John Chang
of bookie assassin
Colorado State Rams +12 over SAN DIEGO STATE AZTECS, 20 dimes
On the surface, one could easily make a case for backing the Aztecs, who are clearly the better overall team. But in this situation, the more desperate team is the side I'll be backing. While the Aztecs are playing for what would probably be a number 2 seed in the NCAA Tourney, the Rams are clinging to a faint chance at an at-large bid in the big dance. Plus, they've had this game circled on their calendars after they were beat by a last-second buzzer beater during the last time these two teams met. In this case, desperation will lead to determination. And while the Aztecs have only lost one home game all season, they've gone a pedestrian 2-3 ATS in their last 5 home games (for an unimpressive 7-7 ATS home record.) Colorado State has paid out backers consistently this season when playing in the visitor's role, posting an 8-3 ATS road mark. The Rams have also covered the number in the last 3 head to head matchups (the last two games were decided by a combined three points.) It's gonna be senior night in San Diego, but let's not forget that Colorado State has seniors too. The most notable of which being Andy Ogide, whose leadership and consistency should be on display in this game. Twelve points may not seem like a lot for San Diego to cover, but this matchup smells like a battle to me. Take the 12.
St. Peters Peacocks -2 over Loyola Greyhounds, 20 dimes
St. Peters is a team that has made magnificent strides this year due to the strong senior presence on the team, and I fully expect them to continue their season today in this MAAC quarterfinal matchup. Loyola is a younger team who could very well be satisfied with the season record they have built so far. St. Peters has the slight edge in the talent department, but it's the notable experience advantage of the Peacocks that I'm puting stock in. St. Peters has covered the number in 8 out of their last 10, and they bring their smothering defense with them into this conference tourney. Let's make the wise choice here with the Peacocks.
RICHMOND SPIDERS -3.5 over Duquesne Dukes, 10 dimes
The Dukes have fizzled out after ripping off 11 straight wins earlier in the season, and even with a 1st round bye of the A10 tourney on the line, I don't expect them to have much luck on the road against Richmond. In fact, they haven't had any luck against the Spiders, as they have dropped their last 10 games in this series and only covered the number twice in those games. These two teams have been going in opposite directions lately, with the Dukes losing 5 out of their last 7 and the Spiders winning 7 out of their last 8. Richmond has clobbered their last three opponents by an average of 15 points. This doesn't bode well for the visitors, especially if Richmond continues to play the solid defense that has landed them a top 40 ranking in this category. We're getting a nice line here with the home team, so let's take advantage. Lay the chalk!
Denver Nuggets +2 over LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS, 10 dimes
You gotta love the streak that the Nuggets have been on since dealing Carmelo Anthony. Every member of the team is not only playing unselfishly, but hustling on defense as well. They have hit the ground running since the trade, and in every game the team cohesion gets even better. The bench players are producing at a high rate, and this added depth is what will push them through to a win and cover tonight at the Staples Center.