FantasySportsGametime
MLB Baseball
1000* Play Baltimore -155 over Houston (MLB TOP PLAY)
Houston has lost 37 of the last 57 games when playing on a Saturday and they have lost 28 of the last 40 games vs. AL East Division Opponents.Houston has lost 150 of the last 203 games when playing as an underdog of +150 or higher and they have lost 126 of the last 178 road games.
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50* Play Detroit -200 over Minnesota (MLB BONUS PLAY)
50* Play Oakland -160 over Washington (MLB BONUS PLAY)
MLB Baseball
1000* Play Baltimore -155 over Houston (MLB TOP PLAY)
Houston has lost 37 of the last 57 games when playing on a Saturday and they have lost 28 of the last 40 games vs. AL East Division Opponents.Houston has lost 150 of the last 203 games when playing as an underdog of +150 or higher and they have lost 126 of the last 178 road games.
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50* Play Detroit -200 over Minnesota (MLB BONUS PLAY)
50* Play Oakland -160 over Washington (MLB BONUS PLAY)
XpertPicks
SATURDAY
Portland has lost 29 of the last 43 games against the spread vs. Southwest Division Opponents and they have lost 24 of the last 48 games against the spread after allowing 105 points or more in their last game.Portland has lost 28 of the last 40 home games against the spread coming off a loss and they are allowing an average of 112 points in playoff games this season.
NHL HOCKEY
SATURDAY
- Play San Antonio -1.5 over Portland (NBA)---RISK 10% OF YOUR BANKROLL
10:30 PM EST
Portland has lost 29 of the last 43 games against the spread vs. Southwest Division Opponents and they have lost 24 of the last 48 games against the spread after allowing 105 points or more in their last game.Portland has lost 28 of the last 40 home games against the spread coming off a loss and they are allowing an average of 112 points in playoff games this season.
- Play Brooklyn +1.5 over Miami (TOP NBA PLAY)---RISK 3% OF BANKROLL
NHL HOCKEY
- Play Montreal +190 over Boston (TOP NHL PLAY)---RISK 3% OF BANKROLL
- Play Anaheim +155 over Los Angeles (TOP NHL PLAY)---RISK 3% OF BANKROLL
XpertPicks
SATURDAY BASEBALL
JA Happ has lost 30 of the last 40 games when pitching in the 1[SUP]st[/SUP] half of the season and he has lost 11 of the last 17 day games. JA Happ has lost 12 of the last 16 home games when the total posted is between 8.5 and 10 runs and he has an ERA of 6.24 vs. Los Angeles over his career.
Erik Bedard has lost 22 of the last 25 games when the total posted is between 8 and 8.5 runs and he has lost 22 of the last 31 games when pitching with five or six days of rest. Erik Bedard has lost 6 of the last 8 games when pitching on a Saturday and he has an ERA of 9.39 in home games this season.
CC Sabathia has won 45 of the last 76 games when pitching in the month of May and he has won 34 of the last 41 inter-league games. CC Sabathia has won 94 of the last 150 games when pitching with five or six days of rest and he has won 30 of the last 48 night games.
SATURDAY BASEBALL
- Play Los Angeles Angels +110 over Toronto----Top Play (Risk 8% of your Bankroll)
1:00 PM EST
JA Happ has lost 30 of the last 40 games when pitching in the 1[SUP]st[/SUP] half of the season and he has lost 11 of the last 17 day games. JA Happ has lost 12 of the last 16 home games when the total posted is between 8.5 and 10 runs and he has an ERA of 6.24 vs. Los Angeles over his career.
- Play Cleveland +110 over Tampa Bay----Top Play (Risk 8% of your Bankroll)
7:00 PM EST
Erik Bedard has lost 22 of the last 25 games when the total posted is between 8 and 8.5 runs and he has lost 22 of the last 31 games when pitching with five or six days of rest. Erik Bedard has lost 6 of the last 8 games when pitching on a Saturday and he has an ERA of 9.39 in home games this season.
- Play New York Yankees +130 over Milwaukee----Top Play (Risk 8% of your Bankroll)
7:00 PM EST
CC Sabathia has won 45 of the last 76 games when pitching in the month of May and he has won 34 of the last 41 inter-league games. CC Sabathia has won 94 of the last 150 games when pitching with five or six days of rest and he has won 30 of the last 48 night games.
Here are the rest of his baseball, hockey and basketball plays for today...
Baseball
Chicago Cubs +126 over Atlanta Braves
St. Louis -110 over Pittsburgh Pirates
LA Dodgers -150 over SF Giants
Hockey
Boston -183 over Montreal
Anaheim + LA UNDER 5
Boston + Montreal OVER 5
Basketball
Brooklyn +1.5 over MIami
Brooklyn + MIami UNDER 189
Spurs + Portland OVER 209
BeatYourBookie
SATURDAY
MLB BASEBALL
10* Play Arizona +115 over Chicago White Sox (MLB TOP PLAY)
Chicago is 24-34 when playing on a Saturday
Chicago is 33-58 when the total posted is between 8 and 8.5 runs
Chicago is 23-31 when the line posted is between -100 to -150
10* Play San Diego +110 over Miami (MLB TOP PLAY)
Eric Stults is 17-8 when the total posted is 7 runs or less
Eric Stults is 9-3 vs. NL East Division Opponents the last three seasons
Eric Stults is 23-13 in night games the last three seasons
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5* Play Chicago Cubs +130 over Atlanta (MLB EXTRA PLAY)
5* Play Texas +110 over Boston (MLB EXTRA PLAY)
SATURDAY
MLB BASEBALL
10* Play Arizona +115 over Chicago White Sox (MLB TOP PLAY)
Chicago is 24-34 when playing on a Saturday
Chicago is 33-58 when the total posted is between 8 and 8.5 runs
Chicago is 23-31 when the line posted is between -100 to -150
10* Play San Diego +110 over Miami (MLB TOP PLAY)
Eric Stults is 17-8 when the total posted is 7 runs or less
Eric Stults is 9-3 vs. NL East Division Opponents the last three seasons
Eric Stults is 23-13 in night games the last three seasons
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5* Play Chicago Cubs +130 over Atlanta (MLB EXTRA PLAY)
5* Play Texas +110 over Boston (MLB EXTRA PLAY)
NBA
Saturday, May 10
Heat plays at different level in playoffs- they shot 57/49% in first two series games, winning by 21-12 points, with Big 3 making 42-81 from floor, and Allen scoring 32 in 54:00 off bench- they outscored Brooklyn 110-79 in second half. Nets are 25-19 vs spread at home this year, but if Garnett doesn't get more productive (2-10 from floor), this will be short series. Six of last nine series games stayed under the total.
Spurs led first two games of series 65-39/70-51 at half; Portland has to be competitive before they can even win a game. Aldridge was just 6-23 last game. Spurs made 12-20 from arc in Game 2, putting seven players in double figures after Parker went off with 33 in opener, but they have lost seven of last nine visits to Rip City, winning last one by a hoop- they've won last four games with Portland overall.
Over is 37-23 in playoffs this season, 6-4 in this round.
Favorites are 21-39 in playoffs this season, 5-5 in this round.
Saturday, May 10
Heat plays at different level in playoffs- they shot 57/49% in first two series games, winning by 21-12 points, with Big 3 making 42-81 from floor, and Allen scoring 32 in 54:00 off bench- they outscored Brooklyn 110-79 in second half. Nets are 25-19 vs spread at home this year, but if Garnett doesn't get more productive (2-10 from floor), this will be short series. Six of last nine series games stayed under the total.
Spurs led first two games of series 65-39/70-51 at half; Portland has to be competitive before they can even win a game. Aldridge was just 6-23 last game. Spurs made 12-20 from arc in Game 2, putting seven players in double figures after Parker went off with 33 in opener, but they have lost seven of last nine visits to Rip City, winning last one by a hoop- they've won last four games with Portland overall.
Over is 37-23 in playoffs this season, 6-4 in this round.
Favorites are 21-39 in playoffs this season, 5-5 in this round.
NHL
Saturday, May 10
Boston got OT goal from rookie AHL callup to even series; team that scored first won all four games. Montreal won eight of last eleven games with Boston, taking won six of the last eight games played here. There were only five power plays in last two games. Montreal is 6-2 in playoffs this spring, 2-2 on road. Boston is 34-12 at home this season; they're 0-8 on power play in series. Over is 5-1-2 in Montreal's playoff games. Nine of eleven Boston goals in this series have come in third period or OT.
Los Angeles won six of its last seven games since being down 3-0 in San Jose series; visitor won all three series games, and last six games overall in this rivalry. Anaheim is 4-0 in Staples building this year, after losing previous five visits here. Ducks were 2-2 on power play in Game 3, after being 1-8 first two games. Over is 5-2-3 in their last ten games, under is 5-1-3 in last nine series games, but 1-3-2 in Ducks' last six games overall. League-wide, totals find the over to be 36-16-12 in the playoffs, 7-4-5 in this round.
Saturday, May 10
Boston got OT goal from rookie AHL callup to even series; team that scored first won all four games. Montreal won eight of last eleven games with Boston, taking won six of the last eight games played here. There were only five power plays in last two games. Montreal is 6-2 in playoffs this spring, 2-2 on road. Boston is 34-12 at home this season; they're 0-8 on power play in series. Over is 5-1-2 in Montreal's playoff games. Nine of eleven Boston goals in this series have come in third period or OT.
Los Angeles won six of its last seven games since being down 3-0 in San Jose series; visitor won all three series games, and last six games overall in this rivalry. Anaheim is 4-0 in Staples building this year, after losing previous five visits here. Ducks were 2-2 on power play in Game 3, after being 1-8 first two games. Over is 5-2-3 in their last ten games, under is 5-1-3 in last nine series games, but 1-3-2 in Ducks' last six games overall. League-wide, totals find the over to be 36-16-12 in the playoffs, 7-4-5 in this round.
StatFox Super Situations – FoxSheets
MLB | CLEVELAND at TAMPA BAY
Play Against – Any team (TAMPA BAY) with a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR’s/start, after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 5 or more earned runs
165-112 over the last 5 seasons. ( 59.6% | 60.2 units )
4-3 this year. ( 57.1% | 0.9 units )
StatFox Situational Power Trends – FoxSheets
MLB | HOUSTON at BALTIMORE
BALTIMORE is 83-51 (+40.2 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB’s/start) over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was: BALTIMORE (4.5) , OPPONENT (4.0)
MLB | CLEVELAND at TAMPA BAY
Play Against – Any team (TAMPA BAY) with a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR’s/start, after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 5 or more earned runs
165-112 over the last 5 seasons. ( 59.6% | 60.2 units )
4-3 this year. ( 57.1% | 0.9 units )
StatFox Situational Power Trends – FoxSheets
MLB | HOUSTON at BALTIMORE
BALTIMORE is 83-51 (+40.2 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB’s/start) over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was: BALTIMORE (4.5) , OPPONENT (4.0)
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs. Silva
By Mark Kern
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs. Silva
Saturday, May 10 – 10:30 p.m. ET
Cincinnati, OH
Matt Brown (20-11) vs. Erick Silva (16-4)
5-Round welterweight bout
Line: Silva -205, Brown +167
Matt Brown and Erick Silva square off against each other as the main event at UFC Fight Night 41 in Cincinnati on Saturday.
Brown has been on a tear as of late, winning his past six matches. In his last win against Mike Pyle on Aug. 17, Brown showed that he is still a threat in the welterweight class. Brown delivered a vicious knockout victory, finishing the match in only 29 seconds with a 10-0 striking advantage. Brown is a terrific fighter that has the ability to be downright vicious with his punches. What makes him even more dangerous is his ability to take a punch as well. He is the type of fighter that wants to turn the match into a brawl. That style will differ from the style of Erick Silva, who is looking to get his opponent to the ground. Silva got back on the winning track in his last match against Takenori Sato on Feb. 15. In that fight, Silva delivered a knockout in only 52 seconds, something completely out of the norm for him. Silva held an 18-0 striking advantage in that victory.
Each of these men will try to force the fight at his own style, but in the end, the favored SILVA is an explosive athlete, and that will help him get the victory.
The 29-year-old Silva has 16 victories in his career, with nine of those wins coming by submission. He also has four wins by knockout and three by decision, showing he can win in a variety of ways. While Silva’s 0.98 takedown average does not compare to Brown’s 1.71 mark, he is much more accurate in his takedown attempts at 67%, compared to Brown’s 46% accuracy. Silva is a gifted athlete that has uses his speed to get his opponents to the ground. He is also in terrific shape, allowing him to go the distance if needed without getting tired. The Brazilian has trained in the past with some elite MMA fighters in Anderson Silva, Jacare Souza, Team Nogueira and Rafael Cavalcante. For Silva to get the win in this match, he has to use his quickness and try and wear down Brown. If Silva allows the fight to turn into a brawl, he is ripe for the big upset.
Brown enters the match with 20 career victories, with 12 of them coming by way of knockout. He also has six victories by submission and just two by decision, as he has gone the distance just four times in his career. It is no secret that Brown loves to get into a fight where a lot of punches are being thrown, and he will have a huge advantage in this area with 3.62 significant strikes landed per minute, compared to only 2.83 for Silva. Another big advantage in this fight for the 33-year-old Brown will be his ability to defend against the takedown, as he has a 67% takedown defense, compared to 62% for Silva. Brown will also have the Cincinnati crowd in his favor, as he grew up in Xenia, OH and currently fights out of Columbus, OH. Both of these fighters, who both stand 6-foot-0 and weigh 170 pounds, are going to be looking to dictate the fight from the very beginning. If Brown is able to turn the match into a striking battle, he will be in great shape to get the win.
UFC Fight Night: Philippou vs. Larkin
By Mark Kern
UFC Fight Night: Philippou vs. Larkin
Saturday, May 10 – 10:00 p.m. ET
Cincinnati, OH
Costas Philippou (12-4) vs. Lorenz Larkin (14-2)
Middleweight bout
Line: Larkin -245, Philippou +197
Two knockout artists square off at UFC Fight Night on Saturday night, as Costas Philippou and Lorenz Larkin enter the Octagon in Cincinnati.
Philippou will look to get back on track, as he enters this fight on a two-match losing skid. In his last fight on Jan. 15, he was knocked out in the first round by Luke Rockhold. In that bout, Rockhold was able to deliver a vicious leg kick to help get the victory. Philippou also lost a tough match to Francis Carmont at UFC 165 on Sept. 21 by way of unanimous decision. While he enters Saturday’s fight with two consecutive defeats, Philippou is still a dangerous opponent with vicious knockout ability. Like Philippou, Larkin has been scuffling with two losses in his past three fights, including when he fell to Brad Tavares by unanimous decision on Jan. 15. He also has a loss to Carmont by way of unanimous decision on April 20, 2013, but preceding that fight on July 14, 2012, Larkin scored a resume-building victory against a terrific fighter in Robbie Lawler.
LARKIN has a chance to show he is ready to make some noise in this weight class, and that will be exactly what he does with a convincing victory against Philippou.
“The Monsoon” Larkin has 14 victories in his career, with eight of them coming by way of knockout, and six of those KOs occurring in the first round. His other six victories come by way of decision. Larkin has shown the ability to drop his opponent with one punch, and he will have an advantage in this matchup in terms of landing significant strikes per minute (3.05 for Larkin, 2.37 for Philippou) and the accuracy of his fists (44% for Larkin, 36% from Philippou). Larkin is also a better punch defender at 64.8% (Philippou is 58%). The 27-year-old out of Riverside, CA does a great job of punching with a purpose, picking the perfect opportunity to deliver his strikes instead of just flailing away. He is also in terrific shape, which allows Larkin to beat on his opponent and wear him down for the victory. In this matchup, he will be going up against a fighter that also likes to throw strikes and has an identical frame of 5-foot-11 and 185 pounds, which should make for a terrific bout.
Philippou has 12 victories in his career, with six of those victories coming by way of knockout. He also has five wins by decision and one by submission. In his last victory against Tim Boetsch on Dec. 29, 2012, Philippou showed his knockout ability by delivering big-time hits to help him win the match in the third round. This wasn’t too surprising considering Philippou was a former pro boxer. Like Larkin, the 34-year-old who hails from Limassol Cyprusk, wants to stand up and throw strikes. While Philippou does not land as many strikes as Larkin, he is a very confident fighter that will come into this match thinking he will win. Both opponents want the exact same style of a boxing match, so it will come down to which one is able to connect with his fists when the opportunity arises. If the match does wind up on the mat, Philippou has a slight advantage in takedown average (0.48 to 0.29), but both men defend takedowns pretty well (Larkin 79%, Philippou 73%).
By Mark Kern
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs. Silva
Saturday, May 10 – 10:30 p.m. ET
Cincinnati, OH
Matt Brown (20-11) vs. Erick Silva (16-4)
5-Round welterweight bout
Line: Silva -205, Brown +167
Matt Brown and Erick Silva square off against each other as the main event at UFC Fight Night 41 in Cincinnati on Saturday.
Brown has been on a tear as of late, winning his past six matches. In his last win against Mike Pyle on Aug. 17, Brown showed that he is still a threat in the welterweight class. Brown delivered a vicious knockout victory, finishing the match in only 29 seconds with a 10-0 striking advantage. Brown is a terrific fighter that has the ability to be downright vicious with his punches. What makes him even more dangerous is his ability to take a punch as well. He is the type of fighter that wants to turn the match into a brawl. That style will differ from the style of Erick Silva, who is looking to get his opponent to the ground. Silva got back on the winning track in his last match against Takenori Sato on Feb. 15. In that fight, Silva delivered a knockout in only 52 seconds, something completely out of the norm for him. Silva held an 18-0 striking advantage in that victory.
Each of these men will try to force the fight at his own style, but in the end, the favored SILVA is an explosive athlete, and that will help him get the victory.
The 29-year-old Silva has 16 victories in his career, with nine of those wins coming by submission. He also has four wins by knockout and three by decision, showing he can win in a variety of ways. While Silva’s 0.98 takedown average does not compare to Brown’s 1.71 mark, he is much more accurate in his takedown attempts at 67%, compared to Brown’s 46% accuracy. Silva is a gifted athlete that has uses his speed to get his opponents to the ground. He is also in terrific shape, allowing him to go the distance if needed without getting tired. The Brazilian has trained in the past with some elite MMA fighters in Anderson Silva, Jacare Souza, Team Nogueira and Rafael Cavalcante. For Silva to get the win in this match, he has to use his quickness and try and wear down Brown. If Silva allows the fight to turn into a brawl, he is ripe for the big upset.
Brown enters the match with 20 career victories, with 12 of them coming by way of knockout. He also has six victories by submission and just two by decision, as he has gone the distance just four times in his career. It is no secret that Brown loves to get into a fight where a lot of punches are being thrown, and he will have a huge advantage in this area with 3.62 significant strikes landed per minute, compared to only 2.83 for Silva. Another big advantage in this fight for the 33-year-old Brown will be his ability to defend against the takedown, as he has a 67% takedown defense, compared to 62% for Silva. Brown will also have the Cincinnati crowd in his favor, as he grew up in Xenia, OH and currently fights out of Columbus, OH. Both of these fighters, who both stand 6-foot-0 and weigh 170 pounds, are going to be looking to dictate the fight from the very beginning. If Brown is able to turn the match into a striking battle, he will be in great shape to get the win.
UFC Fight Night: Philippou vs. Larkin
By Mark Kern
UFC Fight Night: Philippou vs. Larkin
Saturday, May 10 – 10:00 p.m. ET
Cincinnati, OH
Costas Philippou (12-4) vs. Lorenz Larkin (14-2)
Middleweight bout
Line: Larkin -245, Philippou +197
Two knockout artists square off at UFC Fight Night on Saturday night, as Costas Philippou and Lorenz Larkin enter the Octagon in Cincinnati.
Philippou will look to get back on track, as he enters this fight on a two-match losing skid. In his last fight on Jan. 15, he was knocked out in the first round by Luke Rockhold. In that bout, Rockhold was able to deliver a vicious leg kick to help get the victory. Philippou also lost a tough match to Francis Carmont at UFC 165 on Sept. 21 by way of unanimous decision. While he enters Saturday’s fight with two consecutive defeats, Philippou is still a dangerous opponent with vicious knockout ability. Like Philippou, Larkin has been scuffling with two losses in his past three fights, including when he fell to Brad Tavares by unanimous decision on Jan. 15. He also has a loss to Carmont by way of unanimous decision on April 20, 2013, but preceding that fight on July 14, 2012, Larkin scored a resume-building victory against a terrific fighter in Robbie Lawler.
LARKIN has a chance to show he is ready to make some noise in this weight class, and that will be exactly what he does with a convincing victory against Philippou.
“The Monsoon” Larkin has 14 victories in his career, with eight of them coming by way of knockout, and six of those KOs occurring in the first round. His other six victories come by way of decision. Larkin has shown the ability to drop his opponent with one punch, and he will have an advantage in this matchup in terms of landing significant strikes per minute (3.05 for Larkin, 2.37 for Philippou) and the accuracy of his fists (44% for Larkin, 36% from Philippou). Larkin is also a better punch defender at 64.8% (Philippou is 58%). The 27-year-old out of Riverside, CA does a great job of punching with a purpose, picking the perfect opportunity to deliver his strikes instead of just flailing away. He is also in terrific shape, which allows Larkin to beat on his opponent and wear him down for the victory. In this matchup, he will be going up against a fighter that also likes to throw strikes and has an identical frame of 5-foot-11 and 185 pounds, which should make for a terrific bout.
Philippou has 12 victories in his career, with six of those victories coming by way of knockout. He also has five wins by decision and one by submission. In his last victory against Tim Boetsch on Dec. 29, 2012, Philippou showed his knockout ability by delivering big-time hits to help him win the match in the third round. This wasn’t too surprising considering Philippou was a former pro boxer. Like Larkin, the 34-year-old who hails from Limassol Cyprusk, wants to stand up and throw strikes. While Philippou does not land as many strikes as Larkin, he is a very confident fighter that will come into this match thinking he will win. Both opponents want the exact same style of a boxing match, so it will come down to which one is able to connect with his fists when the opportunity arises. If the match does wind up on the mat, Philippou has a slight advantage in takedown average (0.48 to 0.29), but both men defend takedowns pretty well (Larkin 79%, Philippou 73%).
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs. Silva
By Mark Kern
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs. Silva
Saturday, May 10 – 10:30 p.m. ET
Cincinnati, OH
Matt Brown (20-11) vs. Erick Silva (16-4)
5-Round welterweight bout
Line: Silva -205, Brown +167
Matt Brown and Erick Silva square off against each other as the main event at UFC Fight Night 41 in Cincinnati on Saturday.
Brown has been on a tear as of late, winning his past six matches. In his last win against Mike Pyle on Aug. 17, Brown showed that he is still a threat in the welterweight class. Brown delivered a vicious knockout victory, finishing the match in only 29 seconds with a 10-0 striking advantage. Brown is a terrific fighter that has the ability to be downright vicious with his punches. What makes him even more dangerous is his ability to take a punch as well. He is the type of fighter that wants to turn the match into a brawl. That style will differ from the style of Erick Silva, who is looking to get his opponent to the ground. Silva got back on the winning track in his last match against Takenori Sato on Feb. 15. In that fight, Silva delivered a knockout in only 52 seconds, something completely out of the norm for him. Silva held an 18-0 striking advantage in that victory.
Each of these men will try to force the fight at his own style, but in the end, the favored SILVA is an explosive athlete, and that will help him get the victory.
The 29-year-old Silva has 16 victories in his career, with nine of those wins coming by submission. He also has four wins by knockout and three by decision, showing he can win in a variety of ways. While Silva’s 0.98 takedown average does not compare to Brown’s 1.71 mark, he is much more accurate in his takedown attempts at 67%, compared to Brown’s 46% accuracy. Silva is a gifted athlete that has uses his speed to get his opponents to the ground. He is also in terrific shape, allowing him to go the distance if needed without getting tired. The Brazilian has trained in the past with some elite MMA fighters in Anderson Silva, Jacare Souza, Team Nogueira and Rafael Cavalcante. For Silva to get the win in this match, he has to use his quickness and try and wear down Brown. If Silva allows the fight to turn into a brawl, he is ripe for the big upset.
Brown enters the match with 20 career victories, with 12 of them coming by way of knockout. He also has six victories by submission and just two by decision, as he has gone the distance just four times in his career. It is no secret that Brown loves to get into a fight where a lot of punches are being thrown, and he will have a huge advantage in this area with 3.62 significant strikes landed per minute, compared to only 2.83 for Silva. Another big advantage in this fight for the 33-year-old Brown will be his ability to defend against the takedown, as he has a 67% takedown defense, compared to 62% for Silva. Brown will also have the Cincinnati crowd in his favor, as he grew up in Xenia, OH and currently fights out of Columbus, OH. Both of these fighters, who both stand 6-foot-0 and weigh 170 pounds, are going to be looking to dictate the fight from the very beginning. If Brown is able to turn the match into a striking battle, he will be in great shape to get the win.
UFC Fight Night: Philippou vs. Larkin
By Mark Kern
UFC Fight Night: Philippou vs. Larkin
Saturday, May 10 – 10:00 p.m. ET
Cincinnati, OH
Costas Philippou (12-4) vs. Lorenz Larkin (14-2)
Middleweight bout
Line: Larkin -245, Philippou +197
Two knockout artists square off at UFC Fight Night on Saturday night, as Costas Philippou and Lorenz Larkin enter the Octagon in Cincinnati.
Philippou will look to get back on track, as he enters this fight on a two-match losing skid. In his last fight on Jan. 15, he was knocked out in the first round by Luke Rockhold. In that bout, Rockhold was able to deliver a vicious leg kick to help get the victory. Philippou also lost a tough match to Francis Carmont at UFC 165 on Sept. 21 by way of unanimous decision. While he enters Saturday’s fight with two consecutive defeats, Philippou is still a dangerous opponent with vicious knockout ability. Like Philippou, Larkin has been scuffling with two losses in his past three fights, including when he fell to Brad Tavares by unanimous decision on Jan. 15. He also has a loss to Carmont by way of unanimous decision on April 20, 2013, but preceding that fight on July 14, 2012, Larkin scored a resume-building victory against a terrific fighter in Robbie Lawler.
LARKIN has a chance to show he is ready to make some noise in this weight class, and that will be exactly what he does with a convincing victory against Philippou.
“The Monsoon” Larkin has 14 victories in his career, with eight of them coming by way of knockout, and six of those KOs occurring in the first round. His other six victories come by way of decision. Larkin has shown the ability to drop his opponent with one punch, and he will have an advantage in this matchup in terms of landing significant strikes per minute (3.05 for Larkin, 2.37 for Philippou) and the accuracy of his fists (44% for Larkin, 36% from Philippou). Larkin is also a better punch defender at 64.8% (Philippou is 58%). The 27-year-old out of Riverside, CA does a great job of punching with a purpose, picking the perfect opportunity to deliver his strikes instead of just flailing away. He is also in terrific shape, which allows Larkin to beat on his opponent and wear him down for the victory. In this matchup, he will be going up against a fighter that also likes to throw strikes and has an identical frame of 5-foot-11 and 185 pounds, which should make for a terrific bout.
Philippou has 12 victories in his career, with six of those victories coming by way of knockout. He also has five wins by decision and one by submission. In his last victory against Tim Boetsch on Dec. 29, 2012, Philippou showed his knockout ability by delivering big-time hits to help him win the match in the third round. This wasn’t too surprising considering Philippou was a former pro boxer. Like Larkin, the 34-year-old who hails from Limassol Cyprusk, wants to stand up and throw strikes. While Philippou does not land as many strikes as Larkin, he is a very confident fighter that will come into this match thinking he will win. Both opponents want the exact same style of a boxing match, so it will come down to which one is able to connect with his fists when the opportunity arises. If the match does wind up on the mat, Philippou has a slight advantage in takedown average (0.48 to 0.29), but both men defend takedowns pretty well (Larkin 79%, Philippou 73%).
By Mark Kern
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs. Silva
Saturday, May 10 – 10:30 p.m. ET
Cincinnati, OH
Matt Brown (20-11) vs. Erick Silva (16-4)
5-Round welterweight bout
Line: Silva -205, Brown +167
Matt Brown and Erick Silva square off against each other as the main event at UFC Fight Night 41 in Cincinnati on Saturday.
Brown has been on a tear as of late, winning his past six matches. In his last win against Mike Pyle on Aug. 17, Brown showed that he is still a threat in the welterweight class. Brown delivered a vicious knockout victory, finishing the match in only 29 seconds with a 10-0 striking advantage. Brown is a terrific fighter that has the ability to be downright vicious with his punches. What makes him even more dangerous is his ability to take a punch as well. He is the type of fighter that wants to turn the match into a brawl. That style will differ from the style of Erick Silva, who is looking to get his opponent to the ground. Silva got back on the winning track in his last match against Takenori Sato on Feb. 15. In that fight, Silva delivered a knockout in only 52 seconds, something completely out of the norm for him. Silva held an 18-0 striking advantage in that victory.
Each of these men will try to force the fight at his own style, but in the end, the favored SILVA is an explosive athlete, and that will help him get the victory.
The 29-year-old Silva has 16 victories in his career, with nine of those wins coming by submission. He also has four wins by knockout and three by decision, showing he can win in a variety of ways. While Silva’s 0.98 takedown average does not compare to Brown’s 1.71 mark, he is much more accurate in his takedown attempts at 67%, compared to Brown’s 46% accuracy. Silva is a gifted athlete that has uses his speed to get his opponents to the ground. He is also in terrific shape, allowing him to go the distance if needed without getting tired. The Brazilian has trained in the past with some elite MMA fighters in Anderson Silva, Jacare Souza, Team Nogueira and Rafael Cavalcante. For Silva to get the win in this match, he has to use his quickness and try and wear down Brown. If Silva allows the fight to turn into a brawl, he is ripe for the big upset.
Brown enters the match with 20 career victories, with 12 of them coming by way of knockout. He also has six victories by submission and just two by decision, as he has gone the distance just four times in his career. It is no secret that Brown loves to get into a fight where a lot of punches are being thrown, and he will have a huge advantage in this area with 3.62 significant strikes landed per minute, compared to only 2.83 for Silva. Another big advantage in this fight for the 33-year-old Brown will be his ability to defend against the takedown, as he has a 67% takedown defense, compared to 62% for Silva. Brown will also have the Cincinnati crowd in his favor, as he grew up in Xenia, OH and currently fights out of Columbus, OH. Both of these fighters, who both stand 6-foot-0 and weigh 170 pounds, are going to be looking to dictate the fight from the very beginning. If Brown is able to turn the match into a striking battle, he will be in great shape to get the win.
UFC Fight Night: Philippou vs. Larkin
By Mark Kern
UFC Fight Night: Philippou vs. Larkin
Saturday, May 10 – 10:00 p.m. ET
Cincinnati, OH
Costas Philippou (12-4) vs. Lorenz Larkin (14-2)
Middleweight bout
Line: Larkin -245, Philippou +197
Two knockout artists square off at UFC Fight Night on Saturday night, as Costas Philippou and Lorenz Larkin enter the Octagon in Cincinnati.
Philippou will look to get back on track, as he enters this fight on a two-match losing skid. In his last fight on Jan. 15, he was knocked out in the first round by Luke Rockhold. In that bout, Rockhold was able to deliver a vicious leg kick to help get the victory. Philippou also lost a tough match to Francis Carmont at UFC 165 on Sept. 21 by way of unanimous decision. While he enters Saturday’s fight with two consecutive defeats, Philippou is still a dangerous opponent with vicious knockout ability. Like Philippou, Larkin has been scuffling with two losses in his past three fights, including when he fell to Brad Tavares by unanimous decision on Jan. 15. He also has a loss to Carmont by way of unanimous decision on April 20, 2013, but preceding that fight on July 14, 2012, Larkin scored a resume-building victory against a terrific fighter in Robbie Lawler.
LARKIN has a chance to show he is ready to make some noise in this weight class, and that will be exactly what he does with a convincing victory against Philippou.
“The Monsoon” Larkin has 14 victories in his career, with eight of them coming by way of knockout, and six of those KOs occurring in the first round. His other six victories come by way of decision. Larkin has shown the ability to drop his opponent with one punch, and he will have an advantage in this matchup in terms of landing significant strikes per minute (3.05 for Larkin, 2.37 for Philippou) and the accuracy of his fists (44% for Larkin, 36% from Philippou). Larkin is also a better punch defender at 64.8% (Philippou is 58%). The 27-year-old out of Riverside, CA does a great job of punching with a purpose, picking the perfect opportunity to deliver his strikes instead of just flailing away. He is also in terrific shape, which allows Larkin to beat on his opponent and wear him down for the victory. In this matchup, he will be going up against a fighter that also likes to throw strikes and has an identical frame of 5-foot-11 and 185 pounds, which should make for a terrific bout.
Philippou has 12 victories in his career, with six of those victories coming by way of knockout. He also has five wins by decision and one by submission. In his last victory against Tim Boetsch on Dec. 29, 2012, Philippou showed his knockout ability by delivering big-time hits to help him win the match in the third round. This wasn’t too surprising considering Philippou was a former pro boxer. Like Larkin, the 34-year-old who hails from Limassol Cyprusk, wants to stand up and throw strikes. While Philippou does not land as many strikes as Larkin, he is a very confident fighter that will come into this match thinking he will win. Both opponents want the exact same style of a boxing match, so it will come down to which one is able to connect with his fists when the opportunity arises. If the match does wind up on the mat, Philippou has a slight advantage in takedown average (0.48 to 0.29), but both men defend takedowns pretty well (Larkin 79%, Philippou 73%).
StatSystemsSports
Inside the Paint- Saturday
NBA Playoffs Betting News & Notes
The San Antonio Spurs have a life expectancy that rivals Jason Voorhees, Freddy Kruger and Michael Myers. Just when you think they’re going down – BOOM! – they win three straight games by a total of 64 points, snapping an eight-game ATS losing skid with back-to-back-to-back covers. Less than a week ago, basketball bettors were wondering if the Spurs’ tank had finally run dry. The long-time Western Conference gatekeepers limped into a Game #7 showdown with the Dallas Mavericks Sunday. San Antonio, which went on a 17-4 ATS tear for most of March, had failed to cover a spread since April 14 heading into that game but dominated from the tip, cruising to a 119-96 victory as a 7-point home favorite.
Since then, the Spurs have been the most impressive team in the postseason. They’ve taken two straight wins over the Portland Trail Blazers at home – by 24 and 17 points respectively – and put serious distance between them and the other three remaining teams on the futures board in the West. San Antonio entered the second round of the playoffs at +110 to win the conference title and is currently a -150 favorite following Game #2's victory Thursday. It’s safe to say the Spurs are back.
“Not sure if the Spurs actually left,” Ed Salmons, assistant manager of the LVH Superbook in Las Vegas, tells us here at StatSystemsSports.net “They had a tough first-round series with Dallas, who is coached by one of the most underrated coaches in the league. Sometimes a tough first-round series is good for a team.”
San Antonio’s biggest issues during its seven-game struggle with the Mavericks were inconsistent efforts from its three stars – Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobili – and a lack of production from the Spurs’ otherwise reliable role players. San Antonio’s reserves, which averaged a league-best 44.5 points per game in the regular season, put up an average of 35.7 points through the first six games of the opening series. However, the bench is scoring 46.6 points per game in the past three outings, including 50 points in both contests versus Portland.
“Home court advantage, a veteran-laden club with a deep and talented bench and arguably the best coach in the league. I think a return to the finals is imminent,” StatSystems Sports Expert Larry Hertner says of the Spurs. Hertner points to the play of Parker, who has run the Trail Blazers’ younger backcourt out of the gym in the first two games of this conference semifinal. “He has seemingly gotten better with each game,” he says. The 31-year-old veteran point guard dropped 33 points and nine assists on Portland in Game #1 and followed that with 16 points and 10 helpers in Game #2.
On top of that, he’s limited Blazers All-Star Damian Lillard to 17 and 19 points in the first two games after Lillard averaged 25.5 points versus Houston in the first round. San Antonio enters Game #3 in Portland as a 1.5-point road favorite. The Spurs are just 3-10 ATS inside the Rose Garden – one of the NBA’s toughest venues – but the fact they’re the betting chalk tells just how much faith oddsmakers have in San Antonio’s current form.
“They're all but a lock to get to the Western Finals where they will be around a -180 favorite and then the finals versus the Heat, where I see them being a very slight -120 favorite,” Michael Stewart, of CarbonSports.ag, tells us. “Personally I'd make them a much larger favorite versus the Heat, but there's no question in my mind that the public will pound the Heat in a series versus the Spurs if we give them anything with a plus-money in front of them.” It seems like a foregone conclusion that San Antonio will be advancing past Portland, even with plenty of basketball to play in this series. But hey, this is the Spurs we’re talking about.
Betting Notes - Saturday
•Heat plays at different level in playoffs- they shot 57/49% in first two series games, winning by 21-12 points, with Big 3 making 42-81 from floor, and Allen scoring 32 in 54:00 off bench- they outscored Brooklyn 110-79 in second half. Nets are 25-19 versus spread (56.8%) at home this year, but if Garnett doesn't get more productive (2-10 from floor), this will be short series. Six of last nine series meetings stayed under the total.
•Spurs led first two games of series 65-39/70-51 at half; Portland has to be competitive before they can even win a game. Aldridge was just 6-23 (20.6%) last game. Spurs made 12-20 from arc in Game #2, putting seven players in double figures after Parker went off with 33 in opener, but they have lost seven of last nine visits to Moda Center, winning last one by a hoop- they've won last four games with Portland overall.
-- Over is 37-23 in playoffs this season, 6-4 in this round.
-- Favorites are 21-39 in playoffs this season, 5-5 in this round.
Hoop Trends - Saturday
•SAN ANTONIO is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season this season.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 109.5, OPPONENT 92.7.
•PORTLAND is 10-0 OVER (+10.0 Units) revenging 2 straight losses versus opponent of 10 points or more this season.
The average score was PORTLAND 109.1, OPPONENT 105.4.
•PORTLAND is 3-16 (-14.6 Units) against the 1rst half line versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting <=21 free throws/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PORTLAND 44.3, OPPONENT 53.1.
•SAN ANTONIO is 25-7 UNDER (+17.3 Units) the 1rst half total versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game this season.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 53.1, OPPONENT 44.5.
•TERRY STOTTS is 7-22 ATS (-17.2 Units) after allowing 105 points or more 2 straight games as the coach of PORTLAND.
The average score was STOTTS 101.9, OPPONENT 105.3.
Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play On - Road favorites (SAN ANTONIO) - good 3PT shooting team (>=36.5%) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%), off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more, in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game) after 42+ games.
(76-36 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.9%, +36.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (86-26 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 4.8
The average score in these games was: Team 103, Opponent 95.7 (Average point differential = +7.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 36 (33% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (16-7).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (47-21).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (203-173).
___________________________________________
Inside the Paint- Saturday
NBA Playoffs Betting News & Notes
The San Antonio Spurs have a life expectancy that rivals Jason Voorhees, Freddy Kruger and Michael Myers. Just when you think they’re going down – BOOM! – they win three straight games by a total of 64 points, snapping an eight-game ATS losing skid with back-to-back-to-back covers. Less than a week ago, basketball bettors were wondering if the Spurs’ tank had finally run dry. The long-time Western Conference gatekeepers limped into a Game #7 showdown with the Dallas Mavericks Sunday. San Antonio, which went on a 17-4 ATS tear for most of March, had failed to cover a spread since April 14 heading into that game but dominated from the tip, cruising to a 119-96 victory as a 7-point home favorite.
Since then, the Spurs have been the most impressive team in the postseason. They’ve taken two straight wins over the Portland Trail Blazers at home – by 24 and 17 points respectively – and put serious distance between them and the other three remaining teams on the futures board in the West. San Antonio entered the second round of the playoffs at +110 to win the conference title and is currently a -150 favorite following Game #2's victory Thursday. It’s safe to say the Spurs are back.
“Not sure if the Spurs actually left,” Ed Salmons, assistant manager of the LVH Superbook in Las Vegas, tells us here at StatSystemsSports.net “They had a tough first-round series with Dallas, who is coached by one of the most underrated coaches in the league. Sometimes a tough first-round series is good for a team.”
San Antonio’s biggest issues during its seven-game struggle with the Mavericks were inconsistent efforts from its three stars – Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobili – and a lack of production from the Spurs’ otherwise reliable role players. San Antonio’s reserves, which averaged a league-best 44.5 points per game in the regular season, put up an average of 35.7 points through the first six games of the opening series. However, the bench is scoring 46.6 points per game in the past three outings, including 50 points in both contests versus Portland.
“Home court advantage, a veteran-laden club with a deep and talented bench and arguably the best coach in the league. I think a return to the finals is imminent,” StatSystems Sports Expert Larry Hertner says of the Spurs. Hertner points to the play of Parker, who has run the Trail Blazers’ younger backcourt out of the gym in the first two games of this conference semifinal. “He has seemingly gotten better with each game,” he says. The 31-year-old veteran point guard dropped 33 points and nine assists on Portland in Game #1 and followed that with 16 points and 10 helpers in Game #2.
On top of that, he’s limited Blazers All-Star Damian Lillard to 17 and 19 points in the first two games after Lillard averaged 25.5 points versus Houston in the first round. San Antonio enters Game #3 in Portland as a 1.5-point road favorite. The Spurs are just 3-10 ATS inside the Rose Garden – one of the NBA’s toughest venues – but the fact they’re the betting chalk tells just how much faith oddsmakers have in San Antonio’s current form.
“They're all but a lock to get to the Western Finals where they will be around a -180 favorite and then the finals versus the Heat, where I see them being a very slight -120 favorite,” Michael Stewart, of CarbonSports.ag, tells us. “Personally I'd make them a much larger favorite versus the Heat, but there's no question in my mind that the public will pound the Heat in a series versus the Spurs if we give them anything with a plus-money in front of them.” It seems like a foregone conclusion that San Antonio will be advancing past Portland, even with plenty of basketball to play in this series. But hey, this is the Spurs we’re talking about.
Betting Notes - Saturday
•Heat plays at different level in playoffs- they shot 57/49% in first two series games, winning by 21-12 points, with Big 3 making 42-81 from floor, and Allen scoring 32 in 54:00 off bench- they outscored Brooklyn 110-79 in second half. Nets are 25-19 versus spread (56.8%) at home this year, but if Garnett doesn't get more productive (2-10 from floor), this will be short series. Six of last nine series meetings stayed under the total.
•Spurs led first two games of series 65-39/70-51 at half; Portland has to be competitive before they can even win a game. Aldridge was just 6-23 (20.6%) last game. Spurs made 12-20 from arc in Game #2, putting seven players in double figures after Parker went off with 33 in opener, but they have lost seven of last nine visits to Moda Center, winning last one by a hoop- they've won last four games with Portland overall.
-- Over is 37-23 in playoffs this season, 6-4 in this round.
-- Favorites are 21-39 in playoffs this season, 5-5 in this round.
Hoop Trends - Saturday
•SAN ANTONIO is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season this season.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 109.5, OPPONENT 92.7.
•PORTLAND is 10-0 OVER (+10.0 Units) revenging 2 straight losses versus opponent of 10 points or more this season.
The average score was PORTLAND 109.1, OPPONENT 105.4.
•PORTLAND is 3-16 (-14.6 Units) against the 1rst half line versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting <=21 free throws/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PORTLAND 44.3, OPPONENT 53.1.
•SAN ANTONIO is 25-7 UNDER (+17.3 Units) the 1rst half total versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game this season.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 53.1, OPPONENT 44.5.
•TERRY STOTTS is 7-22 ATS (-17.2 Units) after allowing 105 points or more 2 straight games as the coach of PORTLAND.
The average score was STOTTS 101.9, OPPONENT 105.3.
Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play On - Road favorites (SAN ANTONIO) - good 3PT shooting team (>=36.5%) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%), off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more, in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game) after 42+ games.
(76-36 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.9%, +36.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (86-26 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 4.8
The average score in these games was: Team 103, Opponent 95.7 (Average point differential = +7.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 36 (33% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (16-7).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (47-21).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (203-173).
___________________________________________
SPORTS WAGERS
NHL Playoffs - Game 5
Montreal +167 over BOSTON
OT included. Line is way too high. Every game of this series has been close with both clubs having an equal chance of winning in every single game so far. The scoring chances have been equal, the shots on net have been very close and both goaltenders have been outstanding. Neither team has been able to win two in a row in this series and while the Bruins are certainly capable of winning this pivotal game in Boston, so, too, are the Canadiens.
There really isn’t much more to say about this game that hasn’t already been said. We’re all about value and anyone with any sense at all knows that Montreal is very capable of winning here, especially with a goaltender that can steal a game on his own. Tuukka Rask can also steal a game but the difference is that Rask and the B’s aren’t taking back a big tag like the one offered here on the Habs. Montreal has won three of four road games in these playoffs and they offer up too much value to pass up on here.
NHL Playoffs - Game 5
Montreal +167 over BOSTON
OT included. Line is way too high. Every game of this series has been close with both clubs having an equal chance of winning in every single game so far. The scoring chances have been equal, the shots on net have been very close and both goaltenders have been outstanding. Neither team has been able to win two in a row in this series and while the Bruins are certainly capable of winning this pivotal game in Boston, so, too, are the Canadiens.
There really isn’t much more to say about this game that hasn’t already been said. We’re all about value and anyone with any sense at all knows that Montreal is very capable of winning here, especially with a goaltender that can steal a game on his own. Tuukka Rask can also steal a game but the difference is that Rask and the B’s aren’t taking back a big tag like the one offered here on the Habs. Montreal has won three of four road games in these playoffs and they offer up too much value to pass up on here.
SPORTS WAGERS
Washington @ OAKLAND
OAKLAND/Washington under 7 -109
The Nationals made Tommy Milone look like Steve Carlton last night and got whacked 8-0. After scoring just 12 runs over their past six games, the Nats must now face Sonny Gray. Gray is 4-1 with a 1.91 ERA. He’s whiffed 40 and walked 16 in 47 frames and his groundball rate of 56% is among the elite marks in the league. Gray’s second half skills last year were strong across the board, where the numbers say he was a star, if not yet an All-Star. He's young, he's good, and his ERA ever since he burst onto the scene is fully supported by his xERA. Strikeout/ground ball combo is a real plus and it sure doesn’t hurt that both Ryan Zimmerman and Bryce Harper are on the rack.
Tanner Roarke went 7-1 with a 1.51 ERA in 54 innings for the Nats last season. It was a sterling debut from this former 25th round pick as he bounced between the rotation and the pen. Right-handed bats couldn't even manage ONE hit against his slider the 141 times he threw it. Roarke’s 4.17 ERA this season is the result of one really bad start. Prior to that, Roarke had a 2.76 ERA and 1.16 WHIP after 33 innings. Roarke has struck out 31 in 37 frames, he has walked just 10 and his swinging strike rate of 15% in five of his six starts is further proof that he’s as good as his numbers say he is. Two outstanding young pitchers in an extreme pitcher’s park is very likely going to keep this one under the total.
Miami @ SAN DIEGO
Miami -108 over SAN DIEGO
The Padres surprised everyone last night by whacking Jose Fernandez and the Marlins 10-1 but chances are the Padres go back to being the lame hitting team that they are here. The Padres lineup consists of four players hitting under .186. San Diego is last in the majors in runs scored and team batting average. The 81 walks they’ve drawn is the worst mark in the NL and second worst mark in the league and the 35 double plays they’ve hit into is also one of the worst marks in the league. The Padres will now face one of the most undervalued pitchers in the game in Nathan Eovaldi. Eovaldi was virtually unhittable in April (2.58 ERA, 1.02 WHIP) and those marks came with full skill support that includes 8.2K/9, 1.2BB/9, a 56% groundball rate and a WHIP of 0.99. Eovaldi’s 96-mph average four-seam velocity was the highest in the NL. This kid has figured it out big time and with his pure raw stuff we’ll keep riding him at prices like this in situations like this.
Meanwhile Eric Stults is a fraction of the pitcher that Eovaldi is. Stults’ is the epitome of a lefty soft-tosser. His four-pitch mix makes up for his 87-mph fastball but it's pinpoint control that makes him (barely) worth betting on when he’s a big dog. As a small dog or favorite, he’s one to avoid. In 33 innings, Stults’ has 15 strikeouts and a groundball/fly-ball split of 41%/33%. Over his last three starts, Stults’ line-drive rate was 38%. This is a guy that has to hope that all those balls put in play are hit right at someone. He’s also the type of pitcher that does not have the ability to get out of jams on his own. His 5.40 ERA and 1.77 WHIP are a direct reflection of his poor skills that must rely on luck to succeed. If Jose Fernandez was -130 over Tyson Ross last night, Nathan Eovaldi should be -150 over Eric Stults today but he’s not close to being so. That’s value.
L.A. Angels @ TORONTO
L.A. Angels +106 over TORONTO
1:05 PM EST. It’s sunny and warm in Toronto today, which means the Rogers Center roof will be open (although not confirmed) for the first time this season and that’s bad news for Blue Jays lefty, J.A. Happ. Happ made his first start of the year on Monday, throwing five scoreless innings but it’s all a mirage, as he walked four Phillies while striking out only two. He’s worked four innings out of the pen this season over three appearances in which he’s walked five and struck out four. Overall, covering 9 innings between three relief appearances and one start, Happ has walked 9, struck out 6 and has a WHIP of 1.61. Happ's ERA (1.93) should begin correcting towards his xERA (5.95) beginning with this afternoon's tilt with the Angels. Happ is coming off of a rough season in 2013 (4.56 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 4.2BB/9 in 93 innings) and is a fly ball pitcher with shaky control in a tough home hitters park, that becomes tougher when the roof is open.
Tyler Skaggs is also a risk and if he were favored today we might be playing the Blue Jays but he’s not. Skaggs went 2-3 with a 5.12 ERA in 39 innings for the Diamondbacks last year. He showed flashes of brilliance, but dominant start/disaster start split highlight his current feast-or-famine ways. Skaggs is still just 22, he still has the potential for a bright future and he’s still very much a work in progress. This year, he’s had four quality starts in six attempts. The Halos are 5-1 in Skaggs’ six starts and he’s pitched into the seventh inning or beyond in four in four of them. Blue Jays hitters have never seen Skaggs (with the exception of Jose Reyes 0-2 and Dioner Navvaro 1-4) and that, too, works to Skaggs’ advantage. Fading Happ is the real play here, as he’s just far too erratic to trust or invest in as a favorite.
Houston @ BALTIMORE
Houston +152 over BALTIMORE
Colin McHugh has 23 strikeouts and just four walks issued in 19 frames since being called up. His 2.94 ERA is supported by his exact same xERA of 2.94. He also has a strong 0.88 WHIP. McHugh brings consistent, solid performances and command of a deep arsenal to the table, so he could definitely stick around in the rotation for some time. Yeah, he may get whacked here because the sample size is way too small to make any projections but one thing we know for sure is that Miguel Gonzalez of the Orioles cannot be priced in this range over anyone.
Gonzalez went 11-8 with a 3.78 ERA in 171 innings for the O’s last season. Gonzalez is not a young prospect, as TJS in 2009 ate up two years of his career. He earned a promotion with a 1.61 ERA in AAA in 2012 but MLB is another matter. Career xERA of 4.74 reflects his pedestrian skills. Gonzalez doesn't miss enough bats or get enough groundballs to keep the ball in the park. Take this projection seriously because Gonzalez is the type of pitcher that will throw as many disasters as he will quality outings. He comes into this start with a 5.23 ERA and 1.53 WHIP after six starts covering 31 innings. One third of those starts were quality. The Orioles have dropped Gonzalez’s last three starts by scores of 9-3, 9-3 and 5-2 and a similar result here would be no surprise. Again, Gonzalez should never be in this price range and if we lose this one, so be it but we’ll continue to play the value and let the chips fall where they may.
Washington @ OAKLAND
OAKLAND/Washington under 7 -109
The Nationals made Tommy Milone look like Steve Carlton last night and got whacked 8-0. After scoring just 12 runs over their past six games, the Nats must now face Sonny Gray. Gray is 4-1 with a 1.91 ERA. He’s whiffed 40 and walked 16 in 47 frames and his groundball rate of 56% is among the elite marks in the league. Gray’s second half skills last year were strong across the board, where the numbers say he was a star, if not yet an All-Star. He's young, he's good, and his ERA ever since he burst onto the scene is fully supported by his xERA. Strikeout/ground ball combo is a real plus and it sure doesn’t hurt that both Ryan Zimmerman and Bryce Harper are on the rack.
Tanner Roarke went 7-1 with a 1.51 ERA in 54 innings for the Nats last season. It was a sterling debut from this former 25th round pick as he bounced between the rotation and the pen. Right-handed bats couldn't even manage ONE hit against his slider the 141 times he threw it. Roarke’s 4.17 ERA this season is the result of one really bad start. Prior to that, Roarke had a 2.76 ERA and 1.16 WHIP after 33 innings. Roarke has struck out 31 in 37 frames, he has walked just 10 and his swinging strike rate of 15% in five of his six starts is further proof that he’s as good as his numbers say he is. Two outstanding young pitchers in an extreme pitcher’s park is very likely going to keep this one under the total.
Miami @ SAN DIEGO
Miami -108 over SAN DIEGO
The Padres surprised everyone last night by whacking Jose Fernandez and the Marlins 10-1 but chances are the Padres go back to being the lame hitting team that they are here. The Padres lineup consists of four players hitting under .186. San Diego is last in the majors in runs scored and team batting average. The 81 walks they’ve drawn is the worst mark in the NL and second worst mark in the league and the 35 double plays they’ve hit into is also one of the worst marks in the league. The Padres will now face one of the most undervalued pitchers in the game in Nathan Eovaldi. Eovaldi was virtually unhittable in April (2.58 ERA, 1.02 WHIP) and those marks came with full skill support that includes 8.2K/9, 1.2BB/9, a 56% groundball rate and a WHIP of 0.99. Eovaldi’s 96-mph average four-seam velocity was the highest in the NL. This kid has figured it out big time and with his pure raw stuff we’ll keep riding him at prices like this in situations like this.
Meanwhile Eric Stults is a fraction of the pitcher that Eovaldi is. Stults’ is the epitome of a lefty soft-tosser. His four-pitch mix makes up for his 87-mph fastball but it's pinpoint control that makes him (barely) worth betting on when he’s a big dog. As a small dog or favorite, he’s one to avoid. In 33 innings, Stults’ has 15 strikeouts and a groundball/fly-ball split of 41%/33%. Over his last three starts, Stults’ line-drive rate was 38%. This is a guy that has to hope that all those balls put in play are hit right at someone. He’s also the type of pitcher that does not have the ability to get out of jams on his own. His 5.40 ERA and 1.77 WHIP are a direct reflection of his poor skills that must rely on luck to succeed. If Jose Fernandez was -130 over Tyson Ross last night, Nathan Eovaldi should be -150 over Eric Stults today but he’s not close to being so. That’s value.
L.A. Angels @ TORONTO
L.A. Angels +106 over TORONTO
1:05 PM EST. It’s sunny and warm in Toronto today, which means the Rogers Center roof will be open (although not confirmed) for the first time this season and that’s bad news for Blue Jays lefty, J.A. Happ. Happ made his first start of the year on Monday, throwing five scoreless innings but it’s all a mirage, as he walked four Phillies while striking out only two. He’s worked four innings out of the pen this season over three appearances in which he’s walked five and struck out four. Overall, covering 9 innings between three relief appearances and one start, Happ has walked 9, struck out 6 and has a WHIP of 1.61. Happ's ERA (1.93) should begin correcting towards his xERA (5.95) beginning with this afternoon's tilt with the Angels. Happ is coming off of a rough season in 2013 (4.56 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 4.2BB/9 in 93 innings) and is a fly ball pitcher with shaky control in a tough home hitters park, that becomes tougher when the roof is open.
Tyler Skaggs is also a risk and if he were favored today we might be playing the Blue Jays but he’s not. Skaggs went 2-3 with a 5.12 ERA in 39 innings for the Diamondbacks last year. He showed flashes of brilliance, but dominant start/disaster start split highlight his current feast-or-famine ways. Skaggs is still just 22, he still has the potential for a bright future and he’s still very much a work in progress. This year, he’s had four quality starts in six attempts. The Halos are 5-1 in Skaggs’ six starts and he’s pitched into the seventh inning or beyond in four in four of them. Blue Jays hitters have never seen Skaggs (with the exception of Jose Reyes 0-2 and Dioner Navvaro 1-4) and that, too, works to Skaggs’ advantage. Fading Happ is the real play here, as he’s just far too erratic to trust or invest in as a favorite.
Houston @ BALTIMORE
Houston +152 over BALTIMORE
Colin McHugh has 23 strikeouts and just four walks issued in 19 frames since being called up. His 2.94 ERA is supported by his exact same xERA of 2.94. He also has a strong 0.88 WHIP. McHugh brings consistent, solid performances and command of a deep arsenal to the table, so he could definitely stick around in the rotation for some time. Yeah, he may get whacked here because the sample size is way too small to make any projections but one thing we know for sure is that Miguel Gonzalez of the Orioles cannot be priced in this range over anyone.
Gonzalez went 11-8 with a 3.78 ERA in 171 innings for the O’s last season. Gonzalez is not a young prospect, as TJS in 2009 ate up two years of his career. He earned a promotion with a 1.61 ERA in AAA in 2012 but MLB is another matter. Career xERA of 4.74 reflects his pedestrian skills. Gonzalez doesn't miss enough bats or get enough groundballs to keep the ball in the park. Take this projection seriously because Gonzalez is the type of pitcher that will throw as many disasters as he will quality outings. He comes into this start with a 5.23 ERA and 1.53 WHIP after six starts covering 31 innings. One third of those starts were quality. The Orioles have dropped Gonzalez’s last three starts by scores of 9-3, 9-3 and 5-2 and a similar result here would be no surprise. Again, Gonzalez should never be in this price range and if we lose this one, so be it but we’ll continue to play the value and let the chips fall where they may.
