Cleveland Insider
NBA
5* Detroit Piston ML -260 over the Philadelphia 76ers
5* Detroit Pistons -6 over the Philadelphia 76ers
5- San Antonio Spurs -13 over the New Orleans Pelicans
5* Sacramento Kings +11 over the Dallas Mavericks
CBB
5* Florida Gators -10 over the Dayton Flyers
5* Arizona Wildcats -3 over the Wisconsin Badgers
NHL
5* Montreal Canadians -185 over the Florida Panthers
5* Anaheim Ducks -110 over the Vancouver Canucks
5* Toronto Maple Leafs -115 over the Detroit Red Wings
NBA
5* Detroit Piston ML -260 over the Philadelphia 76ers
5* Detroit Pistons -6 over the Philadelphia 76ers
5- San Antonio Spurs -13 over the New Orleans Pelicans
5* Sacramento Kings +11 over the Dallas Mavericks
CBB
5* Florida Gators -10 over the Dayton Flyers
5* Arizona Wildcats -3 over the Wisconsin Badgers
NHL
5* Montreal Canadians -185 over the Florida Panthers
5* Anaheim Ducks -110 over the Vancouver Canucks
5* Toronto Maple Leafs -115 over the Detroit Red Wings
Dr. Bob
**Wisconsin (+3) over Arizona
05:49 PM Pacific Rotation: 515
This game is a very good matchup between the nation’s 2nd best defense (Arizona) against the nation’s 4th most efficient offense (Wisconsin). Wisconsin is perhaps the nation’s most balanced offense, as the Badgers can score from inside or outside and against man-to-man defense or a zone defense, which they showed against Baylor. Arizona plays mostly man, which is what the Badgers mostly faced in the Big 10, and Wisconsin should perform relatively well given that the Wildcats were relatively worse defensively against very efficient offensive teams. Arizona played 6 games against teams that rank in the top 15 in compensated offensive points per possession and the Wildcats’ defensive rating in those games, adjusted for site and opposing offensive rating, was 0.035 points per possession higher than their overall rating, which would equate to a bit over 2 points at the expected pace of this game. Arizona lost 2 of those 6 games against elite offensive teams straight up (Oregon and UCLA) and barely won the other 4 with 2 point wins over Michigan and Oregon (at home), a 4 point win over UCLA and a 6 point win over Duke. Overall, the Wildcats had just a +3 points total margin in those 6 games and Wisconsin ranks higher overall than any of those other opponents with an elite offense.
Wisconsin has proven that they can beat good defensive teams, as the Badgers have wins over Florida (my top rated defensive team) and Virginia (#4) while averaging 85 points in two games against Illinois (#10 in defensive efficiency). The Badgers did lose to Ohio State (#3 defense) but they lost that game by just 1 point. I think the matchup favors Wisconsin and my ratings only favor Arizona by 2 points in this game (with a total of 129 points). I also like that Arizona is one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the nation (65.8% ranks 307th out of 351 teams), which gives us a chance if Arizona happens to have a lead late in the game. The reason to make this a Best Bet is a 23-3 ATS Elite 8 situation that applies to Wisconsin. I’ll take Wisconsin in a 2-Star Best Bet at +2 points or more.
Note: The line on Wisconsin is mostly +3 but Pinnacle has +3.5, which is a good indication that it will go to 3 1/2 at other books before game time. I could have waited until the line moved but I wanted to get the analysis out and I suggest waiting to see if the line goes to +3 1/2 since it's doubtful it will go down to +2.5. So, if the line moves to +3 1/2, as I expect it will, then I will grade Wisconsin at +3 1/2 (and if it goes to +2 1/2 then I'll grade it at 2 1/2 - although that's doubtful). If the line stays at +3 then it will be graded at +3.
Opinion - UNDER (134) - Florida (-10 ½) vs Dayton
03:09 PM Pacific Rotation: 514
Dayton’s run is about to end, as the Flyers have run into a team that doesn’t have any weaknesses (except free throw shooting). Dayton is relatively better offensively against better defensive teams, which allowed them to get past Ohio State (a mediocre offensive team), they were lucky to beat Syracuse (7 for 16 3-point shooting against 0-10 for Syracuse), and they were too quick for a depth shy Stanford team. Dayton is not too quick for Florida and the Flyers are going to need some very positive 3-point variance to keep this one close. My ratings favor Florida by 12 points (with a total of 125 ½ points) after incorporating Dayton’s tendency to play better against better teams, so the value lies with the Gators. I have situations favoring both sides in this game and overall the situations slightly favor Dayton. I’d lean with Florida at -10 or less and I’ll consider the UNDER (133 ½) a Strong Opinion.
***Detroit (-6) over PHILADELPHIA
04:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 501
No team wants to be the team that loses to Philadelphia now that the Sixers’ historic losing streak has garnered attention and Detroit is badly in need of a win. Thankfully the Pistons match up particularly well with Philly, as the Pistons rank 2nd in the league in shots taken within 5 feet of the basket while Philadelphia is the 3rd worst in the league defending shots from that range. Detroit has beaten Philly 3 times this season by margins of 15 points, 10 points and 17 points and I don’t see any reason to expect anything different this time. The Sixers have lost 26 consecutive games and they’ve gotten worse since trading away their best player Evan Turner. The Sixers are 0-18 straight up without Turner and the only games they’ve covered the spread in have been as underdogs of 12 points more – mostly with the opponents in a letdown situation. The Sixers are 0-6-1 ATS when getting less than 12 points without Turner and they certainly aren’t catching Detroit in a letdown situation. In fact, Philly actually applies to a negative 19-67-1 ATS subset of a 48-103-2 ATS scheduling situation and they lost to Utah here by 12 points earlier this month in the same situation. My ratings favor Detroit by 7 ½ points and Philadelphia has lost by 7 points or more in 17 of their 18 games without Evan Turner. I’m betting that that trend continues tonight. I’ll take Detroit in a 3-Star Best Bet at -6 or less and for 2-Stars up to -7.
**Wisconsin (+3) over Arizona
05:49 PM Pacific Rotation: 515
This game is a very good matchup between the nation’s 2nd best defense (Arizona) against the nation’s 4th most efficient offense (Wisconsin). Wisconsin is perhaps the nation’s most balanced offense, as the Badgers can score from inside or outside and against man-to-man defense or a zone defense, which they showed against Baylor. Arizona plays mostly man, which is what the Badgers mostly faced in the Big 10, and Wisconsin should perform relatively well given that the Wildcats were relatively worse defensively against very efficient offensive teams. Arizona played 6 games against teams that rank in the top 15 in compensated offensive points per possession and the Wildcats’ defensive rating in those games, adjusted for site and opposing offensive rating, was 0.035 points per possession higher than their overall rating, which would equate to a bit over 2 points at the expected pace of this game. Arizona lost 2 of those 6 games against elite offensive teams straight up (Oregon and UCLA) and barely won the other 4 with 2 point wins over Michigan and Oregon (at home), a 4 point win over UCLA and a 6 point win over Duke. Overall, the Wildcats had just a +3 points total margin in those 6 games and Wisconsin ranks higher overall than any of those other opponents with an elite offense.
Wisconsin has proven that they can beat good defensive teams, as the Badgers have wins over Florida (my top rated defensive team) and Virginia (#4) while averaging 85 points in two games against Illinois (#10 in defensive efficiency). The Badgers did lose to Ohio State (#3 defense) but they lost that game by just 1 point. I think the matchup favors Wisconsin and my ratings only favor Arizona by 2 points in this game (with a total of 129 points). I also like that Arizona is one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the nation (65.8% ranks 307th out of 351 teams), which gives us a chance if Arizona happens to have a lead late in the game. The reason to make this a Best Bet is a 23-3 ATS Elite 8 situation that applies to Wisconsin. I’ll take Wisconsin in a 2-Star Best Bet at +2 points or more.
Note: The line on Wisconsin is mostly +3 but Pinnacle has +3.5, which is a good indication that it will go to 3 1/2 at other books before game time. I could have waited until the line moved but I wanted to get the analysis out and I suggest waiting to see if the line goes to +3 1/2 since it's doubtful it will go down to +2.5. So, if the line moves to +3 1/2, as I expect it will, then I will grade Wisconsin at +3 1/2 (and if it goes to +2 1/2 then I'll grade it at 2 1/2 - although that's doubtful). If the line stays at +3 then it will be graded at +3.
Opinion - UNDER (134) - Florida (-10 ½) vs Dayton
03:09 PM Pacific Rotation: 514
Dayton’s run is about to end, as the Flyers have run into a team that doesn’t have any weaknesses (except free throw shooting). Dayton is relatively better offensively against better defensive teams, which allowed them to get past Ohio State (a mediocre offensive team), they were lucky to beat Syracuse (7 for 16 3-point shooting against 0-10 for Syracuse), and they were too quick for a depth shy Stanford team. Dayton is not too quick for Florida and the Flyers are going to need some very positive 3-point variance to keep this one close. My ratings favor Florida by 12 points (with a total of 125 ½ points) after incorporating Dayton’s tendency to play better against better teams, so the value lies with the Gators. I have situations favoring both sides in this game and overall the situations slightly favor Dayton. I’d lean with Florida at -10 or less and I’ll consider the UNDER (133 ½) a Strong Opinion.
***Detroit (-6) over PHILADELPHIA
04:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 501
No team wants to be the team that loses to Philadelphia now that the Sixers’ historic losing streak has garnered attention and Detroit is badly in need of a win. Thankfully the Pistons match up particularly well with Philly, as the Pistons rank 2nd in the league in shots taken within 5 feet of the basket while Philadelphia is the 3rd worst in the league defending shots from that range. Detroit has beaten Philly 3 times this season by margins of 15 points, 10 points and 17 points and I don’t see any reason to expect anything different this time. The Sixers have lost 26 consecutive games and they’ve gotten worse since trading away their best player Evan Turner. The Sixers are 0-18 straight up without Turner and the only games they’ve covered the spread in have been as underdogs of 12 points more – mostly with the opponents in a letdown situation. The Sixers are 0-6-1 ATS when getting less than 12 points without Turner and they certainly aren’t catching Detroit in a letdown situation. In fact, Philly actually applies to a negative 19-67-1 ATS subset of a 48-103-2 ATS scheduling situation and they lost to Utah here by 12 points earlier this month in the same situation. My ratings favor Detroit by 7 ½ points and Philadelphia has lost by 7 points or more in 17 of their 18 games without Evan Turner. I’m betting that that trend continues tonight. I’ll take Detroit in a 3-Star Best Bet at -6 or less and for 2-Stars up to -7.
gomes nba on fire again
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2Halves2Win last full-game NBA plays:
1* GAME: Pelicans +13 (-110: Risking 1.10 units to win 1.00 units) - TBD (TBDu)
1* GAME: Kings-Mavericks o205.5 (-110: Risking 1.10 units to win 1.00 units) - TBD (TBDu)
1* GAME: Heat -8.5 (-110: Risking 1.10 units to win 1.00 units) - TBD (TBDu)
1* GAME: Pelicans +13 (-110: Risking 1.10 units to win 1.00 units) - TBD (TBDu)
1* GAME: Kings-Mavericks o205.5 (-110: Risking 1.10 units to win 1.00 units) - TBD (TBDu)
1* GAME: Heat -8.5 (-110: Risking 1.10 units to win 1.00 units) - TBD (TBDu)
