SAFESTWAGERING
Today:
Rutgers Scarlet Knights (4-7)
@ West Va. Mountaineers (8-3) 12:00 ET
Rutgers defense has not played well since Eric LeGrand
was severely injured against army. They are a young team
that seemed to be improving, but now lacks any intensity.
In the last 3 weeks The Mountaineers outscored Pitt and
Cincy by 27 and 25 points respectively. In between these
two games they beat Louisville by 7, who has the 11th ranked
defense in the country. West Va. is in front of a home town
crowd after 2 away games, and are looking to impress
for their bowl bid. QB, Geno Smith, leads the conference
with a 145.1 rating, and should get an opportunity to play
on Sundays.
Take The West Virginia Mountaineers.
I would suggest buying a point to be safe and try to get -19.5
Nevada Wolfpack (11-1)
@ Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (5-6) 3:00 ET
This is one of those rare games where you need to ignore
many of the stats. On paper, Nevada looks like a 21 point favorite. Sportsbooks wanted the public to take Nevada and opened
the line at around -13. Here's where is gets really interesting.
Almost 90% of the public likes Nevada, but the line is dropping.
You don't need to have just retired from NASA to understand
that very big dollars are going towards Louisiana Tech.
The infinitesimal few who actually show positive ROI are
going against The Wolfpack.
Nevada rose 5 notches in the BCS rankings after beating
Boise State last Friday. The Wolf Pack may end up as
the WAC's representative in the New Mexico Bowl
on Dec. 18.... whoopie. Before last week, Nevada's
BCS opponents had a combined record of 41 wins and
77 losses. Last week they were getting pushed around
by Boise State until the 4th quarter, but their game plan
at the end worked perfectly by tiring and then exploiting
The Bronco's corners. A great win !
Last week may have been their game of the year.
Nebraska Cornhuskers (10-2)
@ Oklahoma Sooners (10-2) 8:00 ET
The Cornhusters held the opposition to less than 21 points
for 14 straight games until they played Ok St. That was
the longest streak in the country. Justin Blackmon had an
80-yard flea flicker TD catch early, but Nebraska adjusted
and made him a non-factor in the 2nd half, until a late
score when the game had already been decided.
Oklahoma can score in bunches, but not when playing
top ranked defenses.
Take The Under
Today:
Rutgers Scarlet Knights (4-7)
@ West Va. Mountaineers (8-3) 12:00 ET
Rutgers defense has not played well since Eric LeGrand
was severely injured against army. They are a young team
that seemed to be improving, but now lacks any intensity.
In the last 3 weeks The Mountaineers outscored Pitt and
Cincy by 27 and 25 points respectively. In between these
two games they beat Louisville by 7, who has the 11th ranked
defense in the country. West Va. is in front of a home town
crowd after 2 away games, and are looking to impress
for their bowl bid. QB, Geno Smith, leads the conference
with a 145.1 rating, and should get an opportunity to play
on Sundays.
Take The West Virginia Mountaineers.
I would suggest buying a point to be safe and try to get -19.5
Nevada Wolfpack (11-1)
@ Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (5-6) 3:00 ET
This is one of those rare games where you need to ignore
many of the stats. On paper, Nevada looks like a 21 point favorite. Sportsbooks wanted the public to take Nevada and opened
the line at around -13. Here's where is gets really interesting.
Almost 90% of the public likes Nevada, but the line is dropping.
You don't need to have just retired from NASA to understand
that very big dollars are going towards Louisiana Tech.
The infinitesimal few who actually show positive ROI are
going against The Wolfpack.
Nevada rose 5 notches in the BCS rankings after beating
Boise State last Friday. The Wolf Pack may end up as
the WAC's representative in the New Mexico Bowl
on Dec. 18.... whoopie. Before last week, Nevada's
BCS opponents had a combined record of 41 wins and
77 losses. Last week they were getting pushed around
by Boise State until the 4th quarter, but their game plan
at the end worked perfectly by tiring and then exploiting
The Bronco's corners. A great win !
Last week may have been their game of the year.
Nebraska Cornhuskers (10-2)
@ Oklahoma Sooners (10-2) 8:00 ET
The Cornhusters held the opposition to less than 21 points
for 14 straight games until they played Ok St. That was
the longest streak in the country. Justin Blackmon had an
80-yard flea flicker TD catch early, but Nebraska adjusted
and made him a non-factor in the 2nd half, until a late
score when the game had already been decided.
Oklahoma can score in bunches, but not when playing
top ranked defenses.
Take The Under
GC Saturday System Club Play
.
On Saturday the System Club Play is on LA. Tech. Game 318 at 3:00 eastern. This would have been a unit rated play had the line not moved 5 points since opening at 13 on Monday. Nevada comes in off the big win vs undefeated Boise St last week. That win sets them up in 2 negative systems here today. First of we want to play against road favorites off a home dog win vs an opponent with at least double revenge. The Second system pertains to late season road favorites that are off an upset win vs a undefeated team. Nevada was so geared up for the Boise game it may be hard to duplicate that type of intensity for LA. Tech here tonight. LA Tech is 8-0 ats as a home dog of more than 3 and are playing this game to become bowl eligible. Look for LA Tech to give Nevada their best game here today. On Saturday I have 3 Big College Football Plays the Revenge GOY + 30-2 Five star and 90% Conf. Championship system + the 98% NCAAB Power System Game of the week. College hoops hot right now cashing every game this week. NCAAF Hitting 65% on the season and NBA Is 25-10. For the system Club Play take LA. Tech. GC
.
On Saturday the System Club Play is on LA. Tech. Game 318 at 3:00 eastern. This would have been a unit rated play had the line not moved 5 points since opening at 13 on Monday. Nevada comes in off the big win vs undefeated Boise St last week. That win sets them up in 2 negative systems here today. First of we want to play against road favorites off a home dog win vs an opponent with at least double revenge. The Second system pertains to late season road favorites that are off an upset win vs a undefeated team. Nevada was so geared up for the Boise game it may be hard to duplicate that type of intensity for LA. Tech here tonight. LA Tech is 8-0 ats as a home dog of more than 3 and are playing this game to become bowl eligible. Look for LA Tech to give Nevada their best game here today. On Saturday I have 3 Big College Football Plays the Revenge GOY + 30-2 Five star and 90% Conf. Championship system + the 98% NCAAB Power System Game of the week. College hoops hot right now cashing every game this week. NCAAF Hitting 65% on the season and NBA Is 25-10. For the system Club Play take LA. Tech. GC
jeff benton saturday
SATURDAY'S ACTION
40 Dime college football release on WEST VIRGINIA minus the points against Rutgers in the Big East finale for both teams. The Mouataineers are a consensus 21-point favorite both here in Vegas and offshore. Monitor line moves in this contest, seeing that 21 can be a key number in college football. If you start to see it jump to 21½ in some spots, act quickly so you don’t get stouck with that hook; at the same time, if you see it start to drop to 20½, grab it.
15 Dime college football release on VIRGINIA TECH minus the points against Florida State in the ACC championship game from Charlotte. The Hokies are a consensus four-point favorite both here in Vegas and offshore, though I do so see one 3½ out here in Vegas. Monitor line meves in this game and if you see more 3½’s popping up, do your best to jump on it.
WEST VIRGINIA
Perfect situational play on the Mountaineers.
They come into this game against Rutgers off last Saturday’s 35-10 beatdown of archrival Pitt as a three-point road underdog, a victory that kept alive their Big East title (and BCS Bowl hopes). Meanwhile, Rutgers saw its bowl hopes go up in smoke with last week’s 40-13 home loss to Louisville as a 3½-point point underdog, the Scarlet Knights’ fifth straight loss (1-4 ATS), all in conference play.
West Virginia has won three in a row since back-to-back losses to Syracuse and UConn (in overtime) by a combined eight points, and those are the Mountaineers’ only two non-covers in their last nine games (7-2 ATS run). And even though WVA needs a win today and a UConn loss at South Florida to grab the league title, the good news is the UConn-South Florida game doesn’t kickoff till tonight, so it’s not like the Mountaineers will be scoreboard-watching and get depressed if they saw the Huskies up big.
West Virginia continues to field one of the nation’s top defenses, ranking second to TCU in points allowed (12.6 per game) and third behind TCU and Ohio State in yards allowed (255.7 per game). The Mountaineers have yielded exactly 10 points in each of the last three games; they’ve held seven straight opponents under 20 points (average of 11.6 ppg); and they haven’t given up more than 21 points all season.
Conversely, Rutgers has been held under 20 points five times in its last 10 games and has tallied more than 23 points just three times all season against Division I-A competition. And the Scarlet Knights’ defense has been atrocious down the stretch, giving up 109 points the last two weeks to Louisville and Cincinnati and surrendering an average of 38.2 ppg the last five weeks.
The Knights have lost 15 straight games to West Virginia and are winless in 15 all-time trips to Morgantown. Beyond that, West Virginia is 4-1 ATS in its last five at home (all as a favorite) and 5-1 ATS in its last six after either a SU or ATS win, and the winner has covered the spread in each of the Mountaineers seven games since the start of October (and the winner is 7-2 ATS in Rutgers’ last nine).
Bottom line: Motivation is huge at this juncture of the season, and this game means everything to West Virginia and absolutely nothing to freefalling Rutgers, which knows no matter what happens in this contest, its season is over today.
VIRGINIA TECH
You’re probably aware that Virginia Tech opened the season with a brutal last-minute loss to Boise State followed six days later by the ultimate hangover loss to Division I-AA James Madison (21-16 at home). You’re also probably aware that since then, the Hokies have ripped off 10 wins in row, bringing home the money in nine of those 10 games (with all nine spread-covers being double-digit routs).
Now let me clue you into a few things you might not know: The Hokies have averaged 37.2 ppg during the winning streak, scoring 40-plus five times; they’ve allowed just 16.1 ppg during the streak, including holding seven straight opponents to 21 points or less (an average of 14.9 ppg); and they romped through the ACC campaign, going 8-0 (seven double-digit wins).
You also probably aren’t aware that Florida State backed into this ACC championship game. The Seminoles needed North Carolina State to lose at Maryland last week to get this berth, and the Wolfpack blew a 14-0 first-quarter lead and fell 38-31. And while the ‘Noles did follow up consecutive narrow losses to North Carolina State and North Carolina with three straight wins, they really only posted two quality wins all season, and both came against instate archrivals: 45-17 at Miami and last week’s 31-7 home rout of Florida.
Thing is, Miami and Florida had quarterback troubles all season long (and it’s the reason both are headed to lower-tier bowl games). Virginia Tech had no such issues under center. Senior Tyrod Taylor has been tremendous all season, completing 60.2 percent of his passes for 2,258 yards with 20 TDs and four INTs, while also compiling 613 rushing yards (second-best on the team) and four additional TDs (and he averaged a career-high 5.2 yards per rush).
I bring up Taylor because on the few occasions where Florida State has faced a top-notch quarterback this season, the Seminoles’ secondary has gotten smoked. Check this out:
North Carolina’s T.J. Yates (24-for-35, 439 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs), North Carolina State’s Russell Wilson (18-for-28, 178 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT; 69 rushing yard, 3 rushing TDs), and Oklahoma’s Landry Jones (30-for-40, 380 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INTs) combined to go 72-for-103 – that’s 70 percent! – for 997 passing yards with seven passing TDs, three rushing TDs and just one pick!
Those are some eye-popping stats right there, huh? Oh, and would it surprise you to know that those three QBs handed Florida State their three losses this season?
This pointspread is a joke, guys. Virginia Tech finishes what it started nearly three months ago and secures win #11 in a row and an ACC championship with a double-digit win in a high-scoring game.
SATURDAY'S ACTION
40 Dime college football release on WEST VIRGINIA minus the points against Rutgers in the Big East finale for both teams. The Mouataineers are a consensus 21-point favorite both here in Vegas and offshore. Monitor line moves in this contest, seeing that 21 can be a key number in college football. If you start to see it jump to 21½ in some spots, act quickly so you don’t get stouck with that hook; at the same time, if you see it start to drop to 20½, grab it.
15 Dime college football release on VIRGINIA TECH minus the points against Florida State in the ACC championship game from Charlotte. The Hokies are a consensus four-point favorite both here in Vegas and offshore, though I do so see one 3½ out here in Vegas. Monitor line meves in this game and if you see more 3½’s popping up, do your best to jump on it.
WEST VIRGINIA
Perfect situational play on the Mountaineers.
They come into this game against Rutgers off last Saturday’s 35-10 beatdown of archrival Pitt as a three-point road underdog, a victory that kept alive their Big East title (and BCS Bowl hopes). Meanwhile, Rutgers saw its bowl hopes go up in smoke with last week’s 40-13 home loss to Louisville as a 3½-point point underdog, the Scarlet Knights’ fifth straight loss (1-4 ATS), all in conference play.
West Virginia has won three in a row since back-to-back losses to Syracuse and UConn (in overtime) by a combined eight points, and those are the Mountaineers’ only two non-covers in their last nine games (7-2 ATS run). And even though WVA needs a win today and a UConn loss at South Florida to grab the league title, the good news is the UConn-South Florida game doesn’t kickoff till tonight, so it’s not like the Mountaineers will be scoreboard-watching and get depressed if they saw the Huskies up big.
West Virginia continues to field one of the nation’s top defenses, ranking second to TCU in points allowed (12.6 per game) and third behind TCU and Ohio State in yards allowed (255.7 per game). The Mountaineers have yielded exactly 10 points in each of the last three games; they’ve held seven straight opponents under 20 points (average of 11.6 ppg); and they haven’t given up more than 21 points all season.
Conversely, Rutgers has been held under 20 points five times in its last 10 games and has tallied more than 23 points just three times all season against Division I-A competition. And the Scarlet Knights’ defense has been atrocious down the stretch, giving up 109 points the last two weeks to Louisville and Cincinnati and surrendering an average of 38.2 ppg the last five weeks.
The Knights have lost 15 straight games to West Virginia and are winless in 15 all-time trips to Morgantown. Beyond that, West Virginia is 4-1 ATS in its last five at home (all as a favorite) and 5-1 ATS in its last six after either a SU or ATS win, and the winner has covered the spread in each of the Mountaineers seven games since the start of October (and the winner is 7-2 ATS in Rutgers’ last nine).
Bottom line: Motivation is huge at this juncture of the season, and this game means everything to West Virginia and absolutely nothing to freefalling Rutgers, which knows no matter what happens in this contest, its season is over today.
VIRGINIA TECH
You’re probably aware that Virginia Tech opened the season with a brutal last-minute loss to Boise State followed six days later by the ultimate hangover loss to Division I-AA James Madison (21-16 at home). You’re also probably aware that since then, the Hokies have ripped off 10 wins in row, bringing home the money in nine of those 10 games (with all nine spread-covers being double-digit routs).
Now let me clue you into a few things you might not know: The Hokies have averaged 37.2 ppg during the winning streak, scoring 40-plus five times; they’ve allowed just 16.1 ppg during the streak, including holding seven straight opponents to 21 points or less (an average of 14.9 ppg); and they romped through the ACC campaign, going 8-0 (seven double-digit wins).
You also probably aren’t aware that Florida State backed into this ACC championship game. The Seminoles needed North Carolina State to lose at Maryland last week to get this berth, and the Wolfpack blew a 14-0 first-quarter lead and fell 38-31. And while the ‘Noles did follow up consecutive narrow losses to North Carolina State and North Carolina with three straight wins, they really only posted two quality wins all season, and both came against instate archrivals: 45-17 at Miami and last week’s 31-7 home rout of Florida.
Thing is, Miami and Florida had quarterback troubles all season long (and it’s the reason both are headed to lower-tier bowl games). Virginia Tech had no such issues under center. Senior Tyrod Taylor has been tremendous all season, completing 60.2 percent of his passes for 2,258 yards with 20 TDs and four INTs, while also compiling 613 rushing yards (second-best on the team) and four additional TDs (and he averaged a career-high 5.2 yards per rush).
I bring up Taylor because on the few occasions where Florida State has faced a top-notch quarterback this season, the Seminoles’ secondary has gotten smoked. Check this out:
North Carolina’s T.J. Yates (24-for-35, 439 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs), North Carolina State’s Russell Wilson (18-for-28, 178 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT; 69 rushing yard, 3 rushing TDs), and Oklahoma’s Landry Jones (30-for-40, 380 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INTs) combined to go 72-for-103 – that’s 70 percent! – for 997 passing yards with seven passing TDs, three rushing TDs and just one pick!
Those are some eye-popping stats right there, huh? Oh, and would it surprise you to know that those three QBs handed Florida State their three losses this season?
This pointspread is a joke, guys. Virginia Tech finishes what it started nearly three months ago and secures win #11 in a row and an ACC championship with a double-digit win in a high-scoring game.
ATS EMail Bonus Play
Pittsburgh +2 over Cincinnati, 12pmET
The Pittsburgh Panthers will try to keep their BCS Bowl hopes alive this weekend, as they take on the Cincinnati Bearcats in Big East play at Nippert Stadium.
Pitt still has a lot to play for and its offense should be able to exploit Cincinnati's vulnerable defense.
ATS Consultants Predicted Outcome: Pittsburgh 34, Cincinnati 24
Pittsburgh +2 over Cincinnati, 12pmET
The Pittsburgh Panthers will try to keep their BCS Bowl hopes alive this weekend, as they take on the Cincinnati Bearcats in Big East play at Nippert Stadium.
Pitt still has a lot to play for and its offense should be able to exploit Cincinnati's vulnerable defense.
ATS Consultants Predicted Outcome: Pittsburgh 34, Cincinnati 24
