SPORTS WAGERS
Kansas State +7 over BAYLOR
This is a key Big-12 contest that has huge College Football Playoff implications for both teams. The Wildcats will venture to McLane Stadium in Arlington, Texas to square off with an ill-defined Baylor squad that has had shades of brilliance and moments that clearly caused the college football playoff committee to undermine their efforts in the weekly rankings. The winner of this game will gain at least a piece of the Big-12 championship. If TCU were to somehow fall to Iowa State in Fort Worth, the winner of this game owns the Big-12 title outright. An event of that nature would be catastrophic, as the Horned Frogs sit at #3 and play host to a team that only won two games this season. However, Baylor averted calamity last week against an inferior opponent and almost fell victim to a similar fate. Baylor almost surrendered a 25-point lead to a Texas Tech team that is outright terrible. In fact, the only reason why Texas Tech did not tie the game in the final stages of the fourth quarter, despite trailing 45-20, was due to a miserable failure on a two-point conversion. The Baylor defense had little to say in the outcome. Baylor had a limited role in retaining their lead, their offense was stymied in the second half and their defense was outright exposed. Usually, this is not the benchmark of a top-10 team vying for a potential national championship. For Baylor the stakes are huge, if they win, they are the outright Big-12 champion by virtue of their defeat of TCU in October. In addition, a big win over a ranked opponent like Kansas State will certainly help their cause and remedy their poor performance against the Red Raiders of Texas Tech. Nevertheless, Baylor will have to play a complete game and their antics last week will certainly not fly against a poised and talented team like K-State.
Since their loss to TCU, Kansas State has responded remarkably. The Wildcats defense has been fantastic, earning top-25 distinction in three major defensive categories. Furthermore, K-State has emerged as a legitimate passing threat, averaging 281.6 yards for game. This team can certainly go tit-for-tat with Baylor and they may have more weapons on both sides of the ball at this point in the season. Sure, the Bears have Antwan Goodley and Bryce Petty and both of them were Heisman candidates entering the 2014-15 season. But the Cannonballs (K-State) have far more tricks up their sleeve with the biggest magician of them all being Tyler Lockett, who has been brilliant all year as both a receiver and return man. Lockett has accumulated over 1,500 all-purpose yards and 10 total touchdowns. He has been a nightmare to defend for opposing teams tasked with this daunting assignment. If Lockett isn’t enough, the Wildcats also have a wide receiver by the name of Curry Sexton and he is 60 yards shy of a 1,000 receiving campaign himself. The effects of Baylor’s near-disaster against Texas Tech are yet to be seen. Regardless, the Wildcats are certainly ready and eager to face the Bears. The points here are significant in what shapes up as a competitive game where neither side is going to run over the other but we like the ‘Cats to protect the football and make enough plays in the passing game to take this one outright. That said, the points are still too juicy to pass up on.
Missouri +14½ over Alabama
Somehow, someway the #13 Missouri Tigers have made it in to the SEC Championship to square off with the top team in the country at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta. The Tigers responded from their last loss back in Week 6, a 34-0 pounding received at the hands of the ailing Georgia Bulldogs, by defeating Florida 42-13. Many analysts and spectators adamantly believed the Bulldog Nation would be the team to represent the East in Atlanta, yet Missouri was able to endure and overcome a series of difficult road tests against Texas A&M and Tennessee. Mizzou also managed to orchestrate a come from behind victory to defeat Arkansas in their regular season finale. Alabama enters the game on an entirely different note. The Crimson Tide have dismantled most of the opponents they faced in the final stages of the regular season. The Tide are on a mission and have quickly shed the shell of uncertainty many fans placed upon them at the beginning of the year. This is not the same team that struggled against West Virginia, Mississippi and Arkansas. However, this is not the same Missouri Tigers team that was thumped by the Bulldogs and Indiana either.
The Tigers possess the capability to make this a ball game. Alabama’s defense was exposed when they surrendered 44 points to Auburn in Tuscaloosa. Plus, the play of senior quarterback Blake Sims was rather mediocre in the first half of the Iron Bowl and only when there was a possibility of him being removed did his game improve. Yes, the Tide have T.J Yeldon and Amare Cooper but the Tigers have Shane Ray and Marcus Golden. Many analysts have proclaimed that Missouri’s defensive line might just be the best in the country. A defensive line that plays with reckless abandon like Missouri can create mischief and trouble for an Alabama team that may get caught a little off guard here. Missouri has nothing to lose and the Tigers have fought valiantly to earn the opportunity. Missouri will certainly try to make the most of their SEC Championship bid and complete what could not be finished against Auburn in 2013. Look for a spirited performance from Missouri but more importantly are the added points we get when fading the #1 ranked team in the land.
Fresno State +23 over BOISE STATE
Fresno State will once again travel to Boise State to renew their conference rivalry in the Mountain West Conference Championship. Earlier this year, the Bulldogs traveled to the affectionately known “Smurf Turf” to battle the Broncos and they lost by a score of 37-27. It is most noteworthy to mention that the Bulldogs entered as a +17-point underdog and managed to cover that spread effectively. Entering this one, the take-back has increased compared to the previous collision and thus presents a qualitative opportunity to take back even more points. In other words, if you are wagering on BSU here, you will be paying a serious premium to do so and here’s why: When these two met back in mid-October, the Broncos were not ranked. They are now ranked #22 and you always pay extra when betting ranked v unranked. Furthermore, Boise State has scored 55, 60, 63 and 50 points in four of its last five games and crooked totals like that also increases the price.
Boise State is without question the better team and if they win they will likely attend a New Year’s Six Bowl Game as this year’s Group of Five Champion seed. Furthermore, the Broncos have an overlooked and extraordinarily talented running back in Jay Ajayi, who has been virtually unstoppable all year. We’re not going to sugar coat this and suggest that the ‘Dogs from the Valley are in the same class as Boise State because they are not. What we are suggesting is that Fresno State will in no way be intimidated in this setting. They have a great running game of their own that ranked 41st in the country and they’ll try to utilize that to sustain long drives and limit the Broncos possessions. We also like that the Bulldogs have found their way again after reeling off three in a row to close out the regular season. Fresno State is not a great team by any stretch of the imagination but this isn’t about them. This one is all about taking back some inflated points against a Boise State team that just made its way into the polls after they defeated Wyoming two weeks ago. So even if you find backing Fresno State unpalatable, the correct move is still to take the weight and not make the mistake of laying inflated points.