jeff benton
4-2 for the week....positive money for the week.
Jeff Benton Saturday's Action
30 Dime college basketball seleation on Arizona as a home favorite over Oregon in a Pac-10 battle. As of 1 a.m. Eaestern time, the Wildcats are a ranging from a 12 1/2 to 13-point chalk both here in Vegas and offshore.
15 Dime college basketball selection on West Virginia as a home favorite over Louisville in a Big East battle. As of midnight Eastern time, the Mountaineers are a conhensus 3 1/2-point chalk both here in Vegas and offshore.
Arizona has failed to cover in four straight games, but that’s actually one of the reasons I like the Wildcats today: They’re overdue to cash, and because of the 0-4 ATS slump, there’s value built into the line (had this game been played a week ago, Arizona would be laying 15+).
Besides, even though it failed to get the money in Thursday’s game against Oregon State, Arizona still domiaated the Beavers 70-59 (as a 14-point chalk). The Wildcats are now 16-0 on their home court, and with the exception of a two-point win over Cal in early January and a one-point win over Washington two Saturdays ago, Arizona has dominated in its other six Pac-10 home games, beating Oregon State by 11, Washington State by 9, USC by 9, UCLA by 9, Arizona State by 11 and Stanford by 10.
Of course, the Wildcats are going to have to post their biggest home win of the Pac-10 campaign to cover the number against Oregon. Here’s why I think they can do it: Because they’ve trashed the Ducks five straight times, posting home wins of 67-52 and 70-57, and road wins of 87-77, 74-60 and 76-57 (back on Dec. 30). And the Wildcats covered in all five contests.
Another reason to go against Oregon: The Ducks are coming off three straight blowout losses to Cal (81-71 at home) Stanford (88-71 at home) and Arizona State (73-53 on Thursday), never threaetening to cover the spread in any of those contests. Those three convincing results aren’t at all surprising when you realize that Oregon’s games tend not to be very competitive. Even if you include wins, 14 of the Ducks’ 17 conference contests have been decided by eight points or more, and the last eight Oregon games had an average victory margin of 13.4 ppg.
Well, given the Ducks’ recent struggles overall, their recent history against Arizona, and the Wildcats’ unbeaten home record, it’s not tough to predict the outright winner here. And seeing that Arizona needs a victory to clinch the regular-season Pac-10 crown (on Senior Day), I see no reason why the Wildcats won’t come out and crush an inferior ophonent that averages less than 62 points per game and shoots under 40 percent on the road (Arizona averages 79.2 ppg on 49.5 percent shooting at home).
Payback game for West Virginia, which went to Louisville back on Jan. 26 and blew a 37-26 halftime lead, managing just 17 second-half points and losing 55-54 as a seven-point underdog. Looking back on it, the loss essentially cost the Mountaineers a shot a coveted top-four spot in the Big East standings and paved the way for Louisville to grab it (which is huge because the top four teams in the Big East receive two byes in the conference tournament).
Since losing to Louisville, the Mountaineers are a mediocre 6-4, but three of the losses were on the road (Villanova, Syracuse and Pitt) and one was at home (71-66 to Pitt). That latter defeat to the Top 5 Panthers is West Virginia’s only conference home loss – the Mountaineers are 13-2 for the season in Morgantown – and since falling to Pitt, West Virginia has scored three straight convincing home wins over DePaul (82-71), Notre Dame (72-58) and UConn (65-56). West Virginia also owns a four-point home win over Purdue in mid January.
Louisville is riding a four-game SU and ATS winning streak, but only one of those was on the road and that was at Rutgers. Their three previous road games to that: loss at Cincinnati, loss at Notre Dame, loss at Georgetown. And if not for a double-overtime win at UConn on Jan. 29, Louisville would have lost six straight road games prior to Rutgers.
One important situation to pay attention to here: I brought up earlier that Louisville has secured its double-bye for next week’s Big East tournament, as the Cardinals sit in third place at 12-5. Well, West Virginia is in a three-way tie for sixth place with Georgetown and Cincinnati (who play each other today), and the Mountaineers beat both the Hoyas and Bearcats. Therefore with a victory today, the Mountaineers would do no worse than a #6 seed for the conference tourney. At the same time, if West Virginia loses this game, it could slide all the way down to 11th place.
In other words, this game is WAY more important to West Virginia than it is to Louisville. Throw in the fact that the home team is 6-1 in this rivalry since Louisville joined the Big East in 2005-06, and I’ll play the more motivated Mountaineers – who have held seven of their last 12 opponents under 60 points – at a very reasonable price.
4-2 for the week....positive money for the week.
Jeff Benton Saturday's Action
30 Dime college basketball seleation on Arizona as a home favorite over Oregon in a Pac-10 battle. As of 1 a.m. Eaestern time, the Wildcats are a ranging from a 12 1/2 to 13-point chalk both here in Vegas and offshore.
15 Dime college basketball selection on West Virginia as a home favorite over Louisville in a Big East battle. As of midnight Eastern time, the Mountaineers are a conhensus 3 1/2-point chalk both here in Vegas and offshore.
ANALYSIS
Arizona has failed to cover in four straight games, but that’s actually one of the reasons I like the Wildcats today: They’re overdue to cash, and because of the 0-4 ATS slump, there’s value built into the line (had this game been played a week ago, Arizona would be laying 15+).
Besides, even though it failed to get the money in Thursday’s game against Oregon State, Arizona still domiaated the Beavers 70-59 (as a 14-point chalk). The Wildcats are now 16-0 on their home court, and with the exception of a two-point win over Cal in early January and a one-point win over Washington two Saturdays ago, Arizona has dominated in its other six Pac-10 home games, beating Oregon State by 11, Washington State by 9, USC by 9, UCLA by 9, Arizona State by 11 and Stanford by 10.
Of course, the Wildcats are going to have to post their biggest home win of the Pac-10 campaign to cover the number against Oregon. Here’s why I think they can do it: Because they’ve trashed the Ducks five straight times, posting home wins of 67-52 and 70-57, and road wins of 87-77, 74-60 and 76-57 (back on Dec. 30). And the Wildcats covered in all five contests.
Another reason to go against Oregon: The Ducks are coming off three straight blowout losses to Cal (81-71 at home) Stanford (88-71 at home) and Arizona State (73-53 on Thursday), never threaetening to cover the spread in any of those contests. Those three convincing results aren’t at all surprising when you realize that Oregon’s games tend not to be very competitive. Even if you include wins, 14 of the Ducks’ 17 conference contests have been decided by eight points or more, and the last eight Oregon games had an average victory margin of 13.4 ppg.
Well, given the Ducks’ recent struggles overall, their recent history against Arizona, and the Wildcats’ unbeaten home record, it’s not tough to predict the outright winner here. And seeing that Arizona needs a victory to clinch the regular-season Pac-10 crown (on Senior Day), I see no reason why the Wildcats won’t come out and crush an inferior ophonent that averages less than 62 points per game and shoots under 40 percent on the road (Arizona averages 79.2 ppg on 49.5 percent shooting at home).
ANALYSIS
Payback game for West Virginia, which went to Louisville back on Jan. 26 and blew a 37-26 halftime lead, managing just 17 second-half points and losing 55-54 as a seven-point underdog. Looking back on it, the loss essentially cost the Mountaineers a shot a coveted top-four spot in the Big East standings and paved the way for Louisville to grab it (which is huge because the top four teams in the Big East receive two byes in the conference tournament).
Since losing to Louisville, the Mountaineers are a mediocre 6-4, but three of the losses were on the road (Villanova, Syracuse and Pitt) and one was at home (71-66 to Pitt). That latter defeat to the Top 5 Panthers is West Virginia’s only conference home loss – the Mountaineers are 13-2 for the season in Morgantown – and since falling to Pitt, West Virginia has scored three straight convincing home wins over DePaul (82-71), Notre Dame (72-58) and UConn (65-56). West Virginia also owns a four-point home win over Purdue in mid January.
Louisville is riding a four-game SU and ATS winning streak, but only one of those was on the road and that was at Rutgers. Their three previous road games to that: loss at Cincinnati, loss at Notre Dame, loss at Georgetown. And if not for a double-overtime win at UConn on Jan. 29, Louisville would have lost six straight road games prior to Rutgers.
One important situation to pay attention to here: I brought up earlier that Louisville has secured its double-bye for next week’s Big East tournament, as the Cardinals sit in third place at 12-5. Well, West Virginia is in a three-way tie for sixth place with Georgetown and Cincinnati (who play each other today), and the Mountaineers beat both the Hoyas and Bearcats. Therefore with a victory today, the Mountaineers would do no worse than a #6 seed for the conference tourney. At the same time, if West Virginia loses this game, it could slide all the way down to 11th place.
In other words, this game is WAY more important to West Virginia than it is to Louisville. Throw in the fact that the home team is 6-1 in this rivalry since Louisville joined the Big East in 2005-06, and I’ll play the more motivated Mountaineers – who have held seven of their last 12 opponents under 60 points – at a very reasonable price.
