Cajun Sports
GAME: Notre Dame Irish vs. Kentucky Wildcats 8:45 PM EST
RATING: 5* (#511) Notre Dame Irish +11
The question was can the Wildcats handle the type and style of play the Mountaineers would attempt to force upon the Cats in their Sweet 16 matchup. As we expected no one associated with our bureau had any doubt Kentucky would defeat the West Virginia Mountaineers but like many others we didnae t expect a thirty-nine point blowout. One of the most incredible facts from that game is Kentucky didnae t need to score a single point in the second half to get the victory as West Virginia scored a total of 39 points for the game while Kentucky scored 44 in the first half. The upset talk has subsided to some degree doubting Notre Dame will be able to pull off what would be a major upset but we do not go by what others say and think. The Irish had a rather slow start to the Big Dance failing to cover against their first two opponents as chalk but dominating their Sweet 16 foe Wichita State as two-point underdogs winning 81 to 70. The Irish used the hot hands of guards Demetrius Jackson and Pat Connaughton how combined to shoot fourteen of twenty-two for thirty-six points in the win. Notre Dame as a team shot fifty-five percent from the floor in their win over the Shockers and they will need a similar performance tonight to advance to the Final Four. On the technical side we find the Irish with solid support across the board. Notre Dame coming off three straight victories are 56-35 ats overall. If the Irish won against the spread in their last game and the total went Over now playing on the road they are 9-2 against the number in this situation. Kentucky has struggled against the spread when coming off an ats win as a favorite and installed as a favorite in the current contest, their record is 40-62-1 ats. If the Cats won su and ats while going Under the posted total and now installed as the favorite they are just 8-20-1 ats. We want to Play AGAINST CBB postseason teams in this price range coming off back-to-back games that went Under the posted total because these teams are 9-20 ats their next time out. We want to Play ON CBB postseason underdogs coming off a su win and going Over as an underdog in their last game because they are 51-32-3 ats. If our underdog is playing away from home during the postseason under the same parameters they are 48-30-3 ats. The net results of the technical elements point to an Irish ats victory on Saturday night. The BTPR Index projects a point advantage of 3.62 points. Our BBMM projects a point differential of 8.08 points with a line range of +10.5 to +13. For those of you that do not follow Cajun Sports on a regular basis the BBMM is projecting a line differential of only 2.92 which means Kentucky is a -2.92 favorite based on the current line of -11 minus the BBMM average of 8.08 points which gives us Kentucky -2.92. Our BSIM Matrix has the Fighting Irish with a 73.81 percent advantage against the spread in tonights contest. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has an offensive-defensive differential of 6.49 with a transitional average of 42.05 and a conversion rate range of 47.68 to 49.03 percent in tonights contest. With solid support from the situational elements as well as the technical side we will take the double-digits with the Irish on Saturday night. Notre Dame
GAME: Arizona Wildcats vs. Wisconsin Badgers 6:05 PM EST
RATING: 5* (#513) Arizona Wildcats -1
The Badgers and Wildcats are set for the rematch of their Elite 8 affair a year ago with Wisconsin holding on in overtime to win by a single point 64 to 63. The Wildcats had last summer to get over that loss and the Basketball Gods have given them a chance for a little redemption. The Wildcats are 11-3 ats in the postseason coming off a su win in their last game. The Cats are 7-1 ats on the postseason road coming off a su win their last time out. We want to Play AGAINST NCAAB postseason underdogs who are coming off a su win and going Over in their last game, 42-69-3 ats. If those underdogs are in the current price range from pickem to -3.5 they are 7-17-3 ats. We want to Play ON road favorites in the postseason coming off three consecutive games where they were installed as the favorite, 67-43-2 ats. Our BTPR Index projects a point advantage of 7.33 points. The BBMM projects a point differential of 6.95 points with a line range of -1 to -3. The BSIM Matrix has the Arizona Wildcats with a 73.52 percent advantage against the spread in tonights contest. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has an offensive-defensive differential of 5.18 with a transitional average of 40.3 and a conversion rate range of 47.84 to 49.91 percent in tonights contest. We know that small chalk (pk to -3.5) playing away from home with a BTPR average of 6.75 or better and a BSIM average of 72.85 percent or higher have been money posting a record of 47-17-2 ats winning the last seven of these by double-digits. The Wildcats also qualify in our Reverse Momentum Index as they are trending solidly in positive territory while the Badgers have been dropping since the last week of the regular season. The Badgers trend line in the Index has them in the red with no indication of that changing tonight. With solid support across the board for the Cats we will back them here as they get a little revenge for that Elite 8 loss last season. Arizona
NCAA Basketball TOTAL Selection(s):
5* UNDER 137 (projected 132.5) #511 Notre Dame vs. Kentucky 8:45PMEST
GAME: Notre Dame Irish vs. Kentucky Wildcats 8:45 PM EST
RATING: 5* (#511) Notre Dame Irish +11
The question was can the Wildcats handle the type and style of play the Mountaineers would attempt to force upon the Cats in their Sweet 16 matchup. As we expected no one associated with our bureau had any doubt Kentucky would defeat the West Virginia Mountaineers but like many others we didnae t expect a thirty-nine point blowout. One of the most incredible facts from that game is Kentucky didnae t need to score a single point in the second half to get the victory as West Virginia scored a total of 39 points for the game while Kentucky scored 44 in the first half. The upset talk has subsided to some degree doubting Notre Dame will be able to pull off what would be a major upset but we do not go by what others say and think. The Irish had a rather slow start to the Big Dance failing to cover against their first two opponents as chalk but dominating their Sweet 16 foe Wichita State as two-point underdogs winning 81 to 70. The Irish used the hot hands of guards Demetrius Jackson and Pat Connaughton how combined to shoot fourteen of twenty-two for thirty-six points in the win. Notre Dame as a team shot fifty-five percent from the floor in their win over the Shockers and they will need a similar performance tonight to advance to the Final Four. On the technical side we find the Irish with solid support across the board. Notre Dame coming off three straight victories are 56-35 ats overall. If the Irish won against the spread in their last game and the total went Over now playing on the road they are 9-2 against the number in this situation. Kentucky has struggled against the spread when coming off an ats win as a favorite and installed as a favorite in the current contest, their record is 40-62-1 ats. If the Cats won su and ats while going Under the posted total and now installed as the favorite they are just 8-20-1 ats. We want to Play AGAINST CBB postseason teams in this price range coming off back-to-back games that went Under the posted total because these teams are 9-20 ats their next time out. We want to Play ON CBB postseason underdogs coming off a su win and going Over as an underdog in their last game because they are 51-32-3 ats. If our underdog is playing away from home during the postseason under the same parameters they are 48-30-3 ats. The net results of the technical elements point to an Irish ats victory on Saturday night. The BTPR Index projects a point advantage of 3.62 points. Our BBMM projects a point differential of 8.08 points with a line range of +10.5 to +13. For those of you that do not follow Cajun Sports on a regular basis the BBMM is projecting a line differential of only 2.92 which means Kentucky is a -2.92 favorite based on the current line of -11 minus the BBMM average of 8.08 points which gives us Kentucky -2.92. Our BSIM Matrix has the Fighting Irish with a 73.81 percent advantage against the spread in tonights contest. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has an offensive-defensive differential of 6.49 with a transitional average of 42.05 and a conversion rate range of 47.68 to 49.03 percent in tonights contest. With solid support from the situational elements as well as the technical side we will take the double-digits with the Irish on Saturday night. Notre Dame
GAME: Arizona Wildcats vs. Wisconsin Badgers 6:05 PM EST
RATING: 5* (#513) Arizona Wildcats -1
The Badgers and Wildcats are set for the rematch of their Elite 8 affair a year ago with Wisconsin holding on in overtime to win by a single point 64 to 63. The Wildcats had last summer to get over that loss and the Basketball Gods have given them a chance for a little redemption. The Wildcats are 11-3 ats in the postseason coming off a su win in their last game. The Cats are 7-1 ats on the postseason road coming off a su win their last time out. We want to Play AGAINST NCAAB postseason underdogs who are coming off a su win and going Over in their last game, 42-69-3 ats. If those underdogs are in the current price range from pickem to -3.5 they are 7-17-3 ats. We want to Play ON road favorites in the postseason coming off three consecutive games where they were installed as the favorite, 67-43-2 ats. Our BTPR Index projects a point advantage of 7.33 points. The BBMM projects a point differential of 6.95 points with a line range of -1 to -3. The BSIM Matrix has the Arizona Wildcats with a 73.52 percent advantage against the spread in tonights contest. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has an offensive-defensive differential of 5.18 with a transitional average of 40.3 and a conversion rate range of 47.84 to 49.91 percent in tonights contest. We know that small chalk (pk to -3.5) playing away from home with a BTPR average of 6.75 or better and a BSIM average of 72.85 percent or higher have been money posting a record of 47-17-2 ats winning the last seven of these by double-digits. The Wildcats also qualify in our Reverse Momentum Index as they are trending solidly in positive territory while the Badgers have been dropping since the last week of the regular season. The Badgers trend line in the Index has them in the red with no indication of that changing tonight. With solid support across the board for the Cats we will back them here as they get a little revenge for that Elite 8 loss last season. Arizona
NCAA Basketball TOTAL Selection(s):
5* UNDER 137 (projected 132.5) #511 Notre Dame vs. Kentucky 8:45PMEST
Prediction Machine
AGAINST THE SPREAD PICKS (Based on Games Played 50,000 times)
STRAIGHT-UP PICKS (Based on Games Played 50,000 times)
OVER/UNDER PICKS (Based on Games Played 50,000 times)
AGAINST THE SPREAD PICKS (Based on Games Played 50,000 times)
| Rot | Time (ET) | Pick | Opp | Line | Margin | Pick% | $ | Calc |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 514 | 6:09 PM | WISCONSIN
| ARIZONA | 1.5 | 1.2 | 55.6 | $34 |
|
| 511 | 8:49 PM | NOTRE DAME | KENTUCKY | 11 | -8.9 | 52.7 | $3 |
|
STRAIGHT-UP PICKS (Based on Games Played 50,000 times)
| Rot | Time (ET) | Favorite | Opp | Points For | Points Against | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 512 | 8:49 PM | Kentucky | Notre Dame | 75.5 | 66.7 | 82.3 |
| 514 | 6:09 PM | Wisconsin
| Arizona | 69.2 | 68.0 | 55.2 |
OVER/UNDER PICKS (Based on Games Played 50,000 times)
| Home Rot | Time (ET) | Matchup | Line | Total Points | Pick | Pick% | $ | Calc |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 512 | 8:49 PM | NOTRE DAME vs KENTUCKY | 137 | 142.2 | Over | 56.1 | $39 |
|
| 514 | 6:09 PM | ARIZONA vs WISCONSIN | 133.5 | 137.2 | Over | 54.6 | $23 |
|
