Guaranteed Pick: Scott Rickenbach
Game: Baltimore Orioles at Oakland Athletics Apr 17 2010 4:05PM
Prediction: over
Reason: Scott Rickenbach’s MLB 10* (TOP PLAY) OVER the total in Oakland vs Baltimore @ 4:05 PM ET – Duchscherer vs Guthrie – RATING SYSTEM: Plays range from 6* on up to 10* so this includes 7* and 8* picks as well. 6*, 7*, 8*: most common play ratings with a 9* being a Top Play! 10* plays are a step above a 9* Top Play. The *10* is Scott's highest rated selection!
Not surprisingly, this total dropped to a 7.5 after opening up at an 8. Both of these teams have been “under teams” so far this season. Also, neither teams’ numbers on offense is likely to impress anyone either. That said, why are we on the over here? Two keys! Line value and starting pitchers! To get a 7.5 in an American League afternoon game played in sunny, mild weather is value. To have two inconsistent starting pitchers on the mound adds even more value. Jeremy Guthrie shows a solid 4.05 ERA to the betting markets so far this season. However, he hasn’t been as impressive as you might think. Guthrie has been hit at a .308 clip so far this season and he now must deal with a team that’s given him a lot of trouble in recent meetings. He’s made five career starts against the A’s and the first two went very well but the last three were a different story altogether! Guthrie has been hammered by the Athletics and compiled a 12.27 ERA against them in his past three meetings with Oakland. Keep in mind, the A’s have averaged 5.5 runs per game in their last four games. In fact, Oakland’s last ten overall games have seen them average 5 runs per game. In their last five home games the A’s have averaged 10.4 hits per game. In an afternoon game against a pitcher they’ve pounded often, look for Oakland to enjoy continued success on offense.
For the Baltimore offense, the picture appears much bleaker offensively but we like their chances against Justin Duchscherer of the A’s. The Oakland right-hander missed last season due to an elbow injury and also was treated for clinical depression. Yes, he’s a prior All-Star but we’re not sure he can be trusted yet in terms of his psyche. Keep in mind, the mental aspect of the game is so important for pitchers and we saw this last night with Zach Greinke of the Royals. We used the over in that game as our top play and Greinke had a rough outing and the Twins got the over all by themselves in that game. Greinke had anxiety issues in the past and when he struggles it tends to “snowball” on him as a result. That is what we expect here with Duchscherer as well. The A’s righty had a real smooth outing at Seattle in his last start as he never faced any real trouble. However, in his only other home outing this season he also faced the Mariners and it was a rough start as he allowed five earned runs on seven hits and two walks in less than six innings of work. His ERA in day games in 2008 (his last season in the majors) was more than two full runs higher than what he produced in night games.
Duchscherer is facing an Orioles team that has not hit well in the clutch so far this season but yesterday was essentially their worst performance of the season on offense as they left just two men on base. The O’s had previously left an average of nearly 8 men on base per game. Against Duchscherer, who can get rattled pitching out of the stretch, look for the Orioles to cash in more of their opportunities. And with the A’s scoring well again plus the low total we are dealing with here, it won’t take much to get this game over the total…and that’s value. Play OVER the total in Oakland as a *10* Top Play selection.