Dave Malinksy Saturday
Saturday: Afternoon 6* and 5* Plays key the NCAA Ticket
It is going to be another busy Saturday as the Basketball momentum continues to build, and it will be a case of Quality and Quantity - an explosive afternoon starts with the Maryland/Duke showdown making our ticket, then a game that will carry our Top 6* Rating (369-256-12), and a 5* that goes at 4:00 Eastern. We also have one on the house, as we break down Iowa/Purdue for free below, and there are Totals and Night plays yet to come.
4* #513 MARYLAND over DUKE ( L )
We do not have to spend too much time going into why a Gary Williams team will almost always fit under our “Tough Out” umbrella – he brings in players that compete in a manner that fits his own persona, and it has led us to cash a lot of road underdog tickets through the years. And with Greivis Vasquez on the court the Terrapins have been simply sparkling in this role, on a 14-5-1 ATS run as A.C.C. road dogs since the middle of his FR season, a season that culminated with the outright upset of Duke on this court in the final road game (Vasquez had 13 points and 12 assists). But it is not that game that creates the spark here, it is instead the dismal 85-44 loss suffered on this court LY, one of the worst losses every for a Williams team, and as poorly of a game as Vasquez has played (four points on 2-10 shooting, four turnovers, one assist). Now with that major winter storm enabling Maryland to put the full focus on this game, a high energy level is brought to a setting that makes it awfully difficult for Duke to build any kind of margin.While Maryland was getting Wednesday off, Duke was getting a tough 64-54 grinder of a win at North Carolina in a game that was much closer than the final score shows. Jon Scheyer and Kyle Singler had to go the full 40 minutes that night, while Nolan Smith played 39, and the potential loss of Lance Thomas for today makes it an even more fragile rotation (Thomas has not practiced since that game, and even if he does go here will not be 100 percent). This is not a typical Duke team that wears you down with that deep stock of talent - Mike Krzyzewski has only had seven players going more than 10 minutes per game in A.C.C. action, with only Mason Plumlee and Brian Zoubek seeing steady time off of the bench, and neither of those two are the ideal players to replace Smith against the quickness and athleticism that Maryland brings to the table.The minutes are already taking a toll on Scheyer and Singler, who are averaging exhausting counts of 38.5 and 38.0 in A.C.C. action. Scheyer is shooting just 40.9 percent, with the burden of having to play the point catching up to him, while Singler is only at 40.0. You do not get fresher at this time of the season, especially vs. this class of competition, and while they may have the basketball savvy to gut out a win this afternoon, asking for this level of margin is way too much.
6* #518 BAYLOR over MISSOURI ( L )
The last time these two met there was a lot at stake – the Big 12 tourney championship, and a 6* for us. And it was never in doubt, with the Missouri presses able to wear out a Baylor team that simply had nothing left in the tank after beating Nebraska, Kansas and Texas the previous three days. But oh how the setting changes for this one. Now the Bears are the better team, playing with a special chip on their shoulder to avenge that title tilt defeat, and the matchups are in place for something special.Missouri has been a meal ticket for us the past two seasons, as we continue to see that it is more than just those frenetic presses from Mike Anderson’s team, but also some savvy basketball at the offensive end. But there is a major difference this time – having lost NBA draft choices DeMarre Carroll and Leo Lyons up front, and sharp-shooter Matt Lawrence, there is a real problem in converting those turnovers into points. A team that led the nation in assists per game LY, and was second in assist to TO ratio, is finding points hard to come by no matter how many passes they throw because the shooters and finishers are not there. The Tigers are shooting just 40.0 percent in Big 12 play, and of the eight players going at least 15 minutes per game in conference action, four are shooting 35.6 percent or less. That is ugly, and it does not turn around against that talented and deep Baylor front-court, led by Epke Udoh and his 97 blocked shots. When Missouri is forced to run half-court sets, we expect the Baylor defense to be a dominating presence, and the battle of the boards should be no contest, with the Bears at +5.3 in league play and the Tigers -4.7.So can Baylor avoid the TO’s that create so much havoc in Missouri games? The pieces are there. While floor leader Tweety Carter was one of many exhausted Bears in LY’s championship tilt, he has been on the court for many successes against Anderson’s schemes, like a 97-83 rout in Columbia in his FR season, and he and LaceDarius Dunn saw a lot of time together in the back-court in the 100-89 win here two years ago. As a team they are playing at a high level of confidence on this court and the results have been dominating – since January 1st they have routed Oklahoma (91-60), Massachusetts (71-45), Oklahoma State (83-70) and Iowa State (84-63), while losing at the gun to Kansas State in a game in which they competed tenaciously. There is the size, depth and athleticism to not only cope with the Tiger presses but to actually attack them and go after easy baskets, with that size advantage inside leading to easy finishes, and they are also a difficult team to chase down from behind with that 77.1 percent free throw accuracy in Big 12 games, including 85.9 from Carter and Dunn, who will have the ball in their hands at crunch time.Missouri has only gone out as road underdogs twice this season, taking an 0-2 collar, and in the only Big 12 step-up the Tigers were beaten much worse than the 84-65 final score at Kansas, getting crushed 53-28 on the boards. Now they are the ones with the physical issues, with Zaire Taylor trying to fight off a stomach virus; J. T. Tiller playing with a broken nose; and Keith Ramsay not 100 percent because of a sprained ankle. This time they are the ones running out of gas.
5* #549 ARKANSAS over ALABAMA
Here is a line range that you do not see often – a team with a 6-3 record leading the S.E.C. West vs. one that is 3-7 and only one ladder rung out of last place taking far more than the value of the court, and the team with the far better conference record also winning the first meeting b y a dozen. So how does this happen? Largely because the markets still refuse to deal with Arkansas properly. It was so bad back in November that John Pelphrey played several games with only six scholarship players available, and there were hideous home losses to Morgan State, East Tennessee State and South Alabama, as well as drubbings at Louisville by 30 and Oklahoma by 20. But those games simply do not carry any real meaning going forward. Once Courtney Fortson became eligible on January 1st it marked the start of a new season, and those results are the only ones that really count at this juncture.While Fortney’s 20.0 ppg in S.E.C. play obviously stands out, he should be considered more of the final piece to the puzzle than necessarily the dominant piece – Marshawn Powell (14.8), Mike Washington (12.1) and Rotnei Clarke (11.9) are also averaging double figures in conference action, and there are five players averaging at least 9.0 minutes per league game off the bench. It means confidence, talent and depth are on hand, and having won outright at Georgia and Mississippi as part of a current 5-0 run, they certainly do not take the court as though they are the underdogs in this matchup.While Arkansas continues to surge, not much is going to come easily for Alabama. The Crimson Tide have been fortunate to draw L.S.U. twice already, but outside of handling the out-manned Tigers they are 1-7 in all other conference games, with that win coming by just five points. In losing four straight the offensive issues have come front and center, with few reliable scoring options and precious little ability to drive the ball to the basket – through those first 10 S.E.C. games their opponents have made more free throws (148 of 226) than the Tide have attempted (94-140). Anthony Grant does not have the pieces yet to press the length of the floor the way he would like to, forcing only 12.2 TO’s per game in league play, and his team has yet to score more than 66 points vs. an S.E.C. opponent. They are seriously challenged to merely win here, much less get the kind of major margin that is being called for.
4* #565 IOWA over PURDUE
To get the kind of margin being called for here, especially at the anticipated tempo, it is going to require a huge degree of dominance by Purdue. The Boilermakers have not won a Big 10 game by more than 20 points, and the Hawkeyes have not lost a conference affair by that plateau. And under today’s circumstances that degree of dominance would take a huge roll of the dice.For Purdue the eyes have been on March since the start of the season, and as such Matt Painter knows that he can not get the full effort from his team every time they take the court – that would have them far short of energy when it is going to be needed most. It means picking some spots to pull back the reins a little, and this is a classic setting for that. Two games back there was that draining 78-75 win at Indiana that was not determined until the final possession, and following that was the showdown win at Michigan State earlier this week. Immediately on deck are games against Ohio State and Illinois, both currently a half game ahead of them for first place in the Big 10 standings. So this is the prime spot for Painter to be content with merely grinding out a win and moving forward, not looking to extend the energy more than is necessary.Not that this margin would have been available anyway. Iowa may lack big-time talent but the Hawkeyes are playing with a lot of chemistry right now, with three outright underdog wins in their current 6-2 ATS run, and note that one of those spread failures came by a half point. No team has scored more than 70 points against them in that run, and they also won the battle of the boards by a +3. Considering that they played Ohio State twice, Illinois and Michigan State in that span, it speaks volumes. In whipping Northwestern in double figures in their last outing we saw excellent team basketball, with four players scoring at least 13 points in an offense than had more than twice as many assists (18) as turnovers (8), and they will also approach this one with some confidence, having led in the second half of that earlier 67-56 home loss to the Boilermakers. Look for a similar tempo here, and a similar result.
4* #520 OKLAHOMA STATE/OKLAHOMA Over ( W )
Both of these teams love to push the tempo, with athletes that can run the open floor to convert, and plenty of shooters that can take advantage of scramble situations to hit open-court triples. Neither has much of a defensive presence at all around the basket. So how do we explain only 119 points being scored between these two despite playing 45 minutes in the first “Bedlam” go-round in Norman? It was a spin of the roulette wheel. The two teams combined to shoot an abysmal 41-127 from the field, including 11-46 from beyond the arc, and even at the free throw line it was a ridiculous 26-46. The energy was frenetic that night, but the shooting was disastrous. Of the 15 players that took shots that night, only Cade Davis (4-8) managed to reach 50 percent.Fast forward to the rematch and it is an entirely different setting. The first time around both were playing for the second time in three days, and perhaps that took a toll on the legs of the shooters. But now each is only playing for the third time in the month of February, and the host Cowboys have had a full week to prepare, off of their 19-69 in the first go-round. It means not only the usual high level of energy between these two, but also much better execution in all offensive areas, particularly the free throw shooting for teams that are hitting 73.7 (Oklahoma) and 71.7 (State) for the full season.
4* #611 WASHINGTON over STANFORD
Washington is bigger, more athletic, more talented and deeper than
Stanford, and it showed in that earlier 94-61 home domination. The
Huskies won the battle of the boards by 10, and had 18 more bench
points, and note that that included Andrew Zimmerman and Gabriel
Harris still in uniform for the Cardinal (36 floor minutes). They are
now gone, joining Andrew Owens and Andy Brown and leaving Johnny
Dawkins with a paper-thin rotation. So now that we are deeper into
the season, and this is a second game in three days in which depth
and energy become bigger factors, why are the markets saying that
Stanford can shave 30 points off of that earlier defeat? It is
simple, actually, but also wrong.
Washington is 0-5 on the Pac 10 road this season. You get downgraded
when that is on your resume. But there are a lot of holdovers from a
team that won six games as a conference traveler LY, and in truth the
biggest reason for the 0-5 is that they have opened at the five
toughest venues in the league. Now they step down in class, and it
would not be a surprise to us if Lorenzo Romar?s team won each of
their last four trips. This is a team that has not played their best
basketball yet, and with the Husky starters only logging 126 minutes
on Thursday, they bring a high level of energy here.
It is a much different story for Stanford. The Cardinal starters
played 28 more floor minutes than their Washington counterparts on
Thursday, and they were hard minutes, rallying from 18 down in the
second half to stun Washington State in the late stages. Games like
that are not easy to recover from, and the fact that a team as
mediocre as the Cougars could lead here in Maples by 18 in the second
half speaks volumes. Stanford is far too reliant on Landry Fields and
Jeremy Green, who are scoring 41.1 ppg in Pac 10 play while all
others are contributing just 25.5, and each runs head-to-head into
outstanding defenders at their position tonight, part of why they
could only score a combined 24 points on 8-22 shooting in the first
go-round.
Romar has gone 3-0 SU and ATS against Dawkins, beating the
pointspread by 39 points in the process, and he is going to get more
experience on the court to start the game with JR Matthew
Bryan-Amaning starting up front instead of FR Tyreese Brashers. That
helps to sooth the nerves of playing on the road, and his Huskies
finally get that breakthrough win, in style.
4* #625 VIRGINIA over VIRGINIA TECH
It seems like Tony Bennett has been around for far longer than his
short years as a college basketball head coach, but because he
learned from such a master (his father), we were able to see the
?Tough Out? tools right from the start, and through the years we may
not have had a better Play On coach in the role of a road underdog.
Now we add the element of extreme motivation and focus for tonight,
and we get to take a favorable number in a game that can go to the
final possession.
How do Bennett?s teams hang around so well? By executing the basic
fundamentals of the game at a high level, and his own take this week
exemplifies the concept - <i>?In order to win, you have to eliminate
losing. And what will get you beaten? Second-chance points, silly
turnovers and giving up transition baskets.?</i> That was in
reference to the earlier 76-71 O.T. home loss to these Hokies, when
Bennett felt that the Cavaliers flat-out gave it away after leading
62-52 with 3:44 remaining in regulation. His words - <i>?I thought we
played so hard, and we always talk about hard and smart together. We
were pretty solid with our decision making up until that point and
then there were some breakdowns. We could have run some clock. Jeff
(Jones) got a wide open look. He had hit one and it would have been
a time to run some clock. We left a guy unguarded in transition, two
turnovers and the out of bounds plays, fouling Delaney - there were
just some things where I thought our execution and just making some
sound decisions hurt us.?</i>
Now Bennett and his team come in as fresh as can be this late in the
season for the rematch, with Wednesday?s postponement vs. Maryland
bringing some key time off, and also an ability to begin putting this
game plan together earlier than usual. With only two O.T. losses
preventing the Cavaliers from being 8-1 in the A.C.C., and with easy
road wins at North Carolina and N. C. State helping to build
confidence, we can put them right in this one to the final buzzer to
win outright, with the spread offered a solid cushion. With only
seven players in the rotation, and with Malcolm Delaney having to
carry far too much of a load, conference margins are not going to
come easily for the Hokies (half of their A.C.C. victories have come
by four points or less in regulation), and the fact that they are
shooting just 30.0 percent from 3-point range in league play makes it
hard to build a margin against a defense that will force them to take
a lot of their shots from the perimeter. Three of the last five
meetings in this bitter rivalry have gone to O.T., while another was
decided by just three points in regulation, and this is more of the
same.
4* #638 LOUISIANA TECH/HAWAII Under
The first five games between Bob Nash and Kerry Rupp in this series
have produced point counts of 125, 117, 129, 131 and 128, falling a
collective 55.5 points below the projections of the oddsmakers. But
if you think those were stodgy affairs you have not seen anything yet.
Nash has adjusted to having a depleted Hawaii roster by slowing
things down, with the result being six straight Under?s, falling 73.5
points below the projections. That became necessary with the
suspension of Dwain Williams and the loss of Bill Amis, but now they
take a hit that they could not afford to, with Jeremy Lay being lost
for the season. It forced Nash to bring three walk-ons along on this
trip to fill out the roster, and with PG Hiram Thompson, the only
ball-handling option, playing through a bad shoulder (only took one
shot in 28 minutes in that 61-51 loss to Fresno State in the last
outing), Nash knows how he must play this - <i>"Mentally, we got to
think through the game. We can't have any breakage. I mean, we're
very thin in the backcourt, so everybody's got to be alert to help
bring the ball up the floor. We can't turn the ball over and give
them run-outs and all that kind of stuff. Everybody's got to be
alert, can't sit back on our heels and we all got to get back in
transition defense."</i> And to make matters even worse they had to
take a four-hour bus ride to Ruston from Dallas instead of flying
because of those winter storms in the region. With another game on
deck at New Mexico State on Monday night they are not a candidate to
be chasing very hard from behind
Louisiana Tech can shut off the basket here with 6-11 Magnum Rolle
inside (54 blocked shots), but because the Bulldogs are not all that
deep (only six players averaging more than 10 minutes per game this
season), they are not adept at extending their defense to force pace.
That enables Hawaii to slow this down early, and it leads to a game
in which there is not much offensive efficiency or pace, and not much
fear at all of late-game ?scramble? points.
Saturday: Afternoon 6* and 5* Plays key the NCAA Ticket
It is going to be another busy Saturday as the Basketball momentum continues to build, and it will be a case of Quality and Quantity - an explosive afternoon starts with the Maryland/Duke showdown making our ticket, then a game that will carry our Top 6* Rating (369-256-12), and a 5* that goes at 4:00 Eastern. We also have one on the house, as we break down Iowa/Purdue for free below, and there are Totals and Night plays yet to come.
4* #513 MARYLAND over DUKE ( L )
We do not have to spend too much time going into why a Gary Williams team will almost always fit under our “Tough Out” umbrella – he brings in players that compete in a manner that fits his own persona, and it has led us to cash a lot of road underdog tickets through the years. And with Greivis Vasquez on the court the Terrapins have been simply sparkling in this role, on a 14-5-1 ATS run as A.C.C. road dogs since the middle of his FR season, a season that culminated with the outright upset of Duke on this court in the final road game (Vasquez had 13 points and 12 assists). But it is not that game that creates the spark here, it is instead the dismal 85-44 loss suffered on this court LY, one of the worst losses every for a Williams team, and as poorly of a game as Vasquez has played (four points on 2-10 shooting, four turnovers, one assist). Now with that major winter storm enabling Maryland to put the full focus on this game, a high energy level is brought to a setting that makes it awfully difficult for Duke to build any kind of margin.While Maryland was getting Wednesday off, Duke was getting a tough 64-54 grinder of a win at North Carolina in a game that was much closer than the final score shows. Jon Scheyer and Kyle Singler had to go the full 40 minutes that night, while Nolan Smith played 39, and the potential loss of Lance Thomas for today makes it an even more fragile rotation (Thomas has not practiced since that game, and even if he does go here will not be 100 percent). This is not a typical Duke team that wears you down with that deep stock of talent - Mike Krzyzewski has only had seven players going more than 10 minutes per game in A.C.C. action, with only Mason Plumlee and Brian Zoubek seeing steady time off of the bench, and neither of those two are the ideal players to replace Smith against the quickness and athleticism that Maryland brings to the table.The minutes are already taking a toll on Scheyer and Singler, who are averaging exhausting counts of 38.5 and 38.0 in A.C.C. action. Scheyer is shooting just 40.9 percent, with the burden of having to play the point catching up to him, while Singler is only at 40.0. You do not get fresher at this time of the season, especially vs. this class of competition, and while they may have the basketball savvy to gut out a win this afternoon, asking for this level of margin is way too much.
6* #518 BAYLOR over MISSOURI ( L )
The last time these two met there was a lot at stake – the Big 12 tourney championship, and a 6* for us. And it was never in doubt, with the Missouri presses able to wear out a Baylor team that simply had nothing left in the tank after beating Nebraska, Kansas and Texas the previous three days. But oh how the setting changes for this one. Now the Bears are the better team, playing with a special chip on their shoulder to avenge that title tilt defeat, and the matchups are in place for something special.Missouri has been a meal ticket for us the past two seasons, as we continue to see that it is more than just those frenetic presses from Mike Anderson’s team, but also some savvy basketball at the offensive end. But there is a major difference this time – having lost NBA draft choices DeMarre Carroll and Leo Lyons up front, and sharp-shooter Matt Lawrence, there is a real problem in converting those turnovers into points. A team that led the nation in assists per game LY, and was second in assist to TO ratio, is finding points hard to come by no matter how many passes they throw because the shooters and finishers are not there. The Tigers are shooting just 40.0 percent in Big 12 play, and of the eight players going at least 15 minutes per game in conference action, four are shooting 35.6 percent or less. That is ugly, and it does not turn around against that talented and deep Baylor front-court, led by Epke Udoh and his 97 blocked shots. When Missouri is forced to run half-court sets, we expect the Baylor defense to be a dominating presence, and the battle of the boards should be no contest, with the Bears at +5.3 in league play and the Tigers -4.7.So can Baylor avoid the TO’s that create so much havoc in Missouri games? The pieces are there. While floor leader Tweety Carter was one of many exhausted Bears in LY’s championship tilt, he has been on the court for many successes against Anderson’s schemes, like a 97-83 rout in Columbia in his FR season, and he and LaceDarius Dunn saw a lot of time together in the back-court in the 100-89 win here two years ago. As a team they are playing at a high level of confidence on this court and the results have been dominating – since January 1st they have routed Oklahoma (91-60), Massachusetts (71-45), Oklahoma State (83-70) and Iowa State (84-63), while losing at the gun to Kansas State in a game in which they competed tenaciously. There is the size, depth and athleticism to not only cope with the Tiger presses but to actually attack them and go after easy baskets, with that size advantage inside leading to easy finishes, and they are also a difficult team to chase down from behind with that 77.1 percent free throw accuracy in Big 12 games, including 85.9 from Carter and Dunn, who will have the ball in their hands at crunch time.Missouri has only gone out as road underdogs twice this season, taking an 0-2 collar, and in the only Big 12 step-up the Tigers were beaten much worse than the 84-65 final score at Kansas, getting crushed 53-28 on the boards. Now they are the ones with the physical issues, with Zaire Taylor trying to fight off a stomach virus; J. T. Tiller playing with a broken nose; and Keith Ramsay not 100 percent because of a sprained ankle. This time they are the ones running out of gas.
5* #549 ARKANSAS over ALABAMA
Here is a line range that you do not see often – a team with a 6-3 record leading the S.E.C. West vs. one that is 3-7 and only one ladder rung out of last place taking far more than the value of the court, and the team with the far better conference record also winning the first meeting b y a dozen. So how does this happen? Largely because the markets still refuse to deal with Arkansas properly. It was so bad back in November that John Pelphrey played several games with only six scholarship players available, and there were hideous home losses to Morgan State, East Tennessee State and South Alabama, as well as drubbings at Louisville by 30 and Oklahoma by 20. But those games simply do not carry any real meaning going forward. Once Courtney Fortson became eligible on January 1st it marked the start of a new season, and those results are the only ones that really count at this juncture.While Fortney’s 20.0 ppg in S.E.C. play obviously stands out, he should be considered more of the final piece to the puzzle than necessarily the dominant piece – Marshawn Powell (14.8), Mike Washington (12.1) and Rotnei Clarke (11.9) are also averaging double figures in conference action, and there are five players averaging at least 9.0 minutes per league game off the bench. It means confidence, talent and depth are on hand, and having won outright at Georgia and Mississippi as part of a current 5-0 run, they certainly do not take the court as though they are the underdogs in this matchup.While Arkansas continues to surge, not much is going to come easily for Alabama. The Crimson Tide have been fortunate to draw L.S.U. twice already, but outside of handling the out-manned Tigers they are 1-7 in all other conference games, with that win coming by just five points. In losing four straight the offensive issues have come front and center, with few reliable scoring options and precious little ability to drive the ball to the basket – through those first 10 S.E.C. games their opponents have made more free throws (148 of 226) than the Tide have attempted (94-140). Anthony Grant does not have the pieces yet to press the length of the floor the way he would like to, forcing only 12.2 TO’s per game in league play, and his team has yet to score more than 66 points vs. an S.E.C. opponent. They are seriously challenged to merely win here, much less get the kind of major margin that is being called for.
4* #565 IOWA over PURDUE
To get the kind of margin being called for here, especially at the anticipated tempo, it is going to require a huge degree of dominance by Purdue. The Boilermakers have not won a Big 10 game by more than 20 points, and the Hawkeyes have not lost a conference affair by that plateau. And under today’s circumstances that degree of dominance would take a huge roll of the dice.For Purdue the eyes have been on March since the start of the season, and as such Matt Painter knows that he can not get the full effort from his team every time they take the court – that would have them far short of energy when it is going to be needed most. It means picking some spots to pull back the reins a little, and this is a classic setting for that. Two games back there was that draining 78-75 win at Indiana that was not determined until the final possession, and following that was the showdown win at Michigan State earlier this week. Immediately on deck are games against Ohio State and Illinois, both currently a half game ahead of them for first place in the Big 10 standings. So this is the prime spot for Painter to be content with merely grinding out a win and moving forward, not looking to extend the energy more than is necessary.Not that this margin would have been available anyway. Iowa may lack big-time talent but the Hawkeyes are playing with a lot of chemistry right now, with three outright underdog wins in their current 6-2 ATS run, and note that one of those spread failures came by a half point. No team has scored more than 70 points against them in that run, and they also won the battle of the boards by a +3. Considering that they played Ohio State twice, Illinois and Michigan State in that span, it speaks volumes. In whipping Northwestern in double figures in their last outing we saw excellent team basketball, with four players scoring at least 13 points in an offense than had more than twice as many assists (18) as turnovers (8), and they will also approach this one with some confidence, having led in the second half of that earlier 67-56 home loss to the Boilermakers. Look for a similar tempo here, and a similar result.
4* #520 OKLAHOMA STATE/OKLAHOMA Over ( W )
Both of these teams love to push the tempo, with athletes that can run the open floor to convert, and plenty of shooters that can take advantage of scramble situations to hit open-court triples. Neither has much of a defensive presence at all around the basket. So how do we explain only 119 points being scored between these two despite playing 45 minutes in the first “Bedlam” go-round in Norman? It was a spin of the roulette wheel. The two teams combined to shoot an abysmal 41-127 from the field, including 11-46 from beyond the arc, and even at the free throw line it was a ridiculous 26-46. The energy was frenetic that night, but the shooting was disastrous. Of the 15 players that took shots that night, only Cade Davis (4-8) managed to reach 50 percent.Fast forward to the rematch and it is an entirely different setting. The first time around both were playing for the second time in three days, and perhaps that took a toll on the legs of the shooters. But now each is only playing for the third time in the month of February, and the host Cowboys have had a full week to prepare, off of their 19-69 in the first go-round. It means not only the usual high level of energy between these two, but also much better execution in all offensive areas, particularly the free throw shooting for teams that are hitting 73.7 (Oklahoma) and 71.7 (State) for the full season.
4* #611 WASHINGTON over STANFORD
Washington is bigger, more athletic, more talented and deeper than
Stanford, and it showed in that earlier 94-61 home domination. The
Huskies won the battle of the boards by 10, and had 18 more bench
points, and note that that included Andrew Zimmerman and Gabriel
Harris still in uniform for the Cardinal (36 floor minutes). They are
now gone, joining Andrew Owens and Andy Brown and leaving Johnny
Dawkins with a paper-thin rotation. So now that we are deeper into
the season, and this is a second game in three days in which depth
and energy become bigger factors, why are the markets saying that
Stanford can shave 30 points off of that earlier defeat? It is
simple, actually, but also wrong.
Washington is 0-5 on the Pac 10 road this season. You get downgraded
when that is on your resume. But there are a lot of holdovers from a
team that won six games as a conference traveler LY, and in truth the
biggest reason for the 0-5 is that they have opened at the five
toughest venues in the league. Now they step down in class, and it
would not be a surprise to us if Lorenzo Romar?s team won each of
their last four trips. This is a team that has not played their best
basketball yet, and with the Husky starters only logging 126 minutes
on Thursday, they bring a high level of energy here.
It is a much different story for Stanford. The Cardinal starters
played 28 more floor minutes than their Washington counterparts on
Thursday, and they were hard minutes, rallying from 18 down in the
second half to stun Washington State in the late stages. Games like
that are not easy to recover from, and the fact that a team as
mediocre as the Cougars could lead here in Maples by 18 in the second
half speaks volumes. Stanford is far too reliant on Landry Fields and
Jeremy Green, who are scoring 41.1 ppg in Pac 10 play while all
others are contributing just 25.5, and each runs head-to-head into
outstanding defenders at their position tonight, part of why they
could only score a combined 24 points on 8-22 shooting in the first
go-round.
Romar has gone 3-0 SU and ATS against Dawkins, beating the
pointspread by 39 points in the process, and he is going to get more
experience on the court to start the game with JR Matthew
Bryan-Amaning starting up front instead of FR Tyreese Brashers. That
helps to sooth the nerves of playing on the road, and his Huskies
finally get that breakthrough win, in style.
4* #625 VIRGINIA over VIRGINIA TECH
It seems like Tony Bennett has been around for far longer than his
short years as a college basketball head coach, but because he
learned from such a master (his father), we were able to see the
?Tough Out? tools right from the start, and through the years we may
not have had a better Play On coach in the role of a road underdog.
Now we add the element of extreme motivation and focus for tonight,
and we get to take a favorable number in a game that can go to the
final possession.
How do Bennett?s teams hang around so well? By executing the basic
fundamentals of the game at a high level, and his own take this week
exemplifies the concept - <i>?In order to win, you have to eliminate
losing. And what will get you beaten? Second-chance points, silly
turnovers and giving up transition baskets.?</i> That was in
reference to the earlier 76-71 O.T. home loss to these Hokies, when
Bennett felt that the Cavaliers flat-out gave it away after leading
62-52 with 3:44 remaining in regulation. His words - <i>?I thought we
played so hard, and we always talk about hard and smart together. We
were pretty solid with our decision making up until that point and
then there were some breakdowns. We could have run some clock. Jeff
(Jones) got a wide open look. He had hit one and it would have been
a time to run some clock. We left a guy unguarded in transition, two
turnovers and the out of bounds plays, fouling Delaney - there were
just some things where I thought our execution and just making some
sound decisions hurt us.?</i>
Now Bennett and his team come in as fresh as can be this late in the
season for the rematch, with Wednesday?s postponement vs. Maryland
bringing some key time off, and also an ability to begin putting this
game plan together earlier than usual. With only two O.T. losses
preventing the Cavaliers from being 8-1 in the A.C.C., and with easy
road wins at North Carolina and N. C. State helping to build
confidence, we can put them right in this one to the final buzzer to
win outright, with the spread offered a solid cushion. With only
seven players in the rotation, and with Malcolm Delaney having to
carry far too much of a load, conference margins are not going to
come easily for the Hokies (half of their A.C.C. victories have come
by four points or less in regulation), and the fact that they are
shooting just 30.0 percent from 3-point range in league play makes it
hard to build a margin against a defense that will force them to take
a lot of their shots from the perimeter. Three of the last five
meetings in this bitter rivalry have gone to O.T., while another was
decided by just three points in regulation, and this is more of the
same.
4* #638 LOUISIANA TECH/HAWAII Under
The first five games between Bob Nash and Kerry Rupp in this series
have produced point counts of 125, 117, 129, 131 and 128, falling a
collective 55.5 points below the projections of the oddsmakers. But
if you think those were stodgy affairs you have not seen anything yet.
Nash has adjusted to having a depleted Hawaii roster by slowing
things down, with the result being six straight Under?s, falling 73.5
points below the projections. That became necessary with the
suspension of Dwain Williams and the loss of Bill Amis, but now they
take a hit that they could not afford to, with Jeremy Lay being lost
for the season. It forced Nash to bring three walk-ons along on this
trip to fill out the roster, and with PG Hiram Thompson, the only
ball-handling option, playing through a bad shoulder (only took one
shot in 28 minutes in that 61-51 loss to Fresno State in the last
outing), Nash knows how he must play this - <i>"Mentally, we got to
think through the game. We can't have any breakage. I mean, we're
very thin in the backcourt, so everybody's got to be alert to help
bring the ball up the floor. We can't turn the ball over and give
them run-outs and all that kind of stuff. Everybody's got to be
alert, can't sit back on our heels and we all got to get back in
transition defense."</i> And to make matters even worse they had to
take a four-hour bus ride to Ruston from Dallas instead of flying
because of those winter storms in the region. With another game on
deck at New Mexico State on Monday night they are not a candidate to
be chasing very hard from behind
Louisiana Tech can shut off the basket here with 6-11 Magnum Rolle
inside (54 blocked shots), but because the Bulldogs are not all that
deep (only six players averaging more than 10 minutes per game this
season), they are not adept at extending their defense to force pace.
That enables Hawaii to slow this down early, and it leads to a game
in which there is not much offensive efficiency or pace, and not much
fear at all of late-game ?scramble? points.
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
Oregon St/Arizona Under 123.5
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this game is on the "under":
Derek Glasser scored 16 points and Jerren Shipp had 11 as Arizona State defeated Oregon State 56-46 on Thursday night to keep pace in the tightly contested Pac-10 race.
Calvin Haynes scored 15 points on 5-of-22 shooting for Oregon State (10-13, 4-7), which has dropped eight of 10 road games; and I expect another letdown this evening.
Keep in mind as well that Oregon State has seen the total go "under" the posted number in seven of nine games this year as an underdog and in six of eight of its road games.
On the other side of the court: Derrick Williams scored 11 of his 20 points in the first 3 1/2 minutes of the second half and the Arizona Wildcats went on to beat Oregon 70-57 on Thursday night.
The 6-foot-8, 225-pound freshman made eight of his 10 shots, including an array of wide-open dunks as the Wildcats (13-11, 7-5) moved into a tie with Arizona State for second in the scrambled Pac-10, a game behind first-place California.
Bottom line: I expect a tightly contested affair; when taking all of the above into account, the sharp money in this one is indeed on the UNDER!
8* UNDER
Oregon St/Arizona Under 123.5
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this game is on the "under":
Derek Glasser scored 16 points and Jerren Shipp had 11 as Arizona State defeated Oregon State 56-46 on Thursday night to keep pace in the tightly contested Pac-10 race.
Calvin Haynes scored 15 points on 5-of-22 shooting for Oregon State (10-13, 4-7), which has dropped eight of 10 road games; and I expect another letdown this evening.
Keep in mind as well that Oregon State has seen the total go "under" the posted number in seven of nine games this year as an underdog and in six of eight of its road games.
On the other side of the court: Derrick Williams scored 11 of his 20 points in the first 3 1/2 minutes of the second half and the Arizona Wildcats went on to beat Oregon 70-57 on Thursday night.
The 6-foot-8, 225-pound freshman made eight of his 10 shots, including an array of wide-open dunks as the Wildcats (13-11, 7-5) moved into a tie with Arizona State for second in the scrambled Pac-10, a game behind first-place California.
Bottom line: I expect a tightly contested affair; when taking all of the above into account, the sharp money in this one is indeed on the UNDER!
8* UNDER
Rocketman
Pepperdine +6.5
Santa Clara is 5-11 SU at home, 1-4 last 5 overall and 2-8 in the conference this year. Waves are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a SU loss of more than 20 points. Broncos are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing SU record. Broncos are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite. Broncos are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games. Broncos are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5. Broncos are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite. Broncos are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Broncos are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5. Waves are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. We'll play Pepperdine for 3 units tonight!
Pepperdine +6.5
Santa Clara is 5-11 SU at home, 1-4 last 5 overall and 2-8 in the conference this year. Waves are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a SU loss of more than 20 points. Broncos are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing SU record. Broncos are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite. Broncos are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games. Broncos are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5. Broncos are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite. Broncos are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Broncos are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5. Waves are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. We'll play Pepperdine for 3 units tonight!
teddy covers got 2 more games tonight the picks on page 3 are over anyone got it ?
he was 0-2 before lunch time!hno:
tough times for the memo boys. Trushel hit or missss
ER NBA very disappointing first half.
Peaks & Valleys folks.
Teddy Covers is hitting 58% in CBB documented
http://www.thesportsmonitor.com/09'10cb.html
a
AWSOME!! I DOUBLED UP ON THIS GAME...
Another play you guys should look at is Jim Fiest's O/U plays. I followed the last 6 and it's 1-5. His game plays are hot, but his totals are not doing too good. His one O/U win was by a very lucky OT over that hit. So i'm gonna fade his total play today. I don't really feel comfortable fading any of Jim Fiest's plays, but i've been taking a beating and gonna try something different today. I hope the one time i fade him i don't lose LOL... GL guys...
Jim Feist <table border="0" cellpadding="5" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr class="data"> <td class="event" width="55%" nowrap="nowrap">NCAA-B | Feb 13
CS Fullerton vs. CS Northridge</td> <td class="choice" width="30%" nowrap="nowrap">Total
147½ un-110 at BOOKM</td> <td class="starts" width="15%" nowrap="nowrap">> 3h.</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="3" class="comment">Cal State Fullerton loves the uptempo game, with four players in double figures, led by the frontcourt of Aaron Thompson (12 ppg, 5.4 rpg) and Jer'Vaughn Johnson (10.7 ppg, 6.0 rpg). They lead the Big West in shooting percentage (49.5%). However, their defense is very underrated, tops in the Big West allowing 34.7% shooting by opponents and tops at defending the three-pointer. They face a Northridge team that has been slowing the pace down of late, on a 9-3 run under the total. The Northridge defense is decent, allowing 42% shooting in the conference -- third best. Oddsmakers are anticipating an offensive show, but the defenses will surprise in this one. Play Fullerton/Northridge Under the total.</td></tr></tbody></table>
AWSOME!! I DOUBLED UP ON THIS GAME...
Another play you guys should look at is Jim Fiest's O/U plays. I followed the last 6 and it's 1-5. His game plays are hot, but his totals are not doing too good. His one O/U win was by a very lucky OT over that hit. So i'm gonna fade his total play today. I don't really feel comfortable fading any of Jim Fiest's plays, but i've been taking a beating and gonna try something different today. I hope the one time i fade him i don't lose LOL... GL guys...
Jim Feist <table border="0" cellpadding="5" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr class="data"> <td class="event" width="55%" nowrap="nowrap">NCAA-B | Feb 13
CS Fullerton vs. CS Northridge</td> <td class="choice" width="30%" nowrap="nowrap">Total
147½ un-110 at BOOKM</td> <td class="starts" width="15%" nowrap="nowrap">> 3h.</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="3" class="comment">Cal State Fullerton loves the uptempo game, with four players in double figures, led by the frontcourt of Aaron Thompson (12 ppg, 5.4 rpg) and Jer'Vaughn Johnson (10.7 ppg, 6.0 rpg). They lead the Big West in shooting percentage (49.5%). However, their defense is very underrated, tops in the Big West allowing 34.7% shooting by opponents and tops at defending the three-pointer. They face a Northridge team that has been slowing the pace down of late, on a 9-3 run under the total. The Northridge defense is decent, allowing 42% shooting in the conference -- third best. Oddsmakers are anticipating an offensive show, but the defenses will surprise in this one. Play Fullerton/Northridge Under the total.</td></tr></tbody></table>
