Joe Gavazzi Saturday
Saturday, March 29, 2014
CBKB
NCAA Elite 8
Dayton vs. Florida 6:05 ET TBS Memphis, TN
2% Florida (-10)
Three NCAA games and three upsets! Dayton has dispatched Ohio St., Syracuse, and Stanford, three good defensive teams by a combined 13 points, covering by 28 points. Those victories lift the closing season run to 13-2 SU, 11-4 ATS for Dayton. Archie Miller may well be doing the best coaching job in the nation, after the Flyers went a respectable, but unimpressive, 17-14 SU last year. The late season resurgence has been keyed by a 10-man rotation that has bought into sharing their roles and playing with passion, pride and intensity. Three consecutive upsets by a team usually result in a greater line adjustment than what we see in this game. But, because Florida is the No. 1 team in the country, with 29 consecutive wins, a 35-2 SU record, and a trio of double digit wins in this event, there has been no downward adjustment in this price. As well as Dayton has played in this event, their numbers on the defensive end, pale in comparison to those of Defensive Dandy Florida. Entering the Tourney, Florida’s defensive numbers were 58/40/33. They fully qualified as a Defensive Dandy. Dayton was impressive in outshooting Stanford 44 to 38% and authoring a 19-10 Assist/TO ratio. Nine players garnered double digit minutes with the Flyer bench outscoring the Cards, 34-2. An argument can be made that Florida was even more impressive in their workmanlike victory against an even better PAC 12 team, UCLA. The high-scoring Bruins were held to just 68 points, 42% shooting, including just 3/18 from behind the arc. Florida was again impressive on offense knocking down 54% of their shots with a 22-12 Assist/TO ratio. It has been a nice run for the Flyers, who have overachieved by getting to the Elite 8. But, this is a Florida team with 4 experienced seniors, whose Elite 8 appearance is merely a stepping stone to a higher goal. Expect another double digit victory by the No. 1 team in the country.
Wisconsin vs. Arizona (-3) 8:45 ET TBS Anaheim, CA
2% Arizona (-3)
From start to finish, Wisconsin dominated Baylor (69-52). This was a hot Baylor team that appeared primed for the upset. The savvy coaching of veteran mentor Ryan made it appear otherwise. Wisconsin outshot Baylor 52 to 32%, while holding the Bears to 2/15 from the arc. In typical Wisconsin fashion, the Badgers had an 18-10 Assist/TO ratio. Now, Wisconsin has won 3 tourney games against American, Oregon, and Baylor (a trio of divergent styles) by a combined 65 points, with an average coverage margin of 15 PPG. Arizona was not nearly as impressive in fending off Defensive Dandy San Diego St. In the 1st half, led by the interior force that is Josh Davis, the Aztec interior out-rebounded the big frontline of the Wildcats by 10 boards. Even at the end of the game, SD State had a +6 rebounding margin. In the end, it was the Arizona defense (outshot SD State 48 to 39%) and fundamentals of 14/7 TO and 4/10 Assist/TO margin, that won the day for the No. 1 seed. That, and the fact that, Pac 12 POY Johnson went 10 for 10 from the stripe in the closing minutes. And you were worried about the Wildcats’ foul shooting! Today will be an even greater challenge for both of these teams. Fundamentals, in terms of rebounding and defense, will garner the victory for Arizona. The Wildcats hold edges across the boards in those categories with a stop unit that allows 58/38/31 and has an 8.5 rebound margin, far superior to the 1.1 rebound margin of the Badgers. If Zews stays out of foul trouble, it will be a miserable night on the interior for Badgers’ best boy, Kaminsky. The frosh forwards of the Cats, Gordon and Hollis-Jefferson, give Zona an additional advantage in the paint. And the fact that the Wildcats take care of the basketball with only 10.4 TOs per game, negates the Badgers usual advantage in that category. It’s never easy to fade Bo Ryan, especially with his most athletic team ever. In the end, the interior play and defense of Arizona wins the day.
NBA
Atlanta at Washington (-4-) 8:05 ET
3% Washington -4-
Not easy to back the Wizards at home where despite last night’s victory against Indiana (91-78), the Wiz are 11-17 SU, 9-17 ATS including 3-12 as a favorite of 4 or more points. Overall, Washington is 5-6 SU, 3-8 ATS of late as they are locked into the 5-7 spot of the upcoming Playoffs. But those Washington issues pale in comparison to the problems of Atlanta. Having lost 5 straight games in which they have averaged just 87 PPG, Atlanta is on a downward spiral of 6-19 SU, 5-19 ATS. Since the ASB, Atlanta has allowed 107 PPG. Their poor road record of 7-16 ATS as road dog to +9 offsets the play of Washington at home. Washington has a strong history in this matchup covering the pointspread the last 7 times these teams have met. On Sunday, the Hawks problems will be further complicated by the fact that two of their key contributors Korver (back) and Antic (ankle) are questionable for this contest.
Sacramento Kings at Dallas Mavericks (-10) 8:35 ET
3% Dallas -10
Want no part of the Towel Tossing Sacramento Kings who laid down for us last night at OKC losing 94-81. This team allows 104 PPG on the road. At 25-47 SU for the season, they have little reason to play. Key contributor PG Thomas (21 PPG) is questionable for this game with a quad injury. The Mavs have no choice but to play with full intensity. Following a 109-103 hard-fought loss to the Clippers on this court Thursday night, the Mavs find themselves in a dog fight for the final Playoff spot. This despite a 43-30 SU record which would be third best in the Eastern Conference, I reduce the rating on this play just a bit with the knowledge that the Mavs are 12-21 ATS on this court of late. Yet they are 5-3 ATS as a double digit favorite on this court. With no game scheduled for Dallas the next two days, expect a 48 minute effort. Key pointspread factors in this game are that Dallas has been one of the NBA’s most resilient teams going 51-24 ATS long term and 19-10 ATS following a defeat this season. History is on our side as well with the Mavs having gone 17-0 SU, 13-4 ATS in this series at this site. High scoring Dallas has averaged 108 PPG since the break knocking down nearly 50% of their shots.
Saturday, March 29, 2014
CBKB
NCAA Elite 8
Dayton vs. Florida 6:05 ET TBS Memphis, TN
2% Florida (-10)
Three NCAA games and three upsets! Dayton has dispatched Ohio St., Syracuse, and Stanford, three good defensive teams by a combined 13 points, covering by 28 points. Those victories lift the closing season run to 13-2 SU, 11-4 ATS for Dayton. Archie Miller may well be doing the best coaching job in the nation, after the Flyers went a respectable, but unimpressive, 17-14 SU last year. The late season resurgence has been keyed by a 10-man rotation that has bought into sharing their roles and playing with passion, pride and intensity. Three consecutive upsets by a team usually result in a greater line adjustment than what we see in this game. But, because Florida is the No. 1 team in the country, with 29 consecutive wins, a 35-2 SU record, and a trio of double digit wins in this event, there has been no downward adjustment in this price. As well as Dayton has played in this event, their numbers on the defensive end, pale in comparison to those of Defensive Dandy Florida. Entering the Tourney, Florida’s defensive numbers were 58/40/33. They fully qualified as a Defensive Dandy. Dayton was impressive in outshooting Stanford 44 to 38% and authoring a 19-10 Assist/TO ratio. Nine players garnered double digit minutes with the Flyer bench outscoring the Cards, 34-2. An argument can be made that Florida was even more impressive in their workmanlike victory against an even better PAC 12 team, UCLA. The high-scoring Bruins were held to just 68 points, 42% shooting, including just 3/18 from behind the arc. Florida was again impressive on offense knocking down 54% of their shots with a 22-12 Assist/TO ratio. It has been a nice run for the Flyers, who have overachieved by getting to the Elite 8. But, this is a Florida team with 4 experienced seniors, whose Elite 8 appearance is merely a stepping stone to a higher goal. Expect another double digit victory by the No. 1 team in the country.
Wisconsin vs. Arizona (-3) 8:45 ET TBS Anaheim, CA
2% Arizona (-3)
From start to finish, Wisconsin dominated Baylor (69-52). This was a hot Baylor team that appeared primed for the upset. The savvy coaching of veteran mentor Ryan made it appear otherwise. Wisconsin outshot Baylor 52 to 32%, while holding the Bears to 2/15 from the arc. In typical Wisconsin fashion, the Badgers had an 18-10 Assist/TO ratio. Now, Wisconsin has won 3 tourney games against American, Oregon, and Baylor (a trio of divergent styles) by a combined 65 points, with an average coverage margin of 15 PPG. Arizona was not nearly as impressive in fending off Defensive Dandy San Diego St. In the 1st half, led by the interior force that is Josh Davis, the Aztec interior out-rebounded the big frontline of the Wildcats by 10 boards. Even at the end of the game, SD State had a +6 rebounding margin. In the end, it was the Arizona defense (outshot SD State 48 to 39%) and fundamentals of 14/7 TO and 4/10 Assist/TO margin, that won the day for the No. 1 seed. That, and the fact that, Pac 12 POY Johnson went 10 for 10 from the stripe in the closing minutes. And you were worried about the Wildcats’ foul shooting! Today will be an even greater challenge for both of these teams. Fundamentals, in terms of rebounding and defense, will garner the victory for Arizona. The Wildcats hold edges across the boards in those categories with a stop unit that allows 58/38/31 and has an 8.5 rebound margin, far superior to the 1.1 rebound margin of the Badgers. If Zews stays out of foul trouble, it will be a miserable night on the interior for Badgers’ best boy, Kaminsky. The frosh forwards of the Cats, Gordon and Hollis-Jefferson, give Zona an additional advantage in the paint. And the fact that the Wildcats take care of the basketball with only 10.4 TOs per game, negates the Badgers usual advantage in that category. It’s never easy to fade Bo Ryan, especially with his most athletic team ever. In the end, the interior play and defense of Arizona wins the day.
NBA
Atlanta at Washington (-4-) 8:05 ET
3% Washington -4-
Not easy to back the Wizards at home where despite last night’s victory against Indiana (91-78), the Wiz are 11-17 SU, 9-17 ATS including 3-12 as a favorite of 4 or more points. Overall, Washington is 5-6 SU, 3-8 ATS of late as they are locked into the 5-7 spot of the upcoming Playoffs. But those Washington issues pale in comparison to the problems of Atlanta. Having lost 5 straight games in which they have averaged just 87 PPG, Atlanta is on a downward spiral of 6-19 SU, 5-19 ATS. Since the ASB, Atlanta has allowed 107 PPG. Their poor road record of 7-16 ATS as road dog to +9 offsets the play of Washington at home. Washington has a strong history in this matchup covering the pointspread the last 7 times these teams have met. On Sunday, the Hawks problems will be further complicated by the fact that two of their key contributors Korver (back) and Antic (ankle) are questionable for this contest.
Sacramento Kings at Dallas Mavericks (-10) 8:35 ET
3% Dallas -10
Want no part of the Towel Tossing Sacramento Kings who laid down for us last night at OKC losing 94-81. This team allows 104 PPG on the road. At 25-47 SU for the season, they have little reason to play. Key contributor PG Thomas (21 PPG) is questionable for this game with a quad injury. The Mavs have no choice but to play with full intensity. Following a 109-103 hard-fought loss to the Clippers on this court Thursday night, the Mavs find themselves in a dog fight for the final Playoff spot. This despite a 43-30 SU record which would be third best in the Eastern Conference, I reduce the rating on this play just a bit with the knowledge that the Mavs are 12-21 ATS on this court of late. Yet they are 5-3 ATS as a double digit favorite on this court. With no game scheduled for Dallas the next two days, expect a 48 minute effort. Key pointspread factors in this game are that Dallas has been one of the NBA’s most resilient teams going 51-24 ATS long term and 19-10 ATS following a defeat this season. History is on our side as well with the Mavs having gone 17-0 SU, 13-4 ATS in this series at this site. High scoring Dallas has averaged 108 PPG since the break knocking down nearly 50% of their shots.
