BILL MARZANO
I really like the total in this game and I think it will play Over the posted 187 points...both teams are well rested for this game and I think both teams will shoot the ball well in this game...the Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Milwaukee...9-1 in the last 10 meetings...7-1 in Hawks last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record...8-1 in Bucks last 9 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record...Over is the play
I really like the total in this game and I think it will play Over the posted 187 points...both teams are well rested for this game and I think both teams will shoot the ball well in this game...the Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Milwaukee...9-1 in the last 10 meetings...7-1 in Hawks last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record...8-1 in Bucks last 9 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record...Over is the play
SPORTS WAGERS
Atlanta +1.05 over MILWAUKEE
Conventional NBA wisdom says the inferior home team usually wins game three and then loses game four. It’s a popular “system” that has had some success, with the most recent example being Game three of the Lakers/Thunder series. However, the Thunder are miles better than the Bucks and have the record, talent, and coaching to prove it. The Bucks drew a terrible matchup with the Hawks when Miami won their regular season finale and the result has been two straight losses by 10 points in games a neutral observer never really felt they could win. Milwaukee shot 30% from three in game one and 41.1% from the field in game two, not a big surprise considering their main scoring threats since the loss of Andrew Bogut are Brandon Jennings and John Salmons. Jennings, a rookie, shot under 38% on the season and Salmons blew up after a trade, but he is still a career 44% shooter and has never been the main scoring option on a team before. Simply put, the Bucks don’t have the scorers to consistently put the ball in the basket against a super-athletic Hawks team. Smith, Horford, Johnson and Williams are all above average defenders that also finished the season ranked 3rd in offensive efficiency. The Bucks are undoubtedly going to come with immense intensity but once the game slows down as it always does in playoff basketball the Hawks will start to prevail. The beauty of the playoffs is that teams play hard the entire 48 minutes and very rarely does the team with better talent lose. Milwaukee lost it’s only post presence on offense and defense and isn’t worth your cash simply because they’re playing at home. Look for Atlanta to take a stranglehold on the series. Play: Atlanta +1.05 (Risking 2 units).
L.A. Lakers +1.11 over OKLAHOMA CITY
Sometimes it’s not about momentum or who plays better. No, sometimes outside influences have a real impact on the outcome of a game and the Thunder eliminating the Lakers would be a financial disaster for the NBA. Should the Lakers lose here the series would be tied 2-2 and that’s a little too close for comfort for the NBA. A Lakers/Cav’s (Kobe/LeBron) Final would be a financial dream come true for the NBA and sometimes dreams do come true. Kobe Bryant did not get to the free-throw line even once in game three and you can mortgage your home that will not happen again. They breathe on Kobe today and the refs might call a technical. When you take that into consideration and you throw in the Lakers huge size and rebounding advantage over the Thunder and the writing is on the wall for this resilient and determined host. The interesting thing here is that game three started to turn around for the Thunder when Scott Brooks put Kevin Durant on Kobe. If he starts the game that way here, there’s a great chance that Durant gets into early foul trouble because everything is going to be called when Kobe drives the lane. With Durant on the bench for significant minutes, the Thunder have no shot and if Durant is not on Kobe, then he could go off for a ton of points. Either way, it’s a no win situation for the Thunder and again, it can’t be stressed enough how everything is going to be called. It’s tough enough to beat the Lakers but under these circumstances, the NBA and refs make it near impossible. Play: L.A. Lakers +1.11 (Risking 2 units).
San Diego/CINCINNATI over 9 +1.09
Wade LeBlanc gets the start here only because Chris Young is not ready and as soon as he is, LeBlanc will be either in the minors or the last man in the pen. LeBlanc has a decent looking pitching line in his season debut but when you look inside the pitching line it reveals trouble. First, the game was at pitcher-friendly Petco Park and although he allowed just one run in five innings, LeBlanc still surrendered seven hits and two walks for a 1.80 WHIP and a .350 BAA. Then there’s the GB/FO ratio, which saw LeBlanc retire just three outs via the groundball while 10 hitters flew out and most of those were deep. A fly-ball pitcher at Great American Ballpark is a complete disaster waiting to happen. Johnny Cueto is all over the place. In three starts his pitch count has been 109, 110 and 103 and he’s pitched five innings twice and six innings once. He’s walked eight batters while striking out just nine and he’s always pitching from behind in the count. He’s already given up nine runs and has been hit hard every game thus far. In two starts vs the Padres, Cueto is 0-1 with a 7.36 ERA over 11 frames and that’s when he was pitching well. Also consider that the Padres are scoring runs and often turn singles into doubles via the stolen base. In fact, the Padres own a league-leading 18 stolen bases, and have only been caught three times. Play: San Diego/Cincinnati over 9 +1.09 (Risking 2 units).
Seattle +1.00 over CHICAGO (1st 5 innings)
The White Sox bats managed to come alive last night but so what. Every time they’ve come alive this season they’ve slipped right back to nothing the following day and why should we trust today will be different. The South Side is still batting an AL low of .219 and they still have the second worst record in the AL. Freddy Garcia is pitching on eight days rest but he might need eight weeks rest. Garcia has to be considered one of the most hittable and unappealing favorites in the business. He’s already 0-2 with an 8.10 ERA and he’s already walked eight batters in 10 frames. He didn’t make it into the fourth inning in his last start when the Jays got to him for seven runs in three innings. Doug Fister is on a bit of a roll with two straight wins and 1.42 ERA. He has but one start against the White Sox in his career, tossing six shutout innings last season and this season he’s inducing a lot more ground ball outs. White Sox favored here is completely incorrect and with Garcia being a complete stiff we’ll try to eliminate the pens. Play: Seattle +1.00 (Risking 2 units).
KANSAS CITY +1.12 over Minnesota (1st 5 innings)
The Royals have loads of trouble holding onto leads so there’s no reason to play them for the whole game when this choice is based on the starting pitchers. Nick Blackburn faced the Royals a week ago in Minnesota and was rocked pretty hard. He surrendered two bombs and five runs in five innings but received a no-decision. The White Sox also hit him pretty hard and reports are that he’s battling a sore elbow. In three starts thus far, Blackburn has a BAA of .305 and an ERA of 6.05. The Royals have the league’s second best OPS (on-base plus slugging %). Luke Hochevar is 2-0 with a 2.89 ERA in three starts covering 18 frames. He’s faced the Tigers twice and went six solid innings at Target Field last week. No edge here to the Twinkies and chances are pretty strong that the Royals score a few in the first five. Bye, bye Blackburn. Play: Kansas City in the first five innings +1.12 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto +1.33 over TAMPA BAY
In three starts, Jeff Niemann is 1-0 with a 2.93 ERA and that looks pretty sweet on paper. It also looks pretty sweet pitching for the Rays and the result of that is an inflated line here. Make no mistake, Jeff Niemann is an average pitcher at best and he’s been very fortunate thus far. He’s faced the feeble Orioles twice and in his last game he faced the Red Sox at Fenway. In that game at Fenway the Red Sox stranded 11 runners and a bunch of balls just missed going out. In fact, Niemann only retired six batters via groundout while 15 were hit in the air. That’s playing with fire and the Jays can go deep with the best of them. Niemann has just seven k’s in 15.3 frames. It’s also worth noting that Aaron Hill is off the DL and went deep last night. Hill back in the line-up is huge for te Jays and they instantly got to previously unhittable Matt Garza for four runs in the first inning last night en route to a 7-6 victory. Then there’s Ricky Romero. The Rays are 0-2 at home vs lefties and Romero is a good one. He’s had three quality starts, pitching at least seven full in all three. Romero has an eye-opening 0.74 WHIP, a BAA of .143 and an ERA of 1.57. No pitcher in the AL is throwing better than this guy and in terms of value, Romero and the Jays offer it up here. Play: Toronto +1.33 (Risking 2 units).
Passing NHL
Atlanta +1.05 over MILWAUKEE
Conventional NBA wisdom says the inferior home team usually wins game three and then loses game four. It’s a popular “system” that has had some success, with the most recent example being Game three of the Lakers/Thunder series. However, the Thunder are miles better than the Bucks and have the record, talent, and coaching to prove it. The Bucks drew a terrible matchup with the Hawks when Miami won their regular season finale and the result has been two straight losses by 10 points in games a neutral observer never really felt they could win. Milwaukee shot 30% from three in game one and 41.1% from the field in game two, not a big surprise considering their main scoring threats since the loss of Andrew Bogut are Brandon Jennings and John Salmons. Jennings, a rookie, shot under 38% on the season and Salmons blew up after a trade, but he is still a career 44% shooter and has never been the main scoring option on a team before. Simply put, the Bucks don’t have the scorers to consistently put the ball in the basket against a super-athletic Hawks team. Smith, Horford, Johnson and Williams are all above average defenders that also finished the season ranked 3rd in offensive efficiency. The Bucks are undoubtedly going to come with immense intensity but once the game slows down as it always does in playoff basketball the Hawks will start to prevail. The beauty of the playoffs is that teams play hard the entire 48 minutes and very rarely does the team with better talent lose. Milwaukee lost it’s only post presence on offense and defense and isn’t worth your cash simply because they’re playing at home. Look for Atlanta to take a stranglehold on the series. Play: Atlanta +1.05 (Risking 2 units).
L.A. Lakers +1.11 over OKLAHOMA CITY
Sometimes it’s not about momentum or who plays better. No, sometimes outside influences have a real impact on the outcome of a game and the Thunder eliminating the Lakers would be a financial disaster for the NBA. Should the Lakers lose here the series would be tied 2-2 and that’s a little too close for comfort for the NBA. A Lakers/Cav’s (Kobe/LeBron) Final would be a financial dream come true for the NBA and sometimes dreams do come true. Kobe Bryant did not get to the free-throw line even once in game three and you can mortgage your home that will not happen again. They breathe on Kobe today and the refs might call a technical. When you take that into consideration and you throw in the Lakers huge size and rebounding advantage over the Thunder and the writing is on the wall for this resilient and determined host. The interesting thing here is that game three started to turn around for the Thunder when Scott Brooks put Kevin Durant on Kobe. If he starts the game that way here, there’s a great chance that Durant gets into early foul trouble because everything is going to be called when Kobe drives the lane. With Durant on the bench for significant minutes, the Thunder have no shot and if Durant is not on Kobe, then he could go off for a ton of points. Either way, it’s a no win situation for the Thunder and again, it can’t be stressed enough how everything is going to be called. It’s tough enough to beat the Lakers but under these circumstances, the NBA and refs make it near impossible. Play: L.A. Lakers +1.11 (Risking 2 units).
San Diego/CINCINNATI over 9 +1.09
Wade LeBlanc gets the start here only because Chris Young is not ready and as soon as he is, LeBlanc will be either in the minors or the last man in the pen. LeBlanc has a decent looking pitching line in his season debut but when you look inside the pitching line it reveals trouble. First, the game was at pitcher-friendly Petco Park and although he allowed just one run in five innings, LeBlanc still surrendered seven hits and two walks for a 1.80 WHIP and a .350 BAA. Then there’s the GB/FO ratio, which saw LeBlanc retire just three outs via the groundball while 10 hitters flew out and most of those were deep. A fly-ball pitcher at Great American Ballpark is a complete disaster waiting to happen. Johnny Cueto is all over the place. In three starts his pitch count has been 109, 110 and 103 and he’s pitched five innings twice and six innings once. He’s walked eight batters while striking out just nine and he’s always pitching from behind in the count. He’s already given up nine runs and has been hit hard every game thus far. In two starts vs the Padres, Cueto is 0-1 with a 7.36 ERA over 11 frames and that’s when he was pitching well. Also consider that the Padres are scoring runs and often turn singles into doubles via the stolen base. In fact, the Padres own a league-leading 18 stolen bases, and have only been caught three times. Play: San Diego/Cincinnati over 9 +1.09 (Risking 2 units).
Seattle +1.00 over CHICAGO (1st 5 innings)
The White Sox bats managed to come alive last night but so what. Every time they’ve come alive this season they’ve slipped right back to nothing the following day and why should we trust today will be different. The South Side is still batting an AL low of .219 and they still have the second worst record in the AL. Freddy Garcia is pitching on eight days rest but he might need eight weeks rest. Garcia has to be considered one of the most hittable and unappealing favorites in the business. He’s already 0-2 with an 8.10 ERA and he’s already walked eight batters in 10 frames. He didn’t make it into the fourth inning in his last start when the Jays got to him for seven runs in three innings. Doug Fister is on a bit of a roll with two straight wins and 1.42 ERA. He has but one start against the White Sox in his career, tossing six shutout innings last season and this season he’s inducing a lot more ground ball outs. White Sox favored here is completely incorrect and with Garcia being a complete stiff we’ll try to eliminate the pens. Play: Seattle +1.00 (Risking 2 units).
KANSAS CITY +1.12 over Minnesota (1st 5 innings)
The Royals have loads of trouble holding onto leads so there’s no reason to play them for the whole game when this choice is based on the starting pitchers. Nick Blackburn faced the Royals a week ago in Minnesota and was rocked pretty hard. He surrendered two bombs and five runs in five innings but received a no-decision. The White Sox also hit him pretty hard and reports are that he’s battling a sore elbow. In three starts thus far, Blackburn has a BAA of .305 and an ERA of 6.05. The Royals have the league’s second best OPS (on-base plus slugging %). Luke Hochevar is 2-0 with a 2.89 ERA in three starts covering 18 frames. He’s faced the Tigers twice and went six solid innings at Target Field last week. No edge here to the Twinkies and chances are pretty strong that the Royals score a few in the first five. Bye, bye Blackburn. Play: Kansas City in the first five innings +1.12 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto +1.33 over TAMPA BAY
In three starts, Jeff Niemann is 1-0 with a 2.93 ERA and that looks pretty sweet on paper. It also looks pretty sweet pitching for the Rays and the result of that is an inflated line here. Make no mistake, Jeff Niemann is an average pitcher at best and he’s been very fortunate thus far. He’s faced the feeble Orioles twice and in his last game he faced the Red Sox at Fenway. In that game at Fenway the Red Sox stranded 11 runners and a bunch of balls just missed going out. In fact, Niemann only retired six batters via groundout while 15 were hit in the air. That’s playing with fire and the Jays can go deep with the best of them. Niemann has just seven k’s in 15.3 frames. It’s also worth noting that Aaron Hill is off the DL and went deep last night. Hill back in the line-up is huge for te Jays and they instantly got to previously unhittable Matt Garza for four runs in the first inning last night en route to a 7-6 victory. Then there’s Ricky Romero. The Rays are 0-2 at home vs lefties and Romero is a good one. He’s had three quality starts, pitching at least seven full in all three. Romero has an eye-opening 0.74 WHIP, a BAA of .143 and an ERA of 1.57. No pitcher in the AL is throwing better than this guy and in terms of value, Romero and the Jays offer it up here. Play: Toronto +1.33 (Risking 2 units).
Passing NHL
Bob Balfe
Los Angeles +2
Oklahoma City played their best basketball in Game 3 against a below-average game from the Lakers, yet could have easily lost the game at home. The entire squad had career days and Kobe played as the role of passer instead of being Kobe in the 4th quarter. Look for Mr. Bryant to have a huge game and to take this series back to L.A with a chance to close it out. The inferior home team statistically wins Game 3 and loses Games 4 and 5 in the playoffs. This trend will continue tonight. Phil Jackson will make all the necessary adjustments (particularly applying more pressure on Westbrook and getting Gasol more involved offensively) to walk away with the victory. The Lakers are the significantly better team. Take L.A.
Houston Astros -1.5
The Pirates have been slumping and Houston should inch closer to .500 with a big home win today. Look for Houston to knock Jakubauskus around and pick up a much needed home win.
Los Angeles +2
Oklahoma City played their best basketball in Game 3 against a below-average game from the Lakers, yet could have easily lost the game at home. The entire squad had career days and Kobe played as the role of passer instead of being Kobe in the 4th quarter. Look for Mr. Bryant to have a huge game and to take this series back to L.A with a chance to close it out. The inferior home team statistically wins Game 3 and loses Games 4 and 5 in the playoffs. This trend will continue tonight. Phil Jackson will make all the necessary adjustments (particularly applying more pressure on Westbrook and getting Gasol more involved offensively) to walk away with the victory. The Lakers are the significantly better team. Take L.A.
Houston Astros -1.5
The Pirates have been slumping and Houston should inch closer to .500 with a big home win today. Look for Houston to knock Jakubauskus around and pick up a much needed home win.
