Gold Sheet
Boston College 66 - NORTHWESTERN 65—Familiar home territory again
for BC after being forced on the road due to scheduling conflicts (all of the way
to Lake Charles, LA to face McNeese State!) after the Conte Forum was
unavailable due to scheduling commitments earlier in the week. Regardless,
available points are definitely intriguing with capable NU in an expected
strategic chess match between Wildcat HC Bill “Conan O’Brien (without the
beard)” Carmody and shrewd BC counterpart Steve Donahue.
With plenty of three-point shooters and the sr. combo of F John Shurna and
G “Juice” Thompson combining for 45 points in Wednesday’s win over Wis.-
Milwaukee, the Cats should have a chance to trade points. And Carmody has
had some success in recent weeks when altering his defensive recipe, mixing
in more man-to-man looks with his trademark matchup zone and 1-3-1 traps.
BC normally shoots well enough (46%) to deal with those different schemes.
But the Eagles had their problems with Clemson’s similar style this season, and
the gears have occasionally been grinding on attack for BC in recent weeks
(such as the 34% shooting effort that got them bounced from the ACC Tourney
by Brad Brownell’s Tigers and likely kept them out of the Big Dance), which
makes any points offered to NU look very inviting.
★★★College of Charleston 78 - CLEVELAND STATE 71—Don’t expect
this trip to Goodman Arena to fluster Bobby Cremins’ battle-tested College of
Charleston side that has played very competitively this season at Maryland (lost
by only 1), at North Carolina (lost by only 5), as well as at Tennessee, where the
Cougars won by 13. And the SoCon regular-season champs had no trouble in
the first round of the NIT against tourney title holders Dayton, shooting 54%
against the Flyer defense in a comfortable 10-point win.
Moreover, we have no problem recommending against a thin CSU side that
barely goes 6 deep and wore down noticeably as the season progressed,
dropping 9 of its last 11 spread decisions in the process and being fortunate to
rally from a DD deficit in the opening round vs. DD underdog Vermont. Gary
Waters’ Vikings and their 3-G offense have become increasingly reliant upon
the talents of Horizon MVP G Norris Cole (21.8 ppg), who bailed out CSU with
his 27 points against the Catamounts. But we’re not even sure Cole is the best
G on the court, considering he will be matched against Charleston’s SoCon
MVP Andrew Goudelock (23.8 ppg), off his career-best 39-point explosion vs.
Dayton earlier in the week and having scored 27 ppg in the recently-completed
SoCon Tourney. We expect that any points Cremins’ team is receiving from the
oddsmakers won’t even be necessary in order for Cougar backers to cash their
tickets
WESTERN MICHIGAN 78 - Buffalo 72—These MAC reps met earlier this
season, with visiting Buffalo prevailing, 79-68, on this same court back in late
January. In that game, it was the balance of Buffalo (five players scored in
double-digits, led by sharpshooting jr. G Zach Filzen’s 19) that trumped
Western Michigan’s go-to trio of jr. G Demetrius Ward, 6-7 jr. F/C Flenard
Whitfield, and 6-6 frosh super-sub Juwan Howard Jr., who each scored 21
points to combine for all but 5 of the Broncos’ total of 68. Why should the
outcome be any different this time around?
It might not. The Bulls still own the top perimeter gun on the floor in the
dead-eye Filzen, who has already drained 109 three-pointers this season while
converting 42% of his attempts from beyond the arc. However, a few factors
make us think WMU is likely to avenge its earlier setback. The Broncos came
together down the stretch, going 11-3 straight up since its first meeting against
Buffalo (with two of those losses to MAC champ Akron and the other by just 2
points vs. perennial conference power Kent State). That uptick was at least
partly due to increased contributions from WMU’s role players, especially beefy
6-9, 290-lb. frosh C Matt Stainbrook, who played only 7 unproductive minutes in
the earlier clash. And the emergence of Stainbrook (9.8 ppg & 7.9 rpg in the last
9 games; 11 & 11 in first-round CIT victory over Tennessee Tech) to
complement the combative veteran Whitfield (13.1 ppg & 6.4) figures to give the
Broncs a substantial frontcourt edge during this rematch. Lastly, WMU (70%
FTs) hit an uncharacteristically-poor 19 of 34 from the charity stripe in the earlier
clash. More representative accuracy from the FT line by the host might turn the
decision against Buffalo in its second trip to Kalamazoo.
Jacksonville 60 - SMU 59—Sometimes statistics and “measureables”
don’t tell the whole story. Take Jacksonville, for instance. The Dolphins don’t
have a lot of height, with only one player taller than 6-7. They shoot poorly,
hitting just 42% from the field and 31% from the three-point arc while making
only 4.4 treys per game. Yet the Atlantic Sun rep has won 20 games this
season, including road victories at Auburn and Florida! And J’ville’s latest
surprise came earlier this week when it upended heavily-favored East Carolina
on the road in the first round of the CIT. Not that the latter result was totally
unexpected. After all, the Dolphins picked off Arizona State at Tempe in their
NIT opener last year before dying hard as a big dog at Texas Tech in the second
round.
We’re usually not inclined to buck hot pointspread teams such as SMU,
which has covered 11 of its last 14 games. And, unlike J’ville, the Mustangs are
one the more accurate teams in the nation, converting better than 48% of their
FG attempts, along with 40% from the three-point arc and 76% at the FT line.
Plus, 6-9 SMU senior star Papa Dia (18.6 ppg on 57% FGs, 9.4 rpg, 2.3 bpg)
looks like a nightmare matchup for the smallish Dolphins...on paper. But there’s
the rub—it’s hard to measure Jacksonville’s resourcefulness merely on paper.
Crafty head coach Cliff Warren continues to push the right buttons defensively
(Dolphins permitting less than 41% FGs in last seven games), and J’ville (10
different players scored in the first-round victory over the Pirates) continues to
get small contributions from a number of different sources on offense. That’s
why this limited but gritty visitor has a solid shot to spring a small upset at
sparsely-attended Moody Coliseum, where the Mustangs are averaging fewer
than 2000 fans per game and have already suffered six straight-up losses.
HAWAII 77 - San Francisco 67—We must confess to having a soft spot for
the storied but long-dormant San Francisco basketball program. And, while it’s
coming up on 50 years since Bill Russell & K.C. Jones led the Dons to back-toback
NCAA titles, there are definite signs of a resurgence at “The Hilltop.” USF
earned its first postseason invitation in more than a decade despite a roster with
only one senior. And the Dons (six average between 7 and 15 ppg) displayed
their usual balance in Wednesday’s first-round CIT win against Idaho, with five
players contributing double-digit points in the 81-73 home victory over the pesky
Vandals. Plus, USF has been a consistent money-maker over the course of
young, highly-regarded head coach Rex Walters’ third campaign at the helm,
going 18-10 vs. the spread so far this season.
This second-round assignment, however, is likely to be a bit more than the
still-developing Dons can handle. Hawaii has been on a good roll down the
stretch, going 10-4 straight-up and vs. the spread over its last 14 games. The
Warriors’ double-digit win over Portland in the first round of this event was their
seventh victory in the last eight home games, with their only setback at Honolulu
during that span coming in double overtime to WAC champ Utah State.
Meanwhile, USF is just 5-11 straight up away from War Memorial Gym this
season. Hawaii’s recent uptick coincides with the return of blue-collar 6-9 sr. F
Bill Amis (15.4 ppg, 7.6 rpg; missed 10 games with a foot injury), plus the
emergence of younger players such as 6-10 soph Vander Joaquim (9.6 ppg, 8.3
rpg, 1.3 bpg) and hard-driving soph PG Jeremiah Ostrowski, a WR on the
Warrior football team who has dished out 65 assists vs. only 24 turnovers during
the last 11 games. That trio, along with 6-6 jr. sniper Zane Thompson (teambest
15.6 ppg & 41% from three-point arc; originally at Arizona), should do
enough damage against the vulnerable Don defense to lead host UH to a victory
Boston College 66 - NORTHWESTERN 65—Familiar home territory again
for BC after being forced on the road due to scheduling conflicts (all of the way
to Lake Charles, LA to face McNeese State!) after the Conte Forum was
unavailable due to scheduling commitments earlier in the week. Regardless,
available points are definitely intriguing with capable NU in an expected
strategic chess match between Wildcat HC Bill “Conan O’Brien (without the
beard)” Carmody and shrewd BC counterpart Steve Donahue.
With plenty of three-point shooters and the sr. combo of F John Shurna and
G “Juice” Thompson combining for 45 points in Wednesday’s win over Wis.-
Milwaukee, the Cats should have a chance to trade points. And Carmody has
had some success in recent weeks when altering his defensive recipe, mixing
in more man-to-man looks with his trademark matchup zone and 1-3-1 traps.
BC normally shoots well enough (46%) to deal with those different schemes.
But the Eagles had their problems with Clemson’s similar style this season, and
the gears have occasionally been grinding on attack for BC in recent weeks
(such as the 34% shooting effort that got them bounced from the ACC Tourney
by Brad Brownell’s Tigers and likely kept them out of the Big Dance), which
makes any points offered to NU look very inviting.
★★★College of Charleston 78 - CLEVELAND STATE 71—Don’t expect
this trip to Goodman Arena to fluster Bobby Cremins’ battle-tested College of
Charleston side that has played very competitively this season at Maryland (lost
by only 1), at North Carolina (lost by only 5), as well as at Tennessee, where the
Cougars won by 13. And the SoCon regular-season champs had no trouble in
the first round of the NIT against tourney title holders Dayton, shooting 54%
against the Flyer defense in a comfortable 10-point win.
Moreover, we have no problem recommending against a thin CSU side that
barely goes 6 deep and wore down noticeably as the season progressed,
dropping 9 of its last 11 spread decisions in the process and being fortunate to
rally from a DD deficit in the opening round vs. DD underdog Vermont. Gary
Waters’ Vikings and their 3-G offense have become increasingly reliant upon
the talents of Horizon MVP G Norris Cole (21.8 ppg), who bailed out CSU with
his 27 points against the Catamounts. But we’re not even sure Cole is the best
G on the court, considering he will be matched against Charleston’s SoCon
MVP Andrew Goudelock (23.8 ppg), off his career-best 39-point explosion vs.
Dayton earlier in the week and having scored 27 ppg in the recently-completed
SoCon Tourney. We expect that any points Cremins’ team is receiving from the
oddsmakers won’t even be necessary in order for Cougar backers to cash their
tickets
WESTERN MICHIGAN 78 - Buffalo 72—These MAC reps met earlier this
season, with visiting Buffalo prevailing, 79-68, on this same court back in late
January. In that game, it was the balance of Buffalo (five players scored in
double-digits, led by sharpshooting jr. G Zach Filzen’s 19) that trumped
Western Michigan’s go-to trio of jr. G Demetrius Ward, 6-7 jr. F/C Flenard
Whitfield, and 6-6 frosh super-sub Juwan Howard Jr., who each scored 21
points to combine for all but 5 of the Broncos’ total of 68. Why should the
outcome be any different this time around?
It might not. The Bulls still own the top perimeter gun on the floor in the
dead-eye Filzen, who has already drained 109 three-pointers this season while
converting 42% of his attempts from beyond the arc. However, a few factors
make us think WMU is likely to avenge its earlier setback. The Broncos came
together down the stretch, going 11-3 straight up since its first meeting against
Buffalo (with two of those losses to MAC champ Akron and the other by just 2
points vs. perennial conference power Kent State). That uptick was at least
partly due to increased contributions from WMU’s role players, especially beefy
6-9, 290-lb. frosh C Matt Stainbrook, who played only 7 unproductive minutes in
the earlier clash. And the emergence of Stainbrook (9.8 ppg & 7.9 rpg in the last
9 games; 11 & 11 in first-round CIT victory over Tennessee Tech) to
complement the combative veteran Whitfield (13.1 ppg & 6.4) figures to give the
Broncs a substantial frontcourt edge during this rematch. Lastly, WMU (70%
FTs) hit an uncharacteristically-poor 19 of 34 from the charity stripe in the earlier
clash. More representative accuracy from the FT line by the host might turn the
decision against Buffalo in its second trip to Kalamazoo.
Jacksonville 60 - SMU 59—Sometimes statistics and “measureables”
don’t tell the whole story. Take Jacksonville, for instance. The Dolphins don’t
have a lot of height, with only one player taller than 6-7. They shoot poorly,
hitting just 42% from the field and 31% from the three-point arc while making
only 4.4 treys per game. Yet the Atlantic Sun rep has won 20 games this
season, including road victories at Auburn and Florida! And J’ville’s latest
surprise came earlier this week when it upended heavily-favored East Carolina
on the road in the first round of the CIT. Not that the latter result was totally
unexpected. After all, the Dolphins picked off Arizona State at Tempe in their
NIT opener last year before dying hard as a big dog at Texas Tech in the second
round.
We’re usually not inclined to buck hot pointspread teams such as SMU,
which has covered 11 of its last 14 games. And, unlike J’ville, the Mustangs are
one the more accurate teams in the nation, converting better than 48% of their
FG attempts, along with 40% from the three-point arc and 76% at the FT line.
Plus, 6-9 SMU senior star Papa Dia (18.6 ppg on 57% FGs, 9.4 rpg, 2.3 bpg)
looks like a nightmare matchup for the smallish Dolphins...on paper. But there’s
the rub—it’s hard to measure Jacksonville’s resourcefulness merely on paper.
Crafty head coach Cliff Warren continues to push the right buttons defensively
(Dolphins permitting less than 41% FGs in last seven games), and J’ville (10
different players scored in the first-round victory over the Pirates) continues to
get small contributions from a number of different sources on offense. That’s
why this limited but gritty visitor has a solid shot to spring a small upset at
sparsely-attended Moody Coliseum, where the Mustangs are averaging fewer
than 2000 fans per game and have already suffered six straight-up losses.
HAWAII 77 - San Francisco 67—We must confess to having a soft spot for
the storied but long-dormant San Francisco basketball program. And, while it’s
coming up on 50 years since Bill Russell & K.C. Jones led the Dons to back-toback
NCAA titles, there are definite signs of a resurgence at “The Hilltop.” USF
earned its first postseason invitation in more than a decade despite a roster with
only one senior. And the Dons (six average between 7 and 15 ppg) displayed
their usual balance in Wednesday’s first-round CIT win against Idaho, with five
players contributing double-digit points in the 81-73 home victory over the pesky
Vandals. Plus, USF has been a consistent money-maker over the course of
young, highly-regarded head coach Rex Walters’ third campaign at the helm,
going 18-10 vs. the spread so far this season.
This second-round assignment, however, is likely to be a bit more than the
still-developing Dons can handle. Hawaii has been on a good roll down the
stretch, going 10-4 straight-up and vs. the spread over its last 14 games. The
Warriors’ double-digit win over Portland in the first round of this event was their
seventh victory in the last eight home games, with their only setback at Honolulu
during that span coming in double overtime to WAC champ Utah State.
Meanwhile, USF is just 5-11 straight up away from War Memorial Gym this
season. Hawaii’s recent uptick coincides with the return of blue-collar 6-9 sr. F
Bill Amis (15.4 ppg, 7.6 rpg; missed 10 games with a foot injury), plus the
emergence of younger players such as 6-10 soph Vander Joaquim (9.6 ppg, 8.3
rpg, 1.3 bpg) and hard-driving soph PG Jeremiah Ostrowski, a WR on the
Warrior football team who has dished out 65 assists vs. only 24 turnovers during
the last 11 games. That trio, along with 6-6 jr. sniper Zane Thompson (teambest
15.6 ppg & 41% from three-point arc; originally at Arizona), should do
enough damage against the vulnerable Don defense to lead host UH to a victory
