Dr. Bob
*UNDER (60) - Oklahoma State (+21) 17 OKLAHOMA 33
Sat Dec-06-2014 at 12:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 119 Over/Under 59.5 - Matchup Stats
Oklahoma will be without starting quarterback Trevor Knight and most likely star WR Sterling Shepard, who still has not been able to run full speed with the groin injury that kept him 3-plus games. The loss of Shepard was damaging to the Oklahoma pass attack even before Knight was injured, as Knight averaged only 6.1 yards per pass play after Knight’s injury early in the week 10 game against Iowa State. The pass attack has been non-existent with freshman Cody Thomas as the trigger man, as Thomas has completed just 13 of 33 passes for 172 yards with 3 interceptions in his two starts. Thomas’ horrible play has gone has not hindered Oklahoma’s attack the last two games because the Sooners were able to dominate with their rushing attack against two teams that are horrible defending the run (Texas Tech and Kansas combine to rate at 0.7 yards per rushing play worse than average defensively). Oklahoma has run over bad defensive fronts all season, as they’ve averaged 417 rushing yards at 8.6 yards per rushing play against the 4 bad run defenses that they’ve faced (Tulsa, Iowa State, Texas Tech and Kansas). However, the other 7 teams that Oklahoma has faced all are better than average defending the run and the Sooners have averaged just 185 yards at 5.0 yards per play in those games. Oklahoma rates at 1.5 yprp better than average for the season but those numbers are skewed by running up big numbers against bad defensive team. In their 7 games against better than average run defenses the Sooners were just 0.7 yprp better than average, as their 5.0 yprp was against teams that would allow 4.3 yprp to an average team. Oklahoma State’s defensive issues lately have been due to an inability to defend quality aerial attacks, but the Cowboys are solid against the run – allowing 4.7 yprp this season to teams that would combine to average 5.1 yprp against an average defensive team. Oklahoma should still have good success running the ball but they’re also going to have to throw it with some success to score consistently against the Cowboys and Thomas has not shown that he can throw the ball when he needs to. The math projects 433 yards at 6.1 yards per play for Oklahoma in this game with Thomas at quarterback and it could be lower than that given that the Cowboys have had an extra week to prepare and the Sooners have been relatively worse running the ball against better than average run defenses.
Oklahoma State also has a fresh face at quarterback, as freshman Mason Rudolph will get his second consecutive start after not playing at all in the Cowboys’ first 10 games. Rudolph was pretty effective in the 28-49 loss at Baylor, as he averaged 9.4 yards per pass play but also threw 2 interceptions. However, I’m not going to assume that Rudolph will have such a high yards per pass play average since he’s very unlikely to average 21.6 yards per completion as he did in that game. I’ll just assume that he plays at the same level as the team has played this season, although it’s certainly possible he could actually be better. Oklahoma State’s offense has been 0.1 yards per play worse than average for the season and Oklahoma is 0.7 yppl better than average defensively, so the Sooners have a solid advantage if Rudolph plays at the same level as the other Oklahoma State quarterbacks have this season. With that assumption the math projects 297 yards at 4.5 yppl for the Cowboys in this game, although it would be better than that if Rudolph’s higher than normal yards per completion is more than just variance as I’ve chalked it up to be.
Using full season stats for Oklahoma would favor the Sooners by 21 ½ points with a total of 61 points but the Sooners have a significant downgrade in the pass attack, which hasn’t been adjusted for. Perhaps that’s the case because Oklahoma averaged 535 yards and 7.8 yards per play the last two weeks with Thomas at quarterback. The fact that Oklahoma’s offense has not been any worse with Thomas at quarterback, however, is due to randomly good rushing efforts (449 yards per game at 8.6 yprp) against bad run defenses and that type of output on the ground cannot be expected to repeat itself against an Oklahoma State team with a solid run defense. There is clearly line value on the side of the Cowboys, who will be motivated to end their 5 game losing streak against their biggest rival in order to become bowl eligible. I’ll consider Oklahoma State a Strong Opinion at +21 or more.
The Sooners are not only much worse in the passing game with Thomas at quarterback but they’ve slowed their offensive tempo by running less no huddle and by keeping the clock moving with a lot more runs than passes. After making that adjustment the predicted number of plays in this game is 8 plays lower than using season plays per minute averages for each team. Oklahoma State also ran the ball much more than they usually do in Rudolph’s first start against Baylor, running 59% of the time compared to their average of 51% running plays. If they use that run-pass ratio then there would be even fewer plays run in this game, although I’m not going to make an adjustment based on just one game. The likelihood of fewer plays based on the plays per minute for Oklahoma in Thomas’ first two starts, has not been factored into the total on this game, and it certainly doesn’t appear that the Sooners’ far less effective pass attack with Thomas at quarterback has been factored in either given that my model would project 61 points using full season stats for both teams. I’ll go UNDER in a 1-Star Best Bet at 58 points or higher.
Strong Opinion – UNDER (68 ½) - MARSHALL (-9 ½) 36 Louisiana Tech 24
Sat Dec-06-2014 at 09:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 122 Over/Under 68.5 - Matchup Stats
I agreed that he opening line on this game (14 points) was too big but the line move down has been a bit overdone in my opinion. My math model favors Marshall by 11 ½ points on their home floor and I expect the Thundering Herd defense to bounce back after their only bad game of the season in last week’s 66-67 overtime loss to Western Kentucky. This will also be the first time all season that Marshall will face a better than average defensive team, as Louisiana Tech (0.5 yards per play better than average defensively), is 1.1 yppl better than the average defensive rating of the teams the Thundering Herd have faced this season. Marshall’s defense, meanwhile, is still 0.3 yppl better than average for the season (4.8 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl against an average defense) despite giving up 738 yard at 8.6 yppl last week to a good Western Kentucky attack. Louisiana Tech has good raw offensive numbers (6.1 yppl and 38.8 points per game) but the Bulldogs have faced teams that would allow 6.1 yppl to an average offensive team, so they’re just average offensively for the season even after last week’s positive outlier (9.7 yppl against Rice). Marshall had allowed an average of just 17.4 points per game prior to last week and the Herd should contain an average offensive team. I’ll consider the Under a Strong Opinion at 67 points or more.