STATSYSTEMS SPORTS NCAAB REPORT
SATURDAY, MARCH 28th 2015
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_____________________________________
***** Saturday, 3/28/15 NCAA College Basketball Knowledge *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014-15 NCAA College Basketball season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of StatSystemsSports.net. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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Saturday's Notebook
NCAA Tournament
•Kentucky's last seven wins are all by 13+ points; they hold opponents to 26.7% on arc, their defensive eFG% is 38.9%, #1 in country. Wildcats are 2-0 vs. ACC teams this season, beating North Carolina by 14, Louisville by 8. Notre Dame has #1 offensive eFG% in nation (58.5%), making 39.2% on arc, 58.4% inside it; Fighting Irish won last eight games; their non-ACC schedule has been 6th-easiest in country. ACC teams are 9-10 against the spread this postseason, 4-1 as underdogs; Kentucky is 1-2 versus spread in NCAA tournament; no sense grouping them in with rest of SEC teams. Since '09, 1-seeds are 5-8 versus spread in regional finals.
•Wisconsin (+3.5) beat Arizona 64-63 in OT in this game LY, exact same scenario as this one; Sean Miller is 0-3 in regional finals, but Arizona won its last 14 games overall- they beat Michigan by 27 in only game against Big Ten team this year. Badgers won last nine games, beating Oregon by 7 last weekend. Big Ten teams are 6-8 vs. spread this postseason, 2-4 as an underdog. Pac-12 teams are 9-6 vs. spread, 5-4 when favored. You look at regional finals between 1-2 seeds: since 2003, 2-seeds are 10-4 SU against 1-seeds in regional finals. In West Region finals, underdogs are 14-3 against the the spread the last 17 years.
#1 Seed favorites > 7 pts are 1-8 ATS
#2 Seeds are 3-10-1 ATS off a DD ATS win
#3 Seeds are 1-9 ATS
#4 Seeds are 11-2 ATS
#5 Seeds are 7-0 ATS
#6 Seeds are 2-5 ATS
#7 Seeds are 1-6 SU
#8 Seeds are 5-1 ATS
Teams that score 67 < pts are 16-47 SU & 15-45-3 ATS
Teams that score 85 > pts are 28-7 SU & 25-8-2 ATS
Teams off 3+ ATS wins are 6-1-1 ATS
Teams with Revenge are 16-5-1 ATS
Dogs off 3 straight DD wins are 1-5-1 ATS
•CIT Tournament
NJIT is an independent that is playing 10th straight home game, winning last three D-1 games- they scored 82 ppg in winning first two games in this tournament, beating UNH/Cleveland State. Canisius won six of last eight games, scoring 84.5 ppg in beating Dartmouth, Bowling Green in first two games of this tournament- they won last three true road games. MAAC teams are 3-2 versus spread this postseason, 2-1 as an underdog.
Hoop Trends - Saturday
•NOTRE DAME is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in road games versus excellent teams - shooting >=45% with a defense of <=42% over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NOTRE DAME 76.5, OPPONENT 71.8.
•KENTUCKY is 12-2 UNDER (+9.8 Units) after 2 straight games where opponent was called for 22 or more fouls over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was KENTUCKY 76.3, OPPONENT 56.6.
•ARIZONA is 17-1 (+16.4 Units) against the money line versus top caliber teams - outscoring their opponents by 12+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ARIZONA 71.2, OPPONENT 61.1.
•WISCONSIN is 28-11 (+15.9 Units) against the 1rst half line in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was WISCONSIN 33.6, OPPONENT 26.9.
•NOTRE DAME is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total in road games versus dominant rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 7+ per game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NOTRE DAME 39.7, OPPONENT 39.7.
•JIM BARON is 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) after 2 straight games with 9 or less offensive rebounds as the coach of CANISIUS.
The average score was BARON 75.8, OPPONENT 70.8.
Situational Analysis of The Day
•Play On - A road team versus the money line (CANISIUS) - a poor offensive team (63-67 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games, off an upset win by 10 points or more as an underdog against opponent off 2 or more consecutive home wins.
(26-9 since 1997.) (74.3%, +26.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +134.8
The average score in these games was: Team 69.3, Opponent 65.9 (Average point differential = +3.4)
The situation's record this season is: (6-1, +6.0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-4, +5.0 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (12-5, +15.2 units).
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_________________________
Saturday's Top Action
Systems Analyst James Vogel
ARIZONA WILDCATS (34-3) vs. WISCONSIN BADGERS (34-3)
Staples Center – Los Angeles, CA
NCAA Tournament – Elite Eight
Tip-off: Saturday, 6:09 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Arizona -1, Total 132
Two of the hottest teams in college basketball fight for a spot in the Final Four when Arizona takes on Wisconsin Saturday. Arizona comes into this game after defeating Xavier 68-60 as an 11.5-point favorite in the Sweet 16. The Wildcats have won 14 straight games and have not allowed more than 72 points in a single game since losing to Arizona State on Feb. 7. They are also 7-3 ATS in their past 10 contests. Wisconsin, meanwhile, beat North Carolina 79-72 as a 6-point favorite in the Sweet 16. The Badgers have scored 72+ points in each of the past four games and have covered in six of their past nine games. These teams met in the Elite Eight last year and Wisconsin beat Arizona 64-63 as a 3.5-point underdog. They have also met four times since 1997 and the Badgers are 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS in those contests.
Arizona is 16-5 ATS when playing only its second game in a week this season and 8-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two of its past three games this season as well. Wisconsin, however, is 22-10 ATS in non-conference games over the past two seasons. Both teams are 9-0 SU when playing on a neutral court this season and both will also come into this game at full strength. Arizona has been one of the best two-way teams in the nation this season, averaging 76.4 PPG (22nd in NCAA) on 48.9% shooting (6th in NCAA) and allowing just 59.0 PPG (14th in NCAA) thanks in part to 7.2 SPG (69th in NCAA).
C Kaleb Tarczewski (9.2 PPG, 5.3 RPG) had 12 points and four rebounds when the Wildcats faced Wisconsin a year ago, but he struggled on Frank Kaminsky. He must find a way to slow down one of the country’s best players on Saturday. F Stanley Johnson (14.0 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 1.5 SPG) has been a bright spot all year for Arizona, but he is just 5-for-22 in the past two games and needs to turn it around. He’s strong, athletic and knows how to score, so he could be a matchup problem if he is hitting his shots in this one.
F Brandon Ashley (12.1 PPG, 5.2 RPG) didn’t play in the Elite Eight a year ago. He got hurt before the tournament and will definitely come out and play with a ton of heart in this game. Ashley must play good defense and add some scoring when Wisconsin clamps down defensively. G T.J. McConnell (10.3 PPG, 6.3 APG, 3.9 RPG, 2.2 SPG) is averaging 18.0 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 5.5 APG and 3.0 SPG over the past two contests. He struggled against the Badgers last year though, with just nine points (2-for-10 FG) in an inefficient shooting game. F Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (11.1 PPG, 6.8 RP, 1.2 SPG) had 10 points and four boards in 31 minutes against Wisconsin last year. He did, however, tweak his knee last game and will need to be playing at full strength in this one to really be effective.
Wisconsin has had one of the most efficient offenses in the nation this season, averaging 71.9 PPG (67th in NCAA) on 48.0% shooting (21st in NCAA). The team is also solid defensively, allowing just 57.2 PPG (10th in NCAA). C Frank Kaminsky (18.4 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 1.5 BPG) is the guy that makes this team go. He is one of the best players in college basketball and Arizona witnessed his greatness a year ago. Kaminsky had 28 points and 11 rebounds against the Wildcats last year and will need to find some of that same success on Saturday. F Sam Dekker (13.5 PPG, 5.5 RPG) is another tough player to guard in this Wisconsin frontcourt. Dekker can score in a number of ways and is very athletic. He lit up North Carolina last round with 23 points and 10 rebounds.
G Bronson Koenig (8.6 PPG, 2.4 APG) is going to have his work cut out for him in this game. Koenig will need to guard McConnell, so he must be disciplined defensively. He had nine points and four assists against North Carolina before fouling out in 23 minutes. He can’t afford to be in foul trouble in this one or the Wildcats just might get their revenge on the Badgers. F Nigel Hayes (12.5 PPG, 6.4 RPG) is going to be the x-factor in this game. He has been struggling in the tournament so far, going 7-for-20 in the past two games and 1-for-9 from the outside as well. Hayes is a handful to guard in the paint and can also step out and knock down threes (38% 3PT). If he can get it going offensively then the Badgers will be very tough to beat.
NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH (32-5) vs. KENTUCKY WILDCATS (37-0)
Quicken Loans Arena – Cleveland, OH
NCAA Tournament – Elite Eight
Tip-off: Saturday, 8:49 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Kentucky -11, Total 136
No. 3 Notre Dame looks add a win over another famous undefeated team (UCLA, 1974) as they face off against No. 1 Kentucky for a Final Four berth. If Mike Brey’s Notre Dame fighting Irish can pull off the win tonight, they’ll own arguably two of the three biggest upsets in college basketball history (Duke beating UNLV qualifying as the third). John Calipari’s Kentucky squad enters after an impressive outing, thrashing 13.5-point underdog West Virginia (78-39) on Thursday. The Wildcats could’ve stopped playing at halftime, as they had 44 points at the break. Doubters had touted that Kentucky seemed “beatable” going into the West Virginia game, as Kentucky had failed to cover against Hampton and Cincinnati.
Notre Dame also didn’t look overly impressive in wins over Northeastern and in overtime over Butler in the first two rounds of the NCAA tournament. That said, the Fighting Irish – an underdog event though they were the higher seed – took out Wichita State 81-70 in a game that wasn’t even that close. Like Kentucky, Notre Dame covered for the first time in the tournament, as this was actually Notre Dame’s first cover in their past eight tournament games (dating back to 2010). The Wildcats will be a double-digit favorite for the eighth consecutive time and it’ll be the 13th time in the past 14 games where the Wildcats are favored by 11 or more points (8-4-1 ATS). Notre Dame has not faced a spread this big as an underdog this season, as they’re 2-1 SU (2-1 ATS) in games getting eight points or more (wins versus Duke and at North Carolina; 30 point loss at Duke).
Overall, Notre Dame is 6-2 SU (6-2 ATS) as an underdog this season, as the Irish have not had a cover paired with a straight-up loss once this entire season. Notre Dame’s total has been Under in six of its past nine games, while Kentucky’s total has been Under in five of its past seven. Historically, Notre Dame and Kentucky have met eight times since 1996 with Kentucky leading the series (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS). The teams last met in Dec. 2012 in South Bend with Mike Brey’s Fighting Irish beating Calipari’s Wildcats, 64-50 as 1.5-point favorites. Notre Dame has no injuries, while Kentucky G Aaron Harrison is probable for Saturday’s contest with a dislocated finger sustained in Thursday’s game.
Notre Dame will have to hope they have another sterling offensive effort in them as they face off against the nation’s most imposing defense. The Fighting Irish hung the biggest number that the stout Wichita State defense had seen all season, while shooting a scorching 56% from the field and 47% from three (9-for-19). Even more impressive, they put forth this performance with a single-digit scoring effort from leading scorer, G Jerian Grant (16.6 PPG, 6.7 APG, 48% FG), although Grant did have a game-high 11 assists while playing all 40 minutes. Notre Dame got it’s offense from G Pat Connaughton (12.6 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 2.5 3PM/G) G Demetrius Jackson (12.6 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 3.0 APG) and F Zach Auguste (12.7 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 61% FG) as that trio combined for 51 points on 71 percent from the field (20-for-28).
Each of these players, Jackson as Notre Dame’s quickest player off the dribble, Auguste as the Irish’s most effective big man, and Connaughton as Notre Dame’s deadliest offensive threat and defensive rebounder, will need to come up huge again to pull the upset versus Kentucky. G Steve Vasturia (9.9 PPG) also chipped in with 15 points versus Wichita State and is enjoying the best two-game scoring run of his career (having posted a career-high 20 points versus Butler). Notre Dame will probably also ask for a larger contribution from promising freshman F Bonzie Colson (5.6 PPG) to offer more athleticism versus Kentucky’s active interior defense. Colson contributed 17 points in 26 minutes for the Irish in their ACC tournament final win over Duke on Mar. 13.
Kentucky was 2-0 (2-0 ATS) against common ACC foes Louisville and North Carolina this season. The Wildcats are 3-3 ATS in games favored by 11 points or less, however, the three failures to cover are the past three contests in that six game span, most recently failing to cover at -9.5 at Georgia on Mar. 3. Kentucky has been to the Elite Eight of the NCAA tournament three times in the past four seasons and is 3-0 SU (3-0 ATS) in those games. The Wildcats are powered by the defensive chokehold they apply to opponents (53.5 PPG, 2nd in NCAA), as they’ve only allowed 70+ points on three occasions this season.
Everyone talks about the interior defense for Kentucky and of course, its 6.9 blocks per game (2nd in NCAA) is impressive, but against a perimeter-oriented squad like Notre Dame, the Wildcats’ sterling three point defense (26.7% 3PA, 2nd in NCAA) will be in the crosshairs. If Kentucky can keep Notre Dame in check from the perimeter, it will have a huge advantage in size and athleticism in the paint where the Wildcats will put their efficiency (74.8 PPG, 28th in NCAA; 46.6% FG, 42nd in NCAA) to good use.
Notre Dame doesn’t boast rim protection that will deter the likes of 6-foot-11 F Karl-Anthony Towns (9.7 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 55% FG, 21.0 MPG), seven-foot C Willie Cauley-Stein (9.2 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 58% FG, 26.0 MPG), and 6-foot-10 F Trey Lyles (8.7 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 49% FG). Cauley-Stein is a freak athlete who runs the floor like a deer and has at least two blocks in each of his past six games. Towns combines a deft touch from the field with uncanny timing around the basket on defense and has a team-leading eight double-doubles this season. Lyles has really come into his own as a focal point on offense in the second half of the season, hitting for double-figures in eight of his past 12 games.
G Andrew Harrison (9.3 PPG, 3.6 RPG) runs the show on offense and had 13 points and four steals against West Virginia on Thursday. Andrew’s brother, G Aaron Harrison (11.1 PPG, 1.6 3PM) is Kentucky’s leading scorer, but can drift in and out of games with his accuracy. Aaron Harrison is no stranger to making clutch shots, as proven in last season’s NCAA tournament. Two freshmen, G Tyler Ulis (5.7 PPG, 3.8 APG, 24 MPG) and G Devin Booker (10.1 PPG, 1.6 3PM, 40% 3PT) round out John Calipari’s rotation as options that don’t miss a beat when on the court for critical stretches.
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SATURDAY, MARCH 28th 2015
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_____________________________________
***** Saturday, 3/28/15 NCAA College Basketball Knowledge *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014-15 NCAA College Basketball season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of StatSystemsSports.net. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
___________________________________________
Saturday's Notebook
NCAA Tournament
•Kentucky's last seven wins are all by 13+ points; they hold opponents to 26.7% on arc, their defensive eFG% is 38.9%, #1 in country. Wildcats are 2-0 vs. ACC teams this season, beating North Carolina by 14, Louisville by 8. Notre Dame has #1 offensive eFG% in nation (58.5%), making 39.2% on arc, 58.4% inside it; Fighting Irish won last eight games; their non-ACC schedule has been 6th-easiest in country. ACC teams are 9-10 against the spread this postseason, 4-1 as underdogs; Kentucky is 1-2 versus spread in NCAA tournament; no sense grouping them in with rest of SEC teams. Since '09, 1-seeds are 5-8 versus spread in regional finals.
•Wisconsin (+3.5) beat Arizona 64-63 in OT in this game LY, exact same scenario as this one; Sean Miller is 0-3 in regional finals, but Arizona won its last 14 games overall- they beat Michigan by 27 in only game against Big Ten team this year. Badgers won last nine games, beating Oregon by 7 last weekend. Big Ten teams are 6-8 vs. spread this postseason, 2-4 as an underdog. Pac-12 teams are 9-6 vs. spread, 5-4 when favored. You look at regional finals between 1-2 seeds: since 2003, 2-seeds are 10-4 SU against 1-seeds in regional finals. In West Region finals, underdogs are 14-3 against the the spread the last 17 years.
#1 Seed favorites > 7 pts are 1-8 ATS
#2 Seeds are 3-10-1 ATS off a DD ATS win
#3 Seeds are 1-9 ATS
#4 Seeds are 11-2 ATS
#5 Seeds are 7-0 ATS
#6 Seeds are 2-5 ATS
#7 Seeds are 1-6 SU
#8 Seeds are 5-1 ATS
Teams that score 67 < pts are 16-47 SU & 15-45-3 ATS
Teams that score 85 > pts are 28-7 SU & 25-8-2 ATS
Teams off 3+ ATS wins are 6-1-1 ATS
Teams with Revenge are 16-5-1 ATS
Dogs off 3 straight DD wins are 1-5-1 ATS
•CIT Tournament
NJIT is an independent that is playing 10th straight home game, winning last three D-1 games- they scored 82 ppg in winning first two games in this tournament, beating UNH/Cleveland State. Canisius won six of last eight games, scoring 84.5 ppg in beating Dartmouth, Bowling Green in first two games of this tournament- they won last three true road games. MAAC teams are 3-2 versus spread this postseason, 2-1 as an underdog.
Hoop Trends - Saturday
•NOTRE DAME is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in road games versus excellent teams - shooting >=45% with a defense of <=42% over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NOTRE DAME 76.5, OPPONENT 71.8.
•KENTUCKY is 12-2 UNDER (+9.8 Units) after 2 straight games where opponent was called for 22 or more fouls over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was KENTUCKY 76.3, OPPONENT 56.6.
•ARIZONA is 17-1 (+16.4 Units) against the money line versus top caliber teams - outscoring their opponents by 12+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ARIZONA 71.2, OPPONENT 61.1.
•WISCONSIN is 28-11 (+15.9 Units) against the 1rst half line in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was WISCONSIN 33.6, OPPONENT 26.9.
•NOTRE DAME is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total in road games versus dominant rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 7+ per game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NOTRE DAME 39.7, OPPONENT 39.7.
•JIM BARON is 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) after 2 straight games with 9 or less offensive rebounds as the coach of CANISIUS.
The average score was BARON 75.8, OPPONENT 70.8.
Situational Analysis of The Day
•Play On - A road team versus the money line (CANISIUS) - a poor offensive team (63-67 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games, off an upset win by 10 points or more as an underdog against opponent off 2 or more consecutive home wins.
(26-9 since 1997.) (74.3%, +26.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +134.8
The average score in these games was: Team 69.3, Opponent 65.9 (Average point differential = +3.4)
The situation's record this season is: (6-1, +6.0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-4, +5.0 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (12-5, +15.2 units).
______________________________________________________
StatSystems Sports
Your #1 Source for Winning Information
StatSystemsSports.net takes pride in providing the average player with an edge by building a full in-depth analysis of football, basketball and baseball games. All aspects of games are considered. These include; but are not limited to, injuries, weather, playing surface, team chemistry, individual match-ups, line moves, scheduling, fatigue, statistical analysis, trend analysis, etc. The better prepared you are - The better chance you have of winning, plain and simple.
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"You'll be Real Glad You Did!"
_________________________
Saturday's Top Action
Systems Analyst James Vogel
ARIZONA WILDCATS (34-3) vs. WISCONSIN BADGERS (34-3)
Staples Center – Los Angeles, CA
NCAA Tournament – Elite Eight
Tip-off: Saturday, 6:09 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Arizona -1, Total 132
Two of the hottest teams in college basketball fight for a spot in the Final Four when Arizona takes on Wisconsin Saturday. Arizona comes into this game after defeating Xavier 68-60 as an 11.5-point favorite in the Sweet 16. The Wildcats have won 14 straight games and have not allowed more than 72 points in a single game since losing to Arizona State on Feb. 7. They are also 7-3 ATS in their past 10 contests. Wisconsin, meanwhile, beat North Carolina 79-72 as a 6-point favorite in the Sweet 16. The Badgers have scored 72+ points in each of the past four games and have covered in six of their past nine games. These teams met in the Elite Eight last year and Wisconsin beat Arizona 64-63 as a 3.5-point underdog. They have also met four times since 1997 and the Badgers are 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS in those contests.
Arizona is 16-5 ATS when playing only its second game in a week this season and 8-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two of its past three games this season as well. Wisconsin, however, is 22-10 ATS in non-conference games over the past two seasons. Both teams are 9-0 SU when playing on a neutral court this season and both will also come into this game at full strength. Arizona has been one of the best two-way teams in the nation this season, averaging 76.4 PPG (22nd in NCAA) on 48.9% shooting (6th in NCAA) and allowing just 59.0 PPG (14th in NCAA) thanks in part to 7.2 SPG (69th in NCAA).
C Kaleb Tarczewski (9.2 PPG, 5.3 RPG) had 12 points and four rebounds when the Wildcats faced Wisconsin a year ago, but he struggled on Frank Kaminsky. He must find a way to slow down one of the country’s best players on Saturday. F Stanley Johnson (14.0 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 1.5 SPG) has been a bright spot all year for Arizona, but he is just 5-for-22 in the past two games and needs to turn it around. He’s strong, athletic and knows how to score, so he could be a matchup problem if he is hitting his shots in this one.
F Brandon Ashley (12.1 PPG, 5.2 RPG) didn’t play in the Elite Eight a year ago. He got hurt before the tournament and will definitely come out and play with a ton of heart in this game. Ashley must play good defense and add some scoring when Wisconsin clamps down defensively. G T.J. McConnell (10.3 PPG, 6.3 APG, 3.9 RPG, 2.2 SPG) is averaging 18.0 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 5.5 APG and 3.0 SPG over the past two contests. He struggled against the Badgers last year though, with just nine points (2-for-10 FG) in an inefficient shooting game. F Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (11.1 PPG, 6.8 RP, 1.2 SPG) had 10 points and four boards in 31 minutes against Wisconsin last year. He did, however, tweak his knee last game and will need to be playing at full strength in this one to really be effective.
Wisconsin has had one of the most efficient offenses in the nation this season, averaging 71.9 PPG (67th in NCAA) on 48.0% shooting (21st in NCAA). The team is also solid defensively, allowing just 57.2 PPG (10th in NCAA). C Frank Kaminsky (18.4 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 1.5 BPG) is the guy that makes this team go. He is one of the best players in college basketball and Arizona witnessed his greatness a year ago. Kaminsky had 28 points and 11 rebounds against the Wildcats last year and will need to find some of that same success on Saturday. F Sam Dekker (13.5 PPG, 5.5 RPG) is another tough player to guard in this Wisconsin frontcourt. Dekker can score in a number of ways and is very athletic. He lit up North Carolina last round with 23 points and 10 rebounds.
G Bronson Koenig (8.6 PPG, 2.4 APG) is going to have his work cut out for him in this game. Koenig will need to guard McConnell, so he must be disciplined defensively. He had nine points and four assists against North Carolina before fouling out in 23 minutes. He can’t afford to be in foul trouble in this one or the Wildcats just might get their revenge on the Badgers. F Nigel Hayes (12.5 PPG, 6.4 RPG) is going to be the x-factor in this game. He has been struggling in the tournament so far, going 7-for-20 in the past two games and 1-for-9 from the outside as well. Hayes is a handful to guard in the paint and can also step out and knock down threes (38% 3PT). If he can get it going offensively then the Badgers will be very tough to beat.
NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH (32-5) vs. KENTUCKY WILDCATS (37-0)
Quicken Loans Arena – Cleveland, OH
NCAA Tournament – Elite Eight
Tip-off: Saturday, 8:49 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Kentucky -11, Total 136
No. 3 Notre Dame looks add a win over another famous undefeated team (UCLA, 1974) as they face off against No. 1 Kentucky for a Final Four berth. If Mike Brey’s Notre Dame fighting Irish can pull off the win tonight, they’ll own arguably two of the three biggest upsets in college basketball history (Duke beating UNLV qualifying as the third). John Calipari’s Kentucky squad enters after an impressive outing, thrashing 13.5-point underdog West Virginia (78-39) on Thursday. The Wildcats could’ve stopped playing at halftime, as they had 44 points at the break. Doubters had touted that Kentucky seemed “beatable” going into the West Virginia game, as Kentucky had failed to cover against Hampton and Cincinnati.
Notre Dame also didn’t look overly impressive in wins over Northeastern and in overtime over Butler in the first two rounds of the NCAA tournament. That said, the Fighting Irish – an underdog event though they were the higher seed – took out Wichita State 81-70 in a game that wasn’t even that close. Like Kentucky, Notre Dame covered for the first time in the tournament, as this was actually Notre Dame’s first cover in their past eight tournament games (dating back to 2010). The Wildcats will be a double-digit favorite for the eighth consecutive time and it’ll be the 13th time in the past 14 games where the Wildcats are favored by 11 or more points (8-4-1 ATS). Notre Dame has not faced a spread this big as an underdog this season, as they’re 2-1 SU (2-1 ATS) in games getting eight points or more (wins versus Duke and at North Carolina; 30 point loss at Duke).
Overall, Notre Dame is 6-2 SU (6-2 ATS) as an underdog this season, as the Irish have not had a cover paired with a straight-up loss once this entire season. Notre Dame’s total has been Under in six of its past nine games, while Kentucky’s total has been Under in five of its past seven. Historically, Notre Dame and Kentucky have met eight times since 1996 with Kentucky leading the series (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS). The teams last met in Dec. 2012 in South Bend with Mike Brey’s Fighting Irish beating Calipari’s Wildcats, 64-50 as 1.5-point favorites. Notre Dame has no injuries, while Kentucky G Aaron Harrison is probable for Saturday’s contest with a dislocated finger sustained in Thursday’s game.
Notre Dame will have to hope they have another sterling offensive effort in them as they face off against the nation’s most imposing defense. The Fighting Irish hung the biggest number that the stout Wichita State defense had seen all season, while shooting a scorching 56% from the field and 47% from three (9-for-19). Even more impressive, they put forth this performance with a single-digit scoring effort from leading scorer, G Jerian Grant (16.6 PPG, 6.7 APG, 48% FG), although Grant did have a game-high 11 assists while playing all 40 minutes. Notre Dame got it’s offense from G Pat Connaughton (12.6 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 2.5 3PM/G) G Demetrius Jackson (12.6 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 3.0 APG) and F Zach Auguste (12.7 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 61% FG) as that trio combined for 51 points on 71 percent from the field (20-for-28).
Each of these players, Jackson as Notre Dame’s quickest player off the dribble, Auguste as the Irish’s most effective big man, and Connaughton as Notre Dame’s deadliest offensive threat and defensive rebounder, will need to come up huge again to pull the upset versus Kentucky. G Steve Vasturia (9.9 PPG) also chipped in with 15 points versus Wichita State and is enjoying the best two-game scoring run of his career (having posted a career-high 20 points versus Butler). Notre Dame will probably also ask for a larger contribution from promising freshman F Bonzie Colson (5.6 PPG) to offer more athleticism versus Kentucky’s active interior defense. Colson contributed 17 points in 26 minutes for the Irish in their ACC tournament final win over Duke on Mar. 13.
Kentucky was 2-0 (2-0 ATS) against common ACC foes Louisville and North Carolina this season. The Wildcats are 3-3 ATS in games favored by 11 points or less, however, the three failures to cover are the past three contests in that six game span, most recently failing to cover at -9.5 at Georgia on Mar. 3. Kentucky has been to the Elite Eight of the NCAA tournament three times in the past four seasons and is 3-0 SU (3-0 ATS) in those games. The Wildcats are powered by the defensive chokehold they apply to opponents (53.5 PPG, 2nd in NCAA), as they’ve only allowed 70+ points on three occasions this season.
Everyone talks about the interior defense for Kentucky and of course, its 6.9 blocks per game (2nd in NCAA) is impressive, but against a perimeter-oriented squad like Notre Dame, the Wildcats’ sterling three point defense (26.7% 3PA, 2nd in NCAA) will be in the crosshairs. If Kentucky can keep Notre Dame in check from the perimeter, it will have a huge advantage in size and athleticism in the paint where the Wildcats will put their efficiency (74.8 PPG, 28th in NCAA; 46.6% FG, 42nd in NCAA) to good use.
Notre Dame doesn’t boast rim protection that will deter the likes of 6-foot-11 F Karl-Anthony Towns (9.7 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 55% FG, 21.0 MPG), seven-foot C Willie Cauley-Stein (9.2 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 58% FG, 26.0 MPG), and 6-foot-10 F Trey Lyles (8.7 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 49% FG). Cauley-Stein is a freak athlete who runs the floor like a deer and has at least two blocks in each of his past six games. Towns combines a deft touch from the field with uncanny timing around the basket on defense and has a team-leading eight double-doubles this season. Lyles has really come into his own as a focal point on offense in the second half of the season, hitting for double-figures in eight of his past 12 games.
G Andrew Harrison (9.3 PPG, 3.6 RPG) runs the show on offense and had 13 points and four steals against West Virginia on Thursday. Andrew’s brother, G Aaron Harrison (11.1 PPG, 1.6 3PM) is Kentucky’s leading scorer, but can drift in and out of games with his accuracy. Aaron Harrison is no stranger to making clutch shots, as proven in last season’s NCAA tournament. Two freshmen, G Tyler Ulis (5.7 PPG, 3.8 APG, 24 MPG) and G Devin Booker (10.1 PPG, 1.6 3PM, 40% 3PT) round out John Calipari’s rotation as options that don’t miss a beat when on the court for critical stretches.
__________________________________________________________
STATSYSTEMS SPORTS NBA REPORT
SATURDAY, MARCH 28th 2015
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_____________________________________
***** Saturday, 3/28/15 National Basketball Association Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014-15 National Basketball Association season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational and Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of StatSystemsSports.net. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
_____________________________________________________________
Inside the Paint – Saturday
•Hot Teams
-- Hawks won six of last seven at home; they clinched home field thru the Eastern Conference playoffs last night (3-5 last eight AF).
-- Bulls won four of their last five games (4-1 last five HF).
-- Golden State won its last seven games (6-1 vs. spread).
-- Thunder won four of its last five games (6-3 last nine AF).
-- Portland won last two games, allowing 89-81 points, after losing five in row before that (5-2 last seven HF).
•Cold Teams
-- Charlotte is 2-8 in last ten games, losing in double OT last night (4-2 last six HU).
-- Knicks lost their last six games (1-5 vs. spread).
-- Milwaukee lost six of last seven games (1-3 last four HU).
-- Utah lost five of its last six games (4-1 last five HU).
-- Nuggets lost four of their last six games (6-3 last nine AU).
•Totals
-- Six of last seven Charlotte home games went over.
-- Six of last eight New York road games stayed under.
-- Under is 9-4 in Golden State's last 13 road games.
-- Last nine Oklahoma City road games went over.
-- Five of last six Portland home games went over.
•Series Records
-- Hawks won eight of last ten games with Charlotte.
-- Knicks lost eight of last ten games with Chicago.
-- Warriors won their last three games with Milwaukee.
-- Thunder won seven of last nine games with Utah.
-- Nuggets lost their last seven games with Portland.
•Back-To-Backs
-- Hawks are 2-4-1 vs. spread on road if they were at home night before. Charlotte is 3-5 at home if they played night before.
-- Knicks are 5-9-1 on road if they played night before.
-- Golden State is 7-5 on road if it played night before.
-- Jazz is 3-2 vs. spread at home if they played night before.
-- Denver is 1-5 vs. spread if it won night before; Portland is 8-7 when it had played the night before.
•East vs. West
-- SU: West 236-167 ATS: West 207-193-3
-- East teams HF vs. West: 50-56
-- East teams HU vs. West: 45-47
-- West teams HF vs. East: 81-78-3
-- West teams HU vs. East: 24-19
______________________________
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Hoop Trends - Saturday
•GOLDEN STATE is 15-2 ATS (+12.8 Units) after 2 straight games where they were called for 18 or less fouls over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 108.2, OPPONENT 97.4.
•CHICAGO is 11-1 UNDER (+9.9 Units) in home games versus terrible teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CHICAGO 93.5, OPPONENT 84.2.
•ATLANTA is 26-3 (+25.6 Units) against the money line after playing 3 consecutive games as favorite this season.
The average score was ATLANTA 104.2, OPPONENT 96.7.
•DENVER is 9-0 (+9.0 Units) against the 1rst half line versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=36% of their attempts - 2nd half of the season this season.
The average score was DENVER 53.9, OPPONENT 51.2.
•UTAH is 23-2 UNDER (+20.8 Units) the 1rst half total versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
The average score was UTAH 43.6, OPPONENT 43.4.
•DEREK FISHER is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) when playing their 5th game in 7 days as the coach of NEW YORK.
The average score was FISHER 87.3, OPPONENT 105.1.
Situational Analysis of The Day
•Play Against - Any team of 6 or more points versus the first half line (CHICAGO) - average defensive team (43.5-45.5%) against a poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%), a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a poor offensive team (88-92 PPG), after a game where a team made 60% of their shots or better.
(36-7 since 1996.) (83.7%, +28.3 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 51.6, Opponent 49.5 (Average first half point differential = +2.1)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (8-1).
_____________________________________________
Saturday's NBA Essentials
Systems Analyst Erik Jeromin
•Hawks @ Hornets – 7:05 PM EST
Charlotte has lost eight of 10 games following last night’s double-overtime loss to the Wizards and has slipped to 11th in the East, a couple of games behind No. 8 Boston. Al Jefferson is playing through a sore knee but has posted double-doubles in three of the last four games after posting 31 points and 10 boards. Kemba Walker shot 3-for-17 against the Wizards and is shooting just 32 percent since returning from missing 18 games after January surgery on a torn meniscus, averaging 13.2 points and four assists. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist severely sprained his left ankle in Washington late in the third quarter and limped back to the locker room under his own power. It would be a surprise to see him here. Cody Zeller missed his fourth straight game with a shoulder injury and is considered questionable. Mo Williams helped make up for Walker’s struggles by just missing a triple-double (26-9-10), while Gerald Henderson added 11 points and a career-high 14 rebounds to help take some of the sting out of losing Kidd-Gilchrist. The Hornets are opening a three-game homestand here. Five of Charlotte’s last seven games have gone under the posted total. They’ve lost on the second night of a back-to-back five of the last six times they’ve been in this situation, including three in a row.
After rolling his ankle in the first quarter of Wednesday’s visit to Orlando, Jeff Teague returned to help the Hawks beat the Magic but sat out Friday’s 99-86 win over Miami. The Hawks say his ankle is tender and are exercising caution with their point guard since they’ve got the No. 1 seed in the East virtually assured. Teague has missed seven games this season, all of which have resulted in Atlanta wins. Backup Dennis Schroder has scored in double-figures in 13 of 14 games, including four straight, averaging 15.2 points and 5.8 assists since shooting 1-for-12 at Golden State on March 18. Schroder’s 12 points and 11 assists marked his third double-double in a 14-game span after having recorded only one all season prior to the All-Star break. DeMarre Carroll scored 24 points, one off his season-high, to help beat the Heat. Often unheralded as the Hawks’ lone non-All-Star starter, Carroll is averaging 15.7 points and 6.7 rebounds over his last six games, his most productive prolonged stretch of the season. Atlanta is playing just its third back-to-back since the break but have won nine of the last 10 SU in this situation.
•Warriors @ Bucks – 8:35 PM EST
Following an incredibly impressive 107-84 rout of Memphis, the Warriors have now won 13 of their last 14 games and have only been held under 100 points once all month. Golden State is 2-0 during this run of seven road dates in eight games, a stretch that got underway on a winning note in a 122-108 Tuesday night stomping of Portland. MVP frontrunner Stephen Curry pulled off a dominant 38-point, 10-assist night against the Grizzlies, knocking down eight 3-pointers. Since he sat out the Warriors’ last loss to Denver, the team has won the last 13 times he’s played and is 14-1 with him on board in March. Klay Thompson returned from a significant ankle injury earlier this week and added 28 points, connecting on 6-for-9 from 3-point range. He’s already played one back-to-back without incident, so it would be surprising not to see him suit up, though Golden State head coach Steve Kerr could exercise caution on the road. Thompson has averaged 17.7 points over the three games he’s been back. The Warriors have covered in each of its last six games and has seen overs hit in seven of its last nine contests They beat the Bucks 102-93 at Oracle Arena on March 4 and have won and covered in their last four on the second night of a back-to-back.
Milwaukee hopes to close out a four-game homestand on a three-game winning streak, coming in off conquests of playoff hopefuls Miami and Indiana thus far this week. The Bucks had lost six consecutive games prior to their current run and haven’t won three consecutive games since before the All-Star break. The Bucks have won back-to-back games for the first time with Michael Carter-Williams at the point, improving to 5-10 in games he’s participated in. He’s averaging over 14 points and nearly six assists since arriving from Philadelphia, but has shot just 37 percent from the field in March. Ersan Ilyasova is finally healthy and comes off a season-high 34-point night in Thursday’s 111-107 win over the Pacers, shooting 12-for-14 from the field, including 5-for-6 from 3-point range. He’s averaged 17.5 points and 8.1 rebounds over his last eight games. Four of Milwaukee’s last five games have gone over the posted total.
•Thunder @ Jazz – 8:35 PM EST
The Thunder already knew they were going to be without Kevin Durant the rest of the way, so don’t look for a spark following the announcement that he’ll have to have a bone graft next week, sidelining him from basketball activity until late September at the earliest. Serge Ibaka says he’s closer to coming back from knee surgery after originally being expected to miss the remainder of the regular season, but he won’t be a part of the equation until deep into the first week of April at the earliest. OKC resides in the No. 8 spot in the Western Conference and will need Russell Westbrook to continue his epic run in order to stay there. Unfortunately, the NBA’s leading scorer has shown signs of slowing down. Since scoring at least 40 points in three straight games at the beginning of the month, he hasn’t been able to top 36 in any game since and is averaging just 18.3 points over his last three games. The over is 14-3-1 in Thunder games since Feb. 21 and OKC has covered six of eight. Coming off a 130-91 loss in San Antonio, it’s worth pointing out that the Thunder has only lost consecutive games once since the end of January.
The Jazz fell in Denver on Friday night, giving up over 100 points for the third time in four games. Not surprisingly, a team that hangs their hat on defense to win games has now lost four straight for the first time since December. A stretch of 16 unders in 19 games has come to an emphatic end as Utah has now played four straight that have gone over the posted total. Gordon Hayward was able to return after dealing with a sore knee, scoring a team-high 24 points and grabbing seven rebounds against the Nuggets. It remains to be seen whether Utah will take the cautious approach with him and sit him on the second night of a back-to-back. Rookie Dante Exum fell ill at halftime and didn’t play in the second half. The 19-year-old appears to have hit the wall, shooting just 3-for-24 over the last six games, a stretch where he has more turnovers (9) than he has points (7).
•Nuggets @ Trail Blazers – 10:05 PM EST
Ty Lawson led the way with 18 points and nine assists in a 107-91 win against Utah, leading five guys in double-figures. Backup Jameer Nelson also got in on the act with 18 points, shooting 7-for-10 from the field. Kenneth Faried played just 17 minutes due to foul trouble, so he should be fresh here. Danilo Gallinari has been sitting on the second night of back-to-backs of late, so he may not play after shooting 4-for-14 last night. Former Trail Blazers J.J. Hickson and Will Barton should play large roles off the Denver bench and combined for 21 points and 13 rebounds against Utah. The Nuggets are looking to avoid a four-game sweep at the hands of Northwest Division-leading Portland. Denver has covered 10 of its last 15 games.
The Trail Blazers snapped a seven-game losing streak in Phoenix that dated back to 2010 and have now won consecutive games after dropping five in a row SU and ATS. LaMarcus Aldridge scored 10 straight points in the final minutes of the game to fuel a comeback after Portland scored just 13 points in the third quarter against the Suns. The Trail Blazers are now home for the next three games and will need to have success in order to work their way back up to the No. 4 spot in the Western Conference, locking in homecourt advantage in a first-round series. Point guard Damian Lillard shot 4-for-15 in Phoenix but had started coming out of a major slump, scoring over 20 points in three straight games for the first time since January. The Blazers need him to keep bouncing back. Center Robin Lopez came up with only his sixth double-double (12 points, 10 boards) of the season, only his second since Feb. 5. Despite last night’s low-scoring 87-81 win, Portland has seen the over hit in seven of its last nine games. The Blazers have lost two of the last three times they’ve played a second of a back-to-back.
________________________________________________________________
SATURDAY, MARCH 28th 2015
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_____________________________________
***** Saturday, 3/28/15 National Basketball Association Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014-15 National Basketball Association season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational and Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of StatSystemsSports.net. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
_____________________________________________________________
Inside the Paint – Saturday
•Hot Teams
-- Hawks won six of last seven at home; they clinched home field thru the Eastern Conference playoffs last night (3-5 last eight AF).
-- Bulls won four of their last five games (4-1 last five HF).
-- Golden State won its last seven games (6-1 vs. spread).
-- Thunder won four of its last five games (6-3 last nine AF).
-- Portland won last two games, allowing 89-81 points, after losing five in row before that (5-2 last seven HF).
•Cold Teams
-- Charlotte is 2-8 in last ten games, losing in double OT last night (4-2 last six HU).
-- Knicks lost their last six games (1-5 vs. spread).
-- Milwaukee lost six of last seven games (1-3 last four HU).
-- Utah lost five of its last six games (4-1 last five HU).
-- Nuggets lost four of their last six games (6-3 last nine AU).
•Totals
-- Six of last seven Charlotte home games went over.
-- Six of last eight New York road games stayed under.
-- Under is 9-4 in Golden State's last 13 road games.
-- Last nine Oklahoma City road games went over.
-- Five of last six Portland home games went over.
•Series Records
-- Hawks won eight of last ten games with Charlotte.
-- Knicks lost eight of last ten games with Chicago.
-- Warriors won their last three games with Milwaukee.
-- Thunder won seven of last nine games with Utah.
-- Nuggets lost their last seven games with Portland.
•Back-To-Backs
-- Hawks are 2-4-1 vs. spread on road if they were at home night before. Charlotte is 3-5 at home if they played night before.
-- Knicks are 5-9-1 on road if they played night before.
-- Golden State is 7-5 on road if it played night before.
-- Jazz is 3-2 vs. spread at home if they played night before.
-- Denver is 1-5 vs. spread if it won night before; Portland is 8-7 when it had played the night before.
•East vs. West
-- SU: West 236-167 ATS: West 207-193-3
-- East teams HF vs. West: 50-56
-- East teams HU vs. West: 45-47
-- West teams HF vs. East: 81-78-3
-- West teams HU vs. East: 24-19
______________________________
StatSystems Sports
Your #1 Source for Winning Information
StatSystemsSports.net takes pride in providing the average player with an edge by building a full in-depth analysis of football, basketball and baseball games. All aspects of games are considered. These include; but are not limited to, injuries, weather, playing surface, team chemistry, individual match-ups, line moves, scheduling, fatigue, statistical analysis, trend analysis, etc. The better prepared you are - The better chance you have of winning, plain and simple.
Get the most sought after plays in the industry today! Call us today for a 1 Day VIP Pass - $29.00, 7 Day VIP Pass - $149.00, or get our most popular 30 Day VIP Package for just $499.00.
P.S. If you're looking to acquire the extra insider edge, look no further than our Daily StatSystems NBA & NCAA College Basketball Reports providing you the most up to date information on injuries, line moves, in-game betting and everything sports betting related.
"You'll be Real Glad You Did!"
_________________________
Hoop Trends - Saturday
•GOLDEN STATE is 15-2 ATS (+12.8 Units) after 2 straight games where they were called for 18 or less fouls over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 108.2, OPPONENT 97.4.
•CHICAGO is 11-1 UNDER (+9.9 Units) in home games versus terrible teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CHICAGO 93.5, OPPONENT 84.2.
•ATLANTA is 26-3 (+25.6 Units) against the money line after playing 3 consecutive games as favorite this season.
The average score was ATLANTA 104.2, OPPONENT 96.7.
•DENVER is 9-0 (+9.0 Units) against the 1rst half line versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=36% of their attempts - 2nd half of the season this season.
The average score was DENVER 53.9, OPPONENT 51.2.
•UTAH is 23-2 UNDER (+20.8 Units) the 1rst half total versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
The average score was UTAH 43.6, OPPONENT 43.4.
•DEREK FISHER is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) when playing their 5th game in 7 days as the coach of NEW YORK.
The average score was FISHER 87.3, OPPONENT 105.1.
Situational Analysis of The Day
•Play Against - Any team of 6 or more points versus the first half line (CHICAGO) - average defensive team (43.5-45.5%) against a poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%), a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a poor offensive team (88-92 PPG), after a game where a team made 60% of their shots or better.
(36-7 since 1996.) (83.7%, +28.3 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 51.6, Opponent 49.5 (Average first half point differential = +2.1)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (8-1).
_____________________________________________
Saturday's NBA Essentials
Systems Analyst Erik Jeromin
•Hawks @ Hornets – 7:05 PM EST
Charlotte has lost eight of 10 games following last night’s double-overtime loss to the Wizards and has slipped to 11th in the East, a couple of games behind No. 8 Boston. Al Jefferson is playing through a sore knee but has posted double-doubles in three of the last four games after posting 31 points and 10 boards. Kemba Walker shot 3-for-17 against the Wizards and is shooting just 32 percent since returning from missing 18 games after January surgery on a torn meniscus, averaging 13.2 points and four assists. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist severely sprained his left ankle in Washington late in the third quarter and limped back to the locker room under his own power. It would be a surprise to see him here. Cody Zeller missed his fourth straight game with a shoulder injury and is considered questionable. Mo Williams helped make up for Walker’s struggles by just missing a triple-double (26-9-10), while Gerald Henderson added 11 points and a career-high 14 rebounds to help take some of the sting out of losing Kidd-Gilchrist. The Hornets are opening a three-game homestand here. Five of Charlotte’s last seven games have gone under the posted total. They’ve lost on the second night of a back-to-back five of the last six times they’ve been in this situation, including three in a row.
After rolling his ankle in the first quarter of Wednesday’s visit to Orlando, Jeff Teague returned to help the Hawks beat the Magic but sat out Friday’s 99-86 win over Miami. The Hawks say his ankle is tender and are exercising caution with their point guard since they’ve got the No. 1 seed in the East virtually assured. Teague has missed seven games this season, all of which have resulted in Atlanta wins. Backup Dennis Schroder has scored in double-figures in 13 of 14 games, including four straight, averaging 15.2 points and 5.8 assists since shooting 1-for-12 at Golden State on March 18. Schroder’s 12 points and 11 assists marked his third double-double in a 14-game span after having recorded only one all season prior to the All-Star break. DeMarre Carroll scored 24 points, one off his season-high, to help beat the Heat. Often unheralded as the Hawks’ lone non-All-Star starter, Carroll is averaging 15.7 points and 6.7 rebounds over his last six games, his most productive prolonged stretch of the season. Atlanta is playing just its third back-to-back since the break but have won nine of the last 10 SU in this situation.
•Warriors @ Bucks – 8:35 PM EST
Following an incredibly impressive 107-84 rout of Memphis, the Warriors have now won 13 of their last 14 games and have only been held under 100 points once all month. Golden State is 2-0 during this run of seven road dates in eight games, a stretch that got underway on a winning note in a 122-108 Tuesday night stomping of Portland. MVP frontrunner Stephen Curry pulled off a dominant 38-point, 10-assist night against the Grizzlies, knocking down eight 3-pointers. Since he sat out the Warriors’ last loss to Denver, the team has won the last 13 times he’s played and is 14-1 with him on board in March. Klay Thompson returned from a significant ankle injury earlier this week and added 28 points, connecting on 6-for-9 from 3-point range. He’s already played one back-to-back without incident, so it would be surprising not to see him suit up, though Golden State head coach Steve Kerr could exercise caution on the road. Thompson has averaged 17.7 points over the three games he’s been back. The Warriors have covered in each of its last six games and has seen overs hit in seven of its last nine contests They beat the Bucks 102-93 at Oracle Arena on March 4 and have won and covered in their last four on the second night of a back-to-back.
Milwaukee hopes to close out a four-game homestand on a three-game winning streak, coming in off conquests of playoff hopefuls Miami and Indiana thus far this week. The Bucks had lost six consecutive games prior to their current run and haven’t won three consecutive games since before the All-Star break. The Bucks have won back-to-back games for the first time with Michael Carter-Williams at the point, improving to 5-10 in games he’s participated in. He’s averaging over 14 points and nearly six assists since arriving from Philadelphia, but has shot just 37 percent from the field in March. Ersan Ilyasova is finally healthy and comes off a season-high 34-point night in Thursday’s 111-107 win over the Pacers, shooting 12-for-14 from the field, including 5-for-6 from 3-point range. He’s averaged 17.5 points and 8.1 rebounds over his last eight games. Four of Milwaukee’s last five games have gone over the posted total.
•Thunder @ Jazz – 8:35 PM EST
The Thunder already knew they were going to be without Kevin Durant the rest of the way, so don’t look for a spark following the announcement that he’ll have to have a bone graft next week, sidelining him from basketball activity until late September at the earliest. Serge Ibaka says he’s closer to coming back from knee surgery after originally being expected to miss the remainder of the regular season, but he won’t be a part of the equation until deep into the first week of April at the earliest. OKC resides in the No. 8 spot in the Western Conference and will need Russell Westbrook to continue his epic run in order to stay there. Unfortunately, the NBA’s leading scorer has shown signs of slowing down. Since scoring at least 40 points in three straight games at the beginning of the month, he hasn’t been able to top 36 in any game since and is averaging just 18.3 points over his last three games. The over is 14-3-1 in Thunder games since Feb. 21 and OKC has covered six of eight. Coming off a 130-91 loss in San Antonio, it’s worth pointing out that the Thunder has only lost consecutive games once since the end of January.
The Jazz fell in Denver on Friday night, giving up over 100 points for the third time in four games. Not surprisingly, a team that hangs their hat on defense to win games has now lost four straight for the first time since December. A stretch of 16 unders in 19 games has come to an emphatic end as Utah has now played four straight that have gone over the posted total. Gordon Hayward was able to return after dealing with a sore knee, scoring a team-high 24 points and grabbing seven rebounds against the Nuggets. It remains to be seen whether Utah will take the cautious approach with him and sit him on the second night of a back-to-back. Rookie Dante Exum fell ill at halftime and didn’t play in the second half. The 19-year-old appears to have hit the wall, shooting just 3-for-24 over the last six games, a stretch where he has more turnovers (9) than he has points (7).
•Nuggets @ Trail Blazers – 10:05 PM EST
Ty Lawson led the way with 18 points and nine assists in a 107-91 win against Utah, leading five guys in double-figures. Backup Jameer Nelson also got in on the act with 18 points, shooting 7-for-10 from the field. Kenneth Faried played just 17 minutes due to foul trouble, so he should be fresh here. Danilo Gallinari has been sitting on the second night of back-to-backs of late, so he may not play after shooting 4-for-14 last night. Former Trail Blazers J.J. Hickson and Will Barton should play large roles off the Denver bench and combined for 21 points and 13 rebounds against Utah. The Nuggets are looking to avoid a four-game sweep at the hands of Northwest Division-leading Portland. Denver has covered 10 of its last 15 games.
The Trail Blazers snapped a seven-game losing streak in Phoenix that dated back to 2010 and have now won consecutive games after dropping five in a row SU and ATS. LaMarcus Aldridge scored 10 straight points in the final minutes of the game to fuel a comeback after Portland scored just 13 points in the third quarter against the Suns. The Trail Blazers are now home for the next three games and will need to have success in order to work their way back up to the No. 4 spot in the Western Conference, locking in homecourt advantage in a first-round series. Point guard Damian Lillard shot 4-for-15 in Phoenix but had started coming out of a major slump, scoring over 20 points in three straight games for the first time since January. The Blazers need him to keep bouncing back. Center Robin Lopez came up with only his sixth double-double (12 points, 10 boards) of the season, only his second since Feb. 5. Despite last night’s low-scoring 87-81 win, Portland has seen the over hit in seven of its last nine games. The Blazers have lost two of the last three times they’ve played a second of a back-to-back.
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