Sky head to New York tonight to face a Liberty team that is coming off a 75-54 win over Connecticut and is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games following a SU victory. Chicago is the pick (+5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Liberty favored by only 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+5 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.
| SATURDAY, MAY 17 Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST |
| Game 651-652: Atlanta at Indiana (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 111.096; Indiana 122.495 Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 11 1/2; 152 Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 2; 145 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+2); Over |
| Game 653-654: Chicago at New York (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 105.014; New York 106.673 Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 1 1/2; 143 Vegas Line & Total: New York by 5 1/2; 149 Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+5 1/2); Under |
| Game 655-656: Tulsa at San Antonio (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 109.677; San Antonio 110.910 Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 1; 160 Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 8 1/2; 154 Dunkel Pick: Tulsa (+8 1/2); Over |
| Game 657-658: Seattle at Phoenix (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 105.617; Phoenix 119.701 Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 14; 139 Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 8 1/2; 151 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-8 1/2); Under |
Saturday's MLB betting cheat sheet: Few big moneyline plays
Here's a comprehensive look at betting notes for Saturday's major league games:
Bunches of Blankings
A whopping six teams were shut out on a night where pitching shone. Boston, Texas, Kansas City, the Los Angeles Angels, Philadelphia and Arizona all finished with zeroes on the scoreboard; despite this, the Under enjoyed only a modest 6-7-1 edge on the evening.
No Help For Yu
Texas ace Yu Darvish was on the receiving end of yet another poor effort from the Rangers' lineup, which managed just three hits in a 2-0 loss to Drew Hutchison and the Toronto Blue Jays (+155). Texas has been shut out in each of Darvish's previous four losses, including his only two this season.
No Big Favorites
Expect plenty of tightly contested games Saturday, with several tight moneylines on the ledger; Toronto and Texas are both -104 while Minnesota is a narrow -108 favorite against Seattle and Houston is -115 versus the White Sox. The biggest fave of the day: the Dodgers, who are -160 at Arizona.
Pitching Notes
* Oakland Athletics left-hander Scott Kazmir has been one of the top money earners so far this season, entering the weekend ranked ninth in the majors at $504. Kazmir looks like good value Saturday as he leads the Athletics (-136, 7.5) against a Cleveland team that was thumped 11-1 in the series opener.
* Philadelphia Phillies lefty Cole Hamels is on a strong Over roll, going 5-1-1 O/U in his last seven starts dating back to last September; unfortunately, he's also 1-6 against the moneyline over that stretch. Hamels and the Phillies (-117, 7.5) entertain the Cincinnati Reds on Saturday.
Batting Notes
* Toronto outfielder Melky Cabrera singled home both runs in Friday's narrow triumph over the Rangers. The Blue Jays are 8-4 against the moneyline and 7-4-1 O/U in games in which Cabrera records at least one RBI going into Saturday's rematch with Texas.
* Braves outfielder Jason Heyward is mired in a 6-for-37 slump and hasn't recorded a multi-hit game since May 2. Atlanta, which is 5-6 against the money line and 2-8-1 O/U in that span, visits the St. Louis Cardinals (-119, 7) in a Saturday matinee game.
Totals Streak
Oakland Athletics (7-2-1 O/U): The Athletics have been running roughshod over the rest of the league, reeling off victories in seven of their last eight games while averaging better than 6.5 runs per game over that stretch - including 11-run outbursts in two of their last three contests.
Prop of the Day
The Los Angeles Angels are +220 to prevail by three or more runs against the Tampa Bay Rays on Saturday. All but one of Angels starter C.J. Wilson's outings this season have been decided by three runs or more; the Angels are 4-4 overall in Wilson's starts, including a 2-2 mark at home.
Injury Notes
* Cincinnati Reds first baseman Joey Votto has been diagnosed with a strained quad but has not been placed on the disabled list. Votto has just 10 hits over his previous 55 at-bats, a major reason why the Reds are 4-11-1 O/U during his prolonged slump.
* Minnesota Twins outfielder Josh Willingham (wrist) went 0-for-4 in a minor-league rehab assignment. Minnesota is +510 units without the services of Willingham, who is expected to be activated from the 15-day disabled list sometime next week.
Weather Watch
* Fans at Wrigley Field will be treated to wind blowing out to right field at 6 mph for Saturday afternoon's game between the Cubs and the visiting Milwaukee Brewers (-117). Teams combined to average nearly 11 runs per game in 10 contests under similar conditions last season.
Umpire Note of the Day
Over is 10-1 in umpire Ed Hickox's last 11 games behind home plate involving the New York Mets. Hickox will be calling the balls and strikes as New York visits Washington (-152, 7.5).
** Odds, stats, weather forecast and probable pitchers as of 4:30 a.m. ET Saturday.
Here's a comprehensive look at betting notes for Saturday's major league games:
Bunches of Blankings
A whopping six teams were shut out on a night where pitching shone. Boston, Texas, Kansas City, the Los Angeles Angels, Philadelphia and Arizona all finished with zeroes on the scoreboard; despite this, the Under enjoyed only a modest 6-7-1 edge on the evening.
No Help For Yu
Texas ace Yu Darvish was on the receiving end of yet another poor effort from the Rangers' lineup, which managed just three hits in a 2-0 loss to Drew Hutchison and the Toronto Blue Jays (+155). Texas has been shut out in each of Darvish's previous four losses, including his only two this season.
No Big Favorites
Expect plenty of tightly contested games Saturday, with several tight moneylines on the ledger; Toronto and Texas are both -104 while Minnesota is a narrow -108 favorite against Seattle and Houston is -115 versus the White Sox. The biggest fave of the day: the Dodgers, who are -160 at Arizona.
Pitching Notes
* Oakland Athletics left-hander Scott Kazmir has been one of the top money earners so far this season, entering the weekend ranked ninth in the majors at $504. Kazmir looks like good value Saturday as he leads the Athletics (-136, 7.5) against a Cleveland team that was thumped 11-1 in the series opener.
* Philadelphia Phillies lefty Cole Hamels is on a strong Over roll, going 5-1-1 O/U in his last seven starts dating back to last September; unfortunately, he's also 1-6 against the moneyline over that stretch. Hamels and the Phillies (-117, 7.5) entertain the Cincinnati Reds on Saturday.
Batting Notes
* Toronto outfielder Melky Cabrera singled home both runs in Friday's narrow triumph over the Rangers. The Blue Jays are 8-4 against the moneyline and 7-4-1 O/U in games in which Cabrera records at least one RBI going into Saturday's rematch with Texas.
* Braves outfielder Jason Heyward is mired in a 6-for-37 slump and hasn't recorded a multi-hit game since May 2. Atlanta, which is 5-6 against the money line and 2-8-1 O/U in that span, visits the St. Louis Cardinals (-119, 7) in a Saturday matinee game.
Totals Streak
Oakland Athletics (7-2-1 O/U): The Athletics have been running roughshod over the rest of the league, reeling off victories in seven of their last eight games while averaging better than 6.5 runs per game over that stretch - including 11-run outbursts in two of their last three contests.
Prop of the Day
The Los Angeles Angels are +220 to prevail by three or more runs against the Tampa Bay Rays on Saturday. All but one of Angels starter C.J. Wilson's outings this season have been decided by three runs or more; the Angels are 4-4 overall in Wilson's starts, including a 2-2 mark at home.
Injury Notes
* Cincinnati Reds first baseman Joey Votto has been diagnosed with a strained quad but has not been placed on the disabled list. Votto has just 10 hits over his previous 55 at-bats, a major reason why the Reds are 4-11-1 O/U during his prolonged slump.
* Minnesota Twins outfielder Josh Willingham (wrist) went 0-for-4 in a minor-league rehab assignment. Minnesota is +510 units without the services of Willingham, who is expected to be activated from the 15-day disabled list sometime next week.
Weather Watch
* Fans at Wrigley Field will be treated to wind blowing out to right field at 6 mph for Saturday afternoon's game between the Cubs and the visiting Milwaukee Brewers (-117). Teams combined to average nearly 11 runs per game in 10 contests under similar conditions last season.
Umpire Note of the Day
Over is 10-1 in umpire Ed Hickox's last 11 games behind home plate involving the New York Mets. Hickox will be calling the balls and strikes as New York visits Washington (-152, 7.5).
** Odds, stats, weather forecast and probable pitchers as of 4:30 a.m. ET Saturday.
Game of the Day: Tigers at Red Sox
Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox (-125, 8.5)
The Detroit Tigers are trying to get some revenge for a loss in the American League Championship Series and are off to a good start. The Tigers will try to clinch the three-game series when they visit the Boston Red Sox on Saturday. Detroit, which suffered a 4-2 loss to the Red Sox in the ALCS, took Friday’s opener 1-0 as Max Scherzer outdueled Jon Lester in a game that was played through rain.
Boston has dropped three of its last four games to drop below .500 at 20-21 and is having some problems offensively from everyone other than David Ortiz. Boston managed three hits in Friday’s setback and Jackie Bradley Jr. (.200) and Will Middlebrooks (.197) are producing very little from the bottom of the order. Torii Hunter became a key figure in the ALCS when he tumbled into the Boston bullpen trying to catch Ortiz’s grand slam in Game 2. Hunter got some personal revenge on Friday as the only player in the contest with multiple hits, including the lone RBI.
TV: 7:10 p.m. ET, FSN Detroit, NESN (Boston)
LINE HISTORY: The Red Sox opened as -115 favorites and have been bet to -125. The total opened at 8.5.
INJURY REPORT: Tigers - OF Andy Dicks (Out, back), SS Jose Iglesias (Out, leg) Red Sox - OF Shane Victorino (Questionable, knee)
POWER RANKINGS: Detroit (-198), Boston (-162)
PITCHING MATCHUP: Tigers RHP Rick Porcello (6-1, 3.22 ERA) vs. RHP John Lackey (5-2, 3.57 ERA)
Porcello has won five straight starts and allowed two or fewer earned runs in each of his last three turns. The 25-year-old has issued only six walks in 44 2/3 innings and is fully recovered from the tightness in his left side that forced him to leave a start at Baltimore on Monday after six innings. Porcello was removed from the rotation for the playoffs last October and got in one appearance in the ALCS against the Red Sox, surrendering an unearned run on two hits without recording an out.
Lackey is just as sharp as Porcello of late and has allowed two or fewer earned runs in four straight starts after holding the Texas Rangers to two runs over seven innings last weekend. The veteran struck out nine in that turn and owns 52 punchouts in 53 innings. Lackey made one start against the Tigers in the ALCS and yielded four hits and struck out eight in 6 2/3 scoreless innings to pick up the Game 3 win.
TRENDS:
* Under is 4-0 in Lackey's last four starts vs. Tigers.
* Over is 3-0-1 in Porcello's last four starts vs. Red Sox.
* Red Sox are 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Tigers are 1-4 in Porcello's last five starts vs. Red Sox.
CONSENSUS: Fifty-three percent of wagers are on the Red Sox -125.
Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox (-125, 8.5)
The Detroit Tigers are trying to get some revenge for a loss in the American League Championship Series and are off to a good start. The Tigers will try to clinch the three-game series when they visit the Boston Red Sox on Saturday. Detroit, which suffered a 4-2 loss to the Red Sox in the ALCS, took Friday’s opener 1-0 as Max Scherzer outdueled Jon Lester in a game that was played through rain.
Boston has dropped three of its last four games to drop below .500 at 20-21 and is having some problems offensively from everyone other than David Ortiz. Boston managed three hits in Friday’s setback and Jackie Bradley Jr. (.200) and Will Middlebrooks (.197) are producing very little from the bottom of the order. Torii Hunter became a key figure in the ALCS when he tumbled into the Boston bullpen trying to catch Ortiz’s grand slam in Game 2. Hunter got some personal revenge on Friday as the only player in the contest with multiple hits, including the lone RBI.
TV: 7:10 p.m. ET, FSN Detroit, NESN (Boston)
LINE HISTORY: The Red Sox opened as -115 favorites and have been bet to -125. The total opened at 8.5.
INJURY REPORT: Tigers - OF Andy Dicks (Out, back), SS Jose Iglesias (Out, leg) Red Sox - OF Shane Victorino (Questionable, knee)
POWER RANKINGS: Detroit (-198), Boston (-162)
PITCHING MATCHUP: Tigers RHP Rick Porcello (6-1, 3.22 ERA) vs. RHP John Lackey (5-2, 3.57 ERA)
Porcello has won five straight starts and allowed two or fewer earned runs in each of his last three turns. The 25-year-old has issued only six walks in 44 2/3 innings and is fully recovered from the tightness in his left side that forced him to leave a start at Baltimore on Monday after six innings. Porcello was removed from the rotation for the playoffs last October and got in one appearance in the ALCS against the Red Sox, surrendering an unearned run on two hits without recording an out.
Lackey is just as sharp as Porcello of late and has allowed two or fewer earned runs in four straight starts after holding the Texas Rangers to two runs over seven innings last weekend. The veteran struck out nine in that turn and owns 52 punchouts in 53 innings. Lackey made one start against the Tigers in the ALCS and yielded four hits and struck out eight in 6 2/3 scoreless innings to pick up the Game 3 win.
TRENDS:
* Under is 4-0 in Lackey's last four starts vs. Tigers.
* Over is 3-0-1 in Porcello's last four starts vs. Red Sox.
* Red Sox are 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Tigers are 1-4 in Porcello's last five starts vs. Red Sox.
CONSENSUS: Fifty-three percent of wagers are on the Red Sox -125.
StatFox Super Situations – FoxSheets
MLB | SAN DIEGO at COLORADO
Play Against – All teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (COLORADO) team with a good OBP (>=.340) against a good starting pitcher (WHIP=1.250 to 1.300) -NL, with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better on the season (NL)
40-21 since 1997. ( 65.6% | 26.1 units )
StatFox Situational Power Trends – FoxSheets
MLB | BALTIMORE at KANSAS CITY
BALTIMORE is 12-4 (+10.9 Units) against the money line in Road games vs. AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season this season.
The average score was: BALTIMORE (5.8) , OPPONENT (4.1)
MLB | SAN DIEGO at COLORADO
Play Against – All teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (COLORADO) team with a good OBP (>=.340) against a good starting pitcher (WHIP=1.250 to 1.300) -NL, with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better on the season (NL)
40-21 since 1997. ( 65.6% | 26.1 units )
StatFox Situational Power Trends – FoxSheets
MLB | BALTIMORE at KANSAS CITY
BALTIMORE is 12-4 (+10.9 Units) against the money line in Road games vs. AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season this season.
The average score was: BALTIMORE (5.8) , OPPONENT (4.1)
STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
SATURDAY, MAY 17th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Saturday, 5/17/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #7
•The Indians Ship Danny Salazar To Columbus: Danny Salazar debuted with the Indians last year and made quite an impression, posting a 3.12 ERA in ten starts. This after some promising numbers as he rose through the minor leagues. This year, however, he has been awful, going 1-4 with a 5.53 ERA, walking more batters than he walked last year and allowing way more hits. That was enough for the Indians: they just optioned him to Triple-A Columbus. To replace him on the roster they called up left Kyle Crockett from Double-A Akron. Assuming Salazar figures it out in the minors, he’ll be back soon. He’s way too important to the Indians future not to be.
•Tigers' Sanchez Expected To Start Sunday Vs. Red Sox: Anibal Sanchez, the Major Leagues' leader in ERA last season, is close to returning to the mound for the Detroit Tigers. Sanchez is expected to be taken off the 15-day disabled list to make the start Sunday against Boston. Sanchez went on the disabled list April 24 with a laceration on his right middle finger. Sanchez is 0-2 with a 3.13 ERA, 24 strikeouts and 11 walks this season.
•Votto Getting MRI On Knee: Cincinnati Reds first baseman Joey Votto was scheduled to have an MRI on his left knee, MLB.com reported Friday. It is the same knee that Votto had surgery on twice in 2012 when he played just 111 games. Votto stayed in Cincinnati following Thursday's doubleheader against the San Diego Padres while the rest of the team traveled to Philadelphia for this weekend's series against the Phillies. The extent and cause of the injury are not clear but he could end up on the disabled list. Votto has only driven in two runs in his last 16 games and is batting just .209 this month. Votto went 0-for-3 with three strikeouts in the second game of Thursday's doubleheader. For the season, Votto is batting .257 with six home runs and 12 RBIs.
•Reserves Are Key Contributors To Angels' Backup Plan: The Angels' Efren Navarro hopes his latest cup of coffee in the big leagues is good to the last drop. Entering Thursday's game, the first baseman and outfielder had five hits — including three doubles — in 14 at-bats and had driven in two runs since being called up from triple-A Salt Lake a week ago. Navarro, a longtime minor leaguer who turned 28 on Wednesday, is one of several reserves who have helped the Angels score runs recently while they await the return of regulars Josh Hamilton, Kole Calhoun and David Freese.
The other reserves include Collin Cowgill, C.J. Cron, Grant Green and Luis Jimenez, and "these guys have all contributed," Manager Mike Scioscia said. "They need to keep contributing because we're not obviously as deep on the offensive end as we hope to be in a couple of weeks," he added. When the season started, the Angels' farm system was ranked at or near the bottom among big league clubs by Baseball Prospectus and others. But Scioscia said, "The depth of our organization has showed up both on the pitching side and on the position-player side."
Before his latest call-up, the left-handed Navarro had made only two other brief appearances in the big leagues while otherwise spending seven years in the minors, where he's a .295 career hitter. To play in the major leagues is "just a passion, it's a dream that I've had since I was 5 years old," he said. "I still have a lot left to prove to myself and I know this is where I belong. It's just a matter of time and place." Navarro was born in Lynwood and attended Lynwood High; his parents, Efren Sr. — Navarro technically is Efren Navarro Jr. — and Guadalupe still live in Lynwood. Navarro then spent three years at Nevada Las Vegas before being drafted by the Angels in 2007.
Injury Update
Hamilton took batting practice for the first time since he injured his left thumb and went on the disabled list April 9. "He's kept himself as close as he can to staying in baseball shape with some of the drills he's done," Scioscia said, adding that it's hoped Hamilton can start playing rehabilitation games in a week or so. Calhoun, a fellow outfielder on the disabled list since mid-April because of a sprained right ankle, was scheduled to join triple-A Salt Lake in Reno on Friday to start playing rehab games. "Hopefully everything goes good and [I'll] be back sometime the middle of next week," Calhoun said.
Betting Notes - Saturday
•Hot Pitchers
-- Miller is 5-0, 2.16 in his last six starts.
-- Jackson has a 2.75 RA in his last three home starts.
-- Bailey is 2-0, 2.95 in his last three starts,
-- Lyles is 3-0, 2.12 in his last five starts. Erlin is 1-0, 0.68 in his last two.
-- Kershaw is 2-0, 1.74 in three starts this season. Anderson allowed one run in 5.1 IP (74 PT) in his MLB debut.
-- Giants won Lincecum's last three home starts (1-0, 2.60).
-- Cosart is 1-1, 2.45 in his last four starts.
-- Kazmir is 3-1, 3.00 in his last four starts. Tomlin is 2-0, 2.12 in two starts this season.
-- Porcello is 5-0, 2.84 in his last five starts. Lackey is 3-0, 2.17 in his last four.
-- Duffy has a 1.80 RA in two starts, but no wins.
-- Buehrle is 3-0, 2.29 in his last three starts.
-- Wilson is 4-2, 3.19 in his last seven starts.
•Cold Pitchers
-- Harang is 1-2, 8.10 in his last three starts.
-- Garza is 1-1, 7.07 in his last three starts.
-- Colon is 0-2, 8.83 in his last three starts. Gonzalez is 0-2, 5.16 in last four.
-- Phillies are 0-4 when Hamels starts (0-2, 5.32).
-- Miami is 0-4 in Koehler's road starts (0-3, 5.14).
-- Noesi is 0-2, 4.91 in three starts for Chicago.
-- Norris is 1-2, 5.48 in four road starts.
-- Deduno is 0-1, 5.73 in two starts this season. Elias has a 5.76 RA in his last five outings.
-- Texas lost last five Ross starts (0-4, 10.12).
-- Ramos is 0-1, 6.35 in his last three starts.
-- Volquez is 0-3, 6.85 in his last four starts. Phelps is 0-0, 4.36 in two starts.
•Totals
-- 11 of last 15 Milwaukee road games went over total.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Washington home games.
-- Nine of last ten Cincinnati games stayed under.
-- Under is 9-2-2 in last thirteen Atlanta games. Over is 6-0-2 in Cardinals' last eight games.
-- 16 of last 19 San Diego road games stayed under.
-- Five of last six Arizona games stayed under; last five of last six Dodger games went over the total.
-- Last seven Miami games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Cleveland home games stayed under.
-- Under is 10-4 in Boston's last fourteen games.
-- Six of last eight Texas games stayed under.
-- Under is 6-1-1 in Orioles' last eight road games.
-- Five of last seven Houston home games went over.
-- Six of last eight Seattle road games went over total.
-- Five of last seven Tampa Bay road games stayed under.
-- Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Pirate road games.
•Hot Teams
-- Brewers won five of their last six games.
-- Cardinals won eight of their last eleven games.
-- Nationals won five of its last seven home games.
-- Padres won five of its last seven games.
-- Giants won 16 of their last 22 games.
-- Athletics won seven of their last eight games.
-- Tigers won eight of their last nine road games. Boston won five of their last six home games.
-- Orioles won eight of its last ten road games.
-- Blue Jays won four of their last five games.
-- Twins won five of their last six home games.
-- Rays won seven of last ten on road. Los Angeles won six of their last eight games overall.
•Cold Teams
-- Cubs lost ten of their last twelve games.
-- Mets lost 11 of their last 15 games.
-- Phillies lost eight of last ten games. Cincinnati lost five of last six on road.
-- Braves lost seven of their last eight road games.
-- Rockies lost five of its last seven games.
-- Marlins lost six of its last eight road games.
-- Dodgers are 5-8 in last 13 games. Arizona lost 15 of its last 18 home games.
-- Indians lost three of their last four games.
-- Rangers lost seven of its last nine home games.
-- Royals lost six of last eight home games.
-- White Sox lost four of their last six road games. Houston lost 11 of their last 16 games overall.
-- Mariners lost four of last five games, but won seven of last ten on road.
-- Yankees lost six of its last seven home games. Pittsburgh lost 11 of their last 14 road games.
•Umpires Trends
-- Atl-StL-- Last three Kulpa games stayed under total.
-- Mil-Chi-- Four of last five Gorman games stayed under.
-- NY-Wsh-- Five of seven Hickox games stayed under.
-- Cin-Phil-- Road team won three of four Baker games.
-- SD-Col-- Home side won five of Knight's last six games.
-- LA-Az-- Favorites won five of last seven Wolcott games.
-- Mia-SF-- Favorites won seven of eight Cederstrom games.
-- Chi-Hst-- Five of last six TBarrett games went over.
-- A's-Cle-- Five of six Layne games went over the total.
-- Det-Bos-- Six of seven Fagan games stayed under total.
-- Balt-KC-- All five Segal games went over the total.
-- Sea-Min-- Four of six Hernandez games went over.
-- Tor-Tex-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Scott games.
-- TB-LAA-- Favorites won five of last six Reynolds games.
Diamond Trends - Saturday
•KANSAS CITY is 22-6 (+15.8 Units) against the money line with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 15 games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was KANSAS CITY 5.0, OPPONENT 2.4.
•TEXAS is 16-2 UNDER (+13.7 Units) in home games against American League East opponents over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TEXAS 3.0, OPPONENT 3.6.
•PITTSBURGH is 17-1 (+17.3 Units) against the run line versus American League teams allowing 4.7 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 4.3, OPPONENT 2.7.
•COLE HAMELS is 4-14 (-16.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was HAMELS 3.5, OPPONENT 4.0.
•SAM DEDUNO is 13-1 UNDER (+12.0 Units) versus American League teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DEDUNO 2.9, OPPONENT 3.1.
•BARTOLO COLON is 16-3 (+12.5 Units) against the run line versus poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was COLON 5.2, OPPONENT 3.5.
Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play On - All teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (MIAMI) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.70 or better on the season (National League), terrible speed team - averaging 0.35 or less SB's/game on the season.
(44-16 over the last 5 seasons.) (73.3%, +28.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +100.9
The average score in these games was: Team 4.7, Opponent 3.2 (Average run differential = +1.5)
The situation's record this season is: (3-3, -0.2 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (35-14, +21.5 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (90-84, +2.7 units).
•Play On - Road teams against a 1.5 run line (TAMPA BAY) - stranding 7.5 or more runners on base per game on the season with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.400 to 1.500 on the season (American League), after 10 straight games where they failed to hit more than one HR.
(36-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (83.7%, +27.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (31-12 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.7, money line price: -121
The average score in these games was: Team 5.5, Opponent 3.5 (Average run differential = +2)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 28 (65.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0, +1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (14-5, +6.7 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (198-142, +15.6 units).
•Play Over - All teams where the total is 7 or less (ATLANTA) - horrible offensive team - scoring <=3.3 runs/game on the season (National League) against opponent terrible offensive team - scoring <=3.8 runs/game on the season (NL).
(53-18 since 1997.) (74.6%, +35.3 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 6.7, Money Line=+100.6
The average score in these games was: Team 4.3, Opponent 4.3 (Total runs scored = 8.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 39 (52% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (8-3, +5.4 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (41-13, +28.3 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (50-15, +35.3 units).
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SATURDAY, MAY 17th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Saturday, 5/17/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #7
•The Indians Ship Danny Salazar To Columbus: Danny Salazar debuted with the Indians last year and made quite an impression, posting a 3.12 ERA in ten starts. This after some promising numbers as he rose through the minor leagues. This year, however, he has been awful, going 1-4 with a 5.53 ERA, walking more batters than he walked last year and allowing way more hits. That was enough for the Indians: they just optioned him to Triple-A Columbus. To replace him on the roster they called up left Kyle Crockett from Double-A Akron. Assuming Salazar figures it out in the minors, he’ll be back soon. He’s way too important to the Indians future not to be.
•Tigers' Sanchez Expected To Start Sunday Vs. Red Sox: Anibal Sanchez, the Major Leagues' leader in ERA last season, is close to returning to the mound for the Detroit Tigers. Sanchez is expected to be taken off the 15-day disabled list to make the start Sunday against Boston. Sanchez went on the disabled list April 24 with a laceration on his right middle finger. Sanchez is 0-2 with a 3.13 ERA, 24 strikeouts and 11 walks this season.
•Votto Getting MRI On Knee: Cincinnati Reds first baseman Joey Votto was scheduled to have an MRI on his left knee, MLB.com reported Friday. It is the same knee that Votto had surgery on twice in 2012 when he played just 111 games. Votto stayed in Cincinnati following Thursday's doubleheader against the San Diego Padres while the rest of the team traveled to Philadelphia for this weekend's series against the Phillies. The extent and cause of the injury are not clear but he could end up on the disabled list. Votto has only driven in two runs in his last 16 games and is batting just .209 this month. Votto went 0-for-3 with three strikeouts in the second game of Thursday's doubleheader. For the season, Votto is batting .257 with six home runs and 12 RBIs.
•Reserves Are Key Contributors To Angels' Backup Plan: The Angels' Efren Navarro hopes his latest cup of coffee in the big leagues is good to the last drop. Entering Thursday's game, the first baseman and outfielder had five hits — including three doubles — in 14 at-bats and had driven in two runs since being called up from triple-A Salt Lake a week ago. Navarro, a longtime minor leaguer who turned 28 on Wednesday, is one of several reserves who have helped the Angels score runs recently while they await the return of regulars Josh Hamilton, Kole Calhoun and David Freese.
The other reserves include Collin Cowgill, C.J. Cron, Grant Green and Luis Jimenez, and "these guys have all contributed," Manager Mike Scioscia said. "They need to keep contributing because we're not obviously as deep on the offensive end as we hope to be in a couple of weeks," he added. When the season started, the Angels' farm system was ranked at or near the bottom among big league clubs by Baseball Prospectus and others. But Scioscia said, "The depth of our organization has showed up both on the pitching side and on the position-player side."
Before his latest call-up, the left-handed Navarro had made only two other brief appearances in the big leagues while otherwise spending seven years in the minors, where he's a .295 career hitter. To play in the major leagues is "just a passion, it's a dream that I've had since I was 5 years old," he said. "I still have a lot left to prove to myself and I know this is where I belong. It's just a matter of time and place." Navarro was born in Lynwood and attended Lynwood High; his parents, Efren Sr. — Navarro technically is Efren Navarro Jr. — and Guadalupe still live in Lynwood. Navarro then spent three years at Nevada Las Vegas before being drafted by the Angels in 2007.
Injury Update
Hamilton took batting practice for the first time since he injured his left thumb and went on the disabled list April 9. "He's kept himself as close as he can to staying in baseball shape with some of the drills he's done," Scioscia said, adding that it's hoped Hamilton can start playing rehabilitation games in a week or so. Calhoun, a fellow outfielder on the disabled list since mid-April because of a sprained right ankle, was scheduled to join triple-A Salt Lake in Reno on Friday to start playing rehab games. "Hopefully everything goes good and [I'll] be back sometime the middle of next week," Calhoun said.
Betting Notes - Saturday
•Hot Pitchers
-- Miller is 5-0, 2.16 in his last six starts.
-- Jackson has a 2.75 RA in his last three home starts.
-- Bailey is 2-0, 2.95 in his last three starts,
-- Lyles is 3-0, 2.12 in his last five starts. Erlin is 1-0, 0.68 in his last two.
-- Kershaw is 2-0, 1.74 in three starts this season. Anderson allowed one run in 5.1 IP (74 PT) in his MLB debut.
-- Giants won Lincecum's last three home starts (1-0, 2.60).
-- Cosart is 1-1, 2.45 in his last four starts.
-- Kazmir is 3-1, 3.00 in his last four starts. Tomlin is 2-0, 2.12 in two starts this season.
-- Porcello is 5-0, 2.84 in his last five starts. Lackey is 3-0, 2.17 in his last four.
-- Duffy has a 1.80 RA in two starts, but no wins.
-- Buehrle is 3-0, 2.29 in his last three starts.
-- Wilson is 4-2, 3.19 in his last seven starts.
•Cold Pitchers
-- Harang is 1-2, 8.10 in his last three starts.
-- Garza is 1-1, 7.07 in his last three starts.
-- Colon is 0-2, 8.83 in his last three starts. Gonzalez is 0-2, 5.16 in last four.
-- Phillies are 0-4 when Hamels starts (0-2, 5.32).
-- Miami is 0-4 in Koehler's road starts (0-3, 5.14).
-- Noesi is 0-2, 4.91 in three starts for Chicago.
-- Norris is 1-2, 5.48 in four road starts.
-- Deduno is 0-1, 5.73 in two starts this season. Elias has a 5.76 RA in his last five outings.
-- Texas lost last five Ross starts (0-4, 10.12).
-- Ramos is 0-1, 6.35 in his last three starts.
-- Volquez is 0-3, 6.85 in his last four starts. Phelps is 0-0, 4.36 in two starts.
•Totals
-- 11 of last 15 Milwaukee road games went over total.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Washington home games.
-- Nine of last ten Cincinnati games stayed under.
-- Under is 9-2-2 in last thirteen Atlanta games. Over is 6-0-2 in Cardinals' last eight games.
-- 16 of last 19 San Diego road games stayed under.
-- Five of last six Arizona games stayed under; last five of last six Dodger games went over the total.
-- Last seven Miami games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Cleveland home games stayed under.
-- Under is 10-4 in Boston's last fourteen games.
-- Six of last eight Texas games stayed under.
-- Under is 6-1-1 in Orioles' last eight road games.
-- Five of last seven Houston home games went over.
-- Six of last eight Seattle road games went over total.
-- Five of last seven Tampa Bay road games stayed under.
-- Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Pirate road games.
•Hot Teams
-- Brewers won five of their last six games.
-- Cardinals won eight of their last eleven games.
-- Nationals won five of its last seven home games.
-- Padres won five of its last seven games.
-- Giants won 16 of their last 22 games.
-- Athletics won seven of their last eight games.
-- Tigers won eight of their last nine road games. Boston won five of their last six home games.
-- Orioles won eight of its last ten road games.
-- Blue Jays won four of their last five games.
-- Twins won five of their last six home games.
-- Rays won seven of last ten on road. Los Angeles won six of their last eight games overall.
•Cold Teams
-- Cubs lost ten of their last twelve games.
-- Mets lost 11 of their last 15 games.
-- Phillies lost eight of last ten games. Cincinnati lost five of last six on road.
-- Braves lost seven of their last eight road games.
-- Rockies lost five of its last seven games.
-- Marlins lost six of its last eight road games.
-- Dodgers are 5-8 in last 13 games. Arizona lost 15 of its last 18 home games.
-- Indians lost three of their last four games.
-- Rangers lost seven of its last nine home games.
-- Royals lost six of last eight home games.
-- White Sox lost four of their last six road games. Houston lost 11 of their last 16 games overall.
-- Mariners lost four of last five games, but won seven of last ten on road.
-- Yankees lost six of its last seven home games. Pittsburgh lost 11 of their last 14 road games.
•Umpires Trends
-- Atl-StL-- Last three Kulpa games stayed under total.
-- Mil-Chi-- Four of last five Gorman games stayed under.
-- NY-Wsh-- Five of seven Hickox games stayed under.
-- Cin-Phil-- Road team won three of four Baker games.
-- SD-Col-- Home side won five of Knight's last six games.
-- LA-Az-- Favorites won five of last seven Wolcott games.
-- Mia-SF-- Favorites won seven of eight Cederstrom games.
-- Chi-Hst-- Five of last six TBarrett games went over.
-- A's-Cle-- Five of six Layne games went over the total.
-- Det-Bos-- Six of seven Fagan games stayed under total.
-- Balt-KC-- All five Segal games went over the total.
-- Sea-Min-- Four of six Hernandez games went over.
-- Tor-Tex-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Scott games.
-- TB-LAA-- Favorites won five of last six Reynolds games.
Diamond Trends - Saturday
•KANSAS CITY is 22-6 (+15.8 Units) against the money line with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 15 games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was KANSAS CITY 5.0, OPPONENT 2.4.
•TEXAS is 16-2 UNDER (+13.7 Units) in home games against American League East opponents over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TEXAS 3.0, OPPONENT 3.6.
•PITTSBURGH is 17-1 (+17.3 Units) against the run line versus American League teams allowing 4.7 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 4.3, OPPONENT 2.7.
•COLE HAMELS is 4-14 (-16.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was HAMELS 3.5, OPPONENT 4.0.
•SAM DEDUNO is 13-1 UNDER (+12.0 Units) versus American League teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DEDUNO 2.9, OPPONENT 3.1.
•BARTOLO COLON is 16-3 (+12.5 Units) against the run line versus poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was COLON 5.2, OPPONENT 3.5.
Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play On - All teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (MIAMI) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.70 or better on the season (National League), terrible speed team - averaging 0.35 or less SB's/game on the season.
(44-16 over the last 5 seasons.) (73.3%, +28.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +100.9
The average score in these games was: Team 4.7, Opponent 3.2 (Average run differential = +1.5)
The situation's record this season is: (3-3, -0.2 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (35-14, +21.5 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (90-84, +2.7 units).
•Play On - Road teams against a 1.5 run line (TAMPA BAY) - stranding 7.5 or more runners on base per game on the season with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.400 to 1.500 on the season (American League), after 10 straight games where they failed to hit more than one HR.
(36-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (83.7%, +27.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (31-12 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.7, money line price: -121
The average score in these games was: Team 5.5, Opponent 3.5 (Average run differential = +2)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 28 (65.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0, +1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (14-5, +6.7 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (198-142, +15.6 units).
•Play Over - All teams where the total is 7 or less (ATLANTA) - horrible offensive team - scoring <=3.3 runs/game on the season (National League) against opponent terrible offensive team - scoring <=3.8 runs/game on the season (NL).
(53-18 since 1997.) (74.6%, +35.3 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 6.7, Money Line=+100.6
The average score in these games was: Team 4.3, Opponent 4.3 (Total runs scored = 8.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 39 (52% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (8-3, +5.4 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (41-13, +28.3 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (50-15, +35.3 units).
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Ecks and Bacon
"Mr Chalk" lost in MLB on Friday with the Angels -$140/Rays.
For Saturday "Mr Chalk" has two in MLB in the National League
(1) Nationals -$150/Mets
(2) Rockies -$140/Padres
Ben lee is 4-5 -$90 for week twenty nine 123-140-5 -$2516
"Mr Chalk" is 20-17 -$282 for the 2014 MLB season.
All E&B selections will be for $50 unless noted.
"Mr Chalk" lost in MLB on Friday with the Angels -$140/Rays.
For Saturday "Mr Chalk" has two in MLB in the National League
(1) Nationals -$150/Mets
(2) Rockies -$140/Padres
Ben lee is 4-5 -$90 for week twenty nine 123-140-5 -$2516
"Mr Chalk" is 20-17 -$282 for the 2014 MLB season.
All E&B selections will be for $50 unless noted.
Three big betting trends for the NHL playoffs conference finals
Only four teams remain in the quest for the Stanley Cup championship - and bettors will want to pay attention to certain trends that have highlighted conference finals in recent years.
Here are three trends betters should be on the lookout for as the Montreal Canadiens, New York Rangers, Los Angeles Kings and Chicago Blackhawks face off for a spot in the Stanley Cup final:
Under a (Slightly) Stronger Play
Despite oddsmakers making adjustments to account for the greater emphasis on defense, teams have still trended Under of late. While clubs are 18-19-4 O/U in conference finals over the past four years, three of the previous four series have favored the Under; only last year's Chicago-Los Angeles series (2-2-1 O/U) did not. Expect low totals this year, with three of the four finalists ranked in the bottom half in regular-season offense and all four in the top 12 in goals against.
Comebacks (Slightly) More Common
Teams that scored first in the regular season prevailed roughly 69.5 percent of the time. That number dips slightly when looking at the previous four conference finals, with teams that hit the scoresheet first winning 68.2 percent of those games. Recent comebacks have been more prevalent in the Western Conference; the teams scoring first are just 6-4 over the past two conference finals, compared to a 10-0 mark for Eastern Conference teams that score first.
Power Outages Expected
Don't expect to see many power-play goals in either conference championship series. Last year saw just three power-play goals scored in the nine conference final games; there were 11 the season before, but those came in 95 combined opportunities. Aside from the Vancouver-San Jose outlier series in 2010-11 - in which the teams combined for a mind-boggling 16 man-advantage goals in their five-game showdown - no other series since 2010 has had more than eight.
Only four teams remain in the quest for the Stanley Cup championship - and bettors will want to pay attention to certain trends that have highlighted conference finals in recent years.
Here are three trends betters should be on the lookout for as the Montreal Canadiens, New York Rangers, Los Angeles Kings and Chicago Blackhawks face off for a spot in the Stanley Cup final:
Under a (Slightly) Stronger Play
Despite oddsmakers making adjustments to account for the greater emphasis on defense, teams have still trended Under of late. While clubs are 18-19-4 O/U in conference finals over the past four years, three of the previous four series have favored the Under; only last year's Chicago-Los Angeles series (2-2-1 O/U) did not. Expect low totals this year, with three of the four finalists ranked in the bottom half in regular-season offense and all four in the top 12 in goals against.
Comebacks (Slightly) More Common
Teams that scored first in the regular season prevailed roughly 69.5 percent of the time. That number dips slightly when looking at the previous four conference finals, with teams that hit the scoresheet first winning 68.2 percent of those games. Recent comebacks have been more prevalent in the Western Conference; the teams scoring first are just 6-4 over the past two conference finals, compared to a 10-0 mark for Eastern Conference teams that score first.
Power Outages Expected
Don't expect to see many power-play goals in either conference championship series. Last year saw just three power-play goals scored in the nine conference final games; there were 11 the season before, but those came in 95 combined opportunities. Aside from the Vancouver-San Jose outlier series in 2010-11 - in which the teams combined for a mind-boggling 16 man-advantage goals in their five-game showdown - no other series since 2010 has had more than eight.
