StraightUPWinners Sharp - Xavier Singleton
Sports Picks, March 21, 2015
Game of a Lifetime
Arkansas vs UNC
20-unit UNC -4.5 @ 5dimes
5-units UNC ML -200 @ 5dimes
5-units UNC 1st H ML -165 @ 5dimes
Here is the most basic way to break down this matchup. Arkansas wants to play fast tempo, up and down basketball and get to the hoop. UNC wants to do the exact same thing. When you are the less athletic, less skilled, and the smaller team, you have to impose your will. You have to control the pace of the game. You have to play your game. Many, really, almost all the games we've had previous of the smaller, less talented schools keeping it close was because they wanted to play a different style of basketball. Normally slow, half court basketball. Arkansas will never be able to beat UNC at it's own game. UNC are just so much better at doing the same thing.
In Round 1 of Arkansas vs Wofford, TV was making a big deal about Wofford being the smallest team in the Big Dance. Arkansas was the 3rd smallest in the NCAA Tournament. This included the entire teams, so it's a little misleading. Instead, I broke it down by players that play at least 10 minutes per game. Arkansas avg player with 10 minutes per game is 6'5. They have 3 players bigger than 6'6 that give 10+ mpg. UNC is one of the nations longer, bigger teams. Their avg player that plays 10+mpg is 6'7. They have 5 players bigger than 6'6. 7 of their 10 is 6'6+. Sometimes size is overrated other times its not. When you are running doing the same thing as the other guy, superior athletes will win.
Because Arkansas wants to play the same exact way as the Tarheels, it's a problem. It's a natural advantage that Arkansas can't overcome. It's the worst match up for Arkansas in maybe the entire field. Arkansas hasn't played a team this season that has put up more points than them this year. That happens this time and UNC brings in the 15th highest scoring team in College Basketball at 77.6 ppg. Their two highest scoring opponents they played were Kentucky and Ole Miss. They played each team twice, and went 1-3. They only win was a 1 point win at home vs Ole Miss, a team they are better than. But stylistically, it's a bad match up. They lost to Kentucky by 17 and by 16 points. They lost to Ole Miss by 14. Their sole win was a 1 point win over Ole Miss. Quick math will tell you they were outscored by 46 points in those 4 games, thats 12 ppg. That's right where I expect the final score to be for UNC. Lets do the same for UNC. They played Davidson, the 9th best offense in the NBA. They smoked them 90-72! They played Duke twice, going 0-2, but 1 game was in OT at Duke and the other was a close loss. These losses are different because it's a superior team. Arkansas is much closer to Davidson skill level than Duke. UNC beat them by 18.
Now that we covered the larger picture, let me show you one more clear advantage. So hopefully I convinced you that UNC is bigger, more athletic, gets their shots a little easier. Well then what about Rebounding. UNC is 3rd in College Basketball on the offensive boards. UNC is 1st in defensive rebounding. UNC is 1st in total rebounds. Although Arkansas offensive rebounds well, which given their size disadvantage in this game, this is a stat they rely on that they won't do as well with. But they are bad on the defensive side ranking nearly 100th. ore disturbing is they rank 340th+ in offensive rebounds allowed, 180th+ on defensive rebounds. Again, let me restate that out of the 351 Division 1 basketball teams, Arkansas is 341st in allowing opponents on the offensive boards. They are facing the 3rd best offensive rebounding team. This is why it's my biggest bet ever.