FOUR VALUES FUND
Hope you enjoyed that 5-0 clean sweep last night.
Saturday, March 14 picks.. all start times are Eastern
Spain Soccer: Barcelona/Eibar – Over 3.5 goals -103 (2 units) (1 pm start time)
Holland Soccer: Twente/Zwolle – Over 3 goals +112 (2 units) (1:30 pm start time)
England Soccer: Burnley/Manchester City – Over 3 goals +114 (1 unit) (1:30 pm start time)
NCAAB: Wisconsin -9.5 points -110 (1 unit) (1 pm start time)
NCAAB: SMU -3 points -110 (1 unit) (3 pm start time)
NCAAB: Central Michigan +3 points -110 (1 unit) (7:30 pm start time)
NBA: Nets -5.5 points -110 (1 unit) (7:30 pm start time)
Hope you enjoyed that 5-0 clean sweep last night.
Saturday, March 14 picks.. all start times are Eastern
Spain Soccer: Barcelona/Eibar – Over 3.5 goals -103 (2 units) (1 pm start time)
Holland Soccer: Twente/Zwolle – Over 3 goals +112 (2 units) (1:30 pm start time)
England Soccer: Burnley/Manchester City – Over 3 goals +114 (1 unit) (1:30 pm start time)
NCAAB: Wisconsin -9.5 points -110 (1 unit) (1 pm start time)
NCAAB: SMU -3 points -110 (1 unit) (3 pm start time)
NCAAB: Central Michigan +3 points -110 (1 unit) (7:30 pm start time)
NBA: Nets -5.5 points -110 (1 unit) (7:30 pm start time)
Sportswagers
Boston @ PITTSBURGH
Boston +145 over PITTSBURGH
1:05 PM EST. OT included. The Penguins are hot with seven wins over their past nine games but a close look reveals that it’s a lot more impressive on paper than it is on the ice. Those seven wins occurred against Edmonton, Los Angeles, Anaheim, Columbus, Florida, Washington and St. Louis. In the 1-0 victory over the Kings, Pittsburgh was outshot 31-18. Against the Ducks, the Pens managed a measly 21 shots on net while surrendering 29 in a 5-2 win. Against Edmonton, the Pens scored four goals on their first 13 shots and subsequently blew a 4-0 lead before winning it in the last five minutes. Prior to that stretch of unimpressive games, the Pens lost seven of eight games. The Penguins are a strong offensive squad but they spend more time in their own end than the opposition’s almost every game and that’s even more prevalent against the upper echelon teams in the league.
There’s plenty to like about the Bruins here taking back a tag. For one, they’re hotter than the Penguins. Boston has picked up 13 out of a possible 14 points over their last seven games. During that span they have scored three goals or more in every game. Among their victims were Tampa Bay, Detroit and the red hot Senators. What’s becoming more noticeable for the Bruins recently is their outstanding group of puck-moving defensemen that continue to put the forwards in a position to create and score. Boston was outplayed and outshot in a few of those seven games but suddenly Tuukka Rask has caught fire again. Rask alone makes the Bruins worthy of backing here because he can win games on his own. Thing is, we don’t need Rask to steal this one because the Bruins are playing well enough to defeat this overvalued host even with an adequate game by Rask. Note the early start time and invest.
Our Pick
Boston +145 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.90)
Toronto @ VANCOUVER
VANCOUVER -1½ +137 over Toronto
OT included. The Maple Leafs have gone from putrid to rancid. Their best player over the past month has been David Booth, a guy that needs someone to tie his shoes because he’s had 10 concussion injuries and has played for three teams over his last four full seasons. The Maple Leafs recently suspended Nazem Kadri three games for chewing gum in class. Kadri served his detention and will be back tonight. We bet he can’t wait. Dion Phaneuf returned from injury nine games ago against Philadelphia. The Leafs were outshot in that game 49-17. When the opposition scores, you can be 100% guaranteed of seeing Phaneuf either way out of position or on his knees out of position. Since Phaneuf’s return, the Leafs have two wins. One came in Florida against two broken down goalies that couldn’t stand up. The Leafs were outshot in the third period of that game, 17-7 and outshot overall, 42-32. Toronto’s other victory was against the Sabres in a shootout. The Maple Leafs are not interested at all. Given the choice of having root canal done or playing a hockey game in Vancouver, 99% of them would choose root canal. David Booth would choose hockey. Against a very lethargic Calgary team last night, the Leafs were buried 6-3 while surrendering two shorthanded goals. Calgary isn’t often listless but it was their second game back after a grueling road trip and they were. Last Saturday against St. Louis, the score might as well have been 15-1 instead of 6-1 because that’s how bad this team was. The Leafs are a dysfunctional dumpster fire right now. They keep getting humiliated over and over and we’re not sure which management fool is pulling the strings. Playing their third game in four days, the tail end of back-to-backs and their fifth game in seven days, there is more humiliation waiting for them here.
The Canucks are coming off a rather lackluster performance against Los Angeles in which they were defeated 4-0. Eddie Lack had a rare bad game. The Canucks went into Toronto way back in December on Hockey Night in Canada’s featured Saturday game and were buried 5-2 by the Leafs. Vancouver outshot Toronto 46-28. The Canucks have recent wins over the Islanders, Boston, St. Louis, San Jose and Anaheim. They are fighting for their playoff lives with the Kings, Winnipeg, San Jose and Minnesota breathing down their necks. Losing to the Maple Leafs is not an option. The Canucks will dominate this game. That’s as sure a thing as the St. Louis Blues making the playoffs. If the Leafs stay within one goal, good for them but the more likely scenario is that the Maple leafs lose by three, four or more goals and we have no fear whasoever of spotting the pucks.
Our Pick
VANCOUVER -1½ +137 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.74)
Minnesota @ ST. LOUIS
Minnesota +140 over ST. LOUIS
OT included. These two have only played once this year back in late November and the Blues skated away with a 3-2 OT victory. That was against Niklas Backstrom. The Wild outshot the Blue Notes 38-26 in that game and now it is they who have the edge in net with Devan Dubnyk against Brian Elliott. Elliott has had plenty of stinkers this year and has simply not been as consistent as Dubnyk has. That’s not the only reason to take the plus money here. St. Louis has won three in a row but the victories occurred against Philadelphia, Toronto and Winnipeg. Against a banged up Jets’ team Winnipeg needed a goal that was scored from center ice to win it with a minute to go in regulation after blowing a 4-1 lead. Prior to defeating those three non-playoff bound clubs, St. Louis went 6-7 over a 13-game stretch. Against Philadelphia, Winnipeg and Toronto, the Blues racked up 14 minor penalties and that’s a tell-tale sign of a team running into trouble in their own end. Even against Toronto in what some have called the Maple Leafs worst effort in a decade, the Blues spent 10 minutes in the box serving five minors.
The Wild played last night against Anaheim and lost 2-1. After a recent loss to Colorado, the Wild have now dropped two of three but pay no attention to that. More notable is that in its two losses to Colorado and Anaheim, Minnesota dominated time of possession and shots and goal. They outshot Anaheim 33-24 last night and they outshot the Avs 34-21 last Sunday. In between those two games they buried the Devils 6-2. Prior to that, the Wild won 16 of 19 games. Let’s assume for a second that they defeated Anaheim and Colorado. They absolutely deserved to win but they didn’t. Had that occurred we would be talking about a team with 19 wins in their past 22 games and this game would not be priced anywhere near this range. Once again the market is putting way too much emphasis on wins and losses. Fact is, no team in the West is playing better than the Wild right now. They continue to lead the NHL in shots allowed per game and puck possession time. They have allowed two goals or less in 11 of their last 12 games. In a matchup where Minnesota’s chances of winning are every bit as good as the Blues chances, we must play the value and there is plenty of it here in backing this determined guest.
Our Pick
Minnesota +140 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.80)
New Jersey @ ARIZONA
ARIZONA +118 over New Jersey
OT included. We can’t even imagine what the lines for tickets outside of Jobing.com Arena will look like to see this classic. Tomorrow morning they’ll be more people looking up the results for the PBA International-World Bowling Tour Brunswick Euro Challenge in Munich, Germany than the results of this game. What’s even more preposterous is that the Devils are favored to win on the road. The Devils have 11 road wins in 33 games. Over their last 43 OT games between this year and last, the Devils have won 10 and lost 33 so when you play them, it’s almost like spotting a half puck because they rarely win when the game goes to OT. The Devils average 24 shots on net per game. Only the Sabres are worse. Remember, that’s an average so in a sub-par effort, New Jesrsey is good for about 18 shots on net. The Devils have dropped two straight at Minnesota and Colorado while being outscored 8-3. The Devils win expectation is as low as any team not named Buffalo and on the road that win expectation drops even lower. This is the final game of New Jersey’s modest three-game trip but it’s the third different time zone after playing in the high altitude of Denver on Thursday. A trip to Arizona is more like a holiday for these guys as opposed to an important hockey game. The Devils return to the Rock on Tuesday to play the Penguins.
This isn’t exactly a do or die game for the Coyotes either but this Dave Tippett coached team rarely takes a night off. What the ‘Yotes lack in talent they make up for in heart, desire and effort. The Coyotes last three games occurred against Montreal, Chicago and Nashville and they were in a position to win them all. In fact, the ‘Yotes last eight games all came against playoff bound teams (Chicago, Nashville, Montreal, Vancouver, Anaheim, Boston, N.Y.I. and N.Y.R.) and they gave plenty of those teams a battle while defeating the Canucks. The Coyotes finally get to play a team that is on par with them and that plays slower than most. After their previous eight games against outstanding competition, the Coyotes figure to be well-prepped to go after the Devils. These Coyotes want to win and they absolutely have the horses to defeat a team that is as beatable as the Devils are. The Devils have seven more wins than the Coyotes but Arizona has played the fourth toughest schedule in the NHL. Once again, wins and losses dictate the betting line and once again we’ll attack that market flaw. Regardless of outcome, New Jersey in no way warrants being road chalk here.
Our Pick
ARIZONA +118 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.36)
Calgary @ COLORADO
Calgary +130 over COLORADO
OT included. No question that the Avalanche are playing loose and they’re playing much better lately. The Avs are 9-4 over their past 13 games and over that stretch they have defeated some solid teams like Minnesota, St. Louis, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Tampa Bay and Dallas to name a few. However, the Avs are still too big a risk as the chalk. They are much more playable as a pooch at home and that was their status in a bunch of those aforementioned games. Colorado’s many flaws make them better suited in the underdog role and very risky in the favorite’s role. We’ll look to take advantage of that but this one is not about fading the Avs as much as it is about taking back another tag on the Flames.
This is becoming redundant already. Calgary continues to be disrespected by the market almost every game. If Los Angeles or even San Jose were in Colorado tonight, they would both probably be favored. L.A. for sure would be. We’re not comparing the Flames to the Kings but in terms of determination and effort, damn straight we’re comparing the Flames to anyone. The Flames were written off when Mark Giordano went down. All they’ve done since his injury is pick up 13 out of a possible 16 points. Calgary’s only regulation loss since Giordano’s injury was against the scorching hot Rangers, 1-0. Furthermore, Calgary’s offense is on fire, yet they are still way undervalued. The Flames have scored four goals or more in five straight games. They have scored six goals in each of their past two games. The Gaudreau/Monahan/Hudler line is playing and producing as well as anyone right now. Trust us when we tell you that the Flames were lethargic last night against the Maple Leafs but they’ll be none of that tonight. Furthermore, the Flames seldom lose to non-playoff bound teams. In fact, over their last 35 games, the only non-playoff teams they have lost to were Dallas, Ottawa (in OT) and Florida. Those three are “good” non-playoff teams that all still have a legit shot of sneaking in. In the end, the Flames have been one of the toughest outs all year for non-playoff teams and playoff teams for that matter. The value on Calgary is not gone and as long as that continues, we’re happy to keep playing them.
Our Pick
Calgary +130 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.60)
NHL 2014-15 Year-to-Date
Boston @ PITTSBURGH
Boston +145 over PITTSBURGH
1:05 PM EST. OT included. The Penguins are hot with seven wins over their past nine games but a close look reveals that it’s a lot more impressive on paper than it is on the ice. Those seven wins occurred against Edmonton, Los Angeles, Anaheim, Columbus, Florida, Washington and St. Louis. In the 1-0 victory over the Kings, Pittsburgh was outshot 31-18. Against the Ducks, the Pens managed a measly 21 shots on net while surrendering 29 in a 5-2 win. Against Edmonton, the Pens scored four goals on their first 13 shots and subsequently blew a 4-0 lead before winning it in the last five minutes. Prior to that stretch of unimpressive games, the Pens lost seven of eight games. The Penguins are a strong offensive squad but they spend more time in their own end than the opposition’s almost every game and that’s even more prevalent against the upper echelon teams in the league.
There’s plenty to like about the Bruins here taking back a tag. For one, they’re hotter than the Penguins. Boston has picked up 13 out of a possible 14 points over their last seven games. During that span they have scored three goals or more in every game. Among their victims were Tampa Bay, Detroit and the red hot Senators. What’s becoming more noticeable for the Bruins recently is their outstanding group of puck-moving defensemen that continue to put the forwards in a position to create and score. Boston was outplayed and outshot in a few of those seven games but suddenly Tuukka Rask has caught fire again. Rask alone makes the Bruins worthy of backing here because he can win games on his own. Thing is, we don’t need Rask to steal this one because the Bruins are playing well enough to defeat this overvalued host even with an adequate game by Rask. Note the early start time and invest.
Our Pick
Boston +145 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.90)
Toronto @ VANCOUVER
VANCOUVER -1½ +137 over Toronto
OT included. The Maple Leafs have gone from putrid to rancid. Their best player over the past month has been David Booth, a guy that needs someone to tie his shoes because he’s had 10 concussion injuries and has played for three teams over his last four full seasons. The Maple Leafs recently suspended Nazem Kadri three games for chewing gum in class. Kadri served his detention and will be back tonight. We bet he can’t wait. Dion Phaneuf returned from injury nine games ago against Philadelphia. The Leafs were outshot in that game 49-17. When the opposition scores, you can be 100% guaranteed of seeing Phaneuf either way out of position or on his knees out of position. Since Phaneuf’s return, the Leafs have two wins. One came in Florida against two broken down goalies that couldn’t stand up. The Leafs were outshot in the third period of that game, 17-7 and outshot overall, 42-32. Toronto’s other victory was against the Sabres in a shootout. The Maple Leafs are not interested at all. Given the choice of having root canal done or playing a hockey game in Vancouver, 99% of them would choose root canal. David Booth would choose hockey. Against a very lethargic Calgary team last night, the Leafs were buried 6-3 while surrendering two shorthanded goals. Calgary isn’t often listless but it was their second game back after a grueling road trip and they were. Last Saturday against St. Louis, the score might as well have been 15-1 instead of 6-1 because that’s how bad this team was. The Leafs are a dysfunctional dumpster fire right now. They keep getting humiliated over and over and we’re not sure which management fool is pulling the strings. Playing their third game in four days, the tail end of back-to-backs and their fifth game in seven days, there is more humiliation waiting for them here.
The Canucks are coming off a rather lackluster performance against Los Angeles in which they were defeated 4-0. Eddie Lack had a rare bad game. The Canucks went into Toronto way back in December on Hockey Night in Canada’s featured Saturday game and were buried 5-2 by the Leafs. Vancouver outshot Toronto 46-28. The Canucks have recent wins over the Islanders, Boston, St. Louis, San Jose and Anaheim. They are fighting for their playoff lives with the Kings, Winnipeg, San Jose and Minnesota breathing down their necks. Losing to the Maple Leafs is not an option. The Canucks will dominate this game. That’s as sure a thing as the St. Louis Blues making the playoffs. If the Leafs stay within one goal, good for them but the more likely scenario is that the Maple leafs lose by three, four or more goals and we have no fear whasoever of spotting the pucks.
Our Pick
VANCOUVER -1½ +137 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.74)
Minnesota @ ST. LOUIS
Minnesota +140 over ST. LOUIS
OT included. These two have only played once this year back in late November and the Blues skated away with a 3-2 OT victory. That was against Niklas Backstrom. The Wild outshot the Blue Notes 38-26 in that game and now it is they who have the edge in net with Devan Dubnyk against Brian Elliott. Elliott has had plenty of stinkers this year and has simply not been as consistent as Dubnyk has. That’s not the only reason to take the plus money here. St. Louis has won three in a row but the victories occurred against Philadelphia, Toronto and Winnipeg. Against a banged up Jets’ team Winnipeg needed a goal that was scored from center ice to win it with a minute to go in regulation after blowing a 4-1 lead. Prior to defeating those three non-playoff bound clubs, St. Louis went 6-7 over a 13-game stretch. Against Philadelphia, Winnipeg and Toronto, the Blues racked up 14 minor penalties and that’s a tell-tale sign of a team running into trouble in their own end. Even against Toronto in what some have called the Maple Leafs worst effort in a decade, the Blues spent 10 minutes in the box serving five minors.
The Wild played last night against Anaheim and lost 2-1. After a recent loss to Colorado, the Wild have now dropped two of three but pay no attention to that. More notable is that in its two losses to Colorado and Anaheim, Minnesota dominated time of possession and shots and goal. They outshot Anaheim 33-24 last night and they outshot the Avs 34-21 last Sunday. In between those two games they buried the Devils 6-2. Prior to that, the Wild won 16 of 19 games. Let’s assume for a second that they defeated Anaheim and Colorado. They absolutely deserved to win but they didn’t. Had that occurred we would be talking about a team with 19 wins in their past 22 games and this game would not be priced anywhere near this range. Once again the market is putting way too much emphasis on wins and losses. Fact is, no team in the West is playing better than the Wild right now. They continue to lead the NHL in shots allowed per game and puck possession time. They have allowed two goals or less in 11 of their last 12 games. In a matchup where Minnesota’s chances of winning are every bit as good as the Blues chances, we must play the value and there is plenty of it here in backing this determined guest.
Our Pick
Minnesota +140 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.80)
New Jersey @ ARIZONA
ARIZONA +118 over New Jersey
OT included. We can’t even imagine what the lines for tickets outside of Jobing.com Arena will look like to see this classic. Tomorrow morning they’ll be more people looking up the results for the PBA International-World Bowling Tour Brunswick Euro Challenge in Munich, Germany than the results of this game. What’s even more preposterous is that the Devils are favored to win on the road. The Devils have 11 road wins in 33 games. Over their last 43 OT games between this year and last, the Devils have won 10 and lost 33 so when you play them, it’s almost like spotting a half puck because they rarely win when the game goes to OT. The Devils average 24 shots on net per game. Only the Sabres are worse. Remember, that’s an average so in a sub-par effort, New Jesrsey is good for about 18 shots on net. The Devils have dropped two straight at Minnesota and Colorado while being outscored 8-3. The Devils win expectation is as low as any team not named Buffalo and on the road that win expectation drops even lower. This is the final game of New Jersey’s modest three-game trip but it’s the third different time zone after playing in the high altitude of Denver on Thursday. A trip to Arizona is more like a holiday for these guys as opposed to an important hockey game. The Devils return to the Rock on Tuesday to play the Penguins.
This isn’t exactly a do or die game for the Coyotes either but this Dave Tippett coached team rarely takes a night off. What the ‘Yotes lack in talent they make up for in heart, desire and effort. The Coyotes last three games occurred against Montreal, Chicago and Nashville and they were in a position to win them all. In fact, the ‘Yotes last eight games all came against playoff bound teams (Chicago, Nashville, Montreal, Vancouver, Anaheim, Boston, N.Y.I. and N.Y.R.) and they gave plenty of those teams a battle while defeating the Canucks. The Coyotes finally get to play a team that is on par with them and that plays slower than most. After their previous eight games against outstanding competition, the Coyotes figure to be well-prepped to go after the Devils. These Coyotes want to win and they absolutely have the horses to defeat a team that is as beatable as the Devils are. The Devils have seven more wins than the Coyotes but Arizona has played the fourth toughest schedule in the NHL. Once again, wins and losses dictate the betting line and once again we’ll attack that market flaw. Regardless of outcome, New Jersey in no way warrants being road chalk here.
Our Pick
ARIZONA +118 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.36)
Calgary @ COLORADO
Calgary +130 over COLORADO
OT included. No question that the Avalanche are playing loose and they’re playing much better lately. The Avs are 9-4 over their past 13 games and over that stretch they have defeated some solid teams like Minnesota, St. Louis, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Tampa Bay and Dallas to name a few. However, the Avs are still too big a risk as the chalk. They are much more playable as a pooch at home and that was their status in a bunch of those aforementioned games. Colorado’s many flaws make them better suited in the underdog role and very risky in the favorite’s role. We’ll look to take advantage of that but this one is not about fading the Avs as much as it is about taking back another tag on the Flames.
This is becoming redundant already. Calgary continues to be disrespected by the market almost every game. If Los Angeles or even San Jose were in Colorado tonight, they would both probably be favored. L.A. for sure would be. We’re not comparing the Flames to the Kings but in terms of determination and effort, damn straight we’re comparing the Flames to anyone. The Flames were written off when Mark Giordano went down. All they’ve done since his injury is pick up 13 out of a possible 16 points. Calgary’s only regulation loss since Giordano’s injury was against the scorching hot Rangers, 1-0. Furthermore, Calgary’s offense is on fire, yet they are still way undervalued. The Flames have scored four goals or more in five straight games. They have scored six goals in each of their past two games. The Gaudreau/Monahan/Hudler line is playing and producing as well as anyone right now. Trust us when we tell you that the Flames were lethargic last night against the Maple Leafs but they’ll be none of that tonight. Furthermore, the Flames seldom lose to non-playoff bound teams. In fact, over their last 35 games, the only non-playoff teams they have lost to were Dallas, Ottawa (in OT) and Florida. Those three are “good” non-playoff teams that all still have a legit shot of sneaking in. In the end, the Flames have been one of the toughest outs all year for non-playoff teams and playoff teams for that matter. The value on Calgary is not gone and as long as that continues, we’re happy to keep playing them.
Our Pick
Calgary +130 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.60)
NHL 2014-15 Year-to-Date
| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | +3.54 |
| Last 30 Days | 30 | 39 | 0.00 | -4.40 |
| Season to Date | 149 | 171 | 0.00 | +29.99 |
