Mike Hook | CBB Sides Sat, 02/13/10 - 10:00 PM *†
triple-dime bet 641 Loyola Mary 5.0 (-120) BetUS vs 642 San Francisco
Analysis: LOYOLA MARYMOUNT +5 San Francisco (3 UNITS).....No joke, the wrong team is favored here. I know that seems hard to believe, considering San Francisco is the home team and they are coming off a 30 point win over Pepperdine. I also realize that San Francisco has recently beaten Gonzaga at home, AND they've already beaten LMU in LMU's home gym. How in the world could i back LMU here? Simple, this line is flat too low, and i'll explain.
LMU is a tough team for oddsmakers to figure out. That's because they have been killed by injuries so often this season. There is one constant though, and that's when this team is healthy they play great basketball together. Proof of that is up and down the card this year, notably on the road against Notre Dame, where they beat the Irish OUTRIGHT as 20 point underdogs. LMU has also beaten USC OUTRIGHT as a double digit underdog. Both of these games came when this team was healthy. As you can best guess, LMU is nearly 100% healthy as they finish their season right now. LMU can cause havoc in the upcoming WCC conference tournament with the way they are playing right now, and San Francisco will realize this tonight.
Again, San Francisco has been playing great ball of late. I cant say enough about their win against Gonzaga. That was a great win for this team, their signature win of the season. In their last game, they had some revenge against Pepperdine, and beat them by 30 points. That win looked great, but this Pepperdine has thrown in the towel. One of my only regrets the other day was not taking Pepperdine minus the points in that game. I believe San Francisco has now completely peaked, and they will have a letdown tonight. The difference between Pepperdine and LMU right now is severe. You also must realize right now that anyone backing San Francisco is paying a huge� premium in backing this team right now. Everyone knows about their Gonzaga win, so everyone thinks this is now the "it" team on the West Coast. Now, San Francisco is everyone's sleeper pick in the west. Trust me, oddsmakers know this, and they will take advantage of this. Proof of exactly this is today's line. This line is too low, and the public is going to get worked over backing San Francisco tonight. Not us...
These two teams have already clashed this year. 3 things stand out in that game on January 14th. First and foremost, San Francisco won that game 70-67. The stud forward Drew Vinney didn't play for LMU in that game. Vinney is only the leading scorer and rebounder for LMU. Vinney not playing in that game was a huge blow for LMU, and it showed throughout in the game. Lastly, San Francisco shot 22 more free throws that LMU in that contest. Yes, 22 more free throws for the visiting team. Earlier this season i played off that exact stat, and have done well in San Francisco games. I'm telling you right now, things will be completely different tonight. San Francisco is in for a fight of a game, as LMU wants that 4th spot that San Francisco currently holds in conference play. LMU is on revenge, and fully healthy. They will be ready to go tonight, and i fully expect LMU to play well tonight in a role they relish.
I love everything about this game, from the opening number to the current betting action. I know this game looks a bit sketchy, but oddsmakers set this line for a reason. We must take advantage on the uneducated public that is blindly backing San Francisco in the ABSOLUTE worst spot. Games like this is exactly why we are so good at cashing tickets. We do our homework, and look at every single possible angle heading into the game. I'm damn confident we cash this ticket tonight, so let's hit the books hard. LOYOLA MARYMOUNT +5 is our 3 UNIT GAME of the DAY!
As always, please check out my thread in the pregame forums. I have other plays and leans listed there, and even a Slam Dunk prop wager. Let's have a great night as we head into Valentine's Day!
triple-dime bet 641 Loyola Mary 5.0 (-120) BetUS vs 642 San Francisco
Analysis: LOYOLA MARYMOUNT +5 San Francisco (3 UNITS).....No joke, the wrong team is favored here. I know that seems hard to believe, considering San Francisco is the home team and they are coming off a 30 point win over Pepperdine. I also realize that San Francisco has recently beaten Gonzaga at home, AND they've already beaten LMU in LMU's home gym. How in the world could i back LMU here? Simple, this line is flat too low, and i'll explain.
LMU is a tough team for oddsmakers to figure out. That's because they have been killed by injuries so often this season. There is one constant though, and that's when this team is healthy they play great basketball together. Proof of that is up and down the card this year, notably on the road against Notre Dame, where they beat the Irish OUTRIGHT as 20 point underdogs. LMU has also beaten USC OUTRIGHT as a double digit underdog. Both of these games came when this team was healthy. As you can best guess, LMU is nearly 100% healthy as they finish their season right now. LMU can cause havoc in the upcoming WCC conference tournament with the way they are playing right now, and San Francisco will realize this tonight.
Again, San Francisco has been playing great ball of late. I cant say enough about their win against Gonzaga. That was a great win for this team, their signature win of the season. In their last game, they had some revenge against Pepperdine, and beat them by 30 points. That win looked great, but this Pepperdine has thrown in the towel. One of my only regrets the other day was not taking Pepperdine minus the points in that game. I believe San Francisco has now completely peaked, and they will have a letdown tonight. The difference between Pepperdine and LMU right now is severe. You also must realize right now that anyone backing San Francisco is paying a huge� premium in backing this team right now. Everyone knows about their Gonzaga win, so everyone thinks this is now the "it" team on the West Coast. Now, San Francisco is everyone's sleeper pick in the west. Trust me, oddsmakers know this, and they will take advantage of this. Proof of exactly this is today's line. This line is too low, and the public is going to get worked over backing San Francisco tonight. Not us...
These two teams have already clashed this year. 3 things stand out in that game on January 14th. First and foremost, San Francisco won that game 70-67. The stud forward Drew Vinney didn't play for LMU in that game. Vinney is only the leading scorer and rebounder for LMU. Vinney not playing in that game was a huge blow for LMU, and it showed throughout in the game. Lastly, San Francisco shot 22 more free throws that LMU in that contest. Yes, 22 more free throws for the visiting team. Earlier this season i played off that exact stat, and have done well in San Francisco games. I'm telling you right now, things will be completely different tonight. San Francisco is in for a fight of a game, as LMU wants that 4th spot that San Francisco currently holds in conference play. LMU is on revenge, and fully healthy. They will be ready to go tonight, and i fully expect LMU to play well tonight in a role they relish.
I love everything about this game, from the opening number to the current betting action. I know this game looks a bit sketchy, but oddsmakers set this line for a reason. We must take advantage on the uneducated public that is blindly backing San Francisco in the ABSOLUTE worst spot. Games like this is exactly why we are so good at cashing tickets. We do our homework, and look at every single possible angle heading into the game. I'm damn confident we cash this ticket tonight, so let's hit the books hard. LOYOLA MARYMOUNT +5 is our 3 UNIT GAME of the DAY!
As always, please check out my thread in the pregame forums. I have other plays and leans listed there, and even a Slam Dunk prop wager. Let's have a great night as we head into Valentine's Day!
hno:
