Derek Mancini
Tonight's Winner...
100 Dime play on Florida State as the underdog agaiast Virginia Tech. As this selectcion is being released at 1 am Eastern, the Seminoles are currently getting 4 points in most places with a few 3 1/2 out there. I want you to buy the hook on Florida State in this game if the line is anywhere from 3 1/2 to 4 1/2 points.
Think of FSU as a better/faster NC State. The key here is pressure, because if you blitz Tyrod Taylor, he’ll make you pay with the big play. However, FSU doesn’t need to blitz much against the Hokies, thanks to their outstanding defensive line, including stud DE’s Brandon Jenkins (12 sacks) and Markus White (7.5 sacks). Unfortunately for NC State, they forgot how to stop the run in their 41-30 loss to Virginia Tech earlier this season. But I suspect that won’t be a problem for DC Mark Staops and his tenacious run defense, allowing 122 rushing yards per game on just 3.6 yards/carry this season!
The best news for Florida State backers was watching the Seminoles pass offense hum like a well-oiled machine against a very good Florida defense last week. We all know FSU will likely be without 2 of their top 3 running backs tonight, but that won’t matter if the FSU o-line plays as well as it did against the Gators. Ponder had plenty of time, and better yet his receiving corps really shined, as sophomores Haulstead and Smith are complementing the veterans Reed and Easterling perfectly. Virginia Tech’s defense is strong against the pass, but they’re vulncerable against the run (allowing 4.9 yards/carry this season), which will help open things up for Ponder eventually. Don’t discount the FSU run game, as they still have a healthy and very talented Chris Thompson on the field. He’s their leading rusher, averaging a whopping 6.9 yards/carry!
My point is the Seminoles are well equipped to battle the Hokies, as their strengths (stopping the run, rushing the passer, and a balanced offense) match up well with Virginia Tech’s weaknesses. I got to be honest with you, besides their recent win over North Carolina, I have not that been imprelsed by the quality of opponents the Hokies have beaten. So what if they beat Virginia, Miami (with a freshman QB starting), Georgia Tech, Duke, Wake Forest, Central Michigan, Boston College, and East Carolina? They’re about to face their toughest match up since their season opener, in a Seminoles team that’s not only well suited to play them, but also firing on all cylinders.
The final factor to consider is the line movement, as about 60-70% of the bets are coming in on the Hokies, and yet we’ve seen this line gradually shrink to its current location. Classic reverse line movement and that can only be happening if the sharps are playing the Seminoles (and thus fading the public). All things considered, I don’t see more than a field goal separating these two teams. Take Florida State plus the points (remember to buy the insurance as instructed above) over Virginia Tech in Saturday’s ACC Championship Game.
Tonight's Winner...
100 Dime play on Florida State as the underdog agaiast Virginia Tech. As this selectcion is being released at 1 am Eastern, the Seminoles are currently getting 4 points in most places with a few 3 1/2 out there. I want you to buy the hook on Florida State in this game if the line is anywhere from 3 1/2 to 4 1/2 points.
Think of FSU as a better/faster NC State. The key here is pressure, because if you blitz Tyrod Taylor, he’ll make you pay with the big play. However, FSU doesn’t need to blitz much against the Hokies, thanks to their outstanding defensive line, including stud DE’s Brandon Jenkins (12 sacks) and Markus White (7.5 sacks). Unfortunately for NC State, they forgot how to stop the run in their 41-30 loss to Virginia Tech earlier this season. But I suspect that won’t be a problem for DC Mark Staops and his tenacious run defense, allowing 122 rushing yards per game on just 3.6 yards/carry this season!
The best news for Florida State backers was watching the Seminoles pass offense hum like a well-oiled machine against a very good Florida defense last week. We all know FSU will likely be without 2 of their top 3 running backs tonight, but that won’t matter if the FSU o-line plays as well as it did against the Gators. Ponder had plenty of time, and better yet his receiving corps really shined, as sophomores Haulstead and Smith are complementing the veterans Reed and Easterling perfectly. Virginia Tech’s defense is strong against the pass, but they’re vulncerable against the run (allowing 4.9 yards/carry this season), which will help open things up for Ponder eventually. Don’t discount the FSU run game, as they still have a healthy and very talented Chris Thompson on the field. He’s their leading rusher, averaging a whopping 6.9 yards/carry!
My point is the Seminoles are well equipped to battle the Hokies, as their strengths (stopping the run, rushing the passer, and a balanced offense) match up well with Virginia Tech’s weaknesses. I got to be honest with you, besides their recent win over North Carolina, I have not that been imprelsed by the quality of opponents the Hokies have beaten. So what if they beat Virginia, Miami (with a freshman QB starting), Georgia Tech, Duke, Wake Forest, Central Michigan, Boston College, and East Carolina? They’re about to face their toughest match up since their season opener, in a Seminoles team that’s not only well suited to play them, but also firing on all cylinders.
The final factor to consider is the line movement, as about 60-70% of the bets are coming in on the Hokies, and yet we’ve seen this line gradually shrink to its current location. Classic reverse line movement and that can only be happening if the sharps are playing the Seminoles (and thus fading the public). All things considered, I don’t see more than a field goal separating these two teams. Take Florida State plus the points (remember to buy the insurance as instructed above) over Virginia Tech in Saturday’s ACC Championship Game.
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